I never said Pyroclasm was bad. In fact I said it didn't help much and that based on those games I could see an argument for cutting it. At least thats the way I was hoping people would interpret my statement on Clasm.Originally Posted by deadlock
Anyway, I think my memory was a bit hazy when I typed up that Pyroclasm never mattered. It would have actually mattered once, but my friend didn't draw his Clasm after digging a lot.
All I was trying to do is provide you guys with some information here and shed some light on the Goblins matchup. I have never played DS nor am I planning to pick it up anytime soon. I'm not even sure why I am trying to help another deck than Goblins get better, I guess I just like discussing Magic.
I just think Ponder is the nut high and I can't see an argument for not playing it. Space is not an issue as it cantrips anyway, so you can just cut additional copies of cards because you will see them just as much anyway. I like to compare cantrips to the imaginary card 0 --> draw a card. They thin out your deck and make your deck more consistent. I think consistency is very important if you are playing a card like Dreadnought because you need 2 lands, Stifle, Dreadnought, protection everytime you play it. A 7 card deck with all 1 ofs will give you the same opening hand each and every time. A 14 card deck with all 2-ofs is going to give you a ton of different opening hand and is thus less consistent. This is the concept of consistency. I hope I made my point clear this way, I'm not really used to writing the concepts I use when designing/playing a deck down on paper. I hope a better writer than I am will write an article about this sometime.
In short: Ponder makes the deck more consistent, which is exactly what a deck with a 2 card combo that needs protection wants. I haven't even mentioned what Ponder does to your mulligan ratio, but let me tell you: it makes you much less prone to mana flood/screw.
The only downside of Ponder is that you are weaker against Chalice for one. And that's a legit reason not to play it, if you are expecting a lot of Stompy/Stax decks.
Anyway, Duncan (my friend) told me he would register here and comment about what he cut in order to make room for Ponder so I'll leave it to him.
Maybe i am off, but the way i see it is that Ur Dreadstill is a (combo) controll deck with a really low curve, Nought is just an option - not a mandatory.
I dont play it foremost because its a sorcery and it doesnt help in the case i open with colorless mana open. These hands were it would help (1 blue source, no Brainstorm / Top) are extremely rare.
Keeping mana open on turn one is also good because of enemy Dazes, the option to Stifle a Fetch or use an Brainstorm to find a counterspell / set up turn two plays.
I always smile if someone opens with ponder against me, because it means that i can Daze his turn two spell or if i am on the play, can drop something nasty turn two (not turn one creature -> Standstill usable turn two).
Maybe for the greem splash version it fits, because its more Threshold like
BBB
I don't see what Ponder has to do with you being able to Daze a spell turn 2 or drop a Standstill. Your argument doesn't invalidate my points in any way. If the opponent instead played Nefarious Lich in that slot you would also be able to play Daze or Standstill.I always smile if someone opens with ponder against me, because it means that i can Daze his turn two spell or if i am on the play, can drop something nasty turn two (not turn one creature -> Standstill usable turn two).
Also take into account that Ponder does not only fix your early game, it's also good late game. I dare say it's even better than Brainstorm in the lategame.
I had similar results going 5-5 Pre Board testing with my 'mates here in VA. I used a U/G version of Dreadstill packing 'goyf and I tested against Templar Goblins. I had issues with Lackey on the play, but found that 2nd turn Dreadnought is often more than Goblins can handle. Mostly the matches boiled down to a few things
1. Lackey
2. Dreadnought
3. Thoughtseize taking Dreadnought
4. Warren Weirding sometimes killing Dreadnought
I find it more than a little strange that your friend boarded out Counterbalance. I'm certain boarding out at least 3 Standstill would be better because of AEther Vial. I'd also like to know what he cut for Ponder.
EDIT: Mantis, this talk that Ponder is better than Brainstorm in the late game is just crazy talk. Brainstorm draws 3 cards, it doesn't rearrange the Top 3 and let you draw the one you want.
Brainstorm requires a Fetchland.. But it doesn't actually matter if Brainstorm or Ponder is better, you run them together. Ponder makes Brainstorm even more powerful as it's yet another shuffle effect.
He also cut Standstill. He boarded in 3 BEB and 2 Pyroclasm and 2 Pithing Needle for 3 Counterbalance and 4 Standstill.
This would be better I think:
+3 BEB, +2 Pyroclasm
-4 Standstill, -1 Counterbalance/Trickbind/whatever.
Removed the list by DK's request.
Last edited by Mantis; 01-12-2009 at 12:26 PM. Reason: Removed the list by DK's request.
