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Thread: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

  1. #41
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    It should be in the interest and within the capacity of WotC (incompetence notwithstanding) to continue to provide both.
    The current thinking about Hasbro is probably to sack the money reserved for tournaments for more profit from WotC. Instant greed, no long-term plan.

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    So, the analogy falls apart pretty quick there. The point though is perfectly logical for Wizards to drop an idea of "unmitigated" growth of the player base and focus in on expanding the already existing base's spending. As long as the player numbers stay reasonably stable, this plan likely generates more revenue over time. If numbers drop though, a shift to a "new player" focused strategy likely would because a priority.
    Sounds exactly like what they're doing right now, given the ever-increasing number of premium products, especially expensive Secret Lairs, to grow their revenue.

  2. #42

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    The current thinking about Hasbro is probably to sack the money reserved for tournaments for more profit from WotC. Instant greed, no long-term plan.
    Yeah but this is so unbelievably myopic I can't even believe hasbro execs are that moronic
    Like it can't be that hard to run the numbers on how much money there is to be made from a GP

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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    All the people who are unironically proposing "Well I guess it could be correct for WotC to totally drop any competitive support and just focus on making cards for commander players" are suggesting exactly this, no?
    That really depends on what "focus" means. To me, a focus does not have a default absolutist meaning though necessarily. If, say 50% of players are Commander-centric players (just to make up a number), 25% are casual-only and 25% are competitive, then it surely makes sense to "focus" products to this demographic skew, by matching your releases to, say, match that 50% skew in "focused" product. To default to the idea that, in essence, since the largest segment is is the 50% that 100% of product should be catered toward it makes no real sense of course. But I don't think "focus" absolutely must have that meaning. If someone really is suggesting that, they should rightly be criticized, I think.

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    Isn't this the more useful / realistic way of looking at it? The point of the analogy is that the Prius is just one subset of the company's offerings (like commander is just 1 subset of MTG offerings)
    (Prius is to Commander, as a Car is to MTG, in this analogy)
    Well, yes, only so many people are going to buy into Magic as a whole and less of them into Commander, of course. The point of course is to "match" your product offers to your market segments, but only to some degree. You simply, of course, cannot match it 100%, because then you have product made for everyone which is actually for no one.

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    The whole point of the argument that Sperling is making is that if you drop the Pro Tour offering then you create that dip in player numbers, because all of your "Lexus buyers" disappear. They don't magically decide to become "Camry buyers". they just find what they are looking for elsewhere. It should be in the interest and within the capacity of WotC (incompetence notwithstanding) to continue to provide both.
    Well, here we lapse to an absolutist take again though. Dropping the Pro Tour mean all the premium (presumably "competitive?") buyers disappear? I'd really need to see some sort of data on this, because it does not strike me as being self-evident in the slightest. In fact, I am more apt to back the null hypothesis here, that the Pro Tour as no measurable effect on "premium sales" at all. Now, I actually don't think that is strictly true, but I think it is much closer to the case (in other words, only a small measurable effect) than to the idea that all "premium sales" are derivative of the Pro Tour.

    However, we should note that organized play is not gone and not going away. GP/PT style events are not going away, so competitive play is not going away. So the idea would actually have to be that Pro Players themselves (or maybe we could make a case for a general "Pro Play") are the sole driver. Again, seems unlikely to me and I am apt to consider a null hypothesis as more likely than anything else there (although, again, likely not strictly the case). Of course, the proof will be in the pudding and frankly nothing here will be chiseled into stone. It isn't as if Wizards has not proven perfectly willing to make a change only to change it again in short order (remember two set blocks?).

