So we're talking about Black Lotus, so you do understand that every single deck has Lotus right? And you understand that every deck has to spam turn 0 Karn right? That is what Black Lotus leads to. It's the only endpoint...So knowing that this is the only endpoint, and that Karn is a 1-sided Null Rod...then nobody would play symmetrical Null Rod effects, because everybody would be a 1-sided Null Rod deck.
So what the discussion has been about is adding cards that other people use effectively, but you can't. So if we pretend there is no Karn in this hypothetical, we already know that Null Rod spamming would be self-defeating. It would be very cool and powerful feeling to have 12/60 card be Black Lotus and Null Rod and Ouphe wouldn't it.....until you realize everyone else is going to Lotus -> Minsc or whatever you into the dirt. At no point are you getting out of that by deploying redundant Null Rod effects and topdecking Black Loti you can't activate (from waaaaaaay behind on board).
So why would the Null Rod spammer lose? At the core of the answer is that they can't use Black Lotus as well as or better than everyone else. As it turns out, mana is kind of important to pay attention to.
Nice try, but fuck off!
Since you don't want to participate in a meaningful discussion, I suggest you proxy up what you think is a viable example of a vintage deck playing Lotus and Null Rod. I want you too add 3x Lotus to it...and then I want you to jam it against like any other vintage deck that also gets to play 4x Lotus. Let me know when you understand just how unplayable that idea is when your opponent always has the Lotus in their opener (particularly when you're on the draw). Gentlemens' agreement to use no Karns ofc.
Here's your helpful stats (not counting mulligans): your opponent is going from 11.7% to 39.9% of opening hands with Lotus. Best of luck to our Null Rod hero.
We're making progress, I can feel it. You play legacy, and you know that slinging do-nothing 1-for-1 discard spells at Uro is futile. Deep down you know that spamming do-nothings at do-somethings works nowhere. Connect the dots, you're so close!
Nope. We're so close.
You brought up a point that was worth discussing. You said that we would see wild success out of 4x Black Lotus Null Rod tribal decks in @FTWs hypothetical. You point is based solely on the existence of 1x Black Lotus decks with Null Rods in Vintage.
The thing about having an adult discussion is thinking critically. You overlooked the fact that successfully dropping a Null Rod is a different thing in a deck that only has 1x slot of Lotus vs 4x slots (see also how 4x Chalice in legacy does not get to play 1-drops that can't escape Chalice through the Saga pathway). You also overlooked that every time a current vintage Null Rod deck stares down an opponent, that that opponent only has an 11.7% chance to open a hand with Lotus...and when they mull they get another 11.7% chance to see a Lotus...and when we do the math we recognize that current Null Rod decks in vintage owe a lot of their success to that 11.7% not being 39.9% (with one mull, that is over 50% odds to open Lotus, and that might be a problem if they can just win on the play by going down to 3 looking for something as simple as land, Lotus, Minsc vs someone drawing do-nothings like Null Rod)
So you brought up a reasonable discussion point, and I told you why it doesn't reasonably work. While I'm sure responding with a content bereft personal attack feels good, we're right back at the same place where in @FTWs hypothetical where the reason a 4x Lotus deck will never be viable as Null Rod tribal, because they're playing from too far behind and through too much self-sabotage - it's actually a lot like playing discard tribal vs Uro.
So the point stands. The reason a deck or idea finds its way to being uncompetitive can be stated as; failing to do something novel [and relevant] better than any other deck could. So the reason why Dreadnought can't run Bauble can be simply understood as: Delver does it better, and we would do it worse... because we can't use it as a cantripping Lotus Petal.
To help you understand this we can look at DRC. Dreadnought decks use it better than Delver ever could. Delver is consistent and powered (tier 1), but Dreadnought is tier 2 meaning that it is overpowered at the cost of consistency. For us DRC addresses an aspect of our game the generates disproportionate amounts of win % b/c it addresses a primary deficiency (which Delver decks do not share).
