[Deck] Belcher

[JJ_JKidd]

Posted this on Storm Boards, and thought it might be useful for some of you guys:

Got some interesting statistics from my simulations for Diminshing Returns in a standard RG belcher list. I assume you have five storm (including DR) and my simulation alternates between four situations:
-RFGed Wish and SSG
-RFGed Wish and ESG
-Chrome Mox in play + RFGed Wish and random imprinted card
-RFGed Wish and taiga in play

Results are given as percent of wins off of Diminshing Returns.

Preboard:
With no mana floating - 42.32%
R floating - 62.67%
G floating - 60.46%
RR floating - 70.46%
RG floating - 71.12%
GG floating - 66.15%

Postboard (board in 6-8 Xantid/REB):
With no mana floating - 29.32%
R floating - 52.52%
G floating - 49.77%
RR floating - 65.31%
RG floating - 66.66%
GG floating - 58.52%

The big thing to underline here is that you may need to be more cautious using DR postboard. Also, average storm count with DR is ~11, so using bw->Tendrils seems like a good plan.

Do you have some kind of software for your simulation? Or just the manual goldfishing?

[OurSerratedDust]

I wrote a Belcher simulation in java, and modified it for cases with Diminishing Returns.

[yankeedave]

I'm just finishing up a belcher piloting simulation I'm writing in Java. I still need to add a couple features, but so far I've tuned the deck to get a first turn win ratio almost 10% better than standard belcher lists. Once I fully optimize the deck and bring it to an event, I'll post the list here. Keep your eyes peeled!

Thanks for your updates using DR, but have you finished your new optimised list through the simulator yet? I would be interested in hearing about it.

[OurSerratedDust]

I'm going to a large event in two or three weeks and I'm going to do a report/write up on the list, regardless of how I do.

[2sided3angle]

Played Belcher at the SCG Baltimore event. Went 4-4, 70ish place out of 200+

Lost do decks that had either FOW or ways to deal with the swarm of goblins, two of the four being Alex Bertoncini and AJ Sacher.

[2sided3angle]

So... with Belcher, how do you play against counter magic?

Do you still want the explosiveness of turn 1 with a ETW or pray that Belcher doesn't get countered? Do you slow you style down?

[Fortunae]

Hi everyone, I am currently in the midst of assembling Belcher and was asked today whether I am building it with or without land. Can someone give me a quick rundown of the pros and cons of each? It seems like landless Belcher would be better since you are guaranteed to kill them with an activation, but I really don't know.

Thanks!

[Parax]

Hi everyone, I am currently in the midst of assembling Belcher and was asked today whether I am building it with or without land. Can someone give me a quick rundown of the pros and cons of each? It seems like landless Belcher would be better since you are guaranteed to kill them with an activation, but I really don't know.

Thanks!

Run one land, with 4 Land Grant. It goes a long way and its like running 5 lands!

[yankeedave]

I'm going to a large event in two or three weeks and I'm going to do a report/write up on the list, regardless of how I do.

Hey mate, any news on the hot tech? I have a tourney this weekend and I want to play something unfair!

[andrebonotto]

Greetings for all,

I followed this thread for some time, but now I think it looks very quiet ...

Since I'm trying to finish my Belcher deck (I'm currently 1x LED shorter), I was wondering:

1) Is Belcher still competitive in today's metagame?

2) Do you know any relevant results of Belcher players?

3) How good is Goblin Welder in the deck (MD or SB) nowadays?

4)

(...) any news on the hot tech? (...) !

Has someone came upon any new tech that improve this deck's strategie?


Any insights are welcome. ...

[Anen]

3) How good is Goblin Welder in the deck (MD or SB) nowadays?

It's not good since you don't give priority between the cast and the activation. And if you do, it means you don't have enough mana, so you don't wanna spend one more in Welder. My opinion.

[John Cox]

Greetings for all,

I followed this thread for some time, but now I think it looks very quiet ...

Since I'm trying to finish my Belcher deck (I'm currently 1x LED shorter), I was wondering:

1) Is Belcher still competitive in today's metagame?

2) Do you know any relevant results of Belcher players?

3) How good is Goblin Welder in the deck (MD or SB) nowadays?

4)
Has someone came upon any new tech that improve this deck's strategie?


