[Deck] ANT (Ad Nauseam Tendrils)

[GoboLord]

@ Ari: I can't imagine a situation where you DON'T need Extirpate against Reanimator (as a reminder: Extirpate allows you to look at their hand, removes ALL copies of the chosen card from their library and can't be countered!). This is not only about removing their creature in response on the reanimation-spell. If you manage to catch any counterspell this is absolutely worth the trade suggested above.

Imagine the situation you described:
You play Cremate @ a creature in their graveyard (in response to Exhume or whatever). They play FoW. So they get their Iona or Jin GItaxias back.
OR
You play the Extirpate @ a creature in their graveyard (in response to Exhume or whatever). They can't play FoW. So you have to fight through a FoW.

The point is: You can win through a FoW (or even through 2-3 counterspells) but is nearly impossible to win through Jin-Gitaxian or Iona.

[Fossil4182]

Wouldn't Extirpate have added value against decks like LED Dredge and the mirror?

[AriLax]

The point is: You can win through a FoW (or even through 2-3 counterspells) but is nearly impossible to win through Jin-Gitaxian or Iona.

The issue isn't Jin/Iona. It's the combination of Force and the quick clock. While some additional interaction is nice, the real issue arises when you Duress them early, see both halves, and have no course of action. You can now take Force, Cremate their guy, and go, all without Cremate clunking up your draws when the game turns into them being loaded on counters and you battling through. I've watched/done this before, and you don't win the games where you just Extirpate them. You win when you Duress early, strip a key piece away, and then go off. The idea is that when you can win, Cremate is the better interaction spell as it makes the immediate turn around to lethal easier.

[John Cox]

What about the games where they have force and you don't have duress? Do you let your cremate get forced and then move to the next match?
I've played the match a lot and I know the most important play is probably casting a turn one duress effect to deal with force or a reanimate spell. But Extirpate lets you interact without doing that.

[AriLax]

What about the games where they have force and you don't have duress? Do you let your cremate get forced and then move to the next match?
I've played the match a lot and I know the most important play is probably casting a turn one duress effect to deal with force or a reanimate spell. But Extirpate lets you interact without doing that.

Then if you Extirpate, you are still Duressless staring down a Force, and they can rebuild and often do faster than you can.

[esqulax]

Quick question guys. I have made a storm deck to lend to one of my friends who doesn't have a collection of his own. He is doing allright with it but he complains that his most common way to lose is to not find any of his tutors (it is a common U/B build). Is there any alternative to Grim Tutor that could add some more consistancy other than splashing another color?

[John Cox]

Then if you Extirpate, you are still Duressless staring down a Force, and they can rebuild and often do faster than you can.

Yeah, it's really a no win scenario without a duress against Reanimator. At least post board this deck has 8 duress effects.

Quick question guys. I have made a storm deck to lend to one of my friends who doesn't have a collection of his own. He is doing allright with it but he complains that his most common way to lose is to not find any of his tutors (it is a common U/B build). Is there any alternative to Grim Tutor that could add some more consistancy other than splashing another color?

You could up the Ad Nauseam count to two. There aren't a lot of great tutors out there.

[xfxf]

I'm also testing the deck recently and I've also seen that not having a tutor in hand even after multiple Ponders, Brainstorms etc. may occur quite often and make you miss out on a critical opportunity to go off before it's too late.

I don't find the Ad Nauseam kill very reliable. If I have enough mana I either go for the Tutor chains or IGG and use Ad Nauseam when I'm desperate. Well, when I'm desperate I either don't have enough mana, in which case results in a fizzle with a high percentage or I'm going down on life quickly and have to make a leap of faith to end the game now.

Back to the tutors, I thought about splasing red just for Burning Wish and go with a TNT build to leave the no-tutors issue behind but it's not as simple as -4 Gitaxian Probe +4 Burning Wish. I'm also thinking about Cunning Wish as a 2of or 3of but then I can only tutor for Ad Nauseam, which is not my favourite kill condition in the deck...

[Malakai]

bilb_o: Nothing you said is new information. I realize the thread is about seven thousand pages long, but the information is there.

I have heard of people trying Cunning Wish, but I have never heard of anyone having success with Cunning Wish. Take that for what it is.

Extirpate is garbage. It's one of those pet cards that people have because they are disproportionately afraid of their spells getting countered. The overlap between Extirpate proponents and the group of people who want to ban Force of Will is quite large. This discussion reminds me of Extended back when Dredge was the deck to beat, and people thought that "Extirpate on Bridge from Below" was a good plan. In actuality, it slowed you down just as much as it slowed down Dredge, and also took away your only vector of interaction you had with them. The loss of a card in Cremate vs. Extirpate is a similar situation.

