I read an interesting article on finance, and it clearly shows the evolution of brewing to speculation. Here's what happened to me, a lowly brewer full of bad ideas... So, a brewer (like yours truly) claims card X (read: stock X) is better than other people think. You go into arguments with other magic players and they all disagree with you, in short: because netdeck/status quo. For instance: Who in their right mind would think Gamble is a good card right? Random clause -> bad card! All I see is 1 mana tutor for any card... Same reason why I love Entomb.
So, being the sad puppy that I am, and the tragedy of lacking someone that agrees with me when all I am looking for is some validation that I am at least partially correct, I look at the market. So, I turn to what I think is the one 'objective' measure that can satisfy my ego -> money :D. They say the market is always right, but if I can prove it wrong, I make some cash along the way. That's enough to sooth my ego... Now, I'm sitting on all these cards and I don't see money. Everytime I go through my cards each of my speculation targets remind me that I outsmarted the 'hive-mind', or I see a card who's time hasn't come yet according to me. I also see some cards that I was terribly wrong about. I testify, being a speculator is about loving to be right. It is purely ego driven.
So in the end, status quo thinking eventually sort of creates the 1% we all love to hate. Next time you start hating the have-everythings, realize that there is a lot you can learn from them if you try to listen. This goes both ways ofcourse, because the next card-pimp might be a crappy brewer like I used to be. The moral of the story is that public opinion feeds the super wealthy. I see the dynamics of magic finance as a simulation of the real world.
Here's the Original snippet that resonated with me:
If you own a stock that you think is worth $10 a share, and I also own that stock and I think it's worth $20 a share, I can try to convince you that I'm right. I can make predictions about the company's future prospects and earnings, and build a discounted cash flow model to prove that the stock really is worth $20. And you can make different assumptions about the future, and build different models, and try to convince me that $10 is the right number. But this is all kind of dumb. I should just pay you $12 for your shares. Then you get paid more than you think the stock is worth, and I get stock that I think is worth more than I paid, and we never have to discuss it. This is called the efficient markets hypothesis.1
This is such a good and pleasant way of avoiding discussion that it is the principal way that people in finance make arguments. Every once in a while a famous investor will rent out a ballroom and give a three-hour presentation about why a stock is going to go up (or down). But these presentations are actually relatively rare. Mostly when investors think a stock is going to go up, they buy the stock. The buying is the argument. You don't even need a ballroom.
What's going on here? This is not the first time you write how you are basically better than everybody in spending money on collectables.
Not sure of your position but you do realize that you are literally the guy(ette) who rents ballrooms?
Some of my friends sell records,
some of my friends sell drugs.
I've been on the down-low lately, this thread isn't so much about me as it is about the process explaining how speculators become speculators. I absolutely love the ballroom because I like an intellectual tete-a-tete about the cards, but people don't like to dance with me :-) That's why I mostly gave up on dancing. Every once in a while I go back to the dancefloor to see if my rusty bones still have some moves left. I am a ballroom fiend but speculating is easier than trying to convince people that will disagree regardless of what you have to say :) I close with these words: The buying is the argument.Originally Posted by Hopo
Isn't persuading people to follow you exactly what successful speculator should avoid in order to make more profit over time?
This kind of behaviour (trying to get people with you) kind of undermines the benefit of being ahead of others, don't you think?.
Some of my friends sell records,
some of my friends sell drugs.
But what's the fun of being ahead of others when you don't get to rub it in their faces..? Have you ever seen a sports team win some kind of cup and go "Meh, just another day at the office" and mosey on home to be back in time for dinner as if nothing happened? That'd be a first.
Besides - he says he looks for validation that he is right in some form or way. Getting people to follow you can be seen as some form of validation of that.
I have had this bruizar fellow in my ignore list since he argued 20+ pages about burn being non-linear deck.
Well, I don`t like it at all. Masturbatory hoarding of future staples to make money off of others players isn`t exactly good for the game or the community, and it`s kind of a cheap and hollow way to seek confirmation. But he`s a lot more honest with himself and others than most people are about using this game to feed his own ego. There`s a lot of that around, either in form of speculation, competitive play, elitism or pimping, and it`s usually not coupled with any self-awareness whatsoever. So respect for that.
I never said you had to like it. I know I don't.
I just find it lame to explain how he doesn't care about others' opinions anymore and in the meantime he starts a conversation just to get some attention or admiration or some other form of selfish recognition.
Some of my friends sell records,
some of my friends sell drugs.
No it isn't. The thread is the argument.
This thread is not about recognition at all. This thread is about explaining what motivates people to hoard. You don't just all-of-a-sudden decide to speculate on magic cards out of the blue. I'm trying to show you in a non-serious way that what motivated me to start speculating is actually a pretty common thing in finance or even art collecting. It isn't about money, it is about being right, and yes I realize that sounds bad :P
Havrekjex is right. It ain't a pretty trait but at least it is honest. Turns out, people that do have a lot cards are usually nice (For good reason!) and commited to the game / format. I know I've personally enabled many eternal players for years by lending out decks / cards to them.
Actually, your opening post explains what motivated YOU to hoard. I assure you that, for most people, it is about money. It's just that a lot of them are poor at identifying good cards to "invest" in.
Google says most cases of hoarding are tied to obsessive compulsive disorder.
"I've always had trouble throwing things away."
There are times when I see a new card spoiled and think "huh this seems like it'll be worth a lot" but then don't put my money where my mouth/thought is and go out and order a crapton the day it is spoiled. I was wrong about Bring to Light but am glad I only ordered a playset, that could have been much worse. I, like many others, didn't see the value of flip Jace for quite a while even after set release. Heck I was about to buy multiple playsets of Splinter Twin earlier this year cause it's such an obvious spike for the summer...god I'm thanking my laziness for not spending hundreds on that.
Most magic players are stubborn when it comes to the value of cards. It's like pulling teeth to even recommend cards for other people's decks at times - and I consider myself to be very polite and considerate when trying to go about it. Got a friend who wants to play a janky Elf/Food Chain combo deck for GP Columbus and I'm giving myself a gold star just because he finally put in some Deathrites after much arm-flailing from me. I'll give myself another star if he actually adds fetches and Bayous (which he has).
You think a new card, or an old card, is undervalued...it's way easier to just be bold about it and buy it up.
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