Any insights are welcome. ...

1) It's not the best, theres a lot of blue running around and that always trouble for belcher.
2) I haven't really seen a whole lot.
3) It would be great in our metagame if every deck didn't have a ton of removal. Welding back a countered goblin charbelcher would be great, but I doubt goblin welder would last till it lost summoning sickness.
4) Some people have mentioned Serum Powder, I tried it about a year ago and did well, that may be worth looking at.

[jan64]

Hi, I played belcher at GP Amsterdam, and made day 2 with it ( i think there where 2 belchers day 2).

my ideas about the deck:
1) it's not tier 1 but can make great results
2) it's an easy deck, and you have lots time left to eat between rounds
3) it hates blue decks
4) its fun, thats whats its all about in MtG!

I started not concentrated with the first 3 rounds 1-2, and then made 6-0.
Last round day one 1st game won on my first turn, 2nd game he played his first land of the match, duressed me ( took belcher), my first turn i draw belcher and won :-).
Must be hard to lose your ticket for day 2 that way.
Day 2 started with 2 wins, and then the blue decks came 3 losses and drop...
1-2 to 9-2 ending 9-5 was a good run for me!

We ( a friend played it to, once made 10-0 with it on a legacy side event at a GP...) played a version with 3 serum powder main deck ( out: 3 chrome moxes, still playing 1 chrome mox). Chrome mox is to many times a dead card in your opening hand. Serum powder's free mulligan gave me more wins!!! Always fun to see your opp's face when you remove your hand (face up! ) from the game, and say mulligan to 7!
Once in mul to 7, mul to 6, mul to 6 and won turn one ( there was 1 win con gone, so i draw from a deck with 47 cards and 10 win con!!! )

SB: must gaves:
diminishing returns
EtW
4 pyroblast
4 xantid swarm ( with those and the pyroblast its still running uphill against blue counters)
pyroclasm ( against those pesky teegs )
shattering spree

[GoldenCid]

I'm not sure if serum powder is a necesity altohugh it's interesting. Belcher has the best T1 hands in the format, that's a reality. You opo MUST have FoW (on the draw) in his opening hand or he/she probably will die to us. This is another reality.
Another thing that's true is that against U decks your opo will mull up to have at least 2 counters in hand which is terrible. Once it happened to a friend of mine running belcher: his oppo mull to 5 and got 2 Fow 1 island and a Pierce! Off course his counter hate was not enought. However, belcher, which is a fair Tier 1.5, has the first 2 characterics mantioned by jan64, it's an all in all deck you win or loose quickly which imports in long tournamnets and makes a very very high pressure on your opo. I was thinking on a 2 land version as a response to the meta to include discard stuff but i hesitate if it's really necesary. This is how i'm running it nowadays (12 cantrips belcher):

// Deck file for Magic Workstation (http://www.magicworkstation.com)

// Lands
1 [U] Taiga

// Creatures
4 [IA] Tinder Wall
4 [AL] Elvish Spirit Guide
4 [PLC] Simian Spirit Guide
4 [FUT] Street Wraith

// Spells
4 [JU] Burning Wish
3 [TSP] Empty the Warrens
4 [SHM] Manamorphose
4 [MR] Goblin Charbelcher
4 [MM] Land Grant
4 [TE] Lotus Petal
4 [MI] Lion's Eye Diamond
4 [9E] Seething Song
4 [CHK] Desperate Ritual
4 [CS] Rite of Flame
4 [NPH] Gitaxian Probe

// Sideboard
SB: 1 [TSP] Empty the Warrens
SB: 4 [SC] Xantid Swarm
SB: 1 [GP] Shattering Spree
SB: 1 [NE] Reverent Silence
SB: 1 [TSP] Grapeshot
SB: 2 [LRW] Ingot Chewer
SB: 1 [DIS] Infernal Tutor
SB: 1 [SC] Tendrils of Agony
SB: 3 [4E] Red Elemental Blast

Cheers,

GC.

[Beatusnox]

played at a local tournament last weekend. Went 3-3. lost round one due to not mulling aggresively enough. Won against mono red. Lost to bant. 1-2. Free win next round(bye). Free win following round (dredge). And lost in round six to reanimator.

