[Deck] T.E.S. - The EPIC Storm

[sconnell]

Aside the EtW, Past in Flames gets around counters in effect. They're usually on one hard counter in hand most of the time. What are they really going to do?

Past in Flames is nowhere near the league of Storm spells for getting around counterspells. 3R and 4R are not trivial amounts of mana, and will usually require the use of several cards to produce enough to cast. They can counter your first Past in Flames, and hope to have an answer by the time you can flash it back.

[menace13]

Past in Flames is nowhere near the league of Storm spells for getting around counterspells. 3R and 4R are not trivial amounts of mana, and will usually require the use of several cards to produce enough to cast. They can counter your first Past in Flames, and hope to have an answer by the time you can flash it back.

It isn't YWill, but it does put in a lot of work against blue decks.

The other Storm Engine is Past in Flames. Unlike the former Ill-Gotten Gains it's great in the mid-to-late game against blue decks. In order to be stopped, Past in Flames needs to be a counterspell target twice! It also isn't symmetrical, meaning that there’s a storm engine in the sideboard that isn’t beneficial for the opponent too. The downside to playing Past in Flames over Ill-Gotten Gains is that it takes longer to fill the graveyard with Instants and Sorcery cards. By this I mean that, in order to win with Past in Flames the deck needs a couple Rituals in the graveyard where Ill-Gotten Gains can use artifacts like Lion’s Eye Diamond too.

[Jay_Gatz]

Got 3rd in a 48 person tournament on saturday netting me an english The Abyss
Affinity 2-1
Elves 2-0
Esperblade 2-0
Reanimator 0-2
Belcher 2-1
ID
Top8
Reanimator 2-0
Junk Depths 0-2

Interesting notes, 4 players in the top8 got a game loss for deck reg issues including my opponent. I don't get how it is difficult to register a deck. Game 3 against belcher on the play I set up a turn two kill he opens on 7 mana belcher and flips his taiga as the 7th card, people should play real decks. Round 2 elves player payed way more attention to how shiny my deck was that what I was actually doing. Probably could have just cast a few spells and said he was dead and he would have believed me.

[Basaka]

Went a disappointing 2-3 today...

All my wins were against FoW decks and all my losses were against non-blue decks. Not sure if I'm doing it right or not.

Then again, when you are given fantastic triple chrome mox hands you can't really blame yourself. (I mulled 8 times in my first 2 matches!). Hands included: Usea, ponder x3, probe x2, chrome mox (not getting there against D&T on the draw), mine, Decay, 2x probe, ponder, lotus petal (again, not winning against a T2 thalia) and generally poor draws.

It has been my worst legacy finish to date (and I usually top 8 these events!)

Then again, considering I've played 8 matches of magic this weekend, mulled about 15 times over those matches and was mana screwed in roughly 6 of them means I've had a bad week.

[Asthereal]

It's a combo deck. Sometimes it just poops on you.
If it happens often, perhaps you should switch to ANT (more consistent, so less frustrating).

[Basaka]

I win enough games on the back of ETW to prefer TES over ANT. I doubt that playing ANT would have helped much in the matches I lost today (elves, d&t and tinfins) as ANT seems a turn too slow. Winning before Thalia/NO/deathrite etc. being relevant seems better then trying to durdle. Personal opinion anyway.

My friend keeps telling me to play BUG delver as he is something like 18-2, but people here never plays around daze or something. heh.

[Lemnear]

Went a disappointing 2-3 today...

All my wins were against FoW decks and all my losses were against non-blue decks. Not sure if I'm doing it right or not.

Then again, when you are given fantastic triple chrome mox hands you can't really blame yourself. (I mulled 8 times in my first 2 matches!). Hands included: Usea, ponder x3, probe x2, chrome mox (not getting there against D&T on the draw), mine, Decay, 2x probe, ponder, lotus petal (again, not winning against a T2 thalia) and generally poor draws.

That 7 looks reasonable. How did you play it?

edit: I'll give you my solution then. This hand is a easy keep of played correct

[Megadeus]

sounds like he mulled thehand.

[Lemnear]

sounds like he mulled thehand.

Guess you are right here :/

Would be another One for the History of punted Games due to bad mulligan

Edit: The imo correct choice with a known opponent is to cast Probe and depending on the draw or possible revealed wasteland Probe #2, Mox (imprint Ponder), Ponder. If you drop your U.Sea depends on opposing Wasteland or the cards you got with the Probes/Ponder.

