That's the part that struck me. The only real decisions he was making was whether to mull and what to put back on Valakut lines. Considering it wins that fast usually with at least one piece of protection makes it the most broken of the broken decks we've seen in a long time.Originally Posted by FTW
No joke that Borne Upon a Wind list is maybe the worst Magic decklist I have ever seen in my life and I am embarrassed to be looking at it. I am actively cringing on behalf of anyone that thinks this is a good idea. The fact that it's not even running the 4th Borne is just like, the chef kiss little touch of shit icing.
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
You need to find any of 6 cards (3 borne & 3 awakening) among 60, after drawing over 20.
Hypergeometric distribution:
20 cards, P>92%.
25 cards (more realistic), P c. 97%.
If that's the reason you believe it's the wost decklist you've ever seen, you haven't seen many.
I'm not sure that this is looking at the right place for the bottleneck, or that "25 cards" really makes sense as a basis for calculations.
When I was trying to estimate how reliable born upon a wind was likely to be as a way to combo, I was thinking in terms of being able to hit enough spirit guides and a manamorphose to cast it. I imagine that most of the fizzles for that list happen when going all in only yields 2 spirit guides and no manamorphose. I guess the biggest thing that I overlooked in my estimates is that Summoner's Pact can act as ESG 5-8 and that awakening was an instant speed red way to turn cards over.
I do tend to think that Necrodominance is fundamentally busted and that it will probably find a ban in formats without ESG (so that this approach can't really work) as well.
It is not to evaluate the combo, but whether it was that moronic to not play the 4th borne, and clearly it is not. The 4th awakening might be a better idea, or to just keep the 3-3 split. I was only answering the rant I quoted, about borne being the bottleneck.
Yes. There are also builds with 4 Valakut Awakening 3 Borne putting up good numbers.
Valakut is the glue, functioning as either backup initial mana or a way to filter mana into cards. You need Valakut first more than Borne. Draw 30+ is much more likely to give lethal resources. With 15-19 cards, you could hit Borne but not have enough resources to go off (not enough mana or storm or no wincon) or not have Manamorphose (filter RG into UB to cast Borne), so the fizzle rate is much higher. With Valakut you get more resources to produce mana and find Borne in the top 30 cards (out of 52-55 in library).
This Necro-Borne deck already put up multiple MTGO League 5-0s Friday, Saturday and Sunday so far.
Saturday Challenge #1:
Maxtortion Top 8 (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/6451135#paper)
fivebrane got 34th place but 0-0, did not play the event?
Saturday Challenge #2:
L4rss0n went 3-3, 17/45. No one else played it.
Sunday Challenge #1:
MartinMedMitten 23rd 4-3 (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/6455285#paper)
UrzaEnjoyer 2-5
Nammersquats 2-3 drop
TonyScapone 62nd 1-4 drop
Sunday Challenge #2:
UrzaEnjoyer Top 8 (https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/6453837#paper)
Jeserfon 3-3
sandydogmtg 1-3 drop
1 Challenge Top 8 per day is decent, but not broken. I would have chalked this up to pilot error but Tony also did badly in the Sunday 64 Challenge.
Necro-Borne may keep doing well in Leagues, but it looks like UB Reanimator/Scaminator has enough free interaction to be a bad matchup, and that's 20-30% of the Challenge meta.
The level of reinventing the wheel here. What does this add to CRET Belcher or Oops All Spells? We already have all in turn 1 combo lists that are very consistent in the face of a goldfish, the problem is that Legacy isn't full of goldfish and you don't always win the dice roll.
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
No, you need to draw the cards that get you turn 1 Necro, and then you need your next 19 cards to have the right combinations of ESGs/SSGs + Manamorphose to even start doing anything else and then you need that anything else to like, y'know, actually be enough to win you the game, keeping in mind that spirit guides are not fueling storm and you have a lot of dead draws and still need to find your 1x Tendrils and have no actual spell multipliers like Song of Creation or Will or Past in Flames etc., all while drawing dead slots like Necro and Chancellor
And all of this isn't to say you can't get turn 1 wins, but there's already glass cannon decks that do that very reliably; what they can't do is deal with actual disruption effectively which is why they're low tier. So you're going to what, hope to do all of this while also hoping to draw the right number of Pacts and hoping your opponent can't stick anything like a Leyline or Veil, setting aside of course counters, discard, vexing bauble etc..?
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
What's different? It's not a turn 1 glass cannon like Belcher or Oops. 8 MD protection. Vulnerable to much less hate than Oops. The rate of turn 1 protected kills is higher than combo's been able to do.
