I have been testing with Manamorphose and have found it to be semi useful. I like it because I can now run 1 Taiga and no Bayou but still support Dark Ritual. I will keep testing and keep everyone updated...
Team Fat Man & Little Boy
Originally Posted by pingveno
Spoils of the Vault != Street Wraith.
Wraith draws an unpredictable card. Spoils is a tutor with a 9 out of 10 chance of putting your win condition, or a win condition enabler, directly into your hand, and a 1 in 10 chance of bringing on a loss that you likely would have incurred anyway (after all, your best-at-the-time win condition was deeper in the deck than your life total...would you really have survived long enough to hit an alternate win?).
FoW is what it is....if they have it, they have it. If it was Demonic Tutor instead of Spoils, it would only have a 1/10 better shot at winning you the game, as the result of the tutor would be as likely to be countered, and would take you just as long to ramp back up.
Of course, you have alot more experience in this area than most of the rest of us, and the numbers to prove it, so maybe I'm just completely wrong here.
The only flaw in your logic is that Spoils costs you aand Street Wraith is free...
Team Fat Man & Little Boy
I don't see how that makes a difference...or is a flaw in my logic, for that matter. They're two completely different cards with completely different uses. I wouldn't run them both in the same deck, for sure. In fact, I wouldn't run Street Wraith at all.The only flaw in your logic is that Spoils costs you a
Street Wraith works against your Spoils tutoring power by reducing the number of cards you can dig without dying by 1 (2 lost life and 1 gained card), while giving you almost nothing useful in return....whereas Spoils gives you a win condition.
Well I mean you can run Spoils if you want. All I'm saying is you're putting yourself at risk of losing the game. You need to ask yourself:
Would you feel comfortable taking a deck with Spoils of the Vault into a major tournament setting knowing there's control everywhere? It just makes it harder to handle mentally too because you already have to worry about the control match-up. Spoils can be good at end of turn, that much I'll grant you. But I would never feel comfortable casting it in a big tournament.
I used to play Spoils in Mask-Nought years ago in the old 1.5 and I really liked it. But it makes your deck far too inconsistent to win in today's meta-game. Basically what I'm saying is: Make your opponent beat you. Don't beat yourself.
I'm not sure if anyone has suggested this, but I think Summoner's Pact may be an inclusion in G/R Belcher. It tutors Elvish Spirit Guide/Tinder Wall for free, adding to a storm count, and allows mana acceleration and deck thinning. However, It's usually used when the combo is almost out, or when we are confident on going out. Just a thought.
I personally think Manamorphose is a strong inclusion. It makes the deck 56 cards, mana fixes for wish targets, and adds to storm count, satisfying all the requirements for Belcher combo to go off.
I don't think that Pact should be played for their storm value. You'd need to come up with the 2GG on the next turn if you plan to use Empty the Warrens.
Agreed. You're more likely to go off with Empty the Warrens than you are with Belcher, due to effectively running 7 copies (3x EtW, 4x Burning Wish). Pacts are bad new in Belcher.
What's happening with that program that was going to find the fastest possible belcher list?
I think it is not possible to write a programm for this....
“Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn.
I wonder why Darksteel Ignot isn't included. I thought first turn wins were a good thing. Has anyone mentioned this yet?
Survival will be good forever... kinda like a maraschino cherry.
Darksteel Ingot? This does not help you for a first turn win, you are loosing two mana by casting this. even if you had three permanent mana sources to play this with there are still better options.
QFT...what purpose does the Ingot serve?
Team Fat Man & Little Boy
I assume he meant Serum Powder. Same set, same mana cost, they both tap for a mana.
Where is your math to backup the 1 in 10 chance? I'm pretty sure it's more (14 percent with a life total of 20).
Your not serious are you?
Team Unicorn is too hetero for me.While this is close it's still wrong. Every one knows it's an orgy of unicorns.******s?
TeaM NOVA for life.
He obviously means Serum Powder.
It's only 14% if cast on turn 1, so that's a 1/7 chance. This number drops with every card drawn.
I figured a 1/10 estimate was a good assumption for an average game where you don't God-hand the first turn (maybe 1 mana shy), and manage to make it to turn 3 before either taking on measurable damage from creatures or outright winning, since the creature drops tend to start around turn 2.
So 1/8 or 1/9 would be a more accurate assumption, now that I think about it.
It seems like one of the major questions for belcher's main deck is whether or not to include Spoils of the Vault. We have a question of power vs. consistency, spoils offers to streamline the deck and increase its speed but possibly at the cost of a game loss. I think the best way to really analyze this card is to start with a purely statistical analysis and let people take from that what they will.
a page or two back ratzes posted this:
If you have 53 cards left in the deck, spoils has a:
(49!*(53-20)!)/(53!*(49-20)!) = 13.97% of killing you searching for a 4 of.
If you have 52, (48!*(52-20)!)/(52!*(48-20)!) = 13.28%
If 51, (47!*(51-20)!)/(51!*(47-20)!) = 12.59%
If 50, (46!*(50-20)!)/(50!*(46-20)!) = 11.90%
this is all assuming you are at 20 life.
now let's assume you are playing 3 copies of spoils MD which seems to be the general consensus for people who run them. This gives you roughly a 37% chance of drawing one in your opening hand (rounding up a tad).
also suppose the tournament you're playing in will have 5 rounds of swiss and a top 8 - if you make it to the finals the most games you could possibly play is 24, so it is fair to estimate that in about 9 of those games spoils will be in your opening hand.
If you play spoils every game that you draw it, you should lose 1 game because of the card (keep in mind I have been rounding up whenever possible).
In my experience belcher mulls itself into oblivion at least this often - and you must consider that having even one copy of spoils in your deck will reduce the number of times you need to mull.
So, what to take from this? Personally I play two copies of spoils in my list and most tournaments that I take it to will not have 5 rounds of swiss plus a top 8. This analysis is far from exhaustive but I thought it might help to shed some light on the debate.
Yeah I think I meant Serum Powder. The one that gives a free mulligan. I would think this lets you run 56 card decks.
Theres also that random card regrowth that might be breakable with mana accell in the new set.
Survival will be good forever... kinda like a maraschino cherry.
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