This doesn't mean that Delver doesn't get to play DRC b/c we're the best at using it. It means that Delver is not allowed to use DRC in the same way as we do - they have to find a different novel direction and be better at that novel thing than anyone else. In the simplest of terms Delver has defined their novel direction as using Bauble as a cantripping Lotus Petal - and they're better at it than anyone.
But that doesn't mean that only Delver gets to use Bauble. Other decks still get to do novel things with Bauble that still make mana like threshold (Cabal Rit) or metalcraft (Mox) or improvise (Kappa).
This is all that I have said, and until we see trash ideas like Tarmogoyf vs Murktide or discard vs Uro winning from way behind, we know that every deck in magic traces its success to being the best at the novel thing it does. It doesn't mean they get to have a monopoly on staples.
First, you're assuming the an equilibrium state reached of optimal design for all decks. The context of this discussion is whether adding a card would improve the win-rate of a New & Developmental deck, which may not yet be optimized.
You also picked a very extreme case with anti-synergy (Null Rod). That falls into the "other reasons" category. If you take some generic brew deck like MonoGreen Beasts, adding Lotus would increase the win rate, even if some storm combo deck uses Lotus even better.
Anyway, Lotus does increase the winrate of Vintage Fish/Stax/Prison decks. That's why they run it. Lotus helps them power out turn 1 prison pieces on the play. You argue this only works because they run Lotus as a 1x and not a 4x, but they often run some number of Moxen too, so it amounts to the same frequencies.
The scenario you're describing is Null Rod tribal with 4x Lotus On the Draw vs proactive deck (aggro, combo) with 4x Lotus On the Play. Yes, the aggro/combo deck is favored. That's not because Lotus is winrate lowering in Null Rod tribal, or because Null Rod only works in formats with Lotus @ 1x, but because Null Rod itself is bad on the draw vs Lotus. Null Rod is very bad against Lotus on the draw, because Lotus has already been used on turn 1 - it's too late. It's like playing Suppression Field in Legacy turn 2 on the draw, after opponent has fetched twice & in a deck that also has fetchlands! The problem you identify has more to do with Null Rod being a bad Lotus hate piece than mana acceleration being bad in Null Rod tribal.
Vintage decks mainly run Null Rod to hate on Moxen (present at 3-5x the rate of Lotus). Null Rod is good against Moxen on the play & on the draw. It's also good against Sol Ring, Mana Crypt, Time Vault, etc. These artifacts are already present in Vintage decks at higher frequency than 4x Lotus, and accelerated Null Rod has still always been a pillar of the format.
If you have a Legacy format with 4x Lotus but no Moxen, then Null Rod tribal with Lotus will be too slow on the draw. But that has more to do with Null Rods failing to stop Lotus on the play (the deck is stuck powering out cards that can't help it catch up) rather than Lotus being bad in the Null Rod deck. A Null Rod deck with lands instead of Lotus would have the same problem on the draw (fail to catch up to what the other decks are powering out with Lotus), except it would be even worse on the play!! Null Rod is the win-rate lowering component here, not Lotus.
Why? Lotus casts Turn 1 Karn & Turn 1 Null Rod & Turn 1 Collector Ouphe and all other cards that are good against the opponent's Lotus deck when going first. Without Lotus, you would not be able to power out all those cards on turn 1 as easily, letting opponent use their Lotus first.
The other decks may use Lotus better, but Null Rod Tribal would have an even lower win rate without Lotus to help it power out turn 1 prison pieces. Casting Turn 4 Karn would be much worse than casting Turn 1 Karn.
The relevant comparison for win rate is:
a) Null Rod Tribal with Lotus
b) Null Rod Tribal without Lotus
NOT
a) Null Rod Tribal with Lotus
c) Other deck with Lotus
Whether c > a (the other deck uses Lotus better) doesn't change whether a > b. If a > b, the Null Rod deck is still better with Lotus in it than without Lotus. Even if that win rate is 30% ("soft-banned") and deck c is 55%, Lotus still increases the win rate for deck a.
This is the exact flawed reasoning with Dressnought vs Delver that I was trying to point out with the analogy, and you used it again. Other decks' win rates are tangential to whether Lotus improves Null Rod Tribal's win rate.
