So with GP Richmond hitting ~4300 players this past weekend do you think that this will hurt or help legacy at all? Some possible points to consider/discuss:
- Moderns largest gp is almost twice that of legacy
- There were only 221 people overlapping from GP Vegas
- does this mean modern is growing or is it about location (east coast) the TO (SCG), or the timing (after a modern pro tour)?
- How many of these people crossed over from legacy?
- How many of these people can we get to move to legacy?
- Are these mega 4k+ gps the future? If so, should they be changed in anyway?
- Does the top 8/16 indicate a healthy format?
- Did the un/bans help or hurt?
Legacy:
Combo Elves
WB Tokens
Cheeri0s
The fact that Modern is a FNM supported format is huge. All the FNM grinders have semi-frequent Modern tourneys to attend on a large-scale level. And this isn't even including all of the GP Trials that are being run. All of this tourney support (FNM, GP Trials, GPs) from Wizards is incentivizing people to pickup Modern (not that difficult a month ago, moreso now with the dramatic price spikes in the last few weeks) and I believe that many people that have picked it up have liked it.
Personally, I have FNM Modern at my LGS and we get 30+ players regularly. We have a core group of a dozen that also play Legacy competitively, but there's almost no support for that format outside of SCG Opens, so we grind with Modern because that's where the competition is. I like Modern a lot too, so I enjoy playing the format that just so happens to have a bunch of constant competition for it whereas finding regularly run Legacy events (sans SCG Opens) is liking finding the Holy Grail.
It strikes me as odd that an event with that many players in a format this new would have so few archetypes in the top 16. Were those results pretty indicative of the format as a whole?
I think the biggest thing is the deep seeded emotional understanding that the right play is the right play regardless of outcomes. The ability to make a decision 5 straight times, lose 5 times because of it, and still make it the 6th time if it's the right play. - Jon Finkel
"Notions of chance and fate are the preoccupation of men engaged in rash undertakings."
My understanding is, Modern is at a place similar to Extended in the early 2000s. People who've been playing for a few years have access to most of the card pool (the relevant cards at least) and it's a strict upgrade to Standard whilst not being broken like the eternal formats. So people can transition to Modern staright from Standard without significantly changing their card pool or their understading/gaming experience of Magic. Obviously I think old Extended is 10 times more interesting than current Modern but that's out of topic. The bottom line is, the large numberof players are not surprising given these factors and the large population of Magic players in 2014.
Will this have an impact on Legacy? I doubt so. In my area Modern is still pretty much dead and events are having a hard time attracting players. There needs to be two things for Modern to negatively impact Legacy imo:
1) Legacy players start attending Modern events instead, reducing the number of Legacy regulars - Which I doubt could happen at a large enough scale because most Legacy players are dedicated eternal players.
2) Modern events start attracting so many players that they start replacing Legacy events - This is possible in the long term and may already be happening in some places but I think Modern's own internal dynamics (price bubbles, increasing availability issues for newcomers, bans etc.) will prevent this from happening for some time.
Legacy: Rituals
Vintage: Drains
With no weekly regulars (either FNM style, or SCG style) there is almost zero churn in new decks. Even your 'brewers' don't have enough events to brew in, the 'new' decks usually pop off online. More so than most formats people just pick up a 75 for the one time per quarter they are attending a modern event.
1. I think GP Richmond's enormous attendance figure has to do with the fact that it was SCG who organized the tournament, the fact that is happened right after a modern pro tour (meaning the format was still pretty open), and because it's spring break season so I'm sure many college kids who usually wouldn't be able to go were able to because they had spring break following the GP.
2. Judging from the results of this tournament, No. Pod took most of the Top 8 spots. We will see if Pod ends up being the new boogeyman but I wouldn't be surprised if it does since the pod decks have game against most modern decks and have a good balance of power and consistency better than most modern decks, something that any good magic deck has really. It's hard to talk about the health of the format with only two tournaments to glean data from though so we will see what happens.
3. They have both helped and hurt the format. Banning Deathrite Shaman clearly curbed GBx's dominance in the format. BUT all it may have done is allowed Pod to finally come to the fore as the best deck in modern. We will have to see. On another positive note, the unbanning of Wild Nacatl and Bitterblossom is positive because it enables new competitve archetypes, even if they are under performing relative to more established modern archetypes.
