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Thread: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks?

  1. #181
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    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Is an Undergroudn Sea 100 times better than a Watery Grave?
    Y/N
    When there's a 1000$ prize at the end of the tunnel, you will want that sea 99.99% of the time, unless you want to play death shadow, which by the end of the tunnel, they have a 0.01% of getting that far into a big tournament.

  2. #182
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    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    People have the odd idea that the people making business decisions at the top are all subject to the peter principle and are therefore making the de facto wrong decisions. On average this is far from the truth. You have a successful outlet of a successful company that is making intelligent business decisions. Take whatever razor you want to the question of why haven't they obsoleted or got rid of the RL. For whatever reason, either legal, effort, marketing, production it is safe to assume they held a hundred meetings with their C-Level suite, their lawyers and whatever and decided that it would cost more to obsolete or get rid of the RL than they could make reprinting those cards or making just as good or better. If its such a low-hanging money making fruit that we are discussing it, better believe they had that discussion as well and after such discussion they decided not to do it.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Safety View Post
    You sir are a ninja of fine quality.

  3. #183

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by KobeBryan View Post
    When there's a 1000$ prize at the end of the tunnel, you will want that sea 99.99% of the time, unless you want to play death shadow, which by the end of the tunnel, they have a 0.01% of getting that far into a big tournament.
    Thatís actually wrong. Assuming that the EV of the event is as generous as a mtgo 100 man challenge (unlikely since wizards can print chests for free), you can estimate how big the prize pool has to be for it to make sense.

    Goatboats has the prize pool for those at 3300$ for a 30$ entry. Your expected prizes go up from 60$ to 63$ when you win rate goes from 60% to 61%. A sea costs 2500$ more than a watery grave. Assuming each sea raises your win rate by at least 1% (very unlikely), it takes 236 events to break even on 4 of them. Ie over the life of your deck compete for 780 000$ in prizes at 60% or better win rate.

    If you are playing in a 1k, paying 10000$ to win on average 3.7$ more isnít very rational.

    Edit:math

  4. #184

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by KobeBryan View Post
    When there's a 1000$ prize at the end of the tunnel, you will want that sea 99.99% of the time, unless you want to play death shadow, which by the end of the tunnel, they have a 0.01% of getting that far into a big tournament.
    Correct, I want it more but is it 100 times better? To justify the price tag I need to be earning $998 more than had I run Watery Grave instead.

  5. #185
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    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    Thatís actually wrong. Assuming that the EV of the event is as generous as a mtgo 100 man challenge (unlikely since wizards can print chests for free), you can estimate how big the prize pool has to be for it to make sense.

    Goatboats has the prize pool for those at 3300$ for a 30$ entry. Your expected prizes go up from 60$ to 63$ when you win rate goes from 60% to 61%. A sea costs 2500$ more than a watery grave. Assuming each sea raises your win rate by at least 1% (very unlikely), it takes 236 events to break even on 4 of them. Ie over the life of your deck compete for 780 000$ in prizes at 60% or better win rate.

    If you are playing in a 1k, paying 10000$ to win on average 3.7$ more isnít very rational.

    Edit:math
    I don't think its possible to put a quantitative data on something where in a match with some thing going down the wire, where 1 life matters, you can justify not using underground sea over watery grave.

    When you need the win you have to make that sacrifice. Its more than just calculating whether you would get a Rate of return on the card. And if you win a top GP of the year with YOUR custom decklist, you are able to be a top quality streamer making content. There's more intangibles than meets the eye.

  6. #186
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    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Just calculate the costs of each deck prior to tournament and have a weighted handicap system
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Safety View Post
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  7. #187

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Cire View Post
    Just calculate the costs of each deck prior to tournament and have a weighted handicap system
    Finally, I can go mono-Island and get somewhere!

  8. #188

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by Wrath of Pie View Post
    Finally, I can go mono-Island and get somewhere!
    4 Countryside Crusher + 56 Mountains.