    As always, I am not claiming I know Wizards thinking, or can predict the future as a matter of facts. My aim is, as always, to be skeptical of any and all positions, be it Wizard's, Hasbro's, mine, or other's. I just aim to investigate the seeming plausibility of all sides.
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    The current thinking about Hasbro is probably to sack the money reserved for tournaments for more profit from WotC. Instant greed, no long-term plan.
    While I loath Hasbro, because they are a fairly terrible company that seems to fail fairly regularly, I kind of doubt this is strictly the case. More likely, from what I have read, I think the aim is to stop subsiding the pipe-dream "Pro Player lifestyle" (which was probably never realistic, never sustainable and likely near-poverty wages anyway) to toss some more into larger-seeming "winnings" for each event. While this might be a net-put-out of less money from WotC, it "looks better" since the payout of events is higher. While I have zero doubt the aim is some form of corporate greed, this new plan may well actually server the purpose of GP/PT style competitive play better, realistically.

    We always have to consider that any of us, here, talking about this are necessarily biased, even just by virtue of being here and discussing this.

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    Sounds exactly like what they're doing right now, given the ever-increasing number of premium products, especially expensive Secret Lairs, to grow their revenue.
    Indeed, if you want you can dredge up some of my old posts where I have gone over this before, but that rather irrelevant. I am no soothsayer and I have zero "special" knowledge, I just think the "plan" is quite evident from even just the observable behavior. I would say though, we should likely expect something cyclical though, where once the "cash-in" plan peters out, there will be an "expand the player base" effort put forth again. How long are the cycles? Who knows. Can I guarantee there will be cycles? No, just seems likely to me. But can we really see 10 years into the future. No, I surely cannot and I couldn't 10 years ago either. While something like the EPS cycle is not an actual law or rule, it does help to frame some of the seeming movements. We can only await next stage though, of course.
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  5. #45
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    While I loath Hasbro, because they are a fairly terrible company that seems to fail fairly regularly, I kind of doubt this is strictly the case. More likely, from what I have read, I think the aim is to stop subsiding the pipe-dream "Pro Player lifestyle" (which was probably never realistic, never sustainable and likely near-poverty wages anyway) to toss some more into larger-seeming "winnings" for each event. While this might be a net-put-out of less money from WotC, it "looks better" since the payout of events is higher. While I have zero doubt the aim is some form of corporate greed, this new plan may well actually server the purpose of GP/PT style competitive play better, realistically.
    My assumption is that some Hasbro suits saw that this "eSports" thing is a cash cow and Magic (and also D&D in their mind, wtf?) is fitting the bill for that. Hence the whole eSports push, including buying a ridiculous number of bots to push viewership numbers of the streams. From my observation, the non-bot viewership stayed roughly the same. And nobody gave a shit about the MPL. Hence them now burying the whole eSports thing again after seeing it isn't that easy to print cash with it.

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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    My assumption is that some Hasbro suits saw that this "eSports" thing is a cash cow and Magic (and also D&D in their mind, wtf?) is fitting the bill for that. Hence the whole eSports push, including buying a ridiculous number of bots to push viewership numbers of the streams. From my observation, the non-bot viewership stayed roughly the same. And nobody gave a shit about the MPL. Hence them now burying the whole eSports thing again after seeing it isn't that easy to print cash with it.
    Oh boy, don't get me started. I really hate the whole misbegotten conception of "eSports" but let me not drag my bias on that into the here and now.

    But broadly I agree, it was a ham-handed attempt and I really doubt it had the effect they hoped it might. Magic, while wildly "popular" is still a very niche game that only some people will really care about. While it was likely "worth" a try to boot-strap it into a LoL or whatever game the kids watch people stream nowadays, it's just not that and it isn't going to become that regardless of how "flashy" you try to make it with effects in Arena or fireworks when they announce some player's name (or whatever they were doing, I really didn't watch much).

    Here is a somewhat interesting article on this whole thing, but I'm not quite sure what to make of it. I don't really see anything incorrect in it, but I think it might still be some biased thinking. Not that this makes it bad, it's not hiding the bias so it's a good look at what a former pro makes of it.
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  7. #47

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    My assumption is that some Hasbro suits saw that this "eSports" thing is a cash cow and Magic (and also D&D in their mind, wtf?) is fitting the bill for that. Hence the whole eSports push, including buying a ridiculous number of bots to push viewership numbers of the streams. From my observation, the non-bot viewership stayed roughly the same. And nobody gave a shit about the MPL. Hence them now burying the whole eSports thing again after seeing it isn't that easy to print cash with it.
    They probably went for esports as part of their plan to enter the market that Hearthstone created. While their esports stuff certainly didn't interest me, I am also willing to admit that I am not the type of player that WOTC cares about, and I don't think they are stopping it because it isn't printing cash, since wotc is doing better than ever now. Whatever their esports thing is now was basically their first attempt when they had no idea what they were doing, and they probably just think they can print even more cash doing something else now.