Back to Delver and Bauble:
Bauble is bad in your deck is not because Delver uses Bauble better (Delve & extra card type for Delirium), but because Bauble doesn't really do much for your deck. It doesn't add anything that your strategy needs. It's just a filler "slowtrip". Cards like that make mulligans and cantrips worse without advancing your game plan.
I agree with you on the conclusion. I just felt like you were arguing backwards from the conclusion, using a faulty reason to justify it. dte seemed to say the same thing. While it amounts to the same conclusion either way in this case, that reasoning could be wrong for other decks and other scenarios.
Last edited by FTW; 02-21-2023 at 10:26 AM.
do not engage!
If we needed to build a monoblue dressnought list, how would you build it?
4x Phyrexian Dreadnought
2x Delver of Secrets
2x Murktide Regent
2x Sailor’s Bane
1x Brazen Borrower
1x Currency Converter
1x Phyrexian Furnace
4x Dress Down
4x Brainstorm
4x FoW
3x Stifle
3x Minor Misstep
2x Ponder
1x Flusterstorm
1x Misdirection
1x Daze
1x Slip Out the Back
1x Force of Negation
4x The Mycosynth Garden
4x Snow-Covered Island
3x Otawara, Soaring City
3x Misty Rainforest
3x Flooded Strand
3x Urza’s Saga
2x Wasteland
SB:
4x Hydroblast
3x Mindbreak Trap
MonoU died the moment they printed Prismatic Vista, now monoU always begins with 4x Tarn, 4 Vista, 1x Mountain + 4x Bolt and 4x SB Blasts. MonoU died harder when they printed DRC, so add 4x DRC and 1x Volc (Steam Vents if budget). MonoU dies yet again with the printing of Myscosynth, which taps for red. Keep going till you get to my list for ~$1100 [budget]. It's also important to recognize that people play Minsc as the premier "I don't want to lose to Red Blast" PW...and just how trashy the card is vs Bolt.
More than not having red, you have 3x Otawara (legendary land) and 3x Saga. Going from 2x to 3x is roughly triple the odds of opening hands with 2 copies of the same land name. Going up on Saga with max Dress Down is incorrect. On Otawara it replaces Brazen Borrower, and as a result mulligans decrease; the only reason Brazen still sees play is that cantrip cartel decks can't get to 4 mana and/or they can't restrict themselves to a 1c land, so they have to play the worse card (loses to REB, loses to discard, loses to Steppe, loses to Counterbalance, can't protect their own cards, and the list goes on). Once you have a real mana base, there should be zero Brazen. 6x Fetch is not enough to play Brainstorm.
Sailors' Bane and Dreadnought don't go in the same deck; cards like Dress Down and Otawara and higher land counts sabotage Bane and Delver. Likewise, bad mana and Brazen spam required for Bane antagonizes any Dreadnought plan. Highly conditional spells (like Stifle and Misstep) with Bane is also suspect; you should always play 2x FoN with Bane b/c FoN and FoW are Dark Ritual (net +2 mana).
Playing slow, random big dudes lacks synergy. Get on board from turn 1 and kill them, we have DRC and Lavamancer - this is how you make them tap out of Red Blast. Attack the cards you know people have to play.
A mono U list I don't think could run saga and Dress Down. While I think that it's ok to have multiple plans, they can't actively work against each-other and hopping your saga just lives for 3 turns when the Deck to Beat is on Wasteland sounds like a bad time.
I also think you're missing what made Bane so playable over murktide, which was a card like Uro which pressured your own graveyard. If you're not using your GY for anything else then Murky is probably better. So if you have no uro then you'd need to max out on Force, Misdirection, Borrower, ect to leverage the exile clause on Bane, which is a lot of slots I don't think you want to commit.
If I was going to build a mono-U list there's two directions I would consider: First, a control deck. Op resolves nothing, and what they do resolve is Brazenly Borrowed.
The second is a torpor orb stompy. You have blue cards for a light protection suite (force, misdirection, stifle) but otherwise you're running a deck that is looking to maximize turn 1 dreadnoughts. Think Monolith->Orb->Dreadnought. I had some success with this approach when I first got into legacy, but that was a long time ago and if I tried it again today I'd look towards the 12-cast (or whatver they're calling the cannoneer affinity decks) lists for inspiration on where you can insert your dreadnought package.