[Basaka]

It was vs Death and Taxes. It's probably not going to win me against a T2 thalia or Canonist (which is what he had that game), so I think trying to mull down was correct. Seeing as he went T2 canonist T3 Mirran crusader T4 Jitte.

Against a blue player I would probably keep it but against hatebears.dec I felt it was way too slow especially on the draw. Chances are he could Thalia+MoM lock me before I find the right pieces. I felt it was better to mull down to 6 and win before his cards become relevant rather than trying to durdle around.

Also, say I keep the first hand. I lead with probe, sees Canonist, Crusader and Jitte. I'm probably screwed if he gets Crusader + Jitte online, which means I have 3 turns to kill him.

I need the following combinations to win this turn:

probe (1), probe (2), Mox (3) ponder (4)

1. DR + DR + AdN (from 20 life)
2. DR + LED + IT (16 goblins)
3. DR + lotus petal + ETW (14 goblins)

Alternatively I need something that can deal with the canonist, which can include

1. Cabal therapy (3 in deck)
2. Chain of vapor (2)
3. Abrupt decay (3)

The problem is that if I'm trying to dig for hate for the canonist then I just lose to the Crusader + Jitte because it'll be hard to try and dig for hate + enough gas to kill my opponent especially seeing I have 0 initial sources to do so.

So I decided that mulling seemed better. Feel free to discuss

[jin]

It was vs Death and Taxes. It's probably not going to win me against a T2 thalia or Canonist (which is what he had that game), so I think trying to mull down was correct. Seeing as he went T2 canonist T3 Mirran crusader T4 Jitte.

Against a blue player I would probably keep it but against hatebears.dec I felt it was way too slow especially on the draw. Chances are he could Thalia+MoM lock me before I find the right pieces. I felt it was better to mull down to 6 and win before his cards become relevant rather than trying to durdle around.

Also, say I keep the first hand. I lead with probe, sees Canonist, Crusader and Jitte. I'm probably screwed if he gets Crusader + Jitte online, which means I have 3 turns to kill him.

I need the following combinations to win this turn:

probe (1), probe (2), Mox (3) ponder (4)

1. DR + DR + AdN (from 20 life)
2. DR + LED + IT (16 goblins)
3. DR + lotus petal + ETW (14 goblins)

Alternatively I need something that can deal with the canonist, which can include

1. Cabal therapy (3 in deck)
2. Chain of vapor (2)
3. Abrupt decay (3)

The problem is that if I'm trying to dig for hate for the canonist then I just lose to the Crusader + Jitte because it'll be hard to try and dig for hate + enough gas to kill my opponent especially seeing I have 0 initial sources to do so.

So I decided that mulling seemed better. Feel free to discuss

If you have D&T in your metagame, is it safe to look into playing Massacre in the SB like ANT? What would be the card to be cut for the Massacre?

[Basaka]

Honestly, in our local metagame you usually won't see more than one of each deck, including more fringe ones like lands and MUD (except Delver and Stoneblade variants) - so there isn't much point trying to SB just for the D&T matchup (which can probably be said for larger, wide open metagames too). I might just consider running more Cabals main, but I think 1 in the main is the sweet spot for now. Unless I go for 2 Therapy / 1 duress main and 1 more in the side... hmm.

[Lemnear]

It was vs Death and Taxes. It's probably not going to win me against a T2 thalia or Canonist (which is what he had that game), so I think trying to mull down was correct. Seeing as he went T2 canonist T3 Mirran crusader T4 Jitte.

Against a blue player I would probably keep it but against hatebears.dec I felt it was way too slow especially on the draw. Chances are he could Thalia+MoM lock me before I find the right pieces. I felt it was better to mull down to 6 and win before his cards become relevant rather than trying to durdle around.

Also, say I keep the first hand. I lead with probe, sees Canonist, Crusader and Jitte. I'm probably screwed if he gets Crusader + Jitte online, which means I have 3 turns to kill him.

