Turns out I have a little more time today after all :) I'll present my opinion on Peter's proposed 'Sol Land' plan that's been talked about here for the past few weeks. I haven't dismissed any opinions without thought and, for the record, I can appreciate the time that went into forming the long explanation posts. I understand what you're trying to achieve and the logic behind it.
I agree with Bryant. People are entitled to a different perception, but to me, TES is a Belcher deck with disruption that uses blue cards to increase consistency and is still capable of winning a long game. I'd estimate I win around half of my games through outright aggression (either T1 kill or T1 set-up, T2 kill) and destroying them before they can interact in any relevant way. I am wary of taking any direction that moves the deck away from this; cutting Empty the Warrens, removing Chrome Moxen and increasing the land count all do exactly that.
If we're deciding to instead play a longer game, that raises the ANT vs Sol Storm(?) discussion...
I had typed a few paragraphs around this, but honestly, it's a difficult argument. Both approaches are defensible. For example, I understand that avoiding using the graveyard as a primary resource is a positive move (being forced to rely on Past in Flames when against graveyard hate is truly awful), but the power level of Cabal Ritual cannot be denied and the likelihood of the aforementioned graveyard scenario occurring is debatable. Perhaps a conclusion could be reached after testing both decks. Regardless, I won't be spending any more thought on it - in my opinion, the benefits to a slower approach, whatever approach that may be, come at too high a cost.
This is a matter of opinion, but I think we just need to get over it. There's nothing better than Chrome Mox that we aren't already playing. I don't even think the card is bad! I actually think it's pretty good! Sure, I dislike it in multiples pre-Ad Nauseam as much as the next man - it's frustrating and it does occur a little more than I would like, but I honestly don't think there's a decent remedy for that.
If it were possible to run 2.5 Chrome Mox I'd be delighted. Until then, find me something decent to replace the 3rd Chrome Mox with and I'll consider it, but I won't be leaving the other 2 at home any time soon.
The nearest 'solution' is the Simian Spirit Guide approach that Asthereal has been discussing, so I'll give my opinion on that too:
I appreciate you taking the time to take another look at this card (particularly your objectivity when doing it), but while you've discovered that some of the cons aren't that relevant in practice, I think the overall detriment (extra Ad Nauseam life-loss, colour restriction, lack of storm count and its lack of help with becoming hellbent) make the card worse than the moxen - even if any one drawback isn't significant.
I don't think the metagame will be exceptionally vulnerable to Goblins, not that Eli Kassis (Grixis Control), Brian Braun-Duin (Jeskai Stoneblade) and Bob Huang (UR Delver) showed that Ponder, Brainstorm, Probe, Young Pyromancer and Treasure Cruise define a core which you have to be prepared for as a player.
This has the downside that pyromancer is a suprisingly efficient anti-EtW plan if you can't get going T1/2 and that people will be prepared for that threat in the future which also harms our EtW plan, as more SB slots will be dedicated to x/1 creatures like it was the case during TNNs heights. On top of that, we have to expect heavy stack-countermeasures in Games 2 & 3 which pushes our critical turn beyond turn 2 anyways. This and the vulnerability of goblins (Miracles!) leave me with doubts about the heavy focus on the EtW-plan and I thought about limiting it to Burning Wish for 6 and to Infernal for 8 mana. The Sol Storm idea aims to a T2/3 AN with EtW as a backup/surprise-plan.
While we are at "get going T1/2": I'm a bit baffled about the emphasis on Moxen to combo turn 1/2, as my notes are pretty clear that the key-card for T1/2 combos is LED considering that we have to squeeze out 6+ mana out of a maximum of 7 cards which is pretty unlikely to do turn 1 (hellbent aside) without the Diamond. Without a Diamond, but a Mox in hand and a Tutor/Wish required, you have 4 cards left to generate 5 more mana which is very unlikely to achieve considering that no card left blocks your hellbent despite the Mox. So, if (according to my own notes) 7/8 of my T1 combos (~17% since taking notes in 2012) are fueled by LED, the hellbent-issue Moxen should adress and is present by running more lands, isn't applying.
Yeah, graveyard hate is still underplayed if I look at the GP Top 16 decklists and Top 8 of the last 2 SCG Opens. I guess we need more reports from storm players to see if the gap of hate between EU and US is as vast TheCouncil, MtgTop8 and other websites imply. The more relevant point is that CR feeds PIF loops much better than AN due to the cmc, which is something to consider if we gauge the +2 colorless against the +3 black.
