I completely agree with the first part of your post. I don't like bloom either because every card in this deck counts, we need to optimize our draw 4's to win now instead of in 4 turns while we're sitting on 1-10 life. 4 Mox Opal is ideal though, atleast in the non-pact version. Because of Opal I've upped the number of initial mana sources from 14 to 17, which is a huge difference, making mulligans less frequent and much smoother, and making the belcher package much more deadly. Multiples can be casted for storm, and fuel the graveyard for Cabal Ritual. Although I'd prefer not to draw multiples, the gains of running 4 outweigh the risks.
I don't like the pact package though, I've found it rather clunky having to summoner's pact for elvish spirit guide, and pray for a good Draw4. In addition, it loses Empty the Warrens, which has won me many games against blue that I would not have won, and Dryad arbor has summoning sickness to tap for mana, which means if you fetch it to use as culling fodder, you've lost your land drop. Vice versa, if you drop a Bayou then you have no means to tutor for a free creature unless you run Skyshroud Cutter, which not many lists I've seen do.
If survival gets an Iona on black then how often do you have the mana to wish and cast Wing Snare without black rituals? It seems like a one in a million potshot, it might just be better to devote that slot to improving the control match post board. SI is fast enough to race most of the hate, they can't resolve Iona until turn 4+, and by then you've either won or are staring down a Gaddock Teeg, or bad draws, but it happens when you play this deck. And if you can't cast IT with 4+ mana floating, I generally just wait. If I need to win now there's always the go all in on a draw4 plan, which rarely works, but it's there. I'm a huge fan of Tombstalker, he's won me a lot of games vs blue, but if he is MD he is just going to make one of your opponents almost dead cards (removal) into a 4+ for 1 (assuming you cracked LED discarding your hand). And merfolk does have an out to Tombstalker, Coralhelm Commander. In the last Vestal tourney I lost G1 vs merfolk, won G2 because of a turn 1 Tombstalker, then G3 went like this:
Merfolk: Turn 1 Island, Vial, Pass
Me: I forget the rituals but it wound up casting my whole hand but tendrils, and turn 1 Xantid Swarm and Tombstalker, and Thoughseizing away a Coralhelm Commander
Merfolk: Turn 2 Silvergill Adept, reveal Lord of Atlantis
Me: Swing, pass
Merfolk: Turn 3 Coralhelm Commander, level, Vial in LoA, swing
Me: Swing, pass
Merfolk: Turn 4 Standstill, level twice, Vial in Reejery
Now Coralhelm commander is as big as Tombstalker, and when he leveled it fully next turn it was gg. Merfolk should never be able to block a Tombstalker ]=. This was when I was 4-1 too.
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