I need the following combinations to win this turn:

probe (1), probe (2), Mox (3) ponder (4)

1. DR + DR + AdN (from 20 life)
2. DR + LED + IT (16 goblins)
3. DR + lotus petal + ETW (14 goblins)

Alternatively I need something that can deal with the canonist, which can include

1. Cabal therapy (3 in deck)
2. Chain of vapor (2)
3. Abrupt decay (3)

The problem is that if I'm trying to dig for hate for the canonist then I just lose to the Crusader + Jitte because it'll be hard to try and dig for hate + enough gas to kill my opponent especially seeing I have 0 initial sources to do so.

So I decided that mulling seemed better. Feel free to discuss

You were on the play, correct? You are able to dig 10 cards deep turn 1 with a whooping draw of 4 fresh cards Turn 1 to either find a turn 2 kill or a Wish for grapeshot to kill his hatebears later. Most important: the chrome mox is Rock solid mana vs Thalia/cannonist and a mulligan may not give you 2 Initial mana. Mox + imprint isn't worse than a mulligan.

[Basaka]

I was on the draw. If i was on the play I would have kept that hand, but I felt it was a turn too slow on the draw.

Then again, when you are given fantastic triple chrome mox hands you can't really blame yourself. (I mulled 8 times in my first 2 matches!). Hands included: Usea, ponder x3, probe x2, chrome mox (not getting there against D&T on the draw)

Also, TES vs Deathblade on SCG right now. Bard Narson lost G1 because he wastelanded a USea instead of the gemstone mine, letting silence resolve.

[Viridia]

He won game 2 after a topdeck Flusterstorm the turn after he got probed :(

[feline]

Looks like a TES is hittin top 8 tonight!

[Basaka]

I wanted to see a showboat grapeshot... lol

Brad Nelson @fffreakmtg
I am so bad at this game!

[sconnell]

It was vs Death and Taxes. It's probably not going to win me against a T2 thalia or Canonist (which is what he had that game), so I think trying to mull down was correct. Seeing as he went T2 canonist T3 Mirran crusader T4 Jitte.

Against a blue player I would probably keep it but against hatebears.dec I felt it was way too slow especially on the draw. Chances are he could Thalia+MoM lock me before I find the right pieces. I felt it was better to mull down to 6 and win before his cards become relevant rather than trying to durdle around.
...
The problem is that if I'm trying to dig for hate for the canonist then I just lose to the Crusader + Jitte because it'll be hard to try and dig for hate + enough gas to kill my opponent especially seeing I have 0 initial sources to do so.

So I decided that mulling seemed better. Feel free to discuss

A few points, overlapping with what Lemnear has said:

- mulligans with TES are really painful. Each card your forego makes it that much harder to have initial mana sources + extra mana + something to win with (also + something to deal with a hatebear if you aren't winning quickly.) That's quite a bit to hope for from 7 cards, let alone less than 7. So a 7-card hand that has a chance of working out OK - even if it needs to cantrip into some specific cards - shouldn't be thrown back lightly; just because sometimes it won't work out doesn't mean it's a snap mulligan. The worst case scenario for the hands in question is pretty awful, but so is the worst case scenario for going to 6.

- I don't think it's helpful to focus on how the hand worked out with the specific hand that the opponent had (canonist into crusader into jitte.) That's one of the fastest clocks they can assemble, and generally you would have a bit more time. The decision should be made based on the information you have at the time. Next time you face a similar mulligan decision, the opponent might not have the same sequence of cards, and it would be a mistake to always assume they are going hatebear into crusader into jitte.

- so, what information do we have? This is a post-sideboard game versus DnT where we are on the draw (I think.) DnT has kept their hand, which probably means they have at least one hatebear (or ET for canonist.) Less likely but possible is that they have a hand which doesn't have a hatebear, but is heavy on wastelands/ports. Also possible is that they kept a hand with other hate (eg Mindbreak Trap/Chalice) and no hatebear. Since hatebear + mana is probably a keep for them, the other cards in their hand could be anything. They might have wastelands/ports, they might have a fast clock, they might have mother, they might have a second hatebear, they might have other hate, they might not have anything particularly relevant. I don't think there's any reason to assume that DnT will necessarily get access to Mother of Runes very quickly. Sometimes they will have it, and protect their hatebear before you can kill it, other times not.

- given that we know they probably have a hatebear, and we are on the draw, that means that we want either 1) a hand that wins turn 1 2) cabal therapy(ideally with probe) 3) a hand with a way to remove a hatebear or 4) a hand which can dig for removal if it is needed. Extra lands and Chrome Mox can be quite valuable in this matchup to get to the point where you can remove a hatebear.

