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Thread: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

  1. #81
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Oh how a month changes things! With some help from a busted new mechanic, of course.




    Again, suppressed results from lack of paper event, and so on. Computationally, we should be about 41 points. However, honestly, it doesn't seem, to me, that Omni is really dominating or doing much. So, I am going to cut to the top 8.

    4C Control (Snowko, Czech Pile and more!)
    Grixis Tempo
    RUG Delver
    Eldrazi Stompy
    ANT
    Patriot Delver
    BUG Delver
    Bomberman

    So, frame is intact, I will work throughout the day to update and move the threads.
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  2. #82
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Whoopsy-daisy, I forgot what day it was. The May update will come tomorrow morning, a little too late for me today to start it now.
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  3. #83
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    How do the results get categorized into archetypes?

    Looking back at last month, I assume that most of "Grixis Pyromancer", "Patriot Delver" and "BUG Delver" are the three variations of Lurrus Delver and "Bomberman" is mostly Zirda Combo.

    4C is interesting. I guess some of it would be Yorion Control, some would be regular companion-less Snowko, and some would be Miracles (including Lurrus Miracles), but it would be interesting to see the breakdown.

  4. #84
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    How do the results get categorized into archetypes?

    Looking back at last month, I assume that most of "Grixis Pyromancer", "Patriot Delver" and "BUG Delver" are the three variations of Lurrus Delver and "Bomberman" is mostly Zirda Combo.

    4C is interesting. I guess some of it would be Yorion Control, some would be regular companion-less Snowko, and some would be Miracles (including Lurrus Miracles), but it would be interesting to see the breakdown.
    Well, yeah, the results are still rather screwy, because Lurrus decks are still clouding results. The difference between Miracles and 4c is clear, if it has Miracle cards in there, it is Miracles and not 4c. 4c is what is left after that.




    The question is, what now? While Grixis and TA results were mainly fueled by the now banned Lurrus, even post post ban, Grixis has put up results. TA has not. So, I am inclined to cut TA. Our computational level should be about 37 points, but, like has been usual, our suppressed results has not given us much divergence. RUG Delver is in, along with Miracles, Infect, 4c and Lands. Now, "Fish" is actually Esper Vial and that clearly has enough points.

    Also, I am inclined to exclude Gyruda for the moment, until the deck demonstrates that it can win through the Companion rule change.

    RUG Delver
    Grixis Delver
    4c Control
    Miracles
    Infect
    R/G Lands

    We don't have a thread for a real Esper Vial deck. I could reuse Bahra's Spicy Popcorn thread, but that hardly is the same deck. Might just have to hold off on that deck while I work up a thread.

    Questions? Comments? Complaints? I will move threads around later today.
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  5. #85
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Well, I took a peak in and, wow, the data for June is ragged and sparse. I am inclined to not even bother drawing anything from it. Unless anyone has some compelling reason to, I think I will just hold off and update for July on August 7th.
    "The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
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  6. #86

    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    Well, I took a peak in and, wow, the data for June is ragged and sparse. I am inclined to not even bother drawing anything from it. Unless anyone has some compelling reason to, I think I will just hold off and update for July on August 7th.
    Makes sense. It's a real muddle, I was looking at mtgo goldfish, and they are back to throwing in a sprinkle of f-t-f and published mtgo results, so there's not even a clear picture (well, as clear as possible) of what's happening online.

  7. #87
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Alright, honestly, I dropped the ball. Data was ragged, data was low and frankly I forgot a couple times.

    But, new year, new process I am going to try. Since we are still in a low-data era and likely to stay in one, I am going to do a bi-monthly analysis for this year.

    So, with this new process (I had to manually merge the data), here is what the cutoff looks like with November and December 2020's data:

    4c Control 102 24º Infect 22
    Death and Taxes 95 25º Lands 21
    Other 83 26º Reanimator 21
    Temur Delver 68 27º Eldrazi Stompy 20
    Hogaak 66 28º Temur 19
    Elves 59 29º 4c Loam 17
    Red Prison 56 30º Turbo Depths 17
    Goblins 52 31º Jeskai 16
    Grixis Delver 40 32º Merfolks 15
    10º Ninjas 40 33º Dredge 14
    11º All Spells 39 34º UBx Shadow 14
    12º Aluren 38 35º Painters 13
    13º OmniTell 35 36º Pox 13
    14º Cephalid Breakfast 34 37º Sultai Delver 8
    15º Burn 33 38º Deadguy Ale 7
    16º Bant 32 39º Miracles 7
    17º 12 Post 31 40º Ad Nauseam Tendrils 6
    18º Mill 31 41º Bomberman 6
    19º Maverick 29 42º Enchantress 6
    20º Stoneblade 28 43º Esper Vial 6
    21º Doomsday 27 44º Grixis Control 6
    22º Izzet Delver 25 45º Lutri Deck 6
    23º Urza 23 Total: 1346
    Cutoff: 47.11

