Id take the force, otherwise hes going to force ur 1st goyf, cliques away the goyf or troll and can dig for an answer to ur last thread.
If the force is gone u terminate his goyf, he cliques one of ur threads and u have 2 left to play
Who picked preordain??
Really?
The only answer RUG Cbalance can dig up for a Goyf in Play is Jace or Goyf wall with Lavamancer backup. Hitting 1 of 2 Cliques is highly unlikely. You want them to Force the first Goyf and waste 2 cards(one being Preordain, which could have been used to dig for threats/answers).
I'd take the Brainstorm. Make him crack his fetch on his turn if he wants to dig for mana with Preordain.
-If he Forces Goyf next turn, then he can't Force Terminate and he'll no longer have Preordain to dig with, putting him in top deck mode.
-If he casts Goyf, you can leave mana open and Terminate Goyf in response to Preordain or at EoT to either kill the Goyf or make him use FoW.
I think my initial reaction was to take the force, because I don't like them, but I'm convinced by a couple people who preceded me in the thread.
1) don't take a brainstorm or preordain, because they already have relevant cards in hand. If they brainstorm, what's the worst they can get? Jace? They can't cast it in time. Another goyf? Taking the one that is already there is better than preventing them from drawing another one.
2) It would blow if they had both grim and goyf, and your terminate on goyf got countered (by force or spell snare or counterspell). If you take their goyf, they're a little more desperate to stop yours. They very likely will counter your first goyf, and then you get a free goyf and troll.
There is no line of play in which he Forces your first Tarmogoyf.
You're correct. I said Brainstorm, but I didn't notice it was mentioned that he was playing off of a basic mountain.
The correct play is taking the Goyf (which you allude to, but I don't think you mention it explicitly). Here's the breakdown:
Taking Force: Horrible play. You are way ahead in this game on cards and you don't have any spell you particularly care about. The only time it might be relevant is if your opponent topdecks like a champ to stay afloat against your extremely aggressive hand *AND* you topdeck a Jace *AND* your opponent doesn't Force of Will your second Goyf (or Ascetic). If you pass on the Force, it's much more likely that he'll have to Force your second Goyf or die and then you'll win easily behind an extra land, Goyf, Ascetic, and Terminate vs. Grim Lavamancer.
Taking Brainstorm OR Preordain: Not a good play. Your opponent isn't in an average situation where Brainstorm is likely to function as +1 or +2 cards.
Your opponent needs everything right now. He needs more lands of every color (even red). He needs more lands, period, to play Jace and salvage the board. He needs tempo because your hand is extremely aggressive. He needs creatures. He needs answers to creatures. He really can't afford to spend blue mana, and there isn't a card in his deck that he really wants to see. He just needs cards in general.
Taking Goyf: The best play. A great way to summarize why is to look at the board from his perspective. If he topdecks, he's hoping to draw Goyf. If he brainstorms, he wants to see Goyf among the cards he draws (and he desperately needs a Fetchland in there). If he preordains, he keeps Goyf.
Goyf is his strongest draw, and almost certainly his turn 2 play if you don't take Goyf and he draws a blank. So just take it now and be sure to play the fetchland and not the Taiga when you run your Goyf out so that he doesn't kill your Tarmogoyf with Grim Lavamancer (embarrassing).
But in general: Your opponent pissed away the game by fetching basic Mountain. That was absolutely not the land that he wanted to fetch.
Why does he want a protected source of red when his hand has Goyf and two cantrips? What's he hoping will happen? Your hand is just Wastelands and Dryad Arbors? Your opponent is stupid as shit and he played himself into a corner with his mistake. Now he needs every single card in his deck.
If he had the intellect to get a Volcanic Island instead, you probably should take the Brainstorm and play for a longer game rather than grab the Goyf and bumrush his throat while your opponent flounders wondering how he's on the play but so far behind on mana.
I would pick Force because his tarmogoyf is a dead card without the lock (I assume you have a fair share of removal in your deck), and you will force him to cast it early to stop your tarmogoyfs, allowing you to kill it with terminate (which otherwise is a blank card). Even though FoW doesn't look as powerful in this sample because of the card disadvantage, taking it out will slow his deck a whole turn because he will need to leave mana open to protect his game, and will also prevent him from "timewalking" you if he starts drawing stuff out of brainstorm/preordain. If you aren't the "control" deck in the match (read Mike Flores), you can't allow the opponent to steal the initiative from you.
Look at it this way, if he has to spend brainstorm/preordain to pick another counterspell, he still loses 2 cards to answer one of yours, and this way he actually has to spend mana in the process, and if he spends the spells in finding stuff, he can no longer protect them. The worst action is to take out one of the redundant library manipulation effects because you leave your opponent with both protection and threats in his hand.
Note: I assume your opponent is male.
Please stop talking about whether Force of Will is broken or not. It obviously is, and rather than "the glue that holds vintage together" it would be better to call it "the rug under which you hide the filth until there's so much that you can no longer conceal it".
My question is why didn't your opponent FOW pitching preordain to protect his hand? He untaps plays Goyf and puts notice on you to either drop a Goyf of your own or a kill spell.
Counterbalance decks play a strategy known as Trench Warfare. Force of Will is useless to him right now because there's nothing to protect, and so it is Tarmogoyf because the trench hasn't been built yet. Why lose two cards and one life casting FoW to avoid losing one card, if you believe that the one he is going to pick is FoW?
Please stop talking about whether Force of Will is broken or not. It obviously is, and rather than "the glue that holds vintage together" it would be better to call it "the rug under which you hide the filth until there's so much that you can no longer conceal it".
Why would you take force when you can take goyf and give him very few outs? They do attrition you, sure, but through counterspells. Resolved threats are incredibly good against them
Matt Bevenour in real life
I would take either Force of Will or Tarmogoyf, and here's why. Brainstorm/Ponder/Preordain can get him back into the game, but the other cards in his hand are still pretty good already, and he doesn't have to waste mana/tempo/turns to find them (like he would with cantrips).
If you take Tarmogoyf he's going to Force your first Tarmogoyf and your other cards will resolve.
If you take Force of Will pretty much your whole hand resolves (inluding Terminate on his Tarmogoyf) and runs him over and he can't do much to stop you, so that's probably what I would take.
Find me on Twitter at @JMJACO and @EternalCentral. If you have an interest in Vintage Eldrazi, check out my book Eldrazi Meditations.
Moreover, ponder and Brainstorm let him dig deep for shit like spell snare etc. countering terminate or goyf and what then?
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