- the hand we are looking at is underground sea, ponderx3, probex2, chrome mox. This hand isn't a turn 1 win, but has the potential for one. It also has the potential of being able to deal with a hatebear. You also get access to a lot of extra information (opponent's hand from probe + top 3 cards of your deck from ponders) which helps you work out which kind of hand you need to sculpt. Some of the time, none of the extra cards you get to look at will be what you want, and your opponent will have either more hate or a fast clock to finish you before you can remove a hatebear and then assemble a kill.

- re: split of Therapy and Duress main. I'm currently testing 3 therapy 0 duress main (1 of each in the side), because that will give me an idea of what it's like to draw cabal therapy more regularly. The two main things I want to see are 1) how often I have therapy but wish it was duress (especially game one) and 2) how often I end up casting a relevant flashed back Therapy after Empty. After getting a sense of what it's like having therapy main more often, I'll decide what ratio to settle on. I don't have enough information yet.

- the other hand mentioned was "mine, Decay, 2x probe, ponder, lotus petal (again, not winning against a T2 thalia)" - I am assuming on the play - there hasn't been much discussion of this one. At first glance, I'm not sure I would throw this back. There are basically two ways this hand can play out into a win. First, the extra cards from probes/ponder let you go off turn 1 or 2. Second, the extra cards give you more mana (or a chain of vapour), allowing you to bounce a hatebear and win the following turn, after accumulating some more combo pieces. This hand might work out badly if the opponent has wasteland but a mulligan hand will still have to overcome the wasteland.

[Basaka]

A few points, overlapping with what Lemnear has said:

- mulligans with TES are really painful. Each card your forego makes it that much harder to have initial mana sources + extra mana + something to win with (also + something to deal with a hatebear if you aren't winning quickly.) That's quite a bit to hope for from 7 cards, let alone less than 7. So a 7-card hand that has a chance of working out OK - even if it needs to cantrip into some specific cards - shouldn't be thrown back lightly; just because sometimes it won't work out doesn't mean it's a snap mulligan. The worst case scenario for the hands in question is pretty awful, but so is the worst case scenario for going to 6.

- I don't think it's helpful to focus on how the hand worked out with the specific hand that the opponent had (canonist into crusader into jitte.) That's one of the fastest clocks they can assemble, and generally you would have a bit more time. The decision should be made based on the information you have at the time. Next time you face a similar mulligan decision, the opponent might not have the same sequence of cards, and it would be a mistake to always assume they are going hatebear into crusader into jitte.

- so, what information do we have? This is a post-sideboard game versus DnT where we are on the draw (I think.) DnT has kept their hand, which probably means they have at least one hatebear (or ET for canonist.) Less likely but possible is that they have a hand which doesn't have a hatebear, but is heavy on wastelands/ports. Also possible is that they kept a hand with other hate (eg Mindbreak Trap/Chalice) and no hatebear. Since hatebear + mana is probably a keep for them, the other cards in their hand could be anything. They might have wastelands/ports, they might have a fast clock, they might have mother, they might have a second hatebear, they might have other hate, they might not have anything particularly relevant. I don't think there's any reason to assume that DnT will necessarily get access to Mother of Runes very quickly. Sometimes they will have it, and protect their hatebear before you can kill it, other times not.

- given that we know they probably have a hatebear, and we are on the draw, that means that we want either 1) a hand that wins turn 1 2) cabal therapy(ideally with probe) 3) a hand with a way to remove a hatebear or 4) a hand which can dig for removal if it is needed. Extra lands and Chrome Mox can be quite valuable in this matchup to get to the point where you can remove a hatebear.

- the hand we are looking at is underground sea, ponderx3, probex2, chrome mox. This hand isn't a turn 1 win, but has the potential for one. It also has the potential of being able to deal with a hatebear. You also get access to a lot of extra information (opponent's hand from probe + top 3 cards of your deck from ponders) which helps you work out which kind of hand you need to sculpt. Some of the time, none of the extra cards you get to look at will be what you want, and your opponent will have either more hate or a fast clock to finish you before you can remove a hatebear and then assemble a kill.

