Quote Originally Posted by rufus View Post
It seems like "loses to counterspell" doesn't really matter much after creative technique's been cast as part of the combo since individual copies of creative technique also lose to counterspell. Sure, there are some highly specific counters like Dress Down, but most of the concern with "loses to counterspell" is when the combo is being initiated.
If you read the rest of the comment, I continue that "loses to counterspell" thought into "it's risky as a starter" and conclude with "Dino competes for non-Starter slots" (lands, interaction, Wanderer, etc.). Then ask what ratio PirateKing is using, not challenge Dino's usage. Both of us have 3-4 copies.

Yes, the main risk is starting the chain. The deck is also a careful balance between starters, lands, and other effects. There are many posts earlier from multiple users with simulations and math to decide on the optimal balance between these effects to go off the most consistently. If Dino replaces a non-starter slot, it changes that balance, and maybe the other numbers need to change too. In other words, adding Dino could fundamentally change the deck ratios and composition in a way that was never considered before.

I started addressing this by adding new math and testing other build ratios, but this is still an open question. Dino is new tech and the stock build may need to change to best accommodate it.

I tested Sakashima's Protege. It copies Carnosaur to double "cascade", but that extra branch can only hit Creative Technique directly (no 6 cmc creature first). Since you'll normally run out of all 4 CTs no matter how many branches you make, that extra branch doesn't actually add more bodies to the board. The other multi-cascaders (Maelstrom, Apex) do add more bodies because the extra branches can hit creatures, but the Carnosaur copy can't. To use Sakashima as a starter, you'll want 8 UU lands (Saprazzan Skerry & Teferi's Isle probably). As a non-starter it's worse than the other multi-cascaders. Overall it seems unnecessary.

Edit: Dress Down specifically is a problem for builds too heavy on Carnosaur & Maelatrom Wanderer. It stops Carnosaur's trigger (ends the branch) and Maelstrom's haste, passing the turn. Emrakul's Time Walk does get through Dress Down since it happens on cast, so going up on Emrakul copies is one way to hedge against losing to Dress Down.