It's not perfect, neither prevalent. A Natural Order in your first 10 cards? 50%. Also you need a creature/accel? 50%. That is 25% of the chance to possibly win on Turn 5. With the same odds Tendrils decks can win Turn 1. Landing a Progenitus would usually win the game in 2 Turns against Thresh and Merfolk, but by no means against Landstill, Dredge, Combo, Goblin, Stax.
I think Natural Order helps improve the Rock Archetype and Rock was heavily Green before the inclusion.
Cavius's latest banned user name is MTG-Guru, at least your name is far more modest.
And of course Stiflenought is still the thing that wins with counter backup kind of regularly on turn 4, which is when Progenitus would normally just be hitting play in most situations. Every deck I build worries about a turn 2 dreadnought and how to plan for that (if possible even given the build and timing.) I don't worry about NO + Progenitus at all because there are so many ways to die by the time it lands and if I get beat with 3 land on the board that's my fault not some two card combination.
You're neglecting the fact that it still requires two cards. You're also neglecting the fact that it would take 6 turns for you to win the game IF you cast it on turn four without it being disrupted.
Go ahead and duress or cabal therapy your opponent for FoW, and then sac your green creature to flash it back to get rid of that daze, or swords, or wrath of god, or whatever. Natural Order just isn't that good.
You said it. The Thresh builds that play NO don't run a ton of creatures. It's really a two card combo, and every deck in the format runs ways to deal with creatures. Decks like Epic Survival run too many creatures for you to kill them all, but NO Thresh
is green creature light.
The combo is strong. But it isn't as strong as Dreadnought - Stifle, because, as mentioned, the blue shell is better than the green shell. After you resolve Natural Order, you still have to pass the turn twice. That gives your opponent time to look for answers. Now, they do have to be specific answers, because, as you mentioned, you can't Swords Progenitus. However, every color has access to these answers.
It isn't as strong as Ad Nauseum, because that deck is faster and can run almost as much disruption. It's strong, but not broken.
InfoNinjas
I have tested all kind of NO combo, and i can say that this kinda of deck is at most tier 2. Your ideal hand is still very bad against any countertop decks.
Countertop packs vendilion clique, top to let fow on the top of the library and being discard proof, they can sword your turn two drop, some version play medling mage/gaddock in sb. Furthermore, a resolved counterbalance means you are in a bad postition cause lot of versions plays sower and they can counter close to each spells you are playing.
Goblin doesn't fear at all this kinda of hand if they start and lay a turn one lackey, you have almost lost the game. Goblin plays WW to destroy your wall, also nowadays goblin plays 3 perish in sb as they should.
Mefolk is also hard, they can play a turn two standstil that you have to answer, they pack cursecatcher/daze/fow/wasteland and a resolved progenitus is often to slow to race them. Your turn three progenitus means you are killing them turn 5, what's kinda slow.
Against standstil, they will laugh at your progenitus and just play wrath/humility/moat...
Goyf sligh/zoo can race taht quite easily.
I don't want to say that NO.deck sucks but for the moment, these decks are not competitive, but are in developpement (I am still testing these decks). Maybe something good will arise, maybe not. This combo is very fair, and not at all banworthy.
The difference between Dragon Stompy starts and a resolved NO is that you can deal with the stuff Dragon Stompy powers out SO EASILY. Swords to Plowshares on your Dragon after you play Seething Song, Mox, etc means I just like, 3-for-1'd you. You're going to to play Magus? I float mana for Smother/StP. If I resolve NO, you basically cannot do anything to remove it with most decks MD, and you have to hope you can race me.
Tendrils is also vulnerable to alot of combo hate that NO is not.
Your percentages are off. When I run 6-8 fetchlands that can fetch a Dryad Arbor, 4 Wall of Roots, 4 Tarmogoyf, 4 BoP/Elves in a deck, I think my chances of getting a creature to sac in the first 4 turns are damn near close to 100%, meaning I only have to draw an NO to complete my combo. If you also run stuff like SDT, it makes it that much easier.
Of course, the beauty of NO is that you DON'T necessarily need to combo out every time. If you run Rock, you can just play the aggro or control game, then randomly win after casting Smothers/Deeds/Pulse/Vindicate on your opponent's good stuff, and depleting his hand with discard.
StifleNaught wins on turn 4 if it's lucky. Do you realize the likelihood of assembling all of those cards that early? You need Stifle, Naught, counterspells.
If you run NO, all you need is one of your fetchlands to get Arbor, or one of your many walls/goyfs/birds, and NO. That's it.
Also, you better hope you have CounterTop assembled before you play StifleNaught, because someone is just going to StP your Naught and 2-for-1 you. Can you StP Progenitus? Nope.