    So, this means we have 7 Decks to Beat:
    4C Control
    Death and Taxes
    RUG Delver
    Hogaak (Placeholder thread, seems we don't actually have a dedicated Hogaak thread?)
    Elves
    Dragon/Red/Moon Stompy
    Goblins

    I'll move the thread a little later today. Any comments welcome. Also if anyone knows a more appropriate thread for Hogaak, let me know.
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  8. #88
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Whoops, forgot what month it was. I should have an update out this week, with the combined data for January and February.
    "The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
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  9. #89
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    OK, here we go, the combined data for January and February of 2021. Obviously with Valki getting hit with the Cascade nerf-bat, I did not consider it, so we will take the other top 8 decks:

    Temur Delver 86 27º Turbo Depths 25
    Ninjas 77 28º Sultai 22
    Death and Taxes 70 29º Merfolks 21
    All Spells 61 30º Doomsday 19
    Valki Cascade 61 31º Mono Black 15
    Elves 57 32º Urza 15
    Aluren 56 33º Bomberman 14
    OmniTell 54 34º Mill 14
    Maverick 50 35º Hogaak 13
    10º 4c Control 49 36º Mono Blue 13
    11º Jeskai 47 37º Slivers 13
    12º Dredge 45 38º Buried Phoenix 9
    13º Stoneblade 45 39º Deadguy Ale 9
    14º Other 42 40º Tin Fins 9
    15º 12 Post 40 41º Sultai Delver 8
    16º Burn 40 42º UBx Shadow 8
    17º Bant 39 43º Esper Vial 7
    18º Turbo Depths 38 44º Food Chain 7
    19º Infect 36 45º Sneak and Show 7
    20º Eldrazi Stompy 34 46º The Epic Storm 7
    21º Red Prison 34 47º Jund 6
    22º Cephalid Breakfast 33 48º Landstill 6
    23º Izzet Delver 33 49º Mono Black Aggro 6
    24º Goblins 30 50º Pox 6
    25º Temur 30 51º Tibalt Cascade 6
    26º Reanimator 27

    Our cut-off here is 51 points, meaning that Maverick just makes it and 4C Control just misses.
    RUG Delver
    Ninjas!
    Death & Taxes
    Oops, All Spells!
    Elves!
    Aluren
    Omnitell
    Maverick

    As always, I welcome any comments, questions or concerns. Interesting results that, having not really looked into the data, would not quite have expected.
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  10. #90
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    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    Temur Delver 86 27º Turbo Depths 25
    Ninjas 77 28º Sultai 22
    Death and Taxes 70 29º Merfolks 21
    All Spells 61 30º Doomsday 19
    Valki Cascade 61 31º Mono Black 15
    Elves 57 32º Urza 15
    Aluren 56 33º Bomberman 14
    OmniTell 54 34º Mill 14
    Maverick 50 35º Hogaak 13
    10º 4c Control 49 36º Mono Blue 13
    11º Jeskai 47 37º Slivers 13
    12º Dredge 45 38º Buried Phoenix 9
    13º Stoneblade 45 39º Deadguy Ale 9
    14º Other 42 40º Tin Fins 9
    15º 12 Post 40 41º Sultai Delver 8
    16º Burn 40 42º UBx Shadow 8
    17º Bant 39 43º Esper Vial 7
    18º Turbo Depths 38 44º Food Chain 7
    19º Infect 36 45º Sneak and Show 7
    20º Eldrazi Stompy 34 46º The Epic Storm 7
    21º Red Prison 34 47º Jund 6
    22º Cephalid Breakfast 33 48º Landstill 6
    23º Izzet Delver 33 49º Mono Black Aggro 6
    24º Goblins 30 50º Pox 6
    25º Temur 30 51º Tibalt Cascade 6
    26º Reanimator 27
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  11. #91

    Re: Decks to Beat? (2020 edition)

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    TABLE
    Turbo Depths appears twice --- 18th place with 38 points and 27th place with 25 points.
    Presumably, either these are meant to be two different decks or Turbo Depths actually has 63 points and should be higher?

