From what I have read, things seems to be now a little diversified, with players trying different approaches (specially to improve the Miracle MU, among other things):Originally Posted by bruizar
- Black splash with: Deathrite Shaman, Cabal Therapy, Buried Alive + Vengevines;
- White splash with: Gaddock Teeg and Mirror Entity;
- Blue splash with: Intuition for Vengevines, and counter as backup;
But since my terrible and recurrent losses against Miracle, I quit playing Elves for a while (since I must still acquire the Dual-lands for the splashes), and I went to play with Goblins again.
(I did not "give up" on the deck. I'm just "breathing some fresh air" for a while.)
What is so difficult about the miracles matchup? Isn't engineered explosives / ratched bomb / powder keg enough to deal with the deck? Even moment's peace could buy enough turns to combo out, or? What am I missing here.
What is so difficult? Euhm, let's see: CB-top to lock you out, E Tutor to drop moat to prevent you from attacking. RiP/Helm to combo you out, Terminus to put all your critters back in your library. Energy field on T2 to prevent all damage. Am I missing something? Oh yes, I forgot Plow for the first few creatures that actually hit the BF.
EE comes online T2, Bomb not sooner then T3 and Keg not sooner then T4. And that's only if they resolve and after sideboarding. So I guess you could say Miracles is our worst MU. But hey, I could be wrong...
Pretty much summed it all up.
Number one badguy is Terminus. Entreat the Angels is almost just as bad. And Counterbalance can slow us down, although in my version 2 Cavern of Souls and Abrupt Decay's were able to fight CB easily.
Moat shouldn't be a problem if you're playing the good version which in my opinion includes maindeck Mortarpod.
Would you mind sharing your list?
The last list I played to a 3-3 finish, which was basicly the worst finish I have ever had with Elves was this (well, atleast this is how I remember it. I'm at work now)
Creatures [34]
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Regal Force
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Viridian Shaman
2 Mirror Entity
1 Priest of Titania
1 Quirion Ranger
3 Birchlore Rangers
3 Fyndhorn Elves
1 Deathrite Shaman
3 Heritage Druid
3 Llanowar Elves
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Wirewood Symbiote
Artifact [1]
Mortarpod
Instants [2]
1 Crop Rotation
Sorceries [8]
4 Glimpse of Nature
4 Green Sun's Zenith
Lands [16]
1 Horizon Canopy
2 Cavern of Souls
2 Gaea's Cradle
2 Savannah
3 Forest
1 Bayou
1 Misty Rainforest
4 Windswept Heath
Sideboard:
3 Abrupt Decay (Don't be fooled, this doesn't really do that much, but it can open a hole end of turn by destroying Counterbalance before you to go off next turn. If they don't have Terminus on top and are still searching for it you have a chance. Other then that it destroys Jitte's against merfolk etc..)
1 Humility/ Oblivion Ring (not sure, but at the time Show and Tell wasn't showing up much and remember I was switching these 2 around)
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Gaddock Teeg
2 Thorn of Amethyst
1 Meekstone
2 Armaggedon
1 Pithing Needle (later addition to fight Deeds and Sensei's)
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Absolute Law
Something like this was my list.
Match-ups were
UW Miracles 0-2 loss
UR Delver (with maindeck Volcanic Fallouts -.- ) loss 1-2
Merfolk 2-1 win
Merfolk 2-0 win
BUG tempo 0-2 loss (Very strange thing here was he was drawing really bad and had a very slow hand, but that made me assume he was playing a control list with Deeds, which had me not overextend to much and got double hymn'd and creature controled game 1, game 2 deeds came in ofcourse. But again his hymn were randomly awesome for him)
Goblins 2-0 win
Caleb Durward who piloted this deck to a couple top 4 finishes a while back posted an article recently extolling the virtues of DR Shaman and posted a new Elves list (among other lists) to go along with it designed to combat the current meta. The basic idea is DR Shaman is main deck graveyard hate, allowing us to devote more sideboard cards to other matchups like miracles with Luminarch Ascension. He also mentioned the possibility of a black splash for Thoughtseize. Thought I'd post it for discussion.
