[Deck] Belcher

[Ciberon]

If you play 1-land belcher (like me) and didn't see the land yet, when you activate belcher about 50 cards should remain in your library. You want to flip 10 of those before the land. That is 1/5 of the deck, so your sucess rate should be 80%.

[GoboLord]

Land Grant invalidate those stats too, as there will be ain't no land anymore in the deck at the time you activate Belcher if you play the 1-land belcher, and only one if you play the regular 2-lands version.

I say that because some people could find that the percentage of win is pretty low (under 75%) when you activate Belcher. But it increases if you drew your land or cast Land Grant.

P-M

Land Grant doesnt invalidate those stats because I did this calculations to point out how "risky" it is to go off with Belcher if you have lands in deck.
It's only logical that Belcher shouldn't fizzle if there are no lands left.

[Iranon]

O.k. the way you did it is much easier, but I didnt know those formulas.
Nevertheless they dont bring resukts for the 2-land-one-of-which-is-bayou-condition.
Silent Requiem said I had bad luck but you ony reffered to a situation where 2 TAIGA are in deck and not 1 Taiga, 1 Bayou. This situation is different cause Bayou needs 20 cards to kill, and Taiga 10.
So I think this part of my calculation is right.

Again, we don't need simulation, good old-fashioned probability will do with the correct application. Assmption of 50 cards in library, 1 Bayou, 1 Taiga.

We need to not reveal a land in the first 10. We already have that probability - it's the same as the chance to win with 2 Taigas: 0.637

*

Taking as given that we don't reveal a land in the first 10:
We can win by drawing no lands in the next 10 reveals. Chance of this is 38/40 * 37/39 * ... * 29/31 = 29*30/(39*40) = 0.355
If we draw a land in these reveals (chance of 1 minus the above), we have a 50% chance of winning: We win if the Taiga is on top of the Bayou, we don't win if the Bayou is on top of the Taiga. So the chance of winning by flipping a Taiga in between card 11 and 20 is (1-0.355)/2

Total chance of winning, given that we flipped no land in the first 10 is:
0.355+(1-0.355)/2 = 0.678

*

For our end result, we need to multiply this with the chance to not flip a land in the first 10...

0.637*0.678= 0.43 for our chance to belch for lethal damage with a Bayou and a Taiga in a 50-card library.

[GoboLord]

Okay, thanks for that. So my 48% aren't based on "bad luck" as Silent assumed.

You method works better here (and is much more precise). No need for programs then

[workingdude]

Pyretic Ritual 1R
Instant (C)
Add RRR to your mana pool

Should this replace some of the manamorphose or seething songs in some lists? Desperate Ritual 5-8?

[pokezel]

I think Pyretic Ritual is better than Desperate ritual in some cases. It's an instant, which allows you for some instant speed responses, like belcher activations. I have definitely used desperate ritual's Splice mechanic before, but I'm not sure how much it would affect the deck's performance, if any.

Edit: I'm wrong, desperate ritual is an instant, LOL

[workingdude]

I think Pyretic Ritual is better than Desperate ritual in some cases. It's an instant, which allows you for some instant speed responses, like belcher activations. I have definitely used desperate ritual's Splice mechanic before, but I'm not sure how much it would affect the deck's performance, if any.

Desperate Ritual is an instant.

[pokezel]

Desperate Ritual is an instant.

Well F me in the A. I've invalidated myself as a player.

[yankeedave]

Pyretic Ritual 1R
Instant (C)
Add RRR to your mana pool

Should this replace some of the manamorphose or seething songs in some lists? Desperate Ritual 5-8?

Has this been spoiled or are you just messing with us?

[Iranon]

Okay, thanks for that. So my 48% aren't based on "bad luck" as Silent assumed.

You method works better here (and is much more precise). No need for programs then

A pleasure. There is no need for programs in many situations where they're habitually used, and sometimes I believe the scientific community would be in better shape if they weren't so readily available... we're losing the culture of rigorous thinking and figuring out how to apply the basics. Ah well, at least we still have games :)

[Ozymandias]

This has been a pretty good two weeks for Belcher. It is now possible to pack the deck full of nothing but win conditions and mana off of one color.

Shwing.

[Vacrix]

Has this been spoiled or are you just messing with us?

It has been spoiled. But its shitty. I can't see it replacing much.

[yankeedave]

I might actually run the new ritual instead of Grim Monolith and leave Manamorphose in for fixing. I need to start testing again now!

[Vacrix]

Well does the list have issues color fixing? Seething Song 'color fixes' for 2 of the 2R, and you already have Manamorphose and plenty of initial red sources. I think keeping Monoliths is the right call.

[Brad Herbig]

Well if you are playing the RGb version of Belcher, you will need Manamorphose for Dark Ritual.

I am currently playing the 1-land RG Belcher list, and I might cut Manamorphose in that list for the new ritual. I am not really a fan of Grim Monolith due to the fact it doesn't produce colored mana, which is very important to making enough mana with other rituals for your business.

[GreenOne]

New card: Pyretic Ritual


1R
Instant
Add RRR to your mana pool.

It's just a Desperate Ritual clone, without Splice.

[Vacrix]

The question here is really, would you rather cycle into your mana source with Manamorphose, or just run the Ritual in its place. Manamorphose is not necessary unless you are playing Spoils and Dark Ritual. Also, you can't really know if whats on top of your deck is actually what you need. In that case, running the ritual over MM would certainly make mulliganing easier because then you know exactly what you have in hand, rather than having your hand +1 unknown card from your library.

[JonBarber]

The question here is really, would you rather cycle into your mana source with Manamorphose, or just run the Ritual in its place. Manamorphose is not necessary unless you are playing Spoils and Dark Ritual. Also, you can't really know if whats on top of your deck is actually what you need. In that case, running the ritual over MM would certainly make mulliganing easier because then you know exactly what you have in hand, rather than having your hand +1 unknown card from your library.

Yes, but manamorphose does two important thing, it thins your deck, creating a better win con/ritual ratio, and it also in creases storm count. Once I have enough to go off, I love seeing manamorphose.

[jtwilkins]

Manamorphose can also even out the mana for Tinderwall, Swarm, Duress and some sideboard wishes.
I don't think the new ritual will see play, all the other cards in the deck are better then it and wrath is just a void spot so wrath is better then Pyretic Ritual. Unless in actual play it comes out that Pyretic is better then Grim Monolith which we don't even know if grim is worth a spot.

[TestMonkey]

Any thoughts on Crack the Earth replacing Xantid Swarm in the sideboard? On the draw it seems pretty good. Must counter or they lose out on their opening land drop or 1 drop and lord help them if they had to mulligan to find an answer to EtW and Belcher. Also cheap enough to combo off around. I've sent several opponents into top deck mode after nuking their initial land drop.