This seems to be the problem fitting the card into any deck. How do you justify cutting a card that does 'something' for a card that loses you 2 life to thin the lib. I think Belcher is one of the few decks that would want to make that sacrifice. The other verdict being Burn. Ill try a list with the card and see how it goes.Originally Posted by BreathWeapon
IMO the best card to pull from your deck is probably ESG. SSG is better since its more on color, and your replacing a 'chrome mox' card, which will have the least effect on your decks performance. Would you rather have a free green mana or a free card? Chances are the card you draw will be more free mana.
Now playing real formats.
The problem with the card is removing a lot of cards on the margins (-1 Brainstorm, -1 Plunge into Darknes, -1 Chrome Mox, - 1 Cabal Ritual in TES for example) and then expecting the cycle to average out your deck. As long as you have a specific card to compare it against, it's a lot easier to judge.
Cutting Elvish Spirit Guide is a bad idea, Elvish Spirit Guide->Tinder Wall is really important, and in Belcher, the card should be either maximizing the deck's mana and threats or be cut altogether.
IMO, the question is disruption or no disruption? If the answer is no disruption, then add Street Wraith. If the answer is disruption, then add Xantid Swarm.
I don't see Wraith being good in combo at all, period. I see it making Ichorid become less shitty, but other than that it won't have a huge impact.
I see wraith as being very difficult to work into belcher. If you have a win condition already, then Wraith would be better off being an accellerant. If you don't have the win condition already, then you should've mulled (outside of hands with 2x wraith-especially on the draw).
Hmmm... it would be pretty broken in Ich, wouldn't it? More dredging power, can be removed to Ich... Looks like it's exactly what the deck needs.
Question for CRET Belcher. Say you're going in blind, Turn one-Game one, and you win the roll. Your hand is:
Lotus Petal
Rite of Flame
Rite of Flame
Seething Song
Simian Spirit Guide
Goblin Charbelcher
Burning Wish
Is it better to Belch with both lands still in the deck, and no permanent mana sources remaining, or is it better to pass the turn w/ 12 tokens in play? I'm leaning towards the Belch, as tokens can be answered via turn 1 BoP/Turn two Deed, Ghostly Prison in Stax, md clasm-etruth-plague, a faster kill or what have you. I'm still very much unsure though, what are everyone's thoughts?
yah, sure belch the hell out of em, its either you win, or you hit a land and then attempt to draw into 3 mana. (4x led = gg for that =]) Unless they are running needle or something, then you have a few turns before they can answer it (you hope)
Personally, I'd mull the hand.
1- Having a hand with just Burning Wish and a table with no permanents against the possibility of a FoW or a "misfire" means you've just let your opponent Time Walk themselves until you reach the ever critical LED (which is now the only thing they have to counter, seeing as you can't cast any future accelerants without a permanent + accelerant..meaning multiple turns down the way).
2- Your worst possible problem is still there: Bayou is in the deck. Land Grant is so crucial to the 1st turn play that I'd rather take 1 less card than rely on a roughly 60/40 chance that my "win" was just robbed from me by not getting 20 cards before it. Taiga will balance this out (and was the main reason I kept it in the build I played a few years back), but even then, still a huge risk.
3- There's a good chance even with one less card you've got a much more solid draw (or even a guaranteed win seeing Land Grant, barring no FoW).
Again though, I'm not accustomed to playing a Belcher deck that isn't primarily black in it's core. The ability to dig and setup along with proactive protection in SB (Duress rather than Swarm) vs the strict "topdeck to win" style of nothing but accelerants, I like knowing my deck has the option MD to try to fix a possible bad situation or recover faster than just topdecking.
And as for ETW, I'm still waiting for the day that people start packing their hate back into sideboards (especially with the rise of TES and fall of Solidarity, due to lack of players). The card is great after a 6-7 card storm count, but your still waiting 2 turns minimum for that resolved spell to officially kill the opponent. It really isn't going to be hard for decks to throw back in Orims Chants, Plagues, Pyroclasm, ETruths, EEs, Stifle, etc to either stall or kill them....and the deck is back to finding a new win condition to backup Belcher, again.