Not invulnerable to disruption, but harder to disrupt than typical turn 1 decks.
If you look at the Challenge decks that beat it, they're extremely hostile to combo. 20-30% Scaminator with 6 Force 4 Daze 4 Grief for free interaction. Green Eldrazi with Chalice main + 8 storm hate in the board.
Neither Chancellor nor Force of Negation are great on the the draw. Something simple like a turn one grief taking your necro will be hard to come back from and this cannot be prevented by any of your protection spells. I guess the most important thing when playing this list is to win the die roll.
Storm count is not an issue at all. The main issue is finding a turn 1 necro, which was why I mentioned initially upon seeing the list that it may not be completely broken.
Also keep in mind these lists are not optimized at all. They will improve as time goes on.
Obviously no deck is unbeatable but this seems like a real deck to me and is far from a simple glass cannon because of all of the main deck protection. This deck is playing a lot more protection than Oops. There are ways to beat permanent hate (bounce) and veil (pact) that can and will get added to the list as time goes on.
If it starts to see more play its gonna warp the whole meta. Non blue decks really do not have great options (needle and flute is about it). The deck does not care about graveyard hate, dress down effects, etc.. Blue decks are going to be side-boarding into 8 Forces.
An interesting 4th place finish list from one of the challenges posted earlier in the thread:
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/6451126#paper
This is another obvious way to abuse Necro. If all players are depleted on resources, a resolved Necro effectively ends the game.
AllSpells is weak to Leyline of the Void and Surgical Extraction and Endurance, while Necro ignores them.
Chancellor's great against normal spells like Thoughtseize, Vexing Bauble or Spheres. It's just bad against free spells. If they go land + Grief or hold up Daze/Force without cantripping, that gets through Chancellor. That makes Scaminator a bad match if they win the roll.
But most decks don't have 14 0-mana interaction.
The SB is far from optimized. Leyline of Sanctity could protect against discard. ESG + Veil does too, but that's less reliable. Grief could answer Mindbreak Trap or Force of Vigor, but Pact may be better. The deck could also pivot to Leyline of Anticipation or Gemstone Caverns to do more on the draw.
Last edited by FTW; 06-17-2024 at 06:11 PM.
Belcher and Oops generally don't have 8 protection slots.
Can't wait for people to start playing 4 Gut Shot main in everything to punish Necro-ing to 1.
I was wondering about gut shot as a way to respond to orcish bowmasters, but I don't think it's going to be very effective against someone who's probably just drawn a couple of free counters.
I thought that "if you do" usually creates a 2nd trigger which you can respond to.
Would make Stifle also pretty neat but I'm probably wrong.
"When you do" does, but the card doesn't have a 2nd trigger. Can't be Stifled or Bowmastered after the life is paid.
The consistency is higher than it looks.
Turn 1 Necro: 8 copies (Necro, Beseech/Serum Powder)
Draw 19 needs to find Valakut or Borne (6-7 copies).
Mana includes 12 Spirit Guides (SSG, ESG, green Pact) + Rituals off unused Black (Petal, Mox from main phase)
Borne is sometimes harder to cast (need Manamorphose to convert RG into UB), so 3-4 Valakut digs deep when the resources don't come together.
4-of Beseech puts Tendrils on the stack or Valakuts can dig
After draw 30+ & Borne, the fast mana are enough storm for Tendrils without a multiplier. 2nd Valakut can also be a multiplier.
Other builds have shifted to Serum Powder and Brain Freeze, maybe with higher consistency.
Simulations show the deck is quite consistent. Beating disruption is the hard part. Deck arguably handles disruption better than other turn 1 decks, but it's still beatable.
Here is an example of a Breach list before it was banned: https://mtgtop8.com/event?e=24612&d=372162&f=LE
If you compared it to the Necro lists:
Consistency: assembling the combo is about the same when considering E-Tutor and Beseech. However, Breach does get cantrips which obviously improves consistency and makes it so you're not forced into mulling into oblivion. Breach could also Freeze itself to keep going to prevent fizzles. Without hate, Breach fizzle rate is basically zero. Advantage Breach?
Speed: considering Rituals, Necro is significantly faster. Advantage Necro.
Resilience: Main deck protection is about the same but Force is obviously better than stuff like Pact and Chancellor. Necro is immune to graveyard hate and probably marginally better against Chalice and that improves further with things like Boseiju. Toss up?
Misc: Breach has a legitimate plan-b with Mentor. Is there any type of plan b that Necro can legitimately incorporate? TBD.
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