So, I'm pretty sure everyone here doesn't have any qualms about making a few bucks here and there; so:
I'm just wondering what cards from M11 people are expecting to rise/fall - with most of their prices being based on Standard players.
For myself; I'm expecting Dark Tutelage to have a spike fairly soon after release; and then settle down as people from Legacy realize that you can't get rid of it so easily, and then people from Standard will realize that they can't control their draws well enough to abuse it.
I'm expecting Mystifying Maze do to something along the same lines, although it may continue to climb if someone finds the right deck for it(Standard).
I'm guessing that Obstinate Baloth will fall in value after people realize that he's just a vanilla 4/4; and even if he does work well against Blightning, Blightning rotates out soon anyway.
Time Reversal seems to be the 'it' kid right now, and my guess is that it will fall - but it could worm its way into a combo deck.
I'm expecting Sword of Vengeance to drop fairly soon, and Brittle Effigy is the swingman - he could find a home in a deck that likes to recur him; or he could become a total crap card.
Thoughts from the rest of you?
Effigy can't recur itself because it exiles as part of the cost.
I expect all rares to drop, as they have been when more packs become opened and more events are held. It just seems like the general trend. Look at cards like Stoneforge Mystic and Basilisk Collar for example. Even at their height, probably $6-7.
I don't see any Mythic being higher than what they are currently either.
Delver enthusiast and avid practitioner of blind flipsmanship.
Follow me on Twitter: @AllSunsDawn
I'm expecting almost everything to drop below their presale value. This is going to be a hot set, and I don't expect Wizards to have shortage problems as they did with M10, because they know these "new" core sets will have ridiculous demand.
Granted, some cards will be "underrated" and rise in value, but because I think the overwhelming majority of cards will depreciate, I'm going to let prices settle before I grab my playsets, let alone speculate.
Pretty much what everyone else said.
I'm looking at a calender of my LGS tournaments and they are going to be drafting triple M11 for at least a solid month everyday. There's no way a rare will hold its value week after week, especially with M11 being a friendly coreset limited experience.
Looking at the mythics, most seem to be reprints with the titan cycle being, for the most part, fairly weak.
I've got my eye on Fauna Shaman. Could do something, could do nothing... not sure. I think I'm going to grab a playset if they're cheap.
Who says the Internet isn't full of <3?
Originally Posted by Aleksandr
Going for $12 on SCG. None of the rares that have been released in M10, Zendikar, Worldwake, or Rise of the Eldrazi are giong for even close to that much, besides the fetchlands, which are under $12. I think it's a strong card, but I'll put my money on it dropping a little.
Hmm, yeah, I don't think it's a $12 Legacy card. It may be useful in Standard or Ext (I have no idea), but a more fragile Survival is not going to be the centerpiece of a new deck. Survival is still much better for Legacy... duh, right? Which makes it kind of funny that people are arguing Bob is better than Dark Tutelage, another card I may pick up if cheap.
When sets are released there are often cheap singles to be found online here. Not often many, but sometimes. Especially when the cards are Legacy-focussed and not Standard focussed.
Who says the Internet isn't full of <3?
If people want to speculate, I would probably recommend getting powerful cards that interact with artifacts in some kind of way. (Because, y'know... Scars of Mirrodin -->> common sense) Personally, I think Phylactery Lich is kinda kewl... But I don't necessarily think it's gonna go through the roof or anything.
Bless your heart, we must consider Blue/White Tempo's strategy and win percentages in an entirely different deck thread. -4eak
The card that is going to rise the most is the one that puts +1/+1 counters on creature artifacts. Get them soon!
Edit: Don't fall into the trap of thinking that the red and white leylines aren't THAT good.
Last edited by DrJones; 07-08-2010 at 05:28 AM.
Please stop talking about whether Force of Will is broken or not. It obviously is, and rather than "the glue that holds vintage together" it would be better to call it "the rug under which you hide the filth until there's so much that you can no longer conceal it".
I hate to be the bringer of bad news, but what I expect is kind of meh.
Fauna Shaman isn't all it's cracked up to be. It's far from Survival of course, though decent for Vengevine stuff. Expect it to drop some. I expect it to hit $8 eventually then drop slowly from there even if it's used. It does need a quick answer, but I still can't picture this thing being good even in standard. 2/2's are too easy to kill in a format full of Jund, RDW, and control.
The Black and Green Titans are the money rares aside from Time Reversal obviously. Too bad they are horrid for Legacy. I doubt they will raise much up past where they already are excepting the black one as it's too low for what it is now. Reason being is no one is thinking past oct when this thing is insanely hard to kill (condemn?) without giving up the tokens. They are serious enablers for silly stuff. I already built a standard deck to proxy up and test and I cast a 5th turn Kosliek with mana to spare. Sillyness.