Vice versa. You sacrifice a lot of potential for games lasting longer than two turns (which are in fact the majority of games you'll play) to support a card, which you often side out games 2 & 3 and has it's strongest applications against a slowly diminishing slice of the metagame, while hoping that a chance for T1 kills of less than 20% can make up for the rest. Atm I can't justify this for myself.
There is (currently) nothing better available to support T1/2 goblin bursts, no doubt. That was however never the question or the topic. ;)
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I'd like to have both options be effective which is why I run Chrome Mox and not SSG.
The problem with this logic is that BG/x decks came to power to fight off TNN with Golgari Charm/Toxic Deluge which aren't seeing any play because those decks aren't. They don't capitalize capitalize on Cruise as much which is why their numbers are much lower. While I agree that ETW is weak after turn three, the game plan has always been to avoid it after then anyway - I don't see why that would be any different now. A UR Delver deck even with turn two Pyromancer shouldn't be able to fend off a goblin ambush, they don't play enough spells in one turn to make this happen.
If you're attempting for turn three Ad Nauseam, it's likely too slow against those UR Delver decks anyway with Delver and Swiftswear.
You're failing to see that Mox provides the extra push the deck needs, Dark Ritual paired with Lion's Eye Diamond is only four mana (There's only four Petals in the deck). We want to be able to cast Ad Nauseam. Rite of Flame, Rite of Flame, Lion's Eye Diamond, won't work when there's a black mana needed for Infernal Tutor on turn one. Mox isn't the enabler, it's a support piece.
An idea I had earlier was -3 Chrome Mox, -1 ETW, -1 Cabal Therapy, +3 Cabal Ritual, +1 Past in Flames, +1 Duress. That said, I don't know how I feel about this.
All these UR Delver and UWR Stoneblades have efficient answers to the current metagame in Pyroclasm and Electrickery which is the current flavor of reaction to the metagame and I expect that part of sideboards to expand now while the defense against Ad Nauseam (at least mainboard) is lacking due to the cut of Wastelands and Spell Pierces.
Against UR you have a point with AN depending on your opponents hand. It can be either a game similar to Burn.dec or like one against Tempo.
A support piece with an diminishing impact after turn 2. It's not that I can't pick an an example of a mulligan-hand like Probe, Petal, RoF, BW, RoF, CoT to hint on the difference two colorless mana can make if you need to squeeze out the maximum mana from a limited number of cards available which is even more important if you have to spend resources to overcome opponing defense.
That deck is called TNT and well-explored territory. Bad AN flips AND graveyard depending, with a less stable manabase than ANT
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How has testing gone with the crystal veins?
I don't like them personally because there are only 9 cards in the deck that use colorless mana in the main. The mana probably helps a lot, post tutor/wish, but I think the loss of initial colors is too great to warrant the change.
I have been testing cutting down to 2 chrome mox and adding an additional land. So far it seems okay but I don't think it makes all that much of a difference. Here is my list for refrence:
4 brainstorm
4 ponder
4 gitaxian probe
4 cabal therapy
3 duress
4 burning wish
3 infernal tutor
1 ad nauseum
1 empty the warrens
4 dark ritual
4 lion's eye diamond
4 rite of flame
4 lotus petal
2 chrome mox
2 underground sea
1 volcanic island
4 gemstone mine
2 city of brass
1 tropical island
1 scalding tarn
1 polluted delta
1 misty rainforest
1 flooded strand
SB
1 tendrils
1 past in flame
1 empty the warrens
1 grapeshot
1 infernal tutor
1 massacre
1 void snare
3 abrupt decay
2 xantid swarm
2 pithing needle
1 chain of vapor
Notes:
-Yes, I play city of brass. Someday I'l pick up mana confluence, but I told myself it wouldn't get them unless I lost a game due to a Port tapping out my CoB. I also don't play the second volcanic. Purely a cost decision. I don't play magic much these days, but I like keeping this deck around for the random legacy events. But yes, they should be something else.
-Yes, I still play grapeshot. The ability to storm20 a guy for being a shitty player to play against outweighs any benefit from the extra SB slot for me. It is irrational, but I love me some storm20.
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While you are right that the most important spells in the deck need the extra colorless mana, without the colored mana to setup into the combo turn it won't matter. That's the only reason why I don't like them. Wasteland and stifle is still a thing where I'm from.