I don't get the popularity of Modern.
I understand the lack of popularity of Legacy, but not Modern.
Look at the Top 8, Twin + Affinity + Pod (TAP), with Pod x 5. Therefore, if your Modern deck cannot sweep Affinity infested board, you won't be fast enough. if your combo cannot be as consistent as Twin or Pod, your combo is not feasible, the format boils down to Combo A v.s. Combo B. If you dislike combo, the only option left is Affinity.
How could there be 4,000+ suckers for something like that?
That is not how Modern operates. For this particular tourney, maybe, but not for the format as a whole. Also, a major meta shift occurred very recently with bannings/unbannings, so the format still needs a bit of time to adjust.
Also, Twin and Pod, while having access to combo kills, is unique in that their combo relies on creatures, doesn't go off until turn 4 at earliest, and that allows a lot of back-and-forth interaction between both players during all phases of the game. Also, many MPod lists are primarily Junk value decks with a backup combo plan, so classifying MPod as strictly combo isn't accurate.
And I'm fine with pure aggro (Affinity) being represented, aggro/combo (MPod), and combo/aggro (KPod and Twin), combo/control (Scapeshift) being represented. I just wish pure control (UWR or Tron) was in there, but UWR took down PT Valencia just a couple weeks ago, so pure control is very much an archetype still.
That Is representative of a format as a whole. Are you trying to Undermine a 4,000+ players tournament, saying that is Not the format? World Series of Poker is about 6,000 players. Who are you kidding?
I have no problem classifying XYZ Pod as a combo deck. You can nip-pick all you want, that's your entitled opinion, but your excuse of arguing it otherwise is weak.
The biggest impact I see is SCG revisiting their tournament lineup to fit in Modern on Sundays. It makes sense for them and is just a matter of time. More cards being turned over and more players = more dollars. Modern FNMs, GPs, PTs and PTQs will ensure that the format sees a lot more play than legacy.
The biggest deal is that Wizards is committed to reprinting to keep prices down which will grow the modern player base. Legacy has a max which is capped by the number of dual lands. Modern won't have a cap.
I would suggest getting your modern mana base now (not fetches), if you haven't already.
It doesn't matter what the format is right now. Wizards is watching modern like a hawk. They are committed to reprinting/unbanning/banning to keep the format fresh and healthy.
After the format finishes shifting, due to the bannings/unbannings, if it's not good they will fix it. Unlike legacy.
Richmond got so many players because : Hype surrounding bannings/unbannings while no other major tournament was publicly played, a Pro tour showcasing the possibilities of the format had just ended, SCG themselves were running/promoting/supporting, and it was East coast. And SCG fully committed to increasing prizes, getting adequate space, guaranteeing playmats/promos, keeping up to date with prereg numbers, and keeping cards in stock.
The format was more wide open than what you saw at the top tables: In my 15 rounds with 1 bye, I played affinity the most at 4 times, 2 melira pod decks, 1 kiki pod, 1 tarmo-twin, 1 RW twin, 1 Bg midrange, 1 BGw midrange, 1 UR storm, 1 URW control, 1 UR twin. Affinity was picked up by a lot of players because it is considered 'easy', was relatively cheap, and extremely powerful. Other decks I saw at the higher tables of day 2 were: Faeries, merfolk, tron, scapeshift, big zoo, little zoo, gifts, burn...
You have to consider that there is a perceived best deck in pod/affinity and that pros are going to gravitate towards decks that give them extremely diverse decisions/answers at a low cost matchup wise (Melira pod) or a very powerful linear deck with several high level ways to gain edges on people that crushes those who stumble or when you have a good draw (Affinity/Twin).
The top 8 was more indicative of what the best people in the room decided how they'd want to attack the questions posed by the Pro tour, not really a good sample of what the diversity of the format is. When most of CFB is on Melira Pod and several other big names are on Affinity, you can expect those decks to place well.
Matt Bevenour in real life
I like how non-Modern players look at ONE Modern Top 16 and declare it to be the format. That's like some Standard kid looking at ONE Top 8 of a major Legacy tournament and declaring Legacy to be exactly that. Good stuff on thesource today.
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