Jace will get worse. You can bet on it. Gideon will follow. No Pithing Needle either for when things get dumb. Oct will make them insane. Try and tell me I'm wrong.
Day of Judgment will go up some, not too much, but it will. Oct, watch it's price. UW is poised to take over and have a war with Red.
Time Reversal will go up as soon as people figure out the curve they will need for it. It will happen. It's hard to imagine that adding 1U to Timetwister is not going to spawn at the very least a quick creature/refill hand type deck. I played Standard during the days of Memory Jar, Elves were insane until people figured out the dark ritual megrim thing and pretty much got it banned right there. I seriously doubt there's a combo waiting to happen, but I guess you never know. The UU cost holds it back to much in my opinion. Ok, if it was colorless, sure I could see it, but as it stands nah, it's a creature spammer and that's a gimme. I bet it will get to the $40 mark fairly soon and if it actually goes into a good deck, expect it to hit the $50 range. I see that much now. I just dread it making it into Turbo fog or some crap with canonists.
Baneslayer drops to $35, I bet I'm right on the dot for that one.
Original planeswalkers go down even more making Chandra and Liliana better trade than trying to cash in on. None hold enough value aside from trade to care (ie under $10).
Obviously Nantuko Shade goes up somewhat. It's good enough for mono-B control and people love that stuff.
Captivating Vampire stays cheap as it's actually crap and in a pre-con to boot.
Leyline of Sanctity - White decks realize they really need this in standard, white legacy decks realize they really don't need this. Price levels off at $4-6 because that's what standard rares do that aren't busted in the format, but are cool tabletop cards.
Dark Tutelage - People get disappointed everywhere as they finally test this card and realize you need some serious library manipulation to make it work without serious pain. Oh, and Tendrils is no longer in standard to regain that lost life in 3 months. It will be fairly hot for the upcoming ones though once people try it, then peter off quick once they lose Tendrils as it's the only good lifegain that could have kept up with it. Corrupt is not going to cut it and Nighthawks are not reliable enough to stay alive long enough to help out. Unless people want to call it an autoloss to RDW, it lands itself as a 3 dollar rare eventually because it does have some mediocre uses as in being still the only black card draw around sadly. If someone figures out how to use all that white lifegain with it, it may go back up to $7. No further.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Sun Titan is worth picking up. It will never get expensive, but it's good. Pre-release is only thing holding it back. It's quite good actually and I think there literally will be a use.
Mana Leak - Watch the price of those older foils shoot up on Ebay. You know it will happen. Glad I have my playset.
Vampires in general get cheaper come Oct. Bye Nocturnus. People will start dumping before then.
Haunting Echoes goes up. Wait for the deck, it will come.
Red Leyline gets used. It's good. Not in Legacy, but in standard.
Obstinate Baloth goes up definitely. Jund sucks, no one except people who are already mean enough to screw little kids into bad trades likes it, this card singlehandedly screws up a lot of the best things jund has. Yeah, people will want it. If it was mythic, it would be insane. I expect 6 range. Stupid Mythic rarity killing all prices.
That guy who multikickers into a bunch of wolf tokens will go up.
Avenger of Zendikar - This guy should already be nuts. He's silly in that turbo land deck. M11 gives it new tools to play with, but this guy is the core. He should raise up quite a bit. Mythic makes him break the $20 automatically once people figure it out.
Lodestone Golem - Waits for Mirrodin stuff.
Temple Bell - Very balanced card, will sit at what it's at now probably forever.
M10 duals - go down $1 please. : (
Any questions? I virtually have a second job which is figuring out this stuff. Watch when Ben Bleiweiss has his guesses on prices, we won't be far off each other, we never are and we're not wrong too often either.
Overall, I get so annoyed with the entire Mythic thing as it drives the prices of all rares through the floor all the while jacking the hell out of the prices on a select few. If it's a normal rare it will never break $10. It's like a super uncommon now. Mythics can almost never go under $10 if they are worth playing at all and hit $3 at best if they aren't. So anything I said would go up that happens to be a regular rare won't break $10 at all. Mythics can do most anything, but mostly tend to stay around $12 unless they are exceptional.
Edit: Bleiweiss's Article on M11 just came out today. Seems we are 2 cards off from each other, though one is close. Fauna Shaman I just don't think will be some monster $12+ card. It's good, but lower rares tend not to get up there like that and a one shot survival on a stick isn't that amazing even in standard.