Well, I don't own a second volcanic, nor do I plan on getting one. That is why I didn't mess with the lands all that much. I should probably cut a city for the 5th fetch though regardless. I'll give that a try but the reason for playing fetches is to fix the colors, and if I get hit with a wasteland, I can't really fix my colors with a fetch without playing the 2nd volcanic. So extra fetches doesn't seem to give me a whole lot of benefit. I can see a 5th being better than a city of brass, but I can't see playing 6 fetches without the second volcanic at minimum.
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Yes, and I am okay with that. It isn't really that big of a deal when I'm looking to combo out on turn 1, 2 or 3. I'm sacrificing the late game manipulation because I don't want to even be there in the first place. Maybe I play this deck too aggressively.
But to get back on topic, how often are you finding yourself missing a color of mana while using crystal vein? I would be surprised if you haven't ran into that issue at all yet. TES needs a red and black mana available as soon as possible; it needs the colorless mana afterwards. That's why chrome mox is a great fit even with it's obvious drawbacks. Crystal vein / City of Traitors seems like a better fit for ANT, and I'm surprised I haven't seen it in any ANT lists now that I think about it.
In 2010 Sol Lands were not that uncommon in ANT (which ran several ANs and ToAs during that time), but with the prining of PIF and the shift towards the maximum on shuffle-effects and color-fixing, the +2 mana were less relevant in the face of Cabal Rituals.
I sure ran into the situation in which I had only 1 colored mana, a Vein, but an unfortunate combination of Ritual/Rite/Infernal/Wish in hand, but there is a reason I run 8 fetches and 12 cantrips to fix the problem within a turn or two (possibly changing the setup into a mono-colored). This possible delay however is less of a problem if you don't have planned to race your opponent with an unprotected EtW anyways. I had this in mind as I decided to cut the MB EtW because of the value-drop it suffers because of the lacking, early color-fix and extra mana/stormcount of Moxen.
How was your success-rate against defensive-hands in games 2 & 3 if you sacrifice so much shuffling/fixing/manapower? Just because the deck is able to overpower your opponent T1/2/3 doesn't mean that its generally fine to lose every longer game due to variance and underpowered cards.
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Lem, you know exactly how this runs.
You played the same lands for years.
4x Gemstone Mine
2x City of Brass
2x Underground Sea
1x Volcanic Island
3x Fetch
This was the core of TES for at least three years.
Adding a fetch and a Tropical only adds to consistency in longer games.
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I haven't been able to get a lot of testing in lately unfortunately. Our local scene has died a little bit.
But I feel confident in grindy games 2 and 3. Would I like to have more shuffle effects for these games? Sure. But this deck has to have a black and a red to combo out and I don't want to risk not having access to both because I needed to setup with green for an abrupt decay. (I guess this is why bayou is better than trop).
Has anyone tried Rain of Filth in TES? With my manabase (gemstones), I don't see this as a good option, but for the people that have a more stable manabase, it seems like it could be good vs grindy games. I could see rain of filth taking on the role of crystal veins for the added burst if you just went with more duals, or even basics.
I ran 2 Chrome Mox and 1 Simian Spirit Guide awhile back and didn't have a strong opinion about it one way or the other, the damage and storm weren't very relevant but color fixing and permanent mana sources were an issue off of Diminishing Returns. It might be better if you're not playing with a D7 any more, but I don't think the Pros of drawing Chrome Mox less are worth the draw backs of Simian Spirit Guide as personally I don't mind drawing Chrome Mox until the 2nd copy.
I don't care if its City of Traitors or Cabal Ritual, SB mana sources I think are really under estimated in terms of their utility and I don't think Reanimator is a large enough part of the meta to warrant narrow SB cards like Pithing Needle.
I agree that modular mana is an option if you face decks like tempo or control but have enough victims for your greedy G1 setup like we had end of 2011. These days, the decks you can overwhelm with the Belcher-Mode because they have no countermeasures (reads discard, Counter, Resistors or hatebears) is close to Zero and the whole development over the years (more lands, more Fetches, less colors) are geared towards reacting to that. My personal feeling however is that we cossed the point, where we have to consider the sie, defensive matchups as our standard and not the victims to out Belcher-Mode and react via our MB setup rather than our SB setup.
P.S.: will edit this post without 6 shots and 5 beers. Damnit!
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To followup on a lot of talk about various techs and stuff, I wanted to post this list and see what people think:
Bombs/Win-Cons
4 Burning Wish
3 Infernal Tutor
1 Ad Nauseam
Mana Acceleration
4 Dark Ritual
4 Rite of Flame
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
2 Cabal Ritual
2 Chrome Mox
Cantrips
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
Protection
7 Cabal Therapy/Duress
Land
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Bayou
Sideboard
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Grapeshot/Thoughtseize/Cabal Therapy?
