Hi All,

Typically, we've seen Preordain only after Ponder takes up 4 slots. The only exception I've seen so far is in the occasional Miracles deck. I'm here to suggest that Preordain is superior to Ponder in more existing decks, including RUG Delver. I would be grateful if you could validate or critique my thought process here to make sure I'm on track. First, let's examine the differences between the two blue cantrips.

The benefit Ponder has over Preordain is that you see 1 more card. This is a big deal actually and is the primary reason why Ponder is considered better than Preordain. This is especially relevant when you are looking for a specific card, like in traditional combo decks. Ponder is better at finding "That one card/class of cards" no matter the cost.

The benefit Preordain has over Ponder is that you can selectively NOT draw certain cards. In contrast, Ponder can move the good cards to the top, but you will draw the sub-par cards in the set of 3 eventually unless another effect intervenes. Preordain is better at getting your ratios right (whether we are talking land/spell ratio or threat/disruption ratio).

Fetchlands often render the benefit of Preordain obsolete, since you can just see more cards with Ponder and shuffle the bad ones away with a Fetchland. However, there are reasons why you would not want to use a Fetchland to clear the remaining cards from your Ponder-keep:
1. You don't want to play a land. For example, your fourth land in a Delver Tempo deck.
2. Your shuffle effects are more valuable. For example, in SDT + Brainstorm decks like Miracles.

To summarize, Preordain is better in decks that:
1. Use their cantrips for consistency rather than digging for specific cards AND
2. Do not have consistent access to or overload the use of shuffle effects (usually Fetchlands)

How does this apply to RUG Delver and Tempo decks in general?
They are the perfect example of a deck that cares about consistency over specific cards. All you want are 2 lands, 2 threats, and the rest disruption. Every additional threat/land (unless they are removed) is suboptimal to a Bolt or Force of Will. The ratio is what matters. Furthermore, playing your third/fourth land as a Fetch to clear up a Ponder is like losing a card (or a portion of one)! Since holding it could potentially be turned into a card by a Brainstorm - either being put back by or assisting a Brainstorm + shuffle. I submit that Ponder is slightly better at finding your second land when you only have one, since you get to see more cards and there might be a land 3-from-the-top (this is a situation where you have a specific card that you are looking for). However, Preordain is still better when there are 2-3 lands on top, since you likely only want one more land.

So what do you think? Should Delver/Tempo decks be running Preordain before Ponder?

Thanks,
Kendrick