[dillonkbase]

I If I have enough mana I either go for the Tutor chains or IGG and use Ad Nauseam when I'm

Dead to IGG

Ad Nauseam in general is a risky card and in general if you can use IGG or just chain tutors those are safer and cleaner ways to win. If you ad nauseam you are subject to the draw and rules of randomness, so this all makes sense.

On the wishes, I just don't think cunning wish is the card you want or need, burning wish is much more playable, and if you don't want to do the grim tutors TNT is a good option.

*****************************

So I have been having problems piloting the deck with decisions regarding going off or attempting to find a duress. Often times I end up with hands that could win turn one on the draw, if I don't get hit with a FOW or sometimes just a daze. I think people have talked about this, but generally the correct play here is to wait to see if you can find a duress, and to counteract the fact that you are waiting is the knowledge that cabal ritual gets way better around turn 3? I guess I end up often either losing to the FOW or waiting to find a duress that never appears.

So you lose the die roll turn and turn one your opponent plays Island go, you can win if they don't FOW how do you tackle the decision tree?

[Chikenbok]

If you lose the roll to an unknown opponent who plays Island go - can you at least play around daze/pierce? If not, hold out for protection. What's the meta like - how big are your balls. Winning the roll and simply winning the game does happen, but if I have a turn 1 kill in my hand, at least in my meta, I'm not going to try and slam through a hand that probably has a force of will in it.

Nowadays with the diversification of fetches walking into a daze while staring down a marsh flats or verdant catacombs just happens sometimes... and it sucks so.. try not to do it.

But then again, sometimes ya can just win.

Be a Jedi, that's my real advice.

Game 2, don't even try it without protection.

[John Cox]

If its the draw and they haven't cantriped then you have a 40% chance of seeing Force of will, and a 40% chance of daze probably too. I would be hesitant to rush something out if I had cantrips that could make things easier and find a duress.

[Fossil4182]

Dead to IGG

Ad Nauseam in general is a risky card and in general if you can use IGG or just chain tutors those are safer and cleaner ways to win. If you ad nauseam you are subject to the draw and rules of randomness, so this all makes sense.

On the wishes, I just don't think cunning wish is the card you want or need, burning wish is much more playable, and if you don't want to do the grim tutors TNT is a good option.

*****************************

So I have been having problems piloting the deck with decisions regarding going off or attempting to find a duress. Often times I end up with hands that could win turn one on the draw, if I don't get hit with a FOW or sometimes just a daze. I think people have talked about this, but generally the correct play here is to wait to see if you can find a duress, and to counteract the fact that you are waiting is the knowledge that cabal ritual gets way better around turn 3? I guess I end up often either losing to the FOW or waiting to find a duress that never appears.

So you lose the die roll turn and turn one your opponent plays Island go, you can win if they don't FOW how do you tackle the decision tree?

As an aside, I really like this prompts. However, next time, can you include what is in your hand please
? I ask because even if your hand looses to Force of Will, whether your not you have the ability to play through Spell Pierce or Spell Snare is also relevant.

If you're opponent opens with Island and passes, there are only a few of the top tier decks that play Islands in a significant number. There are a couple of lines of thought that you need to consider. These are my initial thoughts on the subject:

A. My initial conclusion is that your opponent is playing Merfolk; this is because Merfolk plays the highest number of basic Islands. Since the banning of Mental Misstep, three of the four lists that have placed at the SCG events have had between 2 - 3 Spell Pierce maindeck along with a full complement of Daze. Therefore, there is a 74% chance they will have one of the ten counterspells in their hand and there is a 65% chance that the counterspell is either a Spell Pierce or Force of Will. Under those circumstances, I think its always better to play a land, cast a cantrip, and pass. If they counter your cantrip, it will likely be via a Daze or Spell Pierce in which case your gaining value. Merfolk's Achilles Heel in the Storm match up is that their clock directly trades off with their ability to disrupt us. Since most modern Merfolk lists have abandoned draw engines, if you can run them out of counters by baiting them into countering cantrips, then you're in a good position. This also means that digging to find a Duress and resolving it will yield you greater results against Merfolk than it would against other decks since Merfolks lack of redundancy means you'll win in the long run. If the do not counter your cantrip, you've advanced your board position, likely secured a land drop for your next turn (which pays for Daze), and have greatly increased your odds of drawing a Duress effect to strip their hand of Force of Will or Spell Pierce.

