The new Legacy metagame

[Jander78]

If you're not here to discuss the potential Legacy environment, don't post. Flames, insults, and spam will not be tolerated any further. Consider this an open warning.

[Crimhead]

Elves will obviously gain metagame share.

I do wonder where this is going to put Burn, though. With Counterbalance out of the picture, everybody playing BUG clusterfuck manabases being ideal PoP targets and Harsh Mentor being the new hotness (take that, fetches & DRS!), it should be significantly better in the new metagame.

Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

[Hanni]

Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

I think Burn has been excellently positioned, well before the announcement today. The shift to grindy midrange, especially with atrocious manabases like 4c Czech Pile, is prime for aggressive red strategies. With Burn now able to trim the clunk (Exquisite Firecraft), it's going to be even better positioned to crush the current metagame, until it shifts.

[Aggro_zombies]

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

[Hanni]

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

Sligh crushes midrange. It's hardest matchups are Br Reanimator and Turbo Depths, with ANT/TES slightly worse than 50/50 and Delver being slightly better than 50/50. Everything else is a pretty good matchup.

[CutthroatCasual]

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

+1 to all of the above except for the last point. Whitefaces will disagree all day without providing any supporting argument, but while CB was difficult for Storm decks to fight through, it's not like it was impossible to beat. Of course when games go long Storm is going to lose; that's how the deck works. I've been killed by ANT through an on-curve 2 CB as often as I've blind flipped just what I needed to in order to counter their go-spell.

I will say that Miracles definitely punched Storm in the gut, but the card that I contend actually killed the deck is Leovold. Being able to draw 10+ cards during the ANT player's go-turn means that you can pretty much find any answer that you need. Now, if decks start playing ETW as the payoff instead, that will change. But look at it this way:

• With Miracles in the format, Storm was effectively forced into going to Tendrils every time since ETW was less effective
• With Miracles and Leovold in the format, neither of Storm's finishers would get the job done since Tendrils now could be Mindbreak Trapped or Flusterstormed away after the opponent drew half their deck. AND the Storm player now could no longer cantrip to set up their go-turn
• With Miracles out of the format, Storm will be looking towards ETW as the main finisher as Leovold remains present, but the issue of Leovold preventing them from sculpting their hand remains

I don't think see Storm's numbers going up as much as you're anticipating.

[Crimhead]

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

Chalice is your premiere lock card...

...Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

Maybe Tezz will rise?

Sligh crushes midrange. It's hardest matchups are Br Reanimator and Turbo Depths, with ANT/TES slightly worse than 50/50 and Delver being slightly better than 50/50. Everything else is a pretty good matchup.

I think Burn has been excellently positioned, well before the announcement today. The shift to grindy midrange, especially with atrocious manabases like 4c Czech Pile, is prime for aggressive red strategies. With Burn now able to trim the clunk (Exquisite Firecraft), it's going to be even better positioned to crush the current metagame, until it shifts.

If we get (and keep) a tier-one aggro deck in the form of Burn or Sligh, that's almost worth trading our only hard (permission) control deck.

[Brael]

Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

I'm a pretty quality pilot, I don't play on MTGO though, or at big events.

I could see a properly built Burn list hitting T1, it's going to involve a lot of metagaming though in figuring out the opposing decks.

[Aggro_zombies]

+1 to all of the above except for the last point. Whitefaces will disagree all day without providing any supporting argument, but while CB was difficult for Storm decks to fight through, it's not like it was impossible to beat. Of course when games go long Storm is going to lose; that's how the deck works. I've been killed by ANT through an on-curve 2 CB as often as I've blind flipped just what I needed to in order to counter their go-spell.

I will say that Miracles definitely punched Storm in the gut, but the card that I contend actually killed the deck is Leovold. Being able to draw 10+ cards during the ANT player's go-turn means that you can pretty much find any answer that you need. Now, if decks start playing ETW as the payoff instead, that will change. But look at it this way:

• With Miracles in the format, Storm was effectively forced into going to Tendrils every time since ETW was less effective
• With Miracles and Leovold in the format, neither of Storm's finishers would get the job done since Tendrils now could be Mindbreak Trapped or Flusterstormed away after the opponent drew half their deck. AND the Storm player now could no longer cantrip to set up their go-turn
• With Miracles out of the format, Storm will be looking towards ETW as the main finisher as Leovold remains present, but the issue of Leovold preventing them from sculpting their hand remains

I don't think see Storm's numbers going up as much as you're anticipating.