Here is his list
Main Deck
2 Gaea's Cradle
1 Horizon Canopy
2 Savannah
1 Bayou
2 Forest
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Verdant Catacombs
1 Pendelhaven
1 Dryad Arbor
2 Mirror Entity
1 Viridian Shaman
1 Regal Force
1 Scavenging Ooze
3 Deathrite Shaman
2 Quirion Ranger
1 Priest of Titania
3 Birchlore Rangers
3 Llanowar Elves
2 Fyndhorn Elves
4 Heritage Druid
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Nettle Sentinel
4 Wirewood Symbiote
4 Glimpse of Nature
4 Green Sun's Zenith
Sideboard
1 Gaddock Teeg
3 Luminarch Ascension
2 Meekstone
2 Humility
3 Thorn of Amethyst
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Mortarpod
1 Pithing Needle"
A friend of mine who has been playing Combo Elves for a while, started trying a black splash as well. We brewed a different sideboard which features 3 Abrupt Decays as a general catch-all answer to a lot of things (but primarily Vs UWx Countertop or any other UWx control deck, as destroys CB- obviously, and kills Peacekeeper, who should be your second main concern playing Vs Uwx control... and this card solves both of the problems ) and 4 Cabal Therapies since if you know what to name they wreck control and combo matchups. Most important thing is that these 7 slots are reusable in almost any matchup.
Are you into Jazz? Have a look at the Lp's I have for sale on Discogs!
That sentence is true, applies and I agree with it, when the said T1 Mana producer is also itself and elf, if not it really isn't that great. If the "best" play we can do with the Dryad is starting with T1 Zenith to her, I think she's just not good enough to waste a spot in the deck, under my opinion.
I'd prefer not to have Dryad in the deck, keep the Zenith for something better, and cast another elf (Birchlore, Nettle, Heritage) which will also produce mana. There's plenty of other options to need to add a Dryad.
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I don't play Dryad Arbor either. Sure, it's a spell, and 6-spell hands with dryad arbor would be 7 spells. Unfortunately, hands with 1 arbor, 1 forest, and 5 spells happen. In that case, it would be dead in hand until turn 3. With two lands and 1 arbor, it's almost like you took a mulligan.
Consider this probability table (using a calculator excel file I found on the net):
Cards in Deck 60
# of copies of desired card 1
Probability of having desired card in opening hand 11.67%
Probability of having the desired after drawing on turn:
1 13.33%
2 15.00%
3 16.67%
4 18.33%
5 20.00%
6 21.67%
7 23.33%
18.3% by turn 4 and 20% by turn 5 is far too high for something we never want to see in hand, IMO. This deck takes cards from the library with fetchlands, and draws a lot of cards very quickly using Symbiote/Visionary, so we have higher odds of drawing the card than the table shows us. I'm not sure how much the deck gains from having it in the deck (the number of turn 1 acceleration can simply be increased to 8 or 9 to make up for it) but don't think it could be worth the tradeoff of having a dead card in hand by turns 4-5 once in every 5 games.
re: the black splash
While I don't think Cabal Therapy is all that good in our worst matchups (Miracle, Dredge, and Reanimator), Abrupt Decay gives us an out to Counterbalance. It's definitely something to consider now that the format has Counterbalance again. Ugh. Also, white lets us run Teeg (+Sylvan Safekeeper or Steely Resolve on human). It's not amazing, but Miracle folds to it if resolved early enough, or at all.
I'm getting back into Elves and wanted to ask you guys if you've ever tried Eldrazi Monument? The last time I was tinkering around with Elves I threw this in and was loving it. Most of the games were goldfish'ed so idk how it would do in RL. I find that I can drop some elves and slow roll them with Monument. Flying, indestructible? Thank you!
Oh, I will have to post a list later I reckon. I play with 3 Concordant Crossroads so I don't have to wait a turn to swing.
If you're playing GSZ in this deck, you should be playing Dryad Arbor. Period. The times you draw it in the middle of the game are most of the time completely irrelevant. It sucks in the opener. Sure. That's it. It's not worth losing 4 more free mana dorks that leave creatures in your hand for Glimpsing.
Abrupt Decay is not the only answer to Counterbalance. If you resolve an early Pithing Needle on Top, you're still probably going to win.
@Oiolosse:
I've actually played an Eldrazi Monument before when Wrath of God and Perishes were running rampant. It was fine then. Now that Terminus is a thing, I don't think it's worth running as it gets blown up by it too. Also, if you insist on playing Concordant Crossroads (you shouldn't, it sucks), only play one. They do exactly nothing in multiples and you only want one when you're comboing off and going to finish the game. By that point you should have drawn into the one of.