All in all I'm happy with how the deck performed, upset at my inability to mulligan aggresivey enough. As for hot new tech, 2 of past in flames in a more ritual heavy build. Allows for even more explosive turn ones

[Vacrix]

I'm not sure if serum powder is a necesity altohugh it's interesting. Belcher has the best T1 hands in the format, that's a reality. You opo MUST have FoW (on the draw) in his opening hand or he/she probably will die to us. This is another reality.

This is not reality. SI has always been the fastest deck in the format. It has a far higher turn 1 win percentage even than Serum Powder belcher lists. This is because the deck only needs 3 cards to go off. Further, Belcher lists tend to empty their entire hand into one play while SI only uses part of its hand to go off, meaning that if the opponent DOES have FoW, then you aren't completely blown out.
Further, SI mulligans better than any other deck in the format for this same reason.

Just wanted to clear that up.

[andrebonotto]

Now this thread seems a bit alive


@Anen:

I was thinking about using Welder more in a "countered-Belcher-backup-plan" way...

Still, as John Cox pointed, the meta is full of removal, and I think I'm following his conclusion that we should "doubt goblin welder would last till it lost summoning sickness"...


@Jonh Cox

Because of the U-decks running around, how do you think one should evaluete his initial hand playing in a tournament, in order to have a "safe start" against an unknow deck?


@Beatusnox

What would you mean by "mulligan aggresivey enough" ? (To have a win-con and the mana to activate it?)


-----------------------------

about Serum Powder...

I heard about it, but someone pointed that it makes our initial hands more dificult to evaluate. Since I don't have much experience with the deck, I think I'll start without it and see how it goes.


about playing nowadays...

It was nice to read about jan64's experience at GP Amsterdam, for since I hadn't heard a word about Belcher playing in recent tournaments, I was wondering if this deck was indeed "playable" anymore (there are some people on my meta that have already gave up on it)


about deckbuilding...

I'm building a RG version with 11 win-con MD (4 Belcher, 4 Burning Wish, 3 ETW), 4 Chrome Mox, and planning on the following SB:


1 Empty the Warrens
4 Xantid Swarm
4 Red Elemental Blast
1 Reverent Silence
1 Shattering Spree
1 Pyroclasm
1 Hull Breach
1 Goblin War Strike
1 Diminishing Returns

However, I have doubts on how to use Diminishing Returns properly.

I am, too, a bit hesitanting on this configuration of the SB. Do you have suggestions of upgrades on it?


P.S.: Why to use Ingot Chewer over Shattering Spree? (Or why to split between them?) Spree seems superior to me because of the Replicate ability. Would Chewer frequently see play as a permanent creature?

[Final Fortune]

Diminishing Returns is a fail safe against aggressive mulliganing, you'll find if you're forced to mull to 5 that you can still resolve Burning Wish but without the storm to generate a lethal wave of goblins where Dimisning Returns allows you to draw a new 7 and free rolls you into + 5 storm. It's also probably the strongest top deck play, as you'll spend most of your mana trying to resolve a Belcher, get it countered with a Lion's Eye Diamond in hand and then rip a Burning Wish off the top and just go for it.

Serum Powder hands aren't really hard to evaluate, you ask yourself whether or not you can kill with the 6 cards in your hand or the 6 cards in your hand + a top decked mana source (I'm not counting Serum Powder itself) and if not you ship the hand. I actually think the cantrip lists are way harder (and shittier) to play because you have to mull any hand with 6 mana sources and a cantrip because the odds of drawing a win condition are pretty terrible and after the printing of the new red ritual, green chancellor and the unbanning of Monolith there's pretty much no reason to play that shit because you're glutted for accelerants.

Also I agree with Vacrix, SI is a better deck than Belcher, people just play Belcher because it's "child proof."

[Vacrix]

I'm actually interested in lists that run Recross the Paths. Is anyone running it and do you have any results specifically to Recross hands?

[Beatusnox]

by the mulligans i mean i kept a hand that allowed 10 goblins which while normally getting there, didnt against intuition elves. Game two, i keep a hand that generates 6 mana and go for warrens again and once again its not enough.

Also, dont be discouraged by people detracting from the deck. It takes more skill and finess(sheer dumb luck helps too) to pilot to a good placement than many other combo decks do.