I am not sure if the topic has been discussed in other threads, some wild ideas came to me and they looked as:

1. Leave aside card interactions, compare Lightning Bolt with:
R Instant Flip a coin. If you win the flip, [Card Name] deals 3 damages to target creature or player and another 3 damges to target creature or player.

2. To what extent does lightning bolt inferior/superior to:
R Instant Roll a six-faced dice. If you win the roll, you win the game.
Again, ignore the effects that modify the flipping/rolling.

Move on, for the sake of amusement.