  9. #189

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Like even if you think an Underground Sea isn't a luxury good, which is wrong, surely you have to recognize that Beta and even Unlimited ones are, right? There's no extra utility over an HP Revised one so why you paying somewhere between twice and ten times as much?
    Sure, the point is that Dom P company puts new bottles of Dom P on the shelves every day (even if it's not very many) and so does Gucci etc etc. Can (does) WotC do this with dual lands? No. So obviously the same principles don't apply. That's all Im saying. I'm not trying to suggest a beta lotus is a sensible, practical purchase for a struggling family of 4 or something

    No it doesn't. De Beers is hyping diamonds so it can sell diamonds generically, the types of diamonds it displays in commercials are actually usually way bigger than the diamonds it actually sells for instance. Hyping products it's no longer even selling is still part of LV's brand management.
    In this sense I used "hyping" as a synonym for 'keeping the price high through artificial scarcity' rather than 'advertising' but I see how that would have been confusing. Regardless:

    Wizards hypes cards so it can sell cards. The fact that it can point to the luxury old card market and showcase cards going for hundreds or thousands (or in a few cases hundreds of thousands) dollars helps it manage its brand and helps it hype up "Magic cards," even without it currently selling those exact same Magic cards. Because as far as Wizards is concerned it's all fungible.
    If you think you are making a good point here you are just not living in reality. WotC doesn't official acknowledge the existence of RL cards basically at all. They certainly don't tweet about ebay prices or things like that. They don't put black lotus or other RL in their ads (the "big diamond" analogue) or even talk about them at all really. The closest thing you can get to is examples from Magic Online like vintage cube and eternal weekend events. And even if you were to make the argument that these are examples of a genuine effort by WotC to 'hype' the existence of the RL cards, to what effect does it have? On MTGO where they can print as many copies as they want? Does that kind of thing generate interest in standard sets (the thing that you insist is the only thing that they care about)?

    Again Ronald Deuce already also said it (and the rest of their post is also correct):
    I can acknowledge that there are luxury items that are RL cards. That doesn't mean anyone's demonstrated that the RL makes the cards on it luxury goods purely because they're on the RL (cf. Seas with Rysorian Badgers), nor that non-RL cards are NOT luxury items because they're not on the RL (e.g. Imperial Seal), nor that this "line" of luxury goods is being sold (it isn't), nor that there's a comparable product or line that's being sold through the advertisement/hype-building/whatever of RL cards (there isn't, except maybe specific old-bordered Secret Lair Signet type stuff, though I doubt that's particularly relevant for a number of reasons), nor (most crucially) that RL cards are being used to advertise or build demand for anything at all.
    Therefore ideas like the following statement just don't make any sense:
    Except that if it does a Lair set of full art original Moxen it runs a risk of impacting that secondary market and lowering its value which lowers its brand.
    I mean guildgates were an extreme example. Morphic Pool and Watery Grave and Polluted Delta don't go for hundreds of dollars but they are worth way more than scraps of cardboard cost to make. And it's not even about manabases in particular. Why are people willing to pay $70 for Ragavan or Sword of Hearth & Home? It's partially a desire to play with the cards but a large part is the belief that these cards will hold value.
    True, but why does the belief that Ragavan will hold value have anything to do with the reserved list? The card is not on the reserved list. People understand that even for cards not on the reserved list WotC doesn't print them into oblivion because it's not in WotC interest to do so. It doesn't have anything to do with the existence of the reserved list. This is not a good argument

    Let's go back to De Beers. Why do you think they work so hard to discredit lab-created diamonds? Why aren't they interested in increasing the supply of much bigger diamonds- which they could, pretty easily?
    The WotC equivalent of discrediting lab-created diamonds is them discrediting counterfeit cards (substitutes of their product which they don't have essentially monopolistic control of the supply) and wotc does do this.

    I assume the argument you are making about 'big diamonds' is that De Beers doesn't produce more big diamonds because either:
    1) Having big diamonds be really cool/scarce makes the demand for the small diamonds higher: we have already established that this point makes no sense because wotc doesn't actually use its "big diamonds" in any form of marketing / advertising. (We could have a discussion about whether that would be an effective strategy but the fact stands that it's currently not happening).
    2) Having big diamonds be really cool/scarce makes the demand/price for the big diamonds higher: this also makes no sense in the mtg context because wotc is not currently producing/selling ANY "big diamonds"

    I mean it doesn't have to make sense, the point is to boost public confidence not to actually create a safeguard for the public. In fact if you can do the former without doing the latter that's preferable.

    Yes Wizards can just print more Ragavans any time it wants and drop their price to nil. Ignoring that they have strong incentives to not do this, or at least not do it cavalierly, what incentive does the public paying $300 a playset have to believe that they won't do this? Only the perception that Wizards doesn't do that kind of thing.
    Yes, but that perception is independent of the RL existing

    Yes it's just an illusion and sleight of hand to act like the Reserve List is any guarantor of the value of new cards, but it does still affect perception of Wizards and their philosophy towards reprinting valuable cards.
    This only makes sense if you assume that the playerbase is totally braindead.