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Past in Flames
1 Void Snare
1 Massacre
2 Chain of Vapor/Pyroblast/Decay+Pyroblast/Decay+Chain
3 Xantid Swarm
3 Abrupt Decay
The primary change here is that 1 EtW and 1 Chrome Mox became Cabal Rituals. Of all the stuff discussed about mana, making Ad Nauseam effective, or having alternative choices to it, this is what I think the most effective config is.
Cabal Rituals vs. Chrome Mox vs. Sol Lands etc.
I ended up with a 2-2 split of Cabal Rituals and Chrome Mox, just looking at the strategy of making the most effective use of Ad Nauseam. It's a lot harder, in my experience, to have a land drop after Ad Nauseam than it is to have some mana floating, and I don't really like the idea of delaying my combo shot just so I can land a sol land drop or build up some extra mana because then I'm vulnerable to discard or extra damage or hatebears etc.
Chrome Mox is just the best card there is at making Ad Nauseams with no land-drop or floating mana successful, at least when I'm already playing 4 Lotus Petal. As much as people might want to eschew it, I've found the Ad Nauseam just isn't as good without it. This isn't Tin Fins where you can stop midstream and readjust your life total to keep going or know for sure how many cards you're digging to, Chrome Mox is what makes the variance acceptable, in my opinion, and dropping it down to 2 is just to decrease the chance of seeing too many of them pre-combo.
Cabal Ritual is added in as a concession to all the high-damage strats and such in the format, it's easier to PiF loop or Tutor chain when you have high power Rituals. Removing EtW means that the 2 CMC isn't that clunky, since it's the highest CMC you'll ever encounter. While this deck isn't the best at Threshold, it's still worthwhile ramp for going off fast.
No EtW
So, this is probably the most contentious choice, considering that replacing stuff with Cabal Rituals was already a thing that happened last summer. However, as much as Cabal Ritual gets sided out a lot, EtW gets sided out a lot as well. Also, the matches where it is sided out, EtW is terrible. Think big creature combo, storm combo, control, etc. In general, I just find that I don't want EtW a lot, except in random hatebear decks or as a win-con when I see an opponent as exposed, in other words, a Wish target. Given that classic RUG Delver isn't really a thing anymore, and Young Pyromancer is a much a source of EtW hate as it is a wincon, I can't really think of a non-hatebear deck where I'm looking for EtW except for maybe having it in my opener. While some may lament the loss of the "6-mana plan", it still exists 4/7 of the time through Burning Wish, and with Cabal Ritual in CM/EtW's stead you can get extra ramp to make that 6-mana happen, or give you the 7th mana to just help make Tutor fetch Ad Nauseam instead the other 3/7ths of the time.
Sideboard/Optional slots
I'm a little unsure on the balance of discard spells and sb slots. With no EtW main, one could consider 4 Duress + 3 Cabal Therapy, the issue I see there is that in matchups like Burn or Elves you have another Duress to side out and Abrupt Decay seems really meh in those scenarios. Moreover, a lot of fast EtW hands tend to involve LED, and discarding Therapy just to flash it back is a cool synergy in creature matchups where you don't need protection but do want to strip a key card.
For the sideboard, idk if Pyroblast is worthwhile. Given the BBD-clones playing stoenblade with just Meddling Mage and Cliques as disruption, Pyroblast could be really good, as would Grapeshot. On the other hand, Chain of Vapor is the tried and true efficient method of handling creatures in non-blue matchups and, as stated, it would be a little clunky to just lean on Decay for that. You could run a couple Decay with/without Grapeshot against the Meddling Mage decks, as well. IDK about Pithing Needle lately, just because I still lose to Counterbalance with it up, and Xantid Swarm is a much higher upside potential.
Grapeshot is serving a role of "clean Storm kill not named Tendrils of Agony". You can use it or ToA in the main to play around Extraction, its flexible, etc. If you choose to main it, it's also cheap enough to not significantly impact Ad Nauseam, fwiw.
I like that, I've been thinking exactly the same -1 EtW - 1 CMox +2 Cabal Ritual. Seems good on paper, please share if you get any feedback from playing. Another option I considered is PiF instead of EtW, with some number of Cabal Rituals in the list.
As for sideboard, I think REB/Pyro is worth at least 1 slot. As for the discard slot, I like playing the 4th Duress. I also like Carpet, but haven't tested it yet. Is it good enough?
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