I'd go for Warrens first, using Guide>double Rite>Song. If the Wish is countered, I can still play Belcher and try to topdeck the LED/Rite/2 any sources. If it resolves, there're no counterable accelerants left so I get my 12 Goblins, and since I'm on the play, there're only like 2 decks in the entire format with any chance of not just rolling over and dying. The chance of hitting an MD FoW is much higher than the chance of hitting MD Pyroclasm (found and cast turn 2) or turn 1 MD Engineered Plague, turn 2 Deed (the most prominent Deed-deck, 4c Landstill, can't do that) or turn 2 exploded Explosives. I think the largest issue with going for the Belcher-kill is that it leaves you dead in water against FoW (you'd either have to burn all your non-Song accelerants, or Song and all but one of the others, so the chances of being able to go for EtW-kill at any point are slim). The hand is a definite keeper and unless you know opponent's deck, you should go for EtW-kill.
Eldariel had it right, I'm just going to go thru' the steps to understand the thought process behind his choices.
Assuming the opponent is on the draw and unknown, this is the correct course of action considering Force of Will.
Simian Spirit Guide -> Right of Flame -> Right of Flame with 4 mana floating, at this point, the opponent has to consider whether or not he should Force of Will the second Right of Flame to prevent an ETW ,and if he does, it is the least amount of damage done to the hand.
(Lotus Petal can produce G mana and add storm, so cast Right of Flame off of Simian Spirit Guide).
If the opponent doesn't cast Force of Will on the second Right of Flame, then cast Burning Wish, if the opponent sand bagged the Force of Will for the win conditon, he'll Force of Will the Burning Wish, and the deck can cast Lotus Petal, Seething Song, Goblin Charbelcher and attempt to top deck into the win.
That is the appropriate course of action when considering Force of Will, which leads the deck into an ETW kill, regardless, I would go for an ETW kill, because the Belcher has a huge chance of failing and allowing the opponent to either counter top decked acceleration or just beat down before the deck draws enough acceleration, and the right combination of acceleration.
@ Deathwingzero,
The hate hasn't gone any where, it's always been here, and we're playing thru' it.
Since this deck runs many more red ritual cards than TES is it safe for it to place a copy of Rite of Flame in the sb as a wish target? This sample hand reminded me of the situation.
Now playing real formats.
No, it reduces the number of 2 Right of Flame hands, the number of 1cc Ritual and Burning Wish for Right of Flame isn't mana efficient with out permanent mana and passing the turn.
You should note about the hand above that a smart opponent will FoW your Seething Song, still leaving you dead in water which is why I absolutely hate Seething Song and refuse to play any combo-deck until I can play all Rituals and 0 Songs. That would definitely make combo more T1-like and much more resilient to Forces. Also, this showcases why you should absolutely FoW Seething Song as a control-player. Denying a combo-deck 5 mana tends to be good for 3-4 cards and absolutely slows them down to crawl, not letting them get their Storm-cards off.
I disagree, after the Burning Wish the opponent sees that there are 3 cards left in Belcher's hand: he has no guarantee that he can counter a single mana source and win the game if those mana sources are all 0cc or Spirit Guides.
What if those last three cards were Land Grant, Chrome Mox and Elvish Spirit Guide? Force of Will on Chrome Mox means the deck can Land Grant for Taiga and discard Elvish Spirit Guide, so all the Force of Will did was increase the storm of ETW.
I don't think letting the Burning Wish resolve is a good idea.
No, of course you don't let Burning Wish resolve. However, the sequence of plays Belcher-player should do is:
SSG-Rite-Rite-SONG-Wish. Now, if Song gets countered, you're back to square one, just without much mana. If your sequence is:
SSG-Rite-Rite-Wish and you get the Wish countered, you have to play Petal and pop it before you can play Song>Belcher meaning that you'll be left with a Belcher, no mana sources and 1 point of manaburn to boot should the Wish get FoWed. SSG-Rite-Rite-Song means they need to counter Song and they don't know it (you might be holding Rite-Empty FTW), although any decent player will still counter it. Your Song will essentially be a dead card if you DO get countered, so having cast it is just good. Long story short, you want to save your Petal so you gotta cast Song first.
