Some recent threads on here and MTGS really got me thinking about this topic. Everyone seems to accept, without challenging the validity of, the reason for the limited support for Legacy being the Reserved, and that Legacy is destined to eventually die due to the Reserved List, and that Modern is supposed to be the Eternal format that is not bound to the Reserved List.

Is this really a legitimate reason, or is it something else?

I have begun analyzing results from the various SCG Legacy Opens, since they are the most frequent Legacy events that gather 100+ players on a regular basis (Memphis only had 94 people, oddly...yet Cincinnati had almost 300). I did notice one thing in common with the winning decks (which are widely varied from event to event, and seem to be a good random assortment that make good examples of their given types).

They all typically consist of 1% or less of cards from the Reserved List. A couple had a bit over 1% of the deck consisting of Reserved List cards. And aside from mana (IE - duals), it was almost rare to find a card on the Reserved List in the deck list.

The vast, vast majority of cards we play with in Legacy are not bound by the Reserved List. Aside from duals, there are very few Reserved List cards we'd consider staples - Moat and Tabernacle (which are rarely played anyways), Null Rod, Show and Tell, Humility, Meditate (rarely played anyways), Intuition, LED, Mox Diamond, City of Traitors, and Metalworker are the biggest. Some others are Replenish, Gaea's Cradle, Serra's Sanctum, Grim Monolith, Aluren, Abeyance, Firestorm, Undiscovered Paradise, and City of Solitude.

Including duals, that is 30 cards in the format that are semi-frequently played that are on the Reserved List. That is a very, very small portion of the commonly played Legacy cards - probably around or under 5% of the semi-frequently played card pool.

Is it really the Reserved List that is holding back Legacy...or is it something else?