Time Reversal. Guess we'll just have to wait to see if I'm right on this one. Nice to know people who deal in cards this much agreed for the most part on all of it.
Last edited by dahcmai; 07-09-2010 at 11:46 AM.
Pre-selling for $8.92 on ChannelFireball if you guys want it right now.
I'm going to stand pat because I don't intend to use it anytime soon and I think it will still continue to drop.
Just for reference, here are some of the initial prices for what I deemed to be "chase" rares (initial price around $6 or more) or mythics (initial price above $10). I used initial StarCityGames prices because those were readily available from Ben Bleiswess's articles, and although SCG is slightly more expensive than other retailers, it was not noticeably so and they were still cheaper than a lot of the eBay preorders. The current prices are what they currently sell for in NM condition on SCG.
Baneslayer Angel - $10 -> $40 (M10) or $35 (M11)
Darksteel Colossus - $12.50 -> $3
Garruk Wildspeaker - $15 -> $6
Jace Beleren - $12.50 -> $5 (M10) or $4 (M11)
Ball Lightning - $6 -> $3
Birds of Paradise - $12.50 -> $4
Coat of Arms - $7 -> $1.50
Haunting Echoes - $6 -> $1
Honor of the Pure - $5 -> $2
Pithing Needle - $14 -> $2.50
Siege-Gang Commander - $6 -> $3
Silence - $8 -> $1.50
Traumatize - $6 -> $2
Twincast - $7 -> $2
Duals - $7 -> $4 to $6
That's not even taking into account the fact that there was an apparent shortage of M10 supply, so I expect the overwhelming majority of cards in M11 to depreciate similarly.
Basically, sell everything you can this week. In 2 weeks prices will PLUMMET. You can buy stuff back at that point.
Some stuff you may want to hang onto, but yeah; for the most part, sell stuff off.
For myself, if I rip any Fauna Shaman, I'll hang onto them - I have a feeling that they'll turn out to be WAY better than people think(in Standard). 1G for a 2/2 is fairly solid. Adding in Survival is just incredible - its like saying: Kill me before I destroy you. She makes your late drops into early drops if you need them then, and your bad early drops into late drops later. That's good enough as it is; the Vengevine shenanigans are just icing on the cake.
Also Fauna Shaman + Squee may be good enough for new extended. Something to defn. keep an eye out for.
I think Baneslayer Angel will come down to around $30. Most people that are serious about T2 already have a playset.
Steel Overseer and Brittle Effigy are both probably better than people think. Effigy will only be used in control decks though or out of the sb for pro-x colour cards.
I think Mystifying Maze is also better than people think. Even just as a 1-2 of in a control build is pretty powerful once you have JTMS online.
None of these cards are going to see spikes like we have in the past for previous rares like maelstrom pulse for example.
-Cheers-
Quite a few of the dealers on MagicCards.info are already selling preorders at less than $30, so I'll say you're right on this one. :-)
The lowest i think BSA would sell for while she is legal in T2 is $25. They also gave red a great way to deal with her. Overall i think this is a good thing for the game. Pricing people out of T2 is just silly. This set was made how they said they were going to make new sets with only "Mythic feeling" cards being Mythic. There are also a few nuggets in M10 for eternal players (Leylines, Preordain, Voltaic Key) so overall i have to give my hats off to Wizards.
I for one am glad i sold/traded away my 5 Baneslayer Angels about 2 months ago. I figured if they reprint it, its price goes down. If they dont reprint it the price goes down.
The real money as always in T2 sets can be made on picking up foils of eternal cards.
Some cards worth picking up in foil from T2 players for cheap:
3-4 Autumn's Veil (Belcher/Combo)
1 Back to Nature (Cunning Wish Decks/ Anti Enchantress)
2-3 Crystal Ball (Stax)
4 Duress (Black X)
3-4 Fling (Affinity)
4 Leyline (Punishment/Sanctity/Void)
4 Preordain (T1/Vintage Blue)
4 Pyretic Ritual
4 Scroll Thief
X Voltaic Key
The cards above are all playable in Legacy and/or Vintage but are pretty benign cards for T2.
-Cheers-
Totally agree, that's a failr y good list of foils (if you like them) to pick up as they are all really cheap right now. I picked up a set of Crystal Balls, Preordain, Autumn's Veil for all under $20 for playsets all together. Cheap, but you know it will be harder to get later.
And what about Phylactery Lich?
Phylactery Lich seems like one of those guys to not buy yet, he'll drop to .50c each, and you can pick up a playset for ~2$. He might be good when Scars comes out.
Could not agree more. I am pretty confident that he will not be good, even with scars.
-Cheers-
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Reply With Quote