Why are you forced into monoblue? The problem with monoblue is it lacks removal. Splashing red (Bolt) or white (Swords) is easy and would fix that, giving you removal and better sideboard tools.
If it's a budget issue, you can play Ur or Uw with only 1 dual, and you can use a Shockland if you really have to.
For the sake of this hypothetical discussion, I'll assume you're stuck in monoblue.
#1 Problem: Removal
You need a way to deal with creatures and other permanents. The normal way is to use white cards, red cards, or black cards. In monoblue that means multiple Brazen Borrower. (Otawara is important too, but on its own too slow to stop things like fast Marit Lage or Murktide).
You could also try playing Thing in the Ice as an alternate threat and thing that bounces creatures.
Subtlety may be a good idea, but then you need a powerful draw engine like Standstill to support it. Rood had a good brew like that earlier. Notice the combo with Subtlety. It's "Force of Creature". You can force a Murktide/Minsc/Narset/WPA, then Stifle the sacrifice trigger to keep a 1-mana 3/3 flyer. Or you can cycle Dress Down and then spend 2 cards to make a 0-mana flash 3/3, ambushing an attacker or planeswalker. It has synergy with Dreadnought cards and also answers things blue struggles with (creatures & planeswalkers). The only problem is it hemorrhages cards, so you really need to follow up with something like Standstill to get cards back.
Back in 2010 the monoblue tech was Vedalken Shackles or Sower of Temptation, but those are way too slow today.
Ultimately you need some way to interact with faster resolved threats, because you won't be the fastest deck in Legacy and adding more fatties (Murktide, Sailors' Bane) won't fix that.
#2 Problem: Stable blue mana
The other thing is you need to be careful about colorless lands. You need minimum 14 blue lands with 7-8 fetches. Colorless lands (Mycosynth, Saga, Wasteland) come after that, and you also have to balance the risk of mana flooding. 4x each = 26 lands, too many, so you have to cut back on some. 20-22 lands seems like a good spot. That still means prioritizing some over others and picking a plan.
#3 Problem: Pick a direction
If you're on the Delver/Daze tempo plan, 20 lands max and I agree with FourDogs that you should be on Murktide and drop Sailors' Bane. This sort of build wants Delver, Ponder, Murktide, Daze (because you'll be tapping out for early threats), and skip Minor Misstep (because you'll be tapping out for early threats). Thing in The Ice may be good here.
Edit - Example:
//Creatures: 13
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
3 Murktide Regent
2 Brazen Borrower
//Spells: 23
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Stifle
4 Daze
2 Dismember
1 Slip Out the Back
//Enchantments: 4
4 Dress Down
//Lands: 20
2 The Mycosynth Gardens
4 Wasteland
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
8 Island
//Sideboard: 15
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Hydroblast
2 Submerge
2 True-Name Nemesis
1 Flusterstorm
1 Force of Negation
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Brazen Borrower
1 Echoing Truth
1 Energy Flux
It'll be a worse tempo deck than UR Delver or UR Dressnought, but within your rigid parameters it should be at least FNM playable. It might be even better cutting Delver for Thing in the Ice.
Minor Misstep is much better in a "draw go" version without Ponder or Delver, where you pass with T1 land untapped threatening Stifle or Misstep. That sort of build has 0 Delver, 0 Ponder, 0 Daze, and probably leans into an instant-speed controlling plan with cards like Brazen Borrower, Shark Typhoon, Standstill, Subtlety...
Edit - Example:
//Lands: 22
2 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
5 Island
1 Hall of Storm Giants
2 Otawara, Soaring City
4 The Mycosynth Gardens
2 Urza's Saga
//Creatures: 8
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Subtlety
//Spells: 15
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
4 Stifle
3 Minor Misstep
//Enchantments: 10
4 Dress Down
4 Standstill
2 Shark Typhoon
//Planeswalkers: 2
2 Karn, the Great Creator
//Artifacts: 3
1 Currency Converter
1 Relic of Progenitus
1 Scroll of Fate
//Sideboard: 15
1 Liquimetal Coating
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Torpor Orb
2 Hydroblast
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Force of Negation
2 Brazen Borrower
2 True-Name Nemesis
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
Again, this is worse than UW Dreadstill or UR Dreadstill, because monoblue lacks the tools to play a proper control game, but within your rigid monoblue parameters it should at least do a thing.