Ponder is a great card but an iffy inclusion in any deck that would like to keep blue open on turn one for Stifle or Brainstorm.
If you guys have problems with Aggro decks, why don't you just run an UGr version. I really think it's so much better. I faced Goblins twice on tournament with my UGWr list and Tarmogoyf, Swords, BEB and Firespouts are pretty good against them.
1st game, I usually go for dreadnought stifle quickly, because they do not have a revelant answer, but game 2 or 3, just go with Goyfs. + Never underestimate the power of Mishra against Goblins, I find it really good.
It does not have to be played on turn 1, it's actually still fine to play on turn 21. Also, Brainstorm is like a bad Opt if played on turn one. It's way better on turn 2 in conjunction with a fetchland OR a Ponder ;).
Hi guys!
I'm the friend Mantis is referring to. This whole Ponder debate made me sign up to The Source for defending our case.
I feel Ponder makes this deck even better than it already is. I feel most of you guys can't get past the idea that you don't have to play Ponder on turn 1 so you CAN leave mana open for Stifle/Brainstorm. On top of that you are running the Ponder vs. Brainstorm discussion, which is not an issue, because I run both.
Reasons why I believe Ponder is good:
- It can dig 4 cards deep on turn 1 to find your missing Stifle/Dreadnought/protection, therefore enabling more turn 2 protected 12/12 tramplers. Or to find your counterbalance for turn 2, while at the same time putting the right cmc-card at the top of your library. (all of this Brainstorm can do too).
- It is an extra shuffle effect after Brainstorm or with Top.
- If you draw it mid/late-game you don't have to have a shuffle effect to make it effective.
- It is more versatile than the cards I have cut for it (from Roodmistah's UR list: 21st land, 4th Daze, 2nd Explosives, 3rd Trinket Mage). I don't miss any of the cards I have cut for it, except for maybe the 4th basic Island when splashing another color (I'm not completely set on this) and playing against stax.
- It is a sorcery so it pumps Goyf (when splashing green, which I do at the moment).
- It is blue and therefore pitchable to FoW.
Overall it smoothens the decks draw even more. In about 40 games I think I have mulliganed only twice.
Aside from the Ponder debate, I think Dreadstill is a strong deck and cool to play. This deck makes me like to play Legacy (I'm a Vintage player by heart).
Last edited by DKK; 01-12-2009 at 11:14 AM.
Don't hate the player, hate the game..
Unlike tres.hold, you don't have to cast ponder on turn. Others have pointed it out already. You can keep the mana open for stifle, although more and more people are playing around it anyway.
Personally though, i love to cast first turn ponder because it allows me to set up my game for the next turns. Also, it can increase the chance of having a fow/daze/CB in hand
Definately the second best draw/tutor of legacy (after brainstorm)
But i can understand people not running it...
4 standstill
2-3 sensei's divining top
and 4 brainstorm can be enough in some matchup. But in the games where you side out Standstill, its good to have 3-4 more draw cantrip
Robert
That does sound like some reasonable cuts! Given that there are a 7 colorless sources and only 21 lands, your deck sounds like it would be more consistent. Although, given that you are cutting actual business and would only have 2 3CC cards for counterbalance I am intrigued.
What do your current lists look like, if you don't want to share them with the world then PM them to me by all means, as I like what you are doing A LOT!
I think Ponder would be VERY worthwhile to test. My goal in optimizing would be to make the probabily be very small, that an opening hand does not contain an island and a cantrip. Saving on the mulligan is worth it to me.
BTW welcome to the source. I have collaborated with Mantis before, years ago on CAL and I am glad he has brought over another worthy mind.
I don't feel cutting those are bad plans, except the 2nd EE which I love so much to cut. But in addition of the green splash, I would hardly know what to cut. In UGr list, we already cut the 3rd Mage. So we have to find four other ones: -1 Trickbind, -1 dreadnought are fines. I feel like cutting a Standstill would be ok because of ponder is doing a similar job. I really do not see the last one, so I guess you would stick to 3 goyfs?
// Lands
3 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
3 Island
4 Mishra's Factory
3 Wasteland
2 Tropical Island
2 Volcanic Island
// Creatures
3 Phyrexian Dreadnought
3 Tarmogoyf
2 Trinket Mage
// Spells
4 Ponder
3 Standstill
1 Trickbind
4 Stifle
4 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
3 Daze
1 Engineered Explosives
3 Counterbalance
2 Sensei's Divining Top
3 Spell Snare
I do not feel confidant with this list at the first regard, but would need good test.