    Edit: There's also Valki Cascade at 5th place and Tibalt Cascade at the bottom of the table. Same deck?

  12. #92

  13. #93

    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Post MH2 win rates are varying wildly challenge to challenge. I think delver can be contained by Bant miracles, which got significantly powered up by endurance and prismatic ending.

    I think we are in a cyclical A. blue tempo (rug/ur delver) -> B. blue control (Bant) -> C. blue a+b (s&s/doomsday) -> A. tempo meta. Which is pretty healthy imo.

    Fair non-blue is doing quite well too in the B position (maverick/lands/elves) or c position (titanpost)

    Do people think I am correct? Do people like this or prefer brewing to beat an obvious best deck? Which deck can take advantage of this the best? How should one construct your sideboard?

    For example, curses is very favoured against C, very unfavoured vs A and around even vs B. Should I make it less bad vs A? Or concentrate flex’s on B. (Urza’s saga/choke/other control hate) and hope to delver is getting endurance’d to death?

  14. #94
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    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Whoops, I am real late on this. Kind of slammed here at work though, so I think I will just do a 4 month recap in July, catching all of March, April, May and June. Also, I'll try not to miss anything on the merged data.
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  15. #95
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    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    March, April, May, June 2021 merged:

    Izzet Delver 235 29º Tin Fins 37
    Death and Taxes 200 30º UBx Shadow 31
    Elves 189 31º Eldrazi Stompy 30
    Ninjas 150 32º 4c Loam 29
    Turbo Depths 121 33º Doomsday 29
    Reanimator 90 34º Landstill 28
    Miracles 85 35º Esper Vial 26
    OmniTell 85 36º Pox 23
    Maverick 68 37º Sultai 23
    10º Other 66 38º Grixis Delver 22
    11º Stoneblade 66 39º The Epic Storm 22
    12º Lands 65 40º Nic Fit 17
    13º Sneak and Show 65 41º 12 Post 16
    14º Temur Delver 64 42º Humans 16
    15º Food Chain 57 43º Mill 16
    16º Infect 54 44º MUD 15
    17º Burn 51 45º Esper 14
    18º Dredge 50 46º Slivers 14
    19º Painters 49 47º Bomberman 13
    20º All Spells 46 48º Deadguy Ale 13
    21º 4c Control 45 49º Jeskai 11
    22º Ad Nauseam Tendrils 41 50º Affinity 9
    23º Goblins 41 51º Jund 8
    24º Hogaak 40 52º Buried Phoenix 7
    25º Cephalid Breakfast 39 53º Enchantress 7
    26º Aluren 38 54º Merfolks 6
    27º Red Prison 38 55º Mono Black 6
    28º Grixis Control 37

    Oh boy, that was a good bit a data. Seemed fairly clear, aside the nebulous category of "Bant" which really were all Miracles decks, that just happen to run Green. So, with that merged, Miracles makes it (which makes perfect sense, really). Clean cut off too, 90.5 points, giving us a clear top 8. Sorry Maverick, (still love you).

    UR Delver
    Death & Taxes
    Elves!
    Ninjas
    Turbo Depths
    BR Reanimator
    Miracles
    Omnitell
    "The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
    Kaysa, Elder Druid of the Juniper Order

  16. #96

    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Is GW depths counted within Turbo Depths?

  17. #97
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    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Purple Blood View Post
    Is GW depths counted within Turbo Depths?
    Yeah, Turbo Depths is basically just a catch-all for all Depths decks, unfortunately. But we don't even have a thread for GW Depths here anway.
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  18. #98

    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    This is a pretty good summary of the format.

    I believe in paper decks like food chain and aluren are very good and should be grouped with 4c control

  19. #99
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    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    This is a pretty good summary of the format.

    I believe in paper decks like food chain and aluren are very good and should be grouped with 4c control
    It's been pretty hard to get really good data lately, TCDecks data is not very reliable, events are missing there and sometimes the classification is off.

    I am more than happy to reconsider how we do the Decks To Beat here, but what should we consider as a process? It's not clear to me how to "extract" it from the Data Collection program exactly. Any ideas? Or should we just move to a purely subjective system?
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  20. #100

    Re: Decks to Beat (2020-21) Discussion Thread

    Yah that was more of a subjective take, but since it was from one of the better grinders I thought it was wor th mentioning.

    If you are fine with the data collection project data you would just rank all the decks by the winrate CI min, which naturally takes into account sample size. Or if you believe tiers are popularity not power just rank it by play percentage. The time period could be anything you want.

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