But the much better plan is to not be monoblue and just splash a color.
Last edited by FTW; 02-21-2023 at 07:39 PM.
Bouncing creatures isn't all that effective. If you're bouncing specifically Murktide, Lage, or Nought it will usually work out. The problem is that Goyf-types (Murktide) really destroy the diversity of the format and either force people to either play Goyf or play anti-Goyf, or just opt out and combo hard. When it comes to all the anti-Goyf options, they're all creatures you can't bounce without falling behind (Strix, Ice-Fang, SCM, Uro, SFM) - this by itself is too much of the meta to carry around a self-defeating removal package...and it gets worse when you think about bouncing hamster tokens.
You can do one of these:
-You can avoid any Dreadnought stuff, and instead play crappy Goyf (Bane) to beat Goyf (Murktide) via lots of Brazen; b/c while Murktide #1 comes out faster than Bane #1, Bane #2-4 comes out faster than Murktide #2-4. To beat anti-Goyf strats however, you're going to need Lavamancer or Plague Engi-type cards. You're also going to need ramp (DRC). At 11-12 slots of dudes + 3x Brazen (since you're really targeting MurkGoyf), you're not allowed to add Noughts or Dreadnought tech. Instead you just copy/paste UR Delver stuff with a worse dude in the Goyf slot...and b/c your mana is going to be awful while you're also trying to play Iteration/Sanctuary/Daze, you don't get to mess around with Saga.
-You could also get a 7/7 ward 3 dude on a land (Hall of Storm Giants) which says "every time opponent makes a PW at sorc speed, dome it for 7 b/c all kill spells cost 4)". This requires the hardest of hard control elements (Teferi 3cmc and Karn murdering lands), and also requires mana development (no Saga allowed). This is UW Dreadstill, and Timeless Dragon + Standstill + higher land totals all favor Storm Giants over Saga/Gardens. The main thing Mycosynth adds is a 3rd color for Ending without corrupting the colored manabase.
-If you want Saga/Gardens, that's UR Dreadnought and it works b/c the CA pathway is consistent ability to find value trinkets with option to copy with Mycosynth thus turning lands into value. Bane/Brazen are not part of the plan; they don't play nicely with the tech.
So name your CA engine and follow it. No half-plans. All synergy, all the time. Do something novel, and do it better than any other deck in the format.
---
One more thing on 3x Otawara and 3x Saga: self-defeating at these level. Trying to channel Otawara with so much land sacrifice is problematic. Trying to power out constructs with 3x legendary land is problematic. These cards play at 2-ofs.
On Delver of Secrets the card is basically unplayable, and widely regarded as the worst card in Delver. The unplayability of this card was first demonstrated by UR Dreadstill where Standstill then Shark'nado then some utility targets for Saga brought card type instant/sorcery below 24 slots. Delver has only ever been a good card in the early games, and once you start racing towards 20 instant/sorc it doesn't even matter if you have the Delver early b/c it cannot be trusted to flip. The only thing you can trust Delver of Secrets to do, beyond not flipping, is be one of the absolute worst mid-to-late game topdecks (like seriously, it's almost as bad as Mox Diamond at this point in a game). Delver of Secrets is also absolute garbage below 4x copies, b/c the only thing the card ever offered was a good early game - like it's so bad at 2x copies that Ascendant Spirit would win more games. That's why we always always always choose DRC before any of this.
My comment was building/exploring within OP's defined parameters: monoblue only, Dreadnought deck, the types of cards he listed. Otherwise the obvious answer is to play a 2nd color, which we all said.
Unfortunately outside OP's parameters.
