It will go down somewhat mainly due to the decks that wouldn't mind Time Spiral in them have weaknesses that Time Spiral doesn't shore up. It lends a new tool in decks like Spring Tide and might be used, but it's nothing that will change the deck into a powerhouse. It retains the same problems it had originally. The original High tide decks did quite well against control and obviously aggro, but Counterbalance is around now to put a quick end to that kind of old school shenanigans. It will have to adapt to play around that card alone and might have already evolved as far as it can go against that kind of hate.
I do wonder at the possibility of putting it into a deck sporting Dream Halls and Time Reversal in a Turbo Zvi style that could run off Show and Tell in addition to just hard casting things. Playing Timetwister style effects for free is never bad and keeps a deck like that running much better than playing crap like Ancestral Knowledge or the other cards that were so subpar back then. Toss a Silence or Chant at a person and make them watch the show.
People will speculate and drive the price up, but I expect to see it go right back down. Combo isn't something people pick up and play well anyway. It's a tough deck to get used to.
I figure it will retain a price of about $20 since it is an Urza's Saga Rare and that's getting to be a tricky set to get rares from anyway.
I bet people will be more surprised at how well Survival retains it's value. I bet it stays right around the price of what it was before Vengevine's printing. It's a casual favorite though most people don't know it.
Land Tax would shoot up to pretty insane prices for a Legends copy if it ever came back despite the fact it's an Uncommon. it's still a legends card. There may be other versions out there of it in white border, but no one likes white borders for some reason. I guess there's a couple of FBB ones too that will increase decently. Remember Reset being $35 when Solidarity was big? That was a common. Land Tax being a totally superior card would easily hit $75 very quickly for a clean English Legends copy.
Reset is Uncommon, fyi.Originally Posted by dahcmai
What is up, exactly? I noticed some interest in merfolk staples, but everything storm related seems to be where it was... Unless I'm misinformed?
First off, how the mighty have fallen, oh my
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...K%3AMEWAX%3AIT
a playset of Japanese Survivals for $80, that's gotta hurt. So much for retaining value. I mean I don't expect Survival to fall anymore as it is great in casual and EDH and it's really old but damn $80 for a playset of Asians is a kick in the balls.
As far as everything else, Lackeys are back up to almost $10 a piece which they haven't seen on Ebay in a while, PileDrivers are up about 20%, non-Green/Blue duals Badlands/Scrublands/Plats have seen a jump especially Badlands which started almost exactly the time period everyone seemed to agree that banning Survivals was a foregone conclusion (You could find a playset for a little over 80 a month or so ago now try 120+). Everyone missed the goblins boat if they didn't get on it. Over the past 3 months I've picked up Lackeys for under $5 left and right, those days are over. ANT and GBW stuff was already up since a lot of people switched to those decks and everybody already has Merfolk stuff, I mean seriously most of those people never even stopped playing it.
Most telling is that old school Chain Lightnings are back up to $10+ a piece despite Fire and Lightning still being on shelves, go figure I guess you can't top a classic. There was a while you could get them for $6 easy right after the box set came out. If you order Ebay by recently ended auctions you see 4x Chain Lightnings going for $25-$30ish dollars a playset then suddenly as of midnight Sunday- boom back to $10 a piece.
Seas have been up for a while since people flocked to ANT as have Burning Wishes and OMG LEDs like a boss (up from a little over 20 to 30 or more a piece). Seas dropped in price around the time Survival started breaking out and I scooped up playsets all over the place, now they are back to around 75-80 a piece and I've still got 5 extras in my trade binder.
Top went up around the time everyone decided Survival was going to get banned. A lot of stuff went up around 3-4 weeks ago when people started to put that together that's why you might not notice it as much now. Maze of Ith has gone up about 50% in value in the past month.
Time Spiral has already started the downward Spiral in my book. Day 1 a playset went for over $160 most recent playset went for $110. Don't be surprised if they are $20 a piece by next calender year.
big links in sigs are obnoxious -PR
Don't disrespect my dojo dude...
Sweep the leg!
Pretty comprehensive answer, I like that!
I unloaded my Survivals/Vengevines more than a month ago and ended up getting playsets of LEDs, Infernal Tutors, Burning Wishes and a playset of arabian Cities for them in the end. Not a bad deal, considering.
I decided a while back that never more I'd sell staples. I had to buy back some of the stuff I had sold because I needed it in the end... LEDs are a good example of this, and so are the Mutavaults, which I sold post rotation for peanuts, and now I'd like to play Merfolk again...