    I think competitive play is sort of like fashion shows, or the space program. Not entirely practical at first glance but they facilitate so much 'growth' elsewhere that they are worth it. Their role is to allow people who are motivated and focused to work on puzzles that wouldn't normally be looked at that trickle down in application to everyone else. In magic terms probably, pro magic provides a kind of innovation that casual players cant exactly spend time on figuring out themselves, it gives them an option to look at blueprints and make their own modifications. It is a good way to keep casual fresh without it devolving completely into tribal battle cruiser gameplay.

    I haven't paid attention to any of the current pro play stuff but I thought their pro play was more successful in the past, when teams (that were often sponsored by card stores) competed for points on top of individual season rankings. The big issue is in having a 'tour' when most people aren't willing to fund a trip around the world for teams playing at various locales, I think this was why WOTC stopped the old model because they didn't want to fly people out to pro tours anymore. I think right now Hasbro is more content of cultivating the consumer routine of churning new product as fast as the consumers are willing to buy it, and it isn't exactly clear how pro play leads into that, especially considering commander is probably the de facto casual format now.

  8. #48
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    I think Magic coverage as a whole got alot less interesting in the past few years, I just can't put my finger onto the exact thing. Production value probably went up (hard to tell, given WotC's number of fuck-ups and technical imcompetence), but at the end of the day, it didn't really improve the experience. I also found the whole winner/loser bracket thing alot less engaging than a clear-cut elimination Top 8. Instead of being on the edge since everything counts, it's a long, drawn-out snooze fest where things matter alot less.

  9. #49

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Just saying, alot of casual players also follow the pro-scene.
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Barook View Post
    I think Magic coverage as a whole got alot less interesting in the past few years, I just can't put my finger onto the exact thing. Production value probably went up (hard to tell, given WotC's number of fuck-ups and technical imcompetence), but at the end of the day, it didn't really improve the experience. I also found the whole winner/loser bracket thing alot less engaging than a clear-cut elimination Top 8. Instead of being on the edge since everything counts, it's a long, drawn-out snooze fest where things matter alot less.
    I think the exact thing was when they decided only Standard would be highlighted. I think, but I can't verify, that their best rated events for viewership where Modern and Legacy. New players seem to like playing Standard (if you listen to WOTC) but they seem to *love* watching older, more powerful formats, even if they don't play those formats.

    Another part of what makes magic coverage so boring is that WOTC doesn't do a very good job of it, and the formats were full of problems. We've seen so many cards banned out of Standard in recent years. SCG for all of it's peccadillos covered exciting events. I think I can make a decent argument that the end of the SCG legacy events was a big hit to eternal format development.
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    [url=https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/zvimowshowitz-05172021-the-pro-tour-was-magic]
    YIKES. That was a ride.
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    I just assume it's because I'm an idiot, but I don't understand the connections people are making between this end of MPL or whatever it is and the game itself.
    Like just being able to play in tournaments, generally in increasing skills (demonstrable in REL) is what playing the game is. Prize support is very helpful in making a large tournament successful, and I guess eventually you start entering the realm of invite only levels where you're excused from playing off the street players. Typically the 2 or 3 round byes of a 9 round day 1 event served the same end, players could count on showing up and only playing those who have risen above the median play skill.

    From what I've have told to me, the MPL did none of that. The people who were in it were already elites and they were playing just to maintain their status in some entertainment based sink or swim style subsistence model. But that really didn't have anything at all to do with the game itself, right? Honestly asking because I don't know. Was there a MPL set, or cards, or something, that will change in the next set because these people won't be subsidized for playing the game?