I like this in a grindier Standstill plan, although you can't complete the package (Teferi, Dragon, proper control elements) in monoblue. Monoblue control without Wraths or Ending?
Edit: I had vaguely discussed the option above, but now edited to include a potential list. 1 Hall fits in well. But it looks anemic at control.
Outside OP's parameters. He could still do monoblue with Saga/Gardens into trinkets, without Sailors' Bane (bad) or Delver, but he needs some sort of answers to early creatures.
Those are the main threats that would race a tempo deck with Dreadnought & Murktide. You can also out-tempo Minsc & Boo by bouncing an attacking Hamster, then attack the PW with a 3/1 flyer (if you don't have the mana to flash & counter-attack, bounce Minsc and try to counter it?). Flash 3/1 also kills Narset. Most importantly the same bounce also removes Chalice @ 1 or Ensnaring Bridge lock (vs combat-reliant deck), so your removal deals with a whole range of problems. Otawara answers the prison pieces too, but Otawara can't do the first few modes with reasonable tempo or give you another threat that counts to 20.
Bounce is also marginally effective vs these accelerated Initiative creatures (if they blow 1-time acceleration on it) or if you can follow up with Daze (-2 turns to opponent). Sure it's not as good as permanent removal, but what other options do you have in monoblue?
The only real option is Dismember. Dismember will answers fast creatures that are ineffective to bounce (DRC, Allosaurus, WPA), but it can't answer bigger threats. Luckily Borrower covers those bigger threats well. So play a mix of both? What else are you going to do in monoblue?
Initiative has mostly pushed fair midrange out of the format. You can also interact with those creatures via Dress Down (also good vs Initiative), so OP might not get punished for it in the current meta.
Good point. Especially with the low spell count. But then what else do you play to race as monoblue tempo after Dreadnought + Murktide? Thing in The Ice? Do you just give up on any turn 1 play and leave mana open for Minor Misstep/Stifle/StubbyD?
Remember - DRC is outside OP's parameters.
Awesome suggestions. Thanks everyone. This was mostly a theoretical discussion to see what tools blue lacks, because it felt like a controllish blue deck should be able to win with a surprise 12/12 trampler easier than with other blue win conditions, and its viable now due to the high density of ways blue has to enable the 12/12.
It looks like BoshNRoll tried out the Greater Good list and 5-0ed with it…
Artifact (2)
1 Chrome Mox
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
Creature (10)
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
2 Endurance
Enchantment (7)
3 Greater Good
4 Dress Down
Instant (17)
1 Misdirection
3 Lightning Bolt
4 Brainstorm
2 Stifle
4 Force of Will
2 Abrade
1 Minor Misstep
Land (19)
1 Island
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Taiga
3 Tropical Island
3 Volcanic Island
4 Urza's Saga
Sorcery (5)
3 Ponder
2 Expressive Iteration
60 Cards
Sideboard (15)
2 Carpet of Flowers
1 Pithing Needle
2 Pyroblast
2 Torpor Orb
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Hydroblast
1 Force of Negation
1 Force of Vigor
1 Veil of Summer
2 Run Afoul
1 Endurance
I think Greater Good is an excellent 1 of in green lists but I really dont think I would play more than 1.
Meanwhile, Ark4n 5-0ed with a list featuring 4 The Mycosynth Gardens…
Artifact (9)
4 Mox Diamond
1 Aether Spellbomb
2 Scroll of Fate
1 Shadowspear
1 Soul-Guide Lantern
Creature (8)
4 Phyrexian Dreadnought
3 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
1 Haywire Mite
Instant (12)
4 Stifle
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
Land (25)
3 Wasteland
1 Island
1 Forest
1 Flooded Strand
1 Windswept Heath
3 Tropical Island
4 Urza's Saga
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Boseiju, Who Endures
2 Otawara, Soaring City
4 The Mycosynth Gardens
Sorcery (6)
2 Life from the Loam
4 Ponder
Sideboard (15)
1 Pithing Needle
1 Hydroblast
2 Torpor Orb
4 Endurance
2 Force of Negation
2 Force of Vigor
1 Haywire Mite
2 Minor Misstep
25 lands!!??
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