B. UW Stoneblade is the next most probable deck your opponent is playing; they play between 5 to 6 Islands.

UW Stoneblade was popular prior to the banning of Mental Misstep. While it has only placed once since the banning of Mental Misstep, the fact that it won the most recent SCG event will likely only increase its popularity. The only list that has placed was running the following as disruption:

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
4 Spellstutter Sprite
2 Vendilion Clique

It should be noted according to Chris VanMeteter, who was the pilot of the UW Stoneblade deck, he's current maindeck disruption package would be

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
3 Vendilion Clique
1 Spellstutter Sprite

If your hand plans on winning via Infernal Tutor, then there is a 65% chance they have either Spell Snare or Force of Will in their opening hand. In that case, I would cast a cantrip turn one in hopes of finding a Duress effect. If you plan on using Grim Tutor, you're golden 60% of the time since you only have to worry about Force of Will. In the particular instance in which you are going to win via Grim Tutor, I'm inclined to go roll the dice and attempt to win turn one. Unlike Merfolk, which plays a lot of taxing counters, UW Stoneblade plays almost exclusively hard counters. UW Stoneblade has a higher density of threats which you cannot play around or through. Additionally, these decks have Brainstorm and Jace the Mind Sculptor to refill their hand. The addition of Snapcaster Mage also makes turns 3 - 5 much more difficult since they can recur Spell Snare or Counterspell. Therefore, winning faster is always better.

C. By comparison, Reanimator plays two basic Islands, NO Bant and RUG play one basic Island and most BUG lists do not have a basic Island. It is possible, but very unlikely that you're playing against these decks if they open with Island go. Even against a deck like Reanimator, they will only have a basic Island in hand 33% of the time make it highly unlikely that you're sitting across of Reanimator.

[dillonkbase]

As an aside, I really like this prompts. However, next time, can you include what is in your hand please
? I ask because even if your hand looses to Force of Will, whether your not you have the ability to play through Spell Pierce or Spell Snare is also relevant.

If you're opponent opens with Island and passes, there are only a few of the top tier decks that play Islands in a significant number. There are a couple of lines of thought that you need to consider. These are my initial thoughts on the subject:

A. My initial conclusion is that your opponent is playing Merfolk; this is because Merfolk plays the highest number of basic Islands. Since the banning of Mental Misstep, three of the four lists that have placed at the SCG events have had between 2 - 3 Spell Pierce maindeck along with a full complement of Daze. Therefore, there is a 74% chance they will have one of the ten counterspells in their hand and there is a 65% chance that the counterspell is either a Spell Pierce or Force of Will. Under those circumstances, I think its always better to play a land, cast a cantrip, and pass. If they counter your cantrip, it will likely be via a Daze or Spell Pierce in which case your gaining value. Merfolk's Achilles Heel in the Storm match up is that their clock directly trades off with their ability to disrupt us. Since most modern Merfolk lists have abandoned draw engines, if you can run them out of counters by baiting them into countering cantrips, then you're in a good position. This also means that digging to find a Duress and resolving it will yield you greater results against Merfolk than it would against other decks since Merfolks lack of redundancy means you'll win in the long run. If the do not counter your cantrip, you've advanced your board position, likely secured a land drop for your next turn (which pays for Daze), and have greatly increased your odds of drawing a Duress effect to strip their hand of Force of Will or Spell Pierce.

B. UW Stoneblade is the next most probable deck your opponent is playing; they play between 5 to 6 Islands.

UW Stoneblade was popular prior to the banning of Mental Misstep. While it has only placed once since the banning of Mental Misstep, the fact that it won the most recent SCG event will likely only increase its popularity. The only list that has placed was running the following as disruption:

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
4 Spellstutter Sprite
2 Vendilion Clique

It should be noted according to Chris VanMeteter, who was the pilot of the UW Stoneblade deck, he's current maindeck disruption package would be

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
3 Vendilion Clique
1 Spellstutter Sprite

If your hand plans on winning via Infernal Tutor, then there is a 65% chance they have either Spell Snare or Force of Will in their opening hand. In that case, I would cast a cantrip turn one in hopes of finding a Duress effect. If you plan on using Grim Tutor, you're golden 60% of the time since you only have to worry about Force of Will. In the particular instance in which you are going to win via Grim Tutor, I'm inclined to go roll the dice and attempt to win turn one. Unlike Merfolk, which plays a lot of taxing counters, UW Stoneblade plays almost exclusively hard counters. UW Stoneblade has a higher density of threats which you cannot play around or through. Additionally, these decks have Brainstorm and Jace the Mind Sculptor to refill their hand. The addition of Snapcaster Mage also makes turns 3 - 5 much more difficult since they can recur Spell Snare or Counterspell. Therefore, winning faster is always better.