    Like, okay, not having the Pro Tour is shitty because it genuinely offered a path that, hey, if you're good enough, the best, here's where you'll end up. I mean even if it's once, that seems neato. But that's been gone for a while now. So all this talk in the last week about how the Pro Tour is no more doesn't make sense to me. And the idea of, here, if you're better than most at Magic, here is a full time job for lackluster pay and shit longevity and zero security. That's a shit deal and the fact that it isn't available anymore is who cares?

    So is there any impact to be anticipated on the game itself, in the form of the next standard set or some other, tangible game piece level?

    I read the linked article three times now, I have no idea what he is saying. Pro Tour good?
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  13. #53

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateKing View Post
    I just assume it's because I'm an idiot, but I don't understand the connections people are making between this end of MPL or whatever it is and the game itself.
    Like just being able to play in tournaments, generally in increasing skills (demonstrable in REL) is what playing the game is. Prize support is very helpful in making a large tournament successful, and I guess eventually you start entering the realm of invite only levels where you're excused from playing off the street players. Typically the 2 or 3 round byes of a 9 round day 1 event served the same end, players could count on showing up and only playing those who have risen above the median play skill.

    From what I've have told to me, the MPL did none of that. The people who were in it were already elites and they were playing just to maintain their status in some entertainment based sink or swim style subsistence model. But that really didn't have anything at all to do with the game itself, right? Honestly asking because I don't know. Was there a MPL set, or cards, or something, that will change in the next set because these people won't be subsidized for playing the game?
    Most people are not suggesting the end of the *MPL* signals the end of the game (at least for those individuals), people are either questioning (in the absence of any concrete details) whether the next competitive WotC offering will be compelling enough to the competitive players, or people are entertaining the hypothetical that any kind of competitive tournament support essentially disappears. (I.e. the consequence of what happens if all of PT/GP etc level events are effectively eliminated, not only the MPL)

    Like, okay, not having the Pro Tour is shitty because it genuinely offered a path that, hey, if you're good enough, the best, here's where you'll end up. I mean even if it's once, that seems neato. But that's been gone for a while now. So all this talk in the last week about how the Pro Tour is no more doesn't make sense to me. And the idea of, here, if you're better than most at Magic, here is a full time job for lackluster pay and shit longevity and zero security. That's a shit deal and the fact that it isn't available anymore is who cares?
    The paper PT itself has only been gone because of the suspension of in-person play due to covid. We have still had set championships etc on arena which you can qualify for through PTQs on MTGO etc this entire time. People are speculating that if WotC are not budgeting for the MPL anymore (and there is no pathway to qualify to be on it through the rivals league etc) what will happen to the structure of the competitive play system. Will they reallocate that money back to bigger prizes for GP-style events in paper? Will they decide that it's not worth the hassle? If they don't bring back this level of support will a bunch of people quit? These are the kinds of questions that frame the discussion, not "boohoo the MPL is gone". Almost everybody agrees that the MPL was shit except for the people who were actually salaried members of it.

    So is there any impact to be anticipated on the game itself, in the form of the next standard set or some other, tangible game piece level?
    No, but nobody has even suggested anything like this

  14. #54

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    The issue is that larger prize pools imply higher entry fees, and I don't know how appealing something like a $250 entry fee for a GP on top of a $10-20 entry fee for the MagicFest itself would be. They could turn the old PTQ into the GPQ with first place awarding the GP entry fee, but I would prefer Wizards just get out of organized play and let the stores handle it themselves.

    They are definitely not reallocating the money to anything that doesn't keep Hasbro shareholders happy. (WotC as we know it was effectively changed into a subdivision of Hasbro called "Wizards and Digital" so it's more direct now who is really in charge.)

  15. #55
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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateKing View Post
    I just assume it's because I'm an idiot, but I don't understand the connections people are making between this end of MPL or whatever it is and the game itself.
    The way I read this and understand it is that it will not change or have any influence on the way I play Magic. Someone can confirm that? Or do I have to jump on the 'end of the world' bandwagon?