So where do you see Japanese Lackeys going
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If Goblins do well in the next month up, otherwise about where they are now for a while. I think the key right now is don't buy anything you don't immediately need for a deck. So many people are scrambling right now to put together a deck it's inflating prices across the board. Since 15% of the meta in the largest tournament series in America played Survival probably 25%+ of the overall meta is trying to build a new deck right now. I haven't seen shit this chaotic in the MTG market since earlier this year when hundreds of people decided to but into Legacy to play in the SCG series.
big links in sigs are obnoxious -PR
Don't disrespect my dojo dude...
Sweep the leg!
I expect to see Zoo, Merfolk, and Counterbalance make their comeback pretty much what it was before we had Survival pop up. At least that means Lands has a chance again. It had a serious problem with those Vengevines.
It had a serious problem with Survival. And Ooze, and Quirion Ranger. Vengevine wasn't really the issue though.
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The older Survival lists i had no problem with when playing Lands. I had a serious problem trying to get up enough defense in time before I got hit by those things to far to come back from. They all had the weakness of dying to multiple Wastes and Ghost Quarters. The Vengevines were my problem trying to beat that deck. They came out just too fast for me to have enough Mazes for them. The haste was just horrid trying to deal with. That and the GU version wasn't as susceptible to wastes so I couldn't Tabernacle them out quickly enough. I switched decks due to it.
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is set to go back up then no doubt. The price of Tabernacles had really cooled off. I saw a played English one go on eBay a couple weeks ago for ~$170. That was a bargain if tribal is back in the mix.
Manabonds and Explorations have also been very under priced recently. So i expect those to go back up as well.
-Cheers-
I haven't been tracking the price of Grim monolith since its unbanning, but I see you can get one for 18 USD. Would you say it's "cooled off?" It doesn't really go in any competitive deck (how is MUD doing anyway?), but still retains in my opinion, a high price tag. Will Time Spiral do the same thing if it doesn't see play in a competitive deck?
Grim monolith has most definitely cooled off. I think $18 is way high. The lowest Grim monolith I saw on eBay sold for $4.75. So I think around about $8-10 is more likely the true value.
Time spiral will do the same thing as every other magic cards in legacy. We saw the same thing with Eureka and Grindstone. Magic cards ALWAYS spike high and come down slowly over time though they may have a future spike if the card does prove to be tournament viable. Grindstones were going for about $1-3 before painters servant. When the combo was realized they shot up to $25+. Now Starcitygames is selling them for $20 and you can eBay one for half that. Stores take a very long time to readjust their prices (or more likely they just dont).
As a general rule of thumb the "true" value of cards to me is the midway point between a stores buy price and their sell price. This conveniently tends to matchup pretty well with eBay prices excluding outliers.
-Cheers-
Time Spiral is already finishing at less than $20 on eBay and falling. That was WAY fast.
Anyone think that the trend on cards getting unrestricted and spiking then cooling down may be ending as consumers are getting used to the trend?
I would hope that a couple of unbannings from now people would be able to contain themselves.
Lol'ed at what Mr. C said, TS already below $20, at least they are learning a lesson.
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Honestly, no. This happened with Grim Monolith, Illusionary Mask (which NO ONE thought would be good), and now Time Spiral. This trend will continue. In fact, I may go as far as to say that as B/R updates approach, people will be speculating on banned cards in hopes of their unbanning. Think about it, the risk in buying 20 Mind Twists is low considering the upside if they are unbanned. Even more so for something like Earthcraft.
The one good thing out of all this is that Wizards is showing that they ARE truly spending time and energy on this format. If they planned to stop supporting legacy in the near future, they wouldn't bother unbanning cards. Glad legacy can still be healthy.
Now is the time to sell to stores over eBay. Without looking too hard I found a store buying Time Spirals for $18.18 each. Plus you have no eBay fees there either.
I think that people are going to continue to speculate early because there is bascially no reason not to. If you buy a card like time spiral for five dollars then even if the price over inflates and crashes it will still be worth double what you paid for it.
-Cheers-
This is why you always buy restricted cards before they come off the banned list. I got my playset of entombs for $1. I got my Time Spirals for $5. I have a playset of Library of Alexandrias just waiting. Unfortunately, those cost more than a $1, but hey, least I won't pay an arm and leg if those ever come off. I have a play set of Hermit Druids, Earthcrafts, Land Taxes, and a few others just because a few bucks out of my pocket didn't hurt to not have to worry about it later.
I'm like, six months behind schedule. Need a well paying job first before I start (heavy) speculatory buying. But this is the general idea. One playset of Monoliths got me an extra $25 profit, just couldn't get more at the time, etc.
Delver enthusiast and avid practitioner of blind flipsmanship.
Follow me on Twitter: @AllSunsDawn
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