If the Belcher-player goes SSG-Rite-Rite-Wish, I'd bite it and FoW the Wish since else I'd probably lose anyways. You need to realize that if you make this series of plays, you're bluffing opponent to make the correct play.
I don't get it,
SSG->Flame->Flame->Song is a definite Force of Will on Song, leaving R in the mana pool and Burning Wish, Goblin Charblecher and Lotus Petal in hand. How is that better than SSG->Flame->Flame->Wish where the deck can cast Goblin Charblecher after the Force of Will and have some degree of being inevitable via top decking for mana. In the first hand, the deck has one mana and two win conditions, the second of which is going to be terrible with out a significant storm count and with creatures on the board, and both of which still have to be cast for more mana than it costs to activate the Goblin Charbelcher and win.
SSG->Flame->Flame->Song is the wrong line, IMO, drawing LED is almost worthless with that hand, while top decking LED is GG with Belcher on the board.
SSG-Rite-Rite-Song leaves you with a mana source left. If you just get a Charbelcher out there, you're left with lands+grants+guides+petals for mana sources, while with a Petal left, you're left with ~40 cards in your deck capable of producing more mana. I think it's likelier to find the mana to cast+activate Belcher with Petal left than find the 3 mana sources/LED for Belcher-activation.
This is actually the one combo deck that doesn't want to run Wraith, as it could potentially force you to draw one of your lands.
Presenting win condition number four,
Storm Entity, 1R
Creature - Elemental (TS) U
Haste
Storm Entity comes into play with a +1/+1 counter for each other spell played this turn.
1/1
So, Belcher averages about 3.5 storm a turn just in acceleration, and this card is base 1/1, that's a 4/4 to 5/5 Haste for 1R that can either be MDed or SBed and a 5/5 to 6/6 Haste with Living Wish for 2RG. If people start to counter the fourth mana source in order to prevent ETW, or if people counter the Goblin Charbelcher, Burning Wish or Living Wish, then this card can still be cast on the same turn as a two turn clock. I imagine this thing is the best "Man Plan" Storm combo could have besides Tomb of Urami.
I'm SBing one and considering MDing the other three over Xantid Swarm, both of them are good against Force of Will, Stifle and die to Swords to Plowshares, but Storm Entity doesn't die to direct damage and doesn't require the deck to pass the turn, while Xantid Swarm protects Burning Wish, Living Wish and LED hands.
Problem is, that's a pretty useless card for this deck. Belcher has no board sweepers or even spot removal, so after the turn 1 godhand of putting it into play large enough to be threatening (meaning something like 4-5 cards -> LW -> StormE), they can just block it continuously for a number of turns with chumps until they find spot removal, and you still need to recover for a main kill condition. Unlike Tomb, this has no evasion abilities. Flying > nothing.
Any number of decks in the top tiers at this point I'd say have a buffer of probably 10 life, meaning that's the point that the deck would actually have to care about combat based damage. Goblins and Thresh are the only decks capable of bypassing that rule (off the top of my head), due to "on-spot enlargement", via Threshhold and things such as SGC/Piledriver. FS with equip can also be able to overcome 10 dmg in a single step, and a "maxed" ETW can also do that, due to the fact that it's multiple little creatures, but this guy doesn't get that benefit. No equip, no evasion, no protection = no need.
One of the important things to take into consideration is that this card can be cast along side another win condition, presenting the opponent with two threats, and aggro-control should be SBing out its Swords to Plowshares against Belcher.
Also, after Burning Wish->Diminishing Returns it's the equivalent of putting a 10/10+ Haste onto the board on turn one.
I think it has some merit.
4 mana for a Living Wish to be a credible threat would really lower the threshold to do something relevant... and in the main it can be quite nice alongside a few goblins.
Since it's not that threatening compared to the other win conditions, I would only run it in a r/g list though. If you are willing to spread over three colours, you can do better.
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