I would also eat the slot and play Dryad Arbor. The times where it provides acceleration on Turn 1 far outweigh the times it hinders in the opening hand. When you really need it, and you don't include make it miserable.
I echo the sentiments with playingCombo Elves. Therapy still provides disruption and supplements Thorns against combo matchups. Abrupt Decay is a nice upgrade for Krosan Grip (ok maybe it can't beat Humility, but we're still an infinite creature deck so not a total loss). Moat is answered with Emrakul - again, no loss.
Deathrite Shaman frees up the need to run graveyard hate en masse, so that's a bonus.
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If someone could calculate the odds these events, we would know if this is true or not. The probability of getting a hand with 1 out of 4 zenith without getting 1 out of 6-8 mana dorks or the dryad arbor can be computed. We could compare that with the probability of getting dryad arbor in the opening hand (which we know to be 11.6%). I tried to do that myself but I'm no expert, so I'm not sure of my results.
It is better. 11.66% of the time you'll draw the Dryad Arbor in the opening hand, whereas if you're assuming 8 Llanowar Elves, here's the difference:
.8094 (hands with 8 Llanowar Elves and 4 GSZ) * .8833 (hands with no Dryad Arbor) + .6536 (hands with 8 Llanowar Elves) * .1166 (hands with Dryad Arbor) =
.7911 to have 1+ turn 1 accelerator with Dryad Arbor in deck
vs.
.6536 to have 1+ turn 1 accelerator without Dryad Arbor
These percentages take into account the hand where you have GSZ and Dryad Arbor at the same time. So you get an additional 13.75% chance of having at least one turn 1 accelerant by simply including a Dryad Arbor. Whether that's worth an 11.66% chance of having a bad card in your opening hand is up to you, but the difference is actually pretty small. It exists, but it's just over 2%. It certainly doesn't "far outweigh" the times that it's bad in the opening hand, but it is a statistical advantage and so is probably worth it, in terms of turn 1. Now, what this doesn't take into account is drawing an essentially dead Dryad Arbor in later turns of the game, but with Elves that's less of an issue than with some other decks. It does show though, if you don't have GSZ as your first accelerant, then the odds of drawing a dead Dryad Arbor by turn 2 are just about equal to the benefits of having Dryad Arbor to GSZ for, and on each turn after that you don't GSZ for the Dryad Arbor, it becomes a drag on the deck. If you can absorb the hit of just playing a Dryad Arbor and getting mana out of it the next turn, then I would guess you don't really care about that.
GSZ for arbor turn 1 is no good when you have an Llanowar Elf in hand. It doesn't look like this formula takes that into account.
Edit: To make it more realistic, we also have to factor in the probability of having a forest in the opener (1 out of 15?) so that we can actually play the GSZ.
So it's going to be the probability of having GSZ + Forest WITHOUT having Llanowar Elves or Dryad Arbor.
Yesterday, the Belgian Legacy Cup took place and 2 Comboelves top 8'ed. Lists aren't online yet but I'm surely interested.
Will keep you up to date when I can. (one of the guys top 8'd last week in a smaller event too, 33 players)
Any chance that you can link a top 8 (decklists) or a non french/ not Flämisch - Report for added information?
PM would be preferred.
Regards,
Matt
That's hyper-specific. We could easily find those numbers, but I don't think that that's what everyone's asking. The question is, as I read it, is the probability boost given by including a Dryad Arbor worth the negative of actually drawing the Dryad Arbor, and that's what the statistical experiment that I set up is calculating. It assumes a normal hand, which will, on average, include at least one forest, usually two. You're just under 90% to have at least one Forest in your opener anyway, so that's not going to change the statistics all that dramatically. As for the hands where you have GSZ and a Llanowar Elf, Dryad Arbor is irrelevant unless it's in your opener, as you're going to have all of the mana that you need. If you think it's a case that's worth exploring, I invite you to run the statistics yourself, but as I said, that's such a specific situation and it's not really a question that's being asked.
Top 8 after swiss
1) esperblade
2) sneakshow
3) spiral tide
4) comboelves
5) RUG tempo
6) comboelves
7) omnishow
8) sneakshow
Spiral Tide knocked out elves(6th) in quarter finals, and RUG knocked out the other elves(4th) in quarter finals.
Sneakshow(2) won the event. Not going to put up any names here as I respect their privacy.
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