Quote Originally Posted by libingboy View Post
in that case, wouldnt you use the hypergeometric distribution?
assuming you have at least one FOW in your opening 7,
probability of being able to use your fow in the first turn is 1-hypgeomdist(0,6,n,59) <-excel has a built-in function
where n is the number of blue cards in your deck, excluding the 1 fow already in your hand.

i got the following: (note that a "15" means 16 blue cards)
15 0.843332274
16 0.864696055
17 0.883575675
18 0.900207721
19 0.914811469
20 0.927589749
21 0.938729788
22 0.948404032

probability seems quite high, am i missing something?

Those numbers seem about right.

It really highlights the crux of the issue and why it's so hard to discuss: Decks that run with only 15 or 16 blue spells can still cast Force of Will very reliably. It would take a large number of games before you'd even see a few games where the low blue count deck didn't have the turn 1 Force of Will whereas the higher blue count deck would have. And the difference is even more slight if the issue is Force of Will midgame or lategame (where the problem boils down more to the strength of the blue spells and their function rather than the raw number count).

Assuming that Force of Will is still needed, it might be the correct play for a deck to run Force of Will even with just 14 or 15 blue cards total.

But once you do that, the deck probably ends up with an optimization problem. When you're running Force of Will, every spell that's blue gets a big advantage just by virtue of the fact that it's blue and can be pitched to Force of Will, since each one adds like a 1% chance to get the Force of Will. When you reoptimize the deck, you'll probably end up with a deck with around 16-22 blue spells.


It's up to the deck designer to optimize it, but a lot depends on the type of blue spells, what you need the Force for, and most importantly: What your best blue/non-blue alternatives are, because that's the real point of transition. If you have a very good blue alternative, even if you're running 24+ blue spells, it's probably worth it to run more blue. If your next-best blue alternative is a huge step down, it might be better to run with 16 or 17 blue spells rather than take that step backward.

Either way, the best information isn't a vague description of the feeling you get when someone says a number, it's the actual statistical breakdown on how the deck's chances are affected. Deck designers can use that information to get a better understanding of what their deck needs to do.


Raw blue count will always be a good measure of how reliable Force of Will will be, but it's worth noting that there are many other factors at stake.