C. By comparison, Reanimator plays two basic Islands, NO Bant and RUG play one basic Island and most BUG lists do not have a basic Island. It is possible, but very unlikely that you're playing against these decks if they open with Island go. Even against a deck like Reanimator, they will only have a basic Island in hand 33% of the time make it highly unlikely that you're sitting across of Reanimator.

Some of the best analyse I have seen, my prompt or another.

[JJ_JKidd]

As an aside, I really like this prompts. However, next time, can you include what is in your hand please
? I ask because even if your hand looses to Force of Will, whether your not you have the ability to play through Spell Pierce or Spell Snare is also relevant.

If you're opponent opens with Island and passes, there are only a few of the top tier decks that play Islands in a significant number. There are a couple of lines of thought that you need to consider. These are my initial thoughts on the subject:

A. My initial conclusion is that your opponent is playing Merfolk; this is because Merfolk plays the highest number of basic Islands. Since the banning of Mental Misstep, three of the four lists that have placed at the SCG events have had between 2 - 3 Spell Pierce maindeck along with a full complement of Daze. Therefore, there is a 74% chance they will have one of the ten counterspells in their hand and there is a 65% chance that the counterspell is either a Spell Pierce or Force of Will. Under those circumstances, I think its always better to play a land, cast a cantrip, and pass. If they counter your cantrip, it will likely be via a Daze or Spell Pierce in which case your gaining value. Merfolk's Achilles Heel in the Storm match up is that their clock directly trades off with their ability to disrupt us. Since most modern Merfolk lists have abandoned draw engines, if you can run them out of counters by baiting them into countering cantrips, then you're in a good position. This also means that digging to find a Duress and resolving it will yield you greater results against Merfolk than it would against other decks since Merfolks lack of redundancy means you'll win in the long run. If the do not counter your cantrip, you've advanced your board position, likely secured a land drop for your next turn (which pays for Daze), and have greatly increased your odds of drawing a Duress effect to strip their hand of Force of Will or Spell Pierce.

B. UW Stoneblade is the next most probable deck your opponent is playing; they play between 5 to 6 Islands.

UW Stoneblade was popular prior to the banning of Mental Misstep. While it has only placed once since the banning of Mental Misstep, the fact that it won the most recent SCG event will likely only increase its popularity. The only list that has placed was running the following as disruption:

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
4 Spellstutter Sprite
2 Vendilion Clique

It should be noted according to Chris VanMeteter, who was the pilot of the UW Stoneblade deck, he's current maindeck disruption package would be

2 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Spell Snare
3 Vendilion Clique
1 Spellstutter Sprite

If your hand plans on winning via Infernal Tutor, then there is a 65% chance they have either Spell Snare or Force of Will in their opening hand. In that case, I would cast a cantrip turn one in hopes of finding a Duress effect. If you plan on using Grim Tutor, you're golden 60% of the time since you only have to worry about Force of Will. In the particular instance in which you are going to win via Grim Tutor, I'm inclined to go roll the dice and attempt to win turn one. Unlike Merfolk, which plays a lot of taxing counters, UW Stoneblade plays almost exclusively hard counters. UW Stoneblade has a higher density of threats which you cannot play around or through. Additionally, these decks have Brainstorm and Jace the Mind Sculptor to refill their hand. The addition of Snapcaster Mage also makes turns 3 - 5 much more difficult since they can recur Spell Snare or Counterspell. Therefore, winning faster is always better.

C. By comparison, Reanimator plays two basic Islands, NO Bant and RUG play one basic Island and most BUG lists do not have a basic Island. It is possible, but very unlikely that you're playing against these decks if they open with Island go. Even against a deck like Reanimator, they will only have a basic Island in hand 33% of the time make it highly unlikely that you're sitting across of Reanimator.

Those that run Clique are the most terrible. They probably let you resolve a bunch of Rituals, then Clique for your Tutor or whatever. Crazy

[dillonkbase]

Scenario of the day: You are on the play round 2 of a tournament, after losing round one to reanimator. You do not know your opponent or his deck, you draw Island, lotus petal, duress, brainstorm, infernal tutor, lion's eye diamond,& dark ritual. Do you keep? what are your turn one and two(if you go that route) plays? How do you approach the decision tree?