It's not that Counterbalance was difficult to fight through, it's that it's mentally taxing to do it round after round after round. Fatigue is a real thing, and it's way more likely to happen when you're playing a deck with a large number of decision trees into matchups where every decision matters and your opponent is constantly threatening to just mise you with cards like Entreat. Why play a deck that requires perfect or near-perfect play all day when you can play a deck with slightly less theoretical power that forgives mistakes much more readily, like Delver?

Leovold is powerful, certainly. We'll see how much he shows up going forward. If the format has a much higher percentage of Lightning Bolts than it does currently, I suspect TNN will be the more attractive three-drop, and that's better for Storm.

[Scott]

By the way, when's the next big Legacy tourney? I'm super intrigued to see top 8s.

[TheManWithaPlan]

By the way, when's the next big Legacy tourney? I'm super intrigued to see top 8s.

I would highly recommend watching the Legacy Premier League on Thursday at 5:pm EST. Check out http://itsjulian.com/ for details, decklists and coverage archives.

[ubernostrum]

Small-efficient-creature aggro (i.e., Zoo) will not come back no matter how much people wish for it. Kird Ape is invalidated by far too many things in the format nowadays. Legacy for the foreseeable future is a BUG versus combo world with everything else second tier or lower, until later this year when Deathrite Shaman gets banned. After that, anybody's guess.

[Ellomdian]

Maybe Tezz will rise?

Shhhhhh... Don't tell anyone...

But seriously, the matchup against Miracles was fun, but slightly favored in Tezz's side. I think it gains a bit if the super fast, low to the ground aggro comes back in force. Chalice is a WONDERFUL card against UR/RUG variants. The dirty thing to keep in mind is that we keep Bridges, but there are likely less MD Decays elsewhere.

[LOLWut]

Small-efficient-creature aggro (i.e., Zoo) will not come back no matter how much people wish for it. Kird Ape is invalidated by far too many things in the format nowadays. Legacy for the foreseeable future is a BUG versus combo world with everything else second tier or lower, until later this year when Deathrite Shaman gets banned. After that, anybody's guess.

Utter fearmongering and oversimplification. Do come back in a year to confirm your prediction.

[Crimhead]

Zoo is dead forever, and Merfolk & Affinity likely didn't get much help.

Burn on the other hand was awfully good already, just lost a very bad match-up, and is getting a new toy. That deck might just get the push it needs.

[btm10]

I think the level 0 read of 'Storm and Elves get better' is spot on. I actually think Burn gets marginally worse since Miracles was a pretty good matchup (once Surgical almost completely displaced Rest in Peace) and the combo decks that will take up some of that meta share are tougher for it than Miracles was. It's still well-positioned and I'll probably play it sometimes, though it still has stigma issues that will keep its meta share lower than it should be.

A more interesting question is what becomes of Eldrazi. I have no idea how good Elves is against it, but if enough Storm shows up it stands to reason that Thought-Knot Seer will be there to pick up the slack. That being said, Eldrazi's​ matchup against BUG of any kind is pretty ugly, so if Leovold decks become the things to beat (which I'm somewhat skeptical about), I don't think Eldrazi will be able to rationalize its existence over something like Blood Moon Stompy.

I'm fascinated to know what becomes of Control. I don't think there's likely to be a tier 1 Blade Control deck in the equilibrium metagame; the BUG vs. Blade matchup was always pretty heavily weighted toward the BUG side, to the point where I felt favored with Hymn/Liliana BUG Delver against basically all of the Blade decks pre-Treasure Cruise. Mentor and Spell Queller provide those decks additional angles of attack, but we're firmly in Midrange territory at that point. I like Landstill's position if Shardless doesn't come back, since Standstill costs 2 to Leovold's 3 (and is potentially even playable in the same decks).

[Scott]

I would highly recommend watching the Legacy Premier League on Thursday at 5:pm EST. Check out http://itsjulian.com/ for details, decklists and coverage archives.

Will definitely be tuning in.

[Crimhead]

I'm fascinated to know what becomes of Control.

Savvy Miracles Pilots are trading their Tundras for The Tabdrnacle At Pendrell Vale.

[Maximus]

I don't think storm cares a lot about Leo, it's just another hatebear. I would still be much more afraid of Thalia between the two. It will be nice to not have to sideboard 8-9 cards for a single MU though. Also agree with whoever said the Level 0 prediction of storm and elves coming back. I'll take this one step further and call generic creature decks coming back as well. Maverick isn't nearly as "fair" a deck as people make it out to be.

[Scott]

I'm also intrigued to see if another tier 1 hard control list can emerge. I'm seeing people talk about things like a revamped Miracles/UW Control, Lands, U/B Tezz, and Landstill variants of UBGx & UWx colors.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but another cool one would be a Landstill deck in URx colors like this with things like Stifle and Fiery Confluence. No idea how good it is.