Idk, although testing is required it seems like you are pushing to hard to make it work. You are trying to fit it in by cutting the consistancy of the deck and i think that is a huge mistake. But like you said testing is required
Firstly, never cut Standstill. If you want to run Ponder in a green splash build, do as Rich Shay did that one time and cut the Trinket Mages and Trinkets for 2 Ponder and Krosan Grip.
I agree. Whatever, as I tested, I do not want to drop to 20 lands, nor to 3 standstills. I just think Ponder doesn't deserve a spot in this thight MD.
Did this ever get answered? I'd still love to hear how this testing went, and if you're keeping those sweepers out.
Hallo,
I am also thinking about adding Ponder to the deck, but I don´t know what to cut...
There is an idea in my mind about cutting:
1x Engineered Explosives - it is quite situation card and I have 2 in MD that I feel, they are too much.
1x Phyrexian Dreadnought - often I am using stifles for some other things, that Stifling the Dreadnought´s CIP effect. And it happened to me, that I have Dreadnought in hand and can´t play it.
For these 2 cards I want to add 2x Ponder.
I will NOT CUT:
3rd Trinket Mage, because it can find needed Dreadnought (one will be out), Explosives and SDT.
1 land - The 21 land manabase is really perfect and fit´s me really well.
Just for your information here is my decklist:
// Deck file for Magic Workstation (http://www.magicworkstation.com)
// NAME: ZUZY – Dreadstill UGr
// Lands
3 [TE] Wasteland
3 [R] Tropical Island
3 [ALA] Island (1)
4 [4E] Mishra's Factory
3 [ON] Flooded Strand
3 [ON] Polluted Delta
2 [R] Volcanic Island
// Creatures
4 [FUT] Tarmogoyf
3 [FD] Trinket Mage
4 [MI] Phyrexian Dreadnought (one will be cut for 1x Ponder)
// Spells
1 [TSP] Trickbind
2 [FD] Engineered Explosives (one will be cut for 1x Ponder)
3 [CS] Counterbalance
4 [OD] Standstill
2 [CHK] Sensei's Divining Top
4 [SC] Stifle
4 [NE] Daze
4 [AL] Force of Will
4 [MM] Brainstorm
// Sideboard
SB: 2 [PT] Pyroclasm
SB: 2 [SOK] Pithing Needle
SB: 2 [TSP] Krosan Grip
SB: 1 [SHM] Firespout
SB: 3 [B] Red Elemental Blast
SB: 3 [B] Blue Elemental Blast
SB: 2 [TSB] Tormod's Crypt
What do you think?
ZUZY
I wouldn't cut any Standstills ever. I did cut one Spell Snare, which sometimes feels too narrow. And yes, I'm running only 3 Goyf. As of now, that has been fine with me.
Adding green and 4 ponder has made sideboarding a whole lot more difficult I have to say. Deciding which cards to remove from the main is harder than before.
In testing, I sometimes felt I missed the 21st land against mana-denial strategies (white stax, I can imagine it applies for TA too). Therefore I might cut Ponder #4 for Island #4.
I'm discussing and testing a lot these days, so more info to come.
- DKK
Don't hate the player, hate the game..
From someone that actually understands probability and statistics I would love to know the probability of opening with:
at least 1 Blue Source OR Fetch
AND
at least 1 Brainstorm OR Ponder
For the case of 20 and 21 lands (assuming 7 are colorless 3 waste + 4 factory) for all possibilities of 4 Brainstorms and 0 to 4 ponders.
I think that will give me an objective place to start tweaking to minimize mulligans mathematically.
Last edited by jazzykat; 01-13-2009 at 12:11 PM. Reason: Clarification
EDIT: Percentages deleted, because the model was wrong. On page 56 the correct probabilities are shown.
EDIT: While obtaining further probabilities (the one described below) from my little model in excel I found some things which I believe are wrong, so if anyone can check the numbers above I would appreciate it.
A more interesting statistic in the light of mulligan decisions is the sum of the following two probabilities:
A. The probability of having zero blue sources in your opening hand.
B. The probability of having exactly one blue source and zero Ponder/Brainstorm in your opening hand.
These are the hands you will mulligan most likely.
(Hands like: Blue Source, Stifle, Dreadnought, 2 Force, 2 Random Blue cards on the draw are hands you probably will keep, but that is not taken into account here.)
Last edited by DKK; 01-15-2009 at 05:17 PM.
Don't hate the player, hate the game..
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