- re: split of Therapy and Duress main. I'm currently testing 3 therapy 0 duress main (1 of each in the side), because that will give me an idea of what it's like to draw cabal therapy more regularly. The two main things I want to see are 1) how often I have therapy but wish it was duress (especially game one) and 2) how often I end up casting a relevant flashed back Therapy after Empty. After getting a sense of what it's like having therapy main more often, I'll decide what ratio to settle on. I don't have enough information yet.

- the other hand mentioned was "mine, Decay, 2x probe, ponder, lotus petal (again, not winning against a T2 thalia)" - I am assuming on the play - there hasn't been much discussion of this one. At first glance, I'm not sure I would throw this back. There are basically two ways this hand can play out into a win. First, the extra cards from probes/ponder let you go off turn 1 or 2. Second, the extra cards give you more mana (or a chain of vapour), allowing you to bounce a hatebear and win the following turn, after accumulating some more combo pieces. This hand might work out badly if the opponent has wasteland but a mulligan hand will still have to overcome the wasteland.

- Yes, I know it's painful to mull with TES, but my line of thinking was that on the draw I probably won't have the leisure to fire off the cantrips before he can soft-lock me out of the game. I think the decision was also compounded by bias, as I've already mulliganed 6 times in the previous 5 games, and I've had terrible cantrips the whole day. In retrospect it MAY have been better to keep that hand and try and dig into something, however, there was no guarantee either way, and my eventual 5 was one tutor away from a kill (which I bricked after 2 ponders and a chain of vapour, again.)

- It is totally possible that I'm just trying to be too conservative with this deck when making mulligan decisions.

- The potential for a T1 kill/virtual kill to me was too low. I need 3 different specific combinations of 3 cards (which 2 involved single copies) within 6 cards, or I had to sacrifice 1-2 turns to try set up a kill through a hatebear. Not to mention that D&T runs SFMs which could totally blank EtW later. Also, I knew his deck had 7 copies of hatebears in total after sideboarding so the chances of him having 1-2 copies are pretty high.

- The problem with that hand is that if I dig for an abrupt decay, I would not be able to cast it unless I drew a rainbow land (since the mox only makes blue). If I had access to more colours it may have changed my decision.

- the 6 card mine/probe/etc hand was from the same game, which made it worse because it is even weaker to wasteland.

I do believe the main question is whether it is better keeping a cantrip-heavy, slow hand on the draw against a deck with known hatebears or whether it'll be better to try and mull for a quicker kill. It seems the consensus leaned towards keeping the cantrips, which should be a good point for me to consider next time there is a similar situation. Live and learn!

[sconnell]

This has been an interesting discussion.

I try to err against mulligans with TES - if I'm not sure then I keep. I figure that if I consistently apply this strategy and find myself losing games from keeping hands that I wasn't sure about, then I need to mulligan more often. If not, I'm probably doing OK. If you don't try keeping less-than-ideal-but-potentially-ok hands like the one we've been discussing, you don't get a chance to see how often they work out. Converting cantrippy sculpty hands into wins is one of the toughest parts of playing TES.

It does work both ways - by keeping a hand I don't get to see what would have happened if I'd gone to 6 - but if I'm generally winning from those keeps I think I can live with that.

I need the following combinations to win this turn:

probe (1), probe (2), Mox (3) ponder (4)

1. DR + DR + AdN (from 20 life)
2. DR + LED + IT (16 goblins)
3. DR + lotus petal + ETW (14 goblins)

I'm not sure if I understand your notation, but it looks like you might have overlooked that LED in the top 4 opens up the sequence of Probe->Ponder ->Probe (response crack LED, draw whatever card you put on top.) For example:
Probe (draw silence)
Chrome Mox (imprint Ponder), tap for Ponder. Draw LED and put Empty on top above some other card.
LED
sea, tap for mana
probe (crack LED for RRR in response), cast Empty.

Multiple LEDs, or LED+DR can open up more lines.

At 2) you have DR+LED+IT into Goblins, but note that you can also access goblins off DR+LED+BW:
Probe (draw DR or LED)
Chrome (imprint Ponder), tap for Ponder. Draw the other of LED/DR and put BW on top above some other card.
sea, DR (BBB floating)
LED
Probe (crack LED for RRR in response), cast BW into Empty.

Granted, having LED in the top 4 is not likely, and having LED + other cards that get you a win less likely. However, if you are overlooking these sorts of lines then you might be undervaluing cantrip hands.