  16. #56

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace/Homebrew View Post
    The way I read this and understand it is that it will not change or have any influence on the way I play Magic. Someone can confirm that? Or do I have to jump on the 'end of the world' bandwagon?
    To be fair, it probably didn't change or have any influence on how you played magic when it was still around too because no one cared about the MPL.

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    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    [url=https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/zvimowshowitz-05172021-the-pro-tour-was-magic]
    That article was maximum cringe. Simply incredible. And check out this comment by Michael Flores:

    Someone: "The Pro Tour was a playground for the privileged. Let’s focus on opening the gates and letting more people play."

    Weird statement, but ok. Michael blesses us with this amazing response:
    "How do you figure? My generation (just a tad older than Zvi) was a spawing ground for complete and utter excellence across a dizzying breadth of disciplines."

    You can't make this stuff up.

  18. #58

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Wrath of Pie View Post
    The issue is that larger prize pools imply higher entry fees, and I don't know how appealing something like a $250 entry fee for a GP on top of a $10-20 entry fee for the MagicFest itself would be. They could turn the old PTQ into the GPQ with first place awarding the GP entry fee, but I would prefer Wizards just get out of organized play and let the stores handle it themselves.

    They are definitely not reallocating the money to anything that doesn't keep Hasbro shareholders happy. (WotC as we know it was effectively changed into a subdivision of Hasbro called "Wizards and Digital" so it's more direct now who is really in charge.)
    The failure of pro play most likely has much more to do with their incompetence than pro play not being valuable. I doubt WOTC has discovered something that nobody else knows, there is a reason all of the popular games have form of pro play in place. Right now they are doing this weird thing where they want to keep secondary market prices high so they can sell their premium product for lots of money, but that in turn makes the formats with those cards too expensive to play, so they only showcase standard and whatever extra formats they have come up with like historic/ pioneer/ brawl because true eternal formats are too expensive, which hurts their ability to market their game. High prize pools doesn't necessarily need to translate to higher entry fees, they could adopt a system like other esports (like valve games) where there are store run/ online tournaments (with regular sized prize pools) that feed into wotc sponsored major events where the big prizes are funded in some way through crowd funding via premium product like secret lair and collectors edition products.

  19. #59

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by phonics View Post
    The failure of pro play most likely has much more to do with their incompetence than pro play not being valuable. I doubt WOTC has discovered something that nobody else knows, there is a reason all of the popular games have form of pro play in place.
    agree

    Right now they are doing this weird thing where they want to keep secondary market prices high so they can sell their premium product for lots of money, but that in turn makes the formats with those cards too expensive to play, so they only showcase standard and whatever extra formats they have come up with like historic/ pioneer/ brawl because true eternal formats are too expensive, which hurts their ability to market their game.
    This isn't even necessarily true even with formats that are expensive, the attendance for GP bologna (legacy, ~1500) was way higher than the subsequent 3 standard GPs which were all about 500 players each

    High prize pools doesn't necessarily need to translate to higher entry fees, they could adopt a system like other esports (like valve games) where there are store run/ online tournaments (with regular sized prize pools) that feed into wotc sponsored major events where the big prizes are funded in some way through crowd funding via premium product like secret lair and collectors edition products.
    Good idea

  20. #60

    Re: WotC Ending Pro Play Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post

    This isn't even necessarily true even with formats that are expensive, the attendance for GP bologna (legacy, ~1500) was way higher than the subsequent 3 standard GPs which were all about 500 players each
    Yeah the gps are great but I think specifically for pro level events like the pro tour Maro said he didn't want legacy as a pro tour format because of card availability issues. I think he said this 5-6 years ago, when underground seas were only ~275$. At this point some modern decks might be pushing close to what the average legacy deck cost back then. Since then they only have had one pro tour event that had legacy as a format, and that was part of the 25 anniversary team event. Its like a thing where viewers love eternal formats, pros love them too, but wotc didn't because it was advertising a product they weren't selling, but maybe that will change.

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