[death]

Island, lotus petal, duress, brainstorm, infernal tutor, lion's eye diamond,& dark ritual. Do you keep?

t1: Island, go. BS in resp (hide) or EOT to find black source.
t2: Black source, Duress. Petal, Ritual, LED > IT. Ad Naus. My list plays 3 Moxen so that's how I do it.

[AriLax]

Scenario of the day: You are on the play round 2 of a tournament, after losing round one to reanimator. You do not know your opponent or his deck, you draw Island, lotus petal, duress, brainstorm, infernal tutor, lion's eye diamond,& dark ritual. Do you keep? what are your turn one and two(if you go that route) plays? How do you approach the decision tree?

I fail to see why you would not keep this hand.

[Fossil4182]

Scenario of the day: You are on the play round 2 of a tournament, after losing round one to reanimator. You do not know your opponent or his deck, you draw Island, lotus petal, duress, brainstorm, infernal tutor, lion's eye diamond,& dark ritual. Do you keep? what are your turn one and two(if you go that route) plays? How do you approach the decision tree?

I'm assuming you decide to keep and you're playing the following list.

Spells (43)
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Infernal Tutor
2 Grim Tutor
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Ill-Gotten Gains
1 Tendrils of Agony
4 Duress
2 Thoughtseize
Lands (17)
4 Polluted Delta
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Verdant Catacombs
3 Island
2 Swamp
2 Underground Sea

First, I think its necessary to eliminate all of the suboptimal plays. I'm not going to mention why its a terrible idea to cast Lotus Petal and Duress turn one; people should understand why that's terrible.

However, the question is whether or not we want to play the Island and cast Brainstorm turn one. A few things to consider. First, if you do not find additional acceleration, you lose the ability to potentially win on turn one. Second, you are minimizing the value of Brainstorm by not being able to shuffle the cards away. As a caveat to the previous point, your potentially locking yourself into terrible topdecks for the next two turns. Next, since you can no longer kill turn one, your hand is massively vulnerable to a turn one Thoughtseize from your opponent. Additionally Brainstorm, unlike Ponder and Preordain, is not usually cast until you "need" it. There probably isn't a need to play it here since you do not need to win turn one. There are only a few decks that can race you turn one: TES and Belcher. Those decks make up such a relatively small percent of the field, that there is not a need to try and race.

Looking at the other side, there are two cards that make your turn one kill easier if you draw them with Brainstorm: Dark Ritual or Lion's Eye Diamond. Assume you draw Dark Ritual. This is what the line of play would look like:

-Play Island
-Cast Brainstorm drawing Dark Ritual and plus two blank cards. Put the two blank cards on top your deck.
-Cast Lotus Petal (Storm count 2)
-Cast Dark Ritual, sacrificing Lotus Petal to pay for it (Storm count 3, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Duress (Storm count 4, Mana: BB). Let's assume you see Force of Will and make them discard it.
-Cast Dark Ritual (Storm count 5, Mana: BBBB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 6, Mana: BBBB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, sacrificing Lion's Eye Diamond when you have priority for BBB (Storm count 7, Mana: BBBBB. At this point, you cannot win via Ill-Gotten Gains since you cannot cast Duress and still have enough mana to generate lethal storm. You are then forced to cast Ad Nauseam without any mana floating (see below).

Drawing a Lion's Eye Diamond from the Brainstorm creates a better result. Consider

-Play Island
-Cast Brainstorm drawing Lion's Eye Diamond and plus two blank cards. Put the two blank cards on top your deck.
-Cast Lotus Petal (Storm count 2)
-Cast Dark Ritual, sacrificing Lotus Petal to pay for it (Storm count 3, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Duress (Storm count 4, Mana: BB). At this point, if you see Force of Will, you have them discard it.
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 5, Mana: BB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 6, Mana: BB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, sacrificing both Lion's Eye Diamonds for BBB while retaining priority (Storm count 7, Mana: BBBBBB). You will still have insufficient mana to cast Ill-Gotten Gains as your kill condition considering that you must return Duress to your hand to force them to discard Force of Will. Therefore, your only option is to cast Ad Nauseam, but with a B mana floating.

In either situation, Ill-Gotten Gains becomes viable if your opponent does not have Force of Will in hand. Statically 60% of the time you will not find a Force of Will in your opponent's hand.

