Why not use Night's Whisper or Painful Truths and have cards that always work well instead of just w/ Tireless Tracker..?
In blue I've been experimenting with Mystic Remora lately. It's cards, and an easy way to use mana.
Edit: Gotten a few games in with my list right now. It feels a bit anemic. Strix is definitely slower than Bob.
Land 23
4 Verdant Catacomb
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Bayou
1 Underground Sea
1 Tropical Island
4 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Island
1 Phyrexian Tower
1 Volrath's Stronghold
1 Bojuka Bog
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Maze of Ith
Creatures 19
2 Walking Ballista
4 Veteran Explorer
2 Deathrite Shaman
4 Baleful Strix
4 Tireless Tracker
1 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
1 Eternal Witness
1 Glissa, the Traitor
Spells 18
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
1 Mystic Remora
2 Crop Rotation
1 Collective Brutality
2 Abrupt Decay
1 Pernicious Deed
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Paradoxical Outcome
So my thoughts. Outcome is definitely strong, the best card with it is Deathrite Shaman by far, followed by Eternal Witness, followed by Nissa. Ballista sounds like it should be good, but Outcome is a massive mana sink and it becomes difficult to replay as a bigger version.
Strix doesn't play well with any of the best openings, it forces fetching duals early instead of opening on Forest. Speaking of Forests, 4 is not enough here 5 or even 6 might be correct.
Anyways, I like what the deck is doing, and it's nice that Glissa has more than just trinket text, but the curve is all wrong. Needs more 1's and 2's with fewer 3's. I think if you go with the Outcome strategy, Tracker has to come out for something else but there's not really a big list of 2 CMC or less creatures that hit hard enough to justify a slot, or that provide CA.
^^Gets at what I'm saying. I like some of the newer spells. I like instant-speed draw in a post-sensei's top meta. I don't think we need slyvan library in scape-fit. The junk-fit lists I'm still debating its inclusion.
@Arianrhod: Does Magus of the Moon interrupt a scapeshift kill? Because I think he's so strong in the SB for larger events. You could always sac him to therapy or something else if needed I guess.
Isn't costly plunder an almost strict upgrade to altar's reap? You can construct a situation where it is worse, your opponent mindslavers you and sac's your birthing pod, but these situations I would imagine are the exception not the rule. Perilous Research is different as the cost doesn't include sac-ing so a counter spell can ruin your outlet, but it may not be as dead late game against a deck like thieves or pile which are loaded up on spot removal and keep your creature count low.
I was never a huge fan of night's whisper, but I'll admit Painful Truths is gas. There is nothing wrong with the card but the life loss is not necessarily free, especially in non-Rhino builds.
I've only run 2 Remora in my BUG sideboard. How has it been main? You said the list itself felt a bit off but was this card helpful in a general meta or are you looking to move it back to the board/cut it altogether?
It's been fine main, but part of that is because I can bounce it to reset the cumulative upkeep.
I was testing the NO list with a few changes on Xmage last night. I didn't really ever cast NO but I did notice that the cantrip suite was very smooth.
I've been on BUG with the set of ponders and brainstorms, but 4 BS 4 Probe messes with the curve a LOT less. Not to mention those perfect Cabal hits :)
I'm still testing NO, but I think this configuration of cantrips is the real innovation for BUG.
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It's definitely a trade off... I hear ya, but brainstorm has treated me well enough. I missed having access to extra trackers and deathrites. The probes may be too much, though. It felt right when playing it, however
It's just, without top, it lacks the level of consistency I want, even with a set of gsz and I don't like the alternatives like library and mirri's guile. I have yet to try scroll rack, though...
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I can see where you're comming from. But consider this: if you have ramped with explorer there's not much downside to spend one mana for selection. If you haven't ramped the selection can make you find the missing ramp piece. In a sense Nic fit is a deck divided in two halves: the ramp half and the bomb half with GSZ being in both camps. I couple of cantrips may help tieing (?) the two halves together. I dont think the 8 cantrip shell is where you want to be, but maybe four brainstorm is sound?
The thing that strikes me as wierd about many BUG lists are the auto-include of baleful strixes. No other color combination in nic fit runs such amount of defensive creatures, right? Why not offensive blue stuff like Leo, clique and TNN? Nic fit is also a pretty good home for (the spell) counterspell. Play a threat, hold up unconditional countermagic.
Double blue is very hard on the mana, that's why I don't like Jace in Nic Fit. Clique and TNN have the same issue, as does Counterspell. Leo is a bit easier to play.
Using your scenario though, you're still asking for a bad color curve in the event that you haven't ramped because you need your first two land drops to be green and black, so you can only have a blue for Brainstorm if you play a dual land, which opens you up to Wasteland, and in turn risks your mana development.
I do agree with you about Strix, we usually consider it an auto include because the card just screams value, but the more I've played it in this deck, the more I don't think I want it. In order to play it, you need to open on 2 duals and it just seems to disrupt whatever else is going on.
Yeah you are right about the color problem. About strix I just remembered a bug list featuring 4 strix with the remark that it feels anemic. Sums it up.
So you want to your blue spell from turn 3 and onwards and ideally only one U in the mana-cost. Eventhough I have been sceptical of Paradoxical outcome (as it seems all about value and not about aggro) it seems like the right train of thought. And to be fair blue has better spells than creatures. Maybe there's more to explore here.
I'm inclined to agree with you guys on strix. I think I'll try cutting it. In my experience, it fogs 1 or 2 would-be attacks, then dies to deed/deluge. There's a lot of dnt in my area, so first strike and SoFaI really decrease its usefulness. Maybe removal on it's place or some more GSZ targets (for NO fit anyway)
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Outcome is definitely more of a value spell, what I'm finding more than anything is that it's an absolutely massive mana sink. To the point that I'm learning I can't use both Outcome and Tracker in the same deck. The best things to bounce are cards that give you mana (Deathrite Shaman, Nissa, Eternal Witness). Nissa and Eternal Witness are just fantastic cards to bounce in general. But, I'm having trouble finding a good replacement for Tireless Tracker, it feels like it needs to go and the same is true of Strix.
I'm not giving up on outcome yet, but it feels like I have to sacrifice all my other CA sources to make it work, so it's probably not where I want to be. I'll probably keep playing this for another day or two, see if anything comes to mind, and then go back to GB, because I think GB is the smoothest build.
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