I wasn't comparing Progenitus with Dragon Stompy starts, because it's like comparing a lawn-mower with a comet. I was saying that even decks without real answers can just outrace it. I admit it is pretty difficult, but it's not like it's impossibile. Progenitus hits the board mid-late game and by the time you can cast it your opponent has pretty much taken you to the 1-digit life count, if not overwhelmed you. I'm referring to Zoo, Goblin, and Dragon Stompy. Other decks usually counter NO or kill it in other manners. Stifle/Nought is much harder to deal with, because it's quicker, and even if da big lobstah is both a creature and an artifact, thus making it easier to answer, it is the shell that makes it stronger. As posted above, blue shell > green shell. Speaking generally, I find NO it to be pretty fair, and not format-warping. Good, not broken. Otherwise we would all be playing Progenitus.
0.05.14 [Digital Devil] <Digital Devil> Ach! Hans, run! It's the Tarmogoyf!
0.05.17 [Hans (GER)] <Hans (GER)> ...
0.05.20 [<System>] <System> Player Lost
Nah, this guy can't be Cavius. Cavius would know how NOT to triple-post.
Anyway, are you honestly saying NOGenitus is more inherently broken than Stiflenaught or Storm Combo? Then you seriously have to revise your opinion about this format's clock. NOGenitus is good because it's extremely splashable- everyone and their dog is already playing Goyf anyway, so they might as well run some more critters + NO + Progenitus. But I've seen a lot more players lose the game after they got Progenitus into play than after they resolved Ad Nauseam, for example. The nature of Stiflenaught (in good Dreadstill lists) makes it 1: a higher speed of clock for the deck, but not necessary. 2: repeatable, which NOGenitus is a lot less. Also, the shell for both is different, and I daresay the shell for Dreadstill is better than the Rockshell.
Edit: discard is also at least as lethal to NOGenitus as it is protective.
You're assuming that the NO player has played nothing up til the point he casts NO. lol.
The fact of the matter is, Dragon Stompy starts are terribly vulnerable to 2-for-1s and worse. NO is not. NO is superior to any kind of threat Dragon Stompy can produce.
You're making all kinds of assumptions and broad generalizations, and it makes me wonder if you've ever even played against an NO deck.
Stiflenought is an "oops I win" combo in the opening hand against most opponents. It's not foolproof but it goes all the way a huge percentage of the time that you see it.
Your broken opening for NO + Progenitus requires that you get to 4 mana, through the Stifle/Wasteland/bad draw maze, that you are able to successfully cast it after you get there, and that the opponent doesn't have some way to get rid of or nullify Progenitus even after it lands. That's kind of a hugely conditional "oops I win".
Stiflenought you just cast and either the opponent has an answer or he loses and you get to do that on turn 2 at times, something you'll never get to do with NO + Progenitus. Humility doesn't save people from an early dreadnought because it can't land fast enough to do so.
LOL... it is infinitely easier to get rid of Naught once it hits play than Progenitus. I can count on one hand the answers people play to Progenitus MD.
Practically every removal in the format deals with resolved Naught.
It is so easy to answer Stiflenought with the targeted removal everyone plays. If they do answer it, the game is likely a blow-out after that because they just 2-for-1'd you. An early Progenitus is almost impossible to answer for most decks.Stiflenought you just cast and either the opponent has an answer or he loses and you get to do that on turn 2 at times, something you'll never get to do with NO + Progenitus. Humility doesn't save people from an early dreadnought because it can't land fast enough to do so.
I played against Federico Testa (top16 @Annecy) and crushed him like a bug with Angel Stompy. I said, Angel Stompy. This is far to be considered a good deck anymore (and I say this with tears dropping from my eyes). Imagine what competitive decks can do. Maybe I was lucky, but I generally say that NO can be answered with much more ease than, say, Dreadnought, because the shell they're in are different. If you're talking about how it's easy to assemble the pieces of the combo, I know it's not difficult to have a green creature on the board, but 'Nought builds usually run Standstill/Top/Brainstorm/Trinket Mage, so it's not like Progenitus is better than 'Nought. They bot fit the surprise-win role, just like in different ways. And both ways are fair.
P.S. NO is still a -1 card. That's why I say it is fair and far to be considered broken.
P.P.S. The thread is about NO, not Dragon Stompy vs. NO.
0.05.14 [Digital Devil] <Digital Devil> Ach! Hans, run! It's the Tarmogoyf!
0.05.17 [Hans (GER)] <Hans (GER)> ...
0.05.20 [<System>] <System> Player Lost
Because there's absolutely no deck that drops Standstill after it drops Naught. And what is your definition of "early Progenitus"? Besides, if Progenitus is answered (Diabolic Edict, Wrath of God, Innocent Blood, WARREN WEIRDING, all of these still show up) you also just got a 2 for 1 against you. Just getting one 2 for 1 doesn't mean the game will become a blowout, that's just stupid.