    Here's a challenge for you: can you explain why wotc doesn't put Ragavan onto the reserved list? Surely that would result in the maximum amount of player confidence regarding its lasting value. I don't think you will be able to justify wotc not doing this without contradicting yourself.

    That's not a strawman, that's reductio ad absurdum, which is not a logical fallacy. It's a legitimate question you need to address. Why shouldn't we take this principle to its extreme?
    All I'm suggesting is that it is in wotc interest to treat its "luxury" reserved list cards the same way that it treats its other "luxury" non-RL cards (fetchlands or imperial seal or whatever).
    Is there currently a flood of these cards being printed all the time? No. So why are you trying to argue against the idea of printing RL cards on that basis?

    Why does Wizards care? Because of how it affects the perceived value of peoples' big boxes of cardboard that are fundamentally close to worthless but go on the market for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Which in turn affects how willing people are to continue paying big money for Magic product.
    Again, the idea that people use the reserved list (even subconsciously) to support a belief that their modern-era non-RL printings have lasting value is just utter nonsense

    [All the talk about risk vs reward]
    - The only risk (assuming the legal basis/foundation of the reserved list is nonexistent and therefore no risk of litigation) that you have identified is this vague idea of loss of brand prestige or loss of trust in the company and I think the people in this thread have done a pretty good job of explaining why that either wouldn't happen or doesn't matter. (Obviously huge collectors or shoestring-budget legacy players that already bought in would be upset about it but the net amount of goodwill from the wider playerbase from making the game more accessible would outweigh that I think).
    - Even if the monetary upside is small, so are any other of WotC individual product offerings. The idea that they shouldn't do it because it wouldn't double Hasbro revenue overnight is idiotic

    People have the odd idea that the people making business decisions at the top are all subject to the peter principle and are therefore making the de facto wrong decisions. On average this is far from the truth. You have a successful outlet of a successful company that is making intelligent business decisions. Take whatever razor you want to the question of why haven't they obsoleted or got rid of the RL. For whatever reason, either legal, effort, marketing, production it is safe to assume they held a hundred meetings with their C-Level suite, their lawyers and whatever and decided that it would cost more to obsolete or get rid of the RL than they could make reprinting those cards or making just as good or better. If its such a low-hanging money making fruit that we are discussing it, better believe they had that discussion as well and after such discussion they decided not to do it.
    I think everybody mostly agrees with this, the disagreement is on which is the most plausible "whatever reason"

  10. #190

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    Sure, the point is that Dom P company puts new bottles of Dom P on the shelves every day (even if it's not very many) and so does Gucci etc etc. Can (does) WotC do this with dual lands? No.
    Actually they can. Thanks for playing.

  11. #191

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Actually they can. Thanks for playing.
    You may have noticed that I covertly put "does" in parentheses in anticipation of this response. Whether WotC choose not to print RL cards because of some overarching long term business goal or because the reserved list is effectively legally-binding (or that they believe that it is), it doesn't matter. The point is that ultimately they don't sell cards that are on the RL, so any argument by analogy to the business practices of these other companies (that do produce their luxury goods in current year) is flawed. All this shit like "hurr durr your tiny brain can't seem to understand why Patek doesn't mass produce 1000s of watches" is missing the point

  12. #192

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    You may have noticed that I covertly put "does" in parenthesis in anticipation of this response.
    Yes, you posted two conflicting meanings of your post because your argument doesn't work if they can make more cards, but then you pull a rehtorical trick where you use can and does interchangeably and it's simply not true.

  13. #193

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Correct, I want it more but is it 100 times better? To justify the price tag I need to be earning $998 more than had I run Watery Grave instead.
    The vast majority of decks are designed to win based on life. Most decks win the game by either bringing their opponents life total from 20 to 0 before their opponents do the same, or by preventing their opponents from bringing their own life total down to 0 by the time they manage to stabilize.

    Everytime someone casts an Watery Grave untapped, they are giving up 10% of their starting life total. A deck with 3 Watery Graves is going to lose a lot more life every single game than an identical deck with 3 Underground Sea. Every single Grave that etbs is one less storm your opponent needs, or one less bolt, or one less swing with a creature etc. Now extrapolate the impact of this life loss over 7 rounds and yes absolutely you are atleast 10% less likely to win a tournament for each Watery Grave in your decklist, all because of the lands you could afford.

    If you want to win a tournament, you're going to want those Underground Seas or a similar fetchable dual that has a much less significant drawback than causing you to lose 10% of your starting life total every time.