While casting Brainstorm can prove valuable, both lines in which we draw a Lion's Eye Diamond or Dark Ritual from the Brainstorm result in us being in the same position as discussed below, albeit with protection via Duress.

If we don't opt to cast Brainstorm, then what else can we do?

Is it possible to kill turn one?
Possible lines of play
-Play Island
-Lotus Petal (Storm count 1)
-Sacrifice Lotus Petal for black and cast Dark Ritual (Storm count 2, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 3, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, cracking Lion's Eye Diamond for three black mana before it resolves (Storm Count 4, Mana: BBBB)

At this point, you would need to look at your options.

Is it possible to tutor chain?
No, you lack the necessary mana).

Is it possible to win with Ill-Gotten Gains?
No, you will only be able generate nine storm. For reference, here is how it would play out
-Play Island
-Lotus Petal (Storm count 1)
-Sacrifice Lotus Petal for black and cast Dark Ritual (Storm count 2, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 3, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, cracking Lion's Eye Diamond for three black mana before it resolves (Storm Count 4, Mana: BBBB). Find Ill-Gotten Gains with Infernal Tutor.
-Cast Ill-Gotten Gains tapping the Island to use for paying (Storm count 5, Mana: B). Return Lion's Eye Diamond, Infernal Tutor, and Dark Ritual to your hand.
-Cast Dark Ritual (Storm count 6, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 7, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, cracking Lion's Eye Diamond in response for three black Mana (Storm count 8, Mana: BBBB). Search for Tendrils of Agony. At this point, you could cast it, but you would have only 9 storm after it resolves.

Is it possible to kill with Ad Nauseam?
Yes, it is.

-Play Island
-Lotus Petal (Storm count 1)
-Sacrifice Lotus Petal for black and cast Dark Ritual (Storm count 2, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Lion's Eye Diamond (Storm count 3, Mana: BBB)
-Cast Infernal Tutor, cracking Lion's Eye Diamond for three black mana before it resolves (Storm Count 4, Mana: BBBB). Search for Ad Nauseam.
-Cast Ad Nauseam by spending the BBBB and taping the Island for mana.

The question we are left with is whether or not this is the optimal play. The list we're playing only runs four Lotus Petal and it does not run Chrome Mox. When considering whether or not to cast Ad Nauseam in this instance, with no mana floating, it should give you a fair amount pause. In order to win via Ad Nauseam, you will need to find at least one of three Lotus Petal which are left in your deck. At this point, you have 52 cards left in your deck which means the odds are not in your favor. Additionally, if you only reveal one Lotus Petal, you must also reveal a Dark Ritual (of which you only have 3 remaining in your deck). Furthermore, unless every card you're revealing is rituals and Lotus Petals, you will also need a Lion's Eye Diamond to active Hellbent on Infernal Tutor*. Revealing a tutor should not be too difficult since you have five remaining in your deck.

*There are two exceptions to this. First, is if you reveal Tendrils of Agony along with enough Lotus Petals and rituals to generate lethal storm. Second, you can use Grim Tutor instead of Tendrils of Agony since it does not require you to be Hellbent in order to search.

The final option is to play an Island and pass the turn. This play seems to be the safest play. If we draw one of the fourteen lands in the deck that produce black mana or any of your remain acceleration pieces the following turn, we are in much better shape since we can cast Duress as a protection before attempting to combo off. Additionally, if we draw one of ten fetchlands, we can effectively Brainstorm. Even drawing a Ponder or Preordain in this situation is beneficial since casting it will likely result in us finding our second land drop which has an extremely high probability of being one which can produce black mana. Additionally, drawing any acceleration effects allows us to cast Duress and still allows us to cast Ad Nauseam or potentially Ill-Gotten Gains. Brainstorm can allow us to hide our combo pieces from a turn one Duress effect.

This line of play is not without risk. It leaves us vulnerable to Spell Pierce, Cursecatcher, and Spell Snare in addition to their potential Force of Will. All of which could be backed up by Daze.

If you're the type of player that "plays it safe", you lay the land and pass the turn. If you play the odds, which are in your favor, you have two decisions: do you cast Brainstorm and attempt to go off, or do you just go off without casting Brainstorm?

[AriLax]

Fossil, the one thing you missed is that if Ad Naus resolves you are most likely going to be able to pass the turn, untap, and go off even if you miss. I would personally play island and pass the turn, then EOT Brainstorm if my opponent is representing a non-Force of Will deck and main phase Brainstorm if they are Blue, but T1 Ad Naus is better than you are suggesting it is.