NO decks win on turn 5 if it's lucky. Do you realize the likelihood of assembling all of those cards that early? You need Natural Order, preferably protection, a resolved green creature, and a minimum of 2 green mana and 4 lands in play.
If you run Stiflenaught, all you need is two mana, Stifle, and Dreadnaught. That's it. (In addition since you are playing blue you have plenty of filtering effects)
Also, you better hope you don't get fucking DAZED. Oh that's right, you used your thoughtseize to get rid of that instead of something more relevant. God forbid they have two counters because then you are fucked. And god forbid their deck could possibly win before turn 5.
Most decks that run Stiflenaught don't rely on the combo as an end-all be-all. There are a few combo decks that rely on the combo and hope for the best like Nourishing Lich, but even storm decks have multiple outs. So your argument that NORock has other ways to win can also apply to Dreadstill/Stiflenaught/whatever.
I've seen progenitus like, once, maybe. People are actually playing that garbage?
Everyone in this thread is too interested in dredging up the most obscure corner-cases (Edict effects pwn Progenitus, despite the fact that NO player will often have more than one creature, and Edicts are rarely run MD) and random anecdotes (I crushed some random guy like a bug with my Angel Stompy deck once, therefore it sucks) to seriously discuss this issue.
NO has the strong potential to top8 and win tournaments, and it's only a matter of time before someone does win a big tournament w/ it. I know the one guy barely lost to Nassif @ GP:Chicago with this NO Rock deck, and would've made top8 if he hadn't drawn his Progenitus in the last game of the match. So once people start to realize that NO is that good, it will be all over the place. I guarantee it.
its another 3 card combo (progenitus + natural order + green creature)
give it some time and see...
it doesnt win you the game right away like painterstone combo but its not easily disrupted liked like stiflenought combo.
so far it hasnt taken over the format
i mean back in the day, lackey-gang combo was feared until we found ways to beat it, same thing with countertop combo....
at least its not as bad as tinkerlossus (its blue and blue has a lot of support) or landscroll combos...
No, actually, most people are arguing that the Blue shell is better than the Rock shell. All of your arguments are seriously stupid and can be applied to any freaking deck. "NO player will often have more than one creature." Yes, and the dreadstill player will also often have more than one way to deal with removal, or will play a standstill in which case the disadvantage of getting "2-for-1ed" (which apparently is impossible with NO) is basically negated. Card-for-card arguments like this are meaningless.
Every fucking deck has the strong potential to top8 and win tournaments, I'm sure plenty of people would have made top 8 if they hadn't done some crazy crap, when you lose a game of magic you can't think of "what could have been" but rather "could have I done this differently to win?"'
And I like how the poster above mentions how stiflenought combo is easily disrupted, making NO better, and then goes on to say that tinkerlossus is very powerful because it is blue and blue has lots of support.
PLAYING STIFLENOUGHT IS NOT PLAYING DRAGON STOMPY. You are not playing the dreadnaught and praying there is no answer. It is a complementary strategy most of the time that serves as an oops-I-win factor just like Natural Order.
My quote (which, by means, is no proof NO sucks, I was just lucky by playing a "weak and unusual" deck, since I'm a terrible player, and winning against a good player doesn't mean a single thing, as I'm terrible and shall remain like that forever) was just to say each color has access to 1-2 answers to Progenitus. There are actually a few ways to deal with a resolved one: some are played, some aren't. I didn't say NO isn't capable of winning a major tournament. I said, before this post, that NO is good. But it's not broken. NO can turn disadvantage situations in advantage situations (say, I'm attacking with my Kird Ape and you're there with you lonely BoP, you land Progenitus and laugh @ me). I exactly said what FoulQ said. It's a surprise-win combo. Just like Stifle/Nought. I never said you are forced to play a card as soon as you draw it. Obviously, there are better moments to play a card. The only thing I said is that NO is better in Survival Decks than in a Rock shell, because it has mana acceleration and can land multiple creatures in the early turns, making harder for your opponent to kill on sight/Edict/Perish/Wrath/whatever all of your creatures. Plus, if you haven't got a single creature B4 casting NO, you can just fetch for that Dryad Arbor and land a 10/10. The only thing I was arguing was its mana cost. Costing 4 makes NO slow. Your opponent can draw countermagic and discard in the meanwhile, or just outrace you.
0.05.14 [Digital Devil] <Digital Devil> Ach! Hans, run! It's the Tarmogoyf!
0.05.17 [Hans (GER)] <Hans (GER)> ...
0.05.20 [<System>] <System> Player Lost
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