    A deck packing 3 Dimir Garden Once upon a time thus only showing a card at random from your hand to your opponent if it is the first land you have played in the whole game, is far far less likely to cause you to lose a tournament than Watery Grave is...

    Dimir Garden Once upon a time
    Swamp Island
    When ~ etb, if it is the first land you have played this game, it enters tapped unless you reveal a card at random from your hand to everyone (I'm sure that could be worded better)

  14. #194

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Yes, you posted two conflicting meanings of your post because your argument doesn't work if they can make more cards, but then you pull a rehtorical trick where you use can and does interchangeably and it's simply not true.
    Ok let me try and explain it as simple as possible:

    The argument put forward was that not reprinting reserved list cards (for whatever reason) gives the game an aura of exclusivity and therefore makes it more desirable,. similar to various other Luxury/Veblen goods.

    However, making the reserved list cards themselves more desirable is of no direct benefit to wotc, because wotc does not produce and sell reserved list cards (for whatever reason). This is totally different to the position that Diamond Miners, Fashion Designers, etc, are in, whereby they are actively selling the thing that they are deliberately limiting the supply of.

    Therefore, for to wotc have the ability to print RL cards without legal consequence and yet choose not to as a business decision, you have to instead make the claim that the high price and exclusivity of reserved list cards generate a kind of transferred desire for e.g. Theros boosters. This is an entirely different (and much less convincing) argument

  15. #195

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    Ok let me try and explain it as simple as possible:

    The argument put forward was that not reprinting reserved list cards (for whatever reason) gives the game an aura of exclusivity and therefore makes it more desirable,. similar to various other Luxury/Veblen goods.

    However, making the reserved list cards themselves more desirable is of no direct benefit to wotc,
    Nope. Past collectable versions absolutely can drive modern prices. See: Sneakers.

  16. #196

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by KobeBryan View Post
    I don't think its possible to put a quantitative data on something where in a match with some thing going down the wire, where 1 life matters, you can justify not using underground sea over watery grave.

    When you need the win you have to make that sacrifice. Its more than just calculating whether you would get a Rate of return on the card. And if you win a top GP of the year with YOUR custom decklist, you are able to be a top quality streamer making content. There's more intangibles than meets the eye.
    Semi-pro bicyclists donít always spend 10 000$ getting the 2 gram lighter wheels. Not every team in formula 1 is Ferrari. At some point small optimization donít make sense; which is why everyone doesnít go out and buy a tabernacle when lands is 0.2% better than the rest of the field.

    There are definitely intangibles, otherwise no one would play legacy in the first place. But most people donít value the intangibles at >100 000$.

  17. #197

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Nope. Past collectable versions absolutely can drive modern prices. See: Sneakers.
    I don't know anything about shoes but my suspicion would be that this is closer to the fetchland / imperial seal / designer bag situation, where the company produces collectible new items with relatively limited supply

    Like lets say that first edition original Air Jordans are worth $10,000 (I have no idea of the actual amount I guess it's probably much higher)
    Nike currently sells whatever other shoe model in its modern current catalogue for e.g. $200
    For the two situations to be comparable and form an argument in favour of WotC not printing RL cards, you have to make the claim that if Nike began to produce (or made it clear that they were willing to produce) replica OG Air Jordans then the demand for the $200 shoe would tank, which doesn't seem realistic to me. Can you explain this rationale in the mind of the buyers?

    An argument that would make some sense to me is that the "$200 buyers" would think "oh no, Nike has shown they are willing to make additional supply of their shoes in the future, therefore their current releases won't be very collectible and I won't buy them", but

    - WotC already makes it clear that its current offerings are liable to be reprinted at their discretion (Fetchlands are reprinted semi-regularly, Ragavan is not on the reserved list)
    - Reprinted cards are obviously visibly distinct from the originals (they have new expansion symbol, frame, foil treatment etc) so the originals retain value as a purely collectible item, which may or may not be true for the re-release of a shoe

    So I'm not convinced by this but I am willing to hear more

  18. #198
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    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    Therefore, for to wotc have the ability to print RL cards without legal consequence and yet choose not to as a business decision, you have to instead make the claim that the high price and exclusivity of reserved list cards generate a kind of transferred desire for e.g. Theros boosters. This is an entirely different (and much less convincing) argument
    I was thinking about this yesterday, now that we're in a post Secret Lair world, you can't entirely dismiss the effects the RL has had on Wizard's bottom line.
    This is not to say any sort of direct sales, I imagine there are zero people saying "I wish I could buy a Fungus Elemental so I guess I'll buy a pack of Strixhaven"
    Rather, concurrent with the growth and success of the game, the Reserved List blew the ceiling off card prices in the secondary market, and along with it has since dragged the whole idea of Magic as a durable good into public acceptance.

    It has been made okay for Black Lotus to be $20,000
    Because of that is has been made okay for Underground Sea to be $1,000
    Because of that is has been made okay for Polluted Delta to be $100
    And so because of that it is okay for Ragavan to debut at $70

    You don't get there based on late 90s Duelist Magazine price guides. Jace, the Mind Sculptor was a $100 Standard legal card, and now that it's just a historical point of data, the consumer has been conditioned to be all good seeing similar prices now. So enter the direct to buyer singles that is Secret Lair, and you can start to see what leeway they have in producing content to match the consumer's idea of acceptable value. You can run a focus group and say you're selling a Secret Lair of 4 cards for $40, what do those cards need to be? 12 years ago you'd get answers like Mox Diamond. Today it can be Island. Not because Island got any better over the decade, but because the collective idea of what an "expensive" card is has grown to absurd levels.

    And so this gets realized by Wizards in the form of the Masters sets ever growing price. Modern Horizons 2 is ~$8 per pack, but still will sell well because the cards are worth it to the players.

    I don't think any of this was the absolute intention of the Reserve List, and there are no 1:1 comparisons that because X cards is $, Y card is $. In a more amorphous way, we're living in the effects of the RL now. The huge success of the game and traditional supply and demand models are also at play here, but you don't get to new card single prices through that alone.

    And I'm confident the damage is done. Even if they abolish the Reserve List today, the price memory is permanent. Cards might drop in value, but never ever again will they be what the were before. Ragavan will still be $70.
    Quote Originally Posted by GreatWhale View Post
    Gross, other formats. I puked in my mouth a little.

  19. #199

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by PirateKing View Post
    It has been made okay for Black Lotus to be $20,000
    Because of that is has been made okay for Underground Sea to be $1,000
    Because of that is has been made okay for Polluted Delta to be $100
    And so because of that it is okay for Ragavan to debut at $70
    I think this is simply an example of the popularity / success of MTG in general increasing over time rather than "the maximum price of tarmogoyf that the market will tolerate is controlled directly by the price of black lotus through a kind of scaling function"

    Like if this assertion was true you would expect to see the price of standard mythics trending upwards over time in the same way that RL cards have but instead (as you might expect) they remain relatively pegged to the price of boosters

    Ragavan debut at $70 because it is a highly playable mythic rare in a set where the packs cost $8. You didn't have any sensible comparison to that in 2005 or whatever.
    You can argue that WotC have only become comfortable printing $8 packs because they see that lotus is $20000 but that seems like a bit of a reach to me

    because the collective idea of what an "expensive" card is has grown to absurd levels.
    Because MTG has grown a lot since then (more players/demand) but the supply of these cards have not increased. I think it's much less of a 'beanie babies' type situation than you are implying

  20. #200

    Re: Do you think Wizards will ever again print dual lands that are better than shocks

    Quote Originally Posted by kombatkiwi View Post
    I don't know anything about shoes but my suspicion would be that this is closer to the fetchland / imperial seal / designer bag situation, where the company produces collectible new items with relatively limited supply

    Like lets say that first edition original Air Jordans are worth $10,000 (I have no idea of the actual amount I guess it's probably much higher)
    Nike currently sells whatever other shoe model in its modern current catalogue for e.g. $200
    For the two situations to be comparable and form an argument in favour of WotC not printing RL cards, you have to make the claim that if Nike began to produce (or made it clear that they were willing to produce) replica OG Air Jordans then the demand for the $200 shoe would tank, which doesn't seem realistic to me. Can you explain this rationale in the mind of the buyers?

    An argument that would make some sense to me is that the "$200 buyers" would think "oh no, Nike has shown they are willing to make additional supply of their shoes in the future, therefore their current releases won't be very collectible and I won't buy them", but

    - WotC already makes it clear that its current offerings are liable to be reprinted at their discretion (Fetchlands are reprinted semi-regularly, Ragavan is not on the reserved list)
    - Reprinted cards are obviously visibly distinct from the originals (they have new expansion symbol, frame, foil treatment etc) so the originals retain value as a purely collectible item, which may or may not be true for the re-release of a shoe

    So I'm not convinced by this but I am willing to hear more
    There's so many stupid teams here I don't even know which one you're on.
    Wait are you in favor of printing RL cards because I thought you were on the opposite team.

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