All B/R update speculation.

[Finn]

I'm not "spinning" anything, if X% of entrants run blue and X% of the top 8/16/etc is blue, what is unfair about blue? Also, we AREN'T talking about Ancestral Recall, we're talking about a t3-5 play that empties your yard in a format where people play 7/7 yawgmoth's bargains and glimpse of nature. I think the DtB can use whatever they damn well please, if people feel like playing a card, go ahead. again, non-blue isnt significantly worse in terms of performance.

Re: your edit: whichever came first among results vs use does not matter if results vs use isn't significantly different. there is no "hard fact" that blue decks can always blow out nonblue decks, thats a blatant exaggeration, which is flatly ironic given how you try to accuse me of spinning data

Why must we belabor simple ideas? I should not have to educate you about these things. - my exact words: "...blue decks can effortlessly blow you out with card advantage while nonblue decks can not..." This is fact. Your own counterexamples are garbage because Glimpse must have an entire deck built around it. It needs creatures in hand. It occasionally fizzles, etc. Griselbrand needs another card or it is dead. And that one play is literally what that entire deck is designed to do. Furthermore, people do complain about that as it pushes the envelope. Treasure Cruise, you just drop into a deck full of the other best blue cards (which you are playing anyway) and play the game. You should know this stuff if you are going to argue about it. Hopefully wotc will recognize these important details. I am confident that they will. So to the same point again...Are you honestly making an argument that Treasure Cruise is a fair card? I asked both of the last two guys the same thing and neither of them gave me a straight answer.

[Tammit67]

And white limited to just a small handful of spells also. This is the bluest/reddest meta in a long time and it's only got the red as a sideshow to blue.

There are 186 colored spells in the 5 lists in the DTB section right now. Using one source's lists I came up with 136 blue spells, 16 white spells, 30 red spells and 4 black spells (4x Griselband in their version of Sneak and Show.) How can anybody defend this meta?

Here's the decision post:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...l=1#post861874

Elves and storm were kinda close to the threshold but christ....

[Tao]

Why do you group blue decks together? Storm and Delver aren't the same deck. Hell, I bet if I wanted to in Elves, I can change the deck so it goes 70-30 against Storm, SneakNShow, and Reanimator. By doing that, i'll probably be 20-80 against Delver or Pyromancer decks. You can't beat every deck in the format. You have to punt matches. That's how magic works. Even UR Delver punts it's storm matchup. Elves punts it's combo matchup. Belcher punts it's matchup against decks that play FoW. You have to pick your poison.

People keep wanting to have their favorite decks to win against everything. Spoiler alert: you can't.

If you use your statistic as an example of how nonblue decks compete against blue decks, you have to include their matchups against all blue decks, obviously.

[FoolofaTook]

They need a format reset for Legacy at this point. If you like the current game with it's endless blue mirrors and the few other lists that can compete that's fine but it's a horrible environment to try to get new players to play in. Among other things the blue shell creates a very expensive entry barrier for newer players and the few lists that can compete with it tend to have extremely expensive and narrow staples that have to be acquired also.

They should ban Brainstorm, Ponder and Treasure Cruise tomorrow. That's the reset that will tell them if it's possible to maintain legacy long-term or if they need to just go into custodian status with it as they have done with Vintage.

[HSCK]

Legacy seems to be doing just fine by the looks of it, the RL is what will drive prices up over time, not what a few users on The Source rage at.

[Ellomdian]

They need a format reset for Legacy at this point.

They did this - it's called Modern. Actually a really fun format - you should go try it, and stop endless complaining about a healthy, growing, diverse format.

[LOLWut]

They need a format reset for Legacy at this point. If you like the current game with it's endless blue mirrors and the few other lists that can compete that's fine but it's a horrible environment to try to get new players to play in. Among other things the blue shell creates a very expensive entry barrier for newer players and the few lists that can compete with it tend to have extremely expensive and narrow staples that have to be acquired also.

They should ban Brainstorm, Ponder and Treasure Cruise tomorrow. That's the reset that will tell them if it's possible to maintain legacy long-term or if they need to just go into custodian status with it as they have done with Vintage.

You're not on the "ban Brainstorm, Force of Will, Ponder, Vengevine, Emrakul, Sensei's Divining Top/Terminus, and Griselbrand" train from a week ago anymore? Aw.

If WotC really wanted to fix Legacy they'd do all of the following:

1. Ban the blue shell.

That means Brainstorm, Force of Will and Ponder. That leaves all the blue power in the format still available but at only slightly more consistency than non-blue shells. Yes, people will put Preordain in for Ponder and Serum Visions as the second cantrip but the overall power of the blue shell will be much lower with no Brainstorm and no Force of Will.

Daze, Spell Pierce and Stifle will still be there to stop combo from going berserk on turn 1 and 2 and there are a few lists that will play all 3 alongside other synergistic assets. You'll have like a 5% turn 0 win rate with a lot of combo lists and that just is what it is. Combo has that 5% turn 0 win against non-blue lists now as it is.

2. Ban Vengevine and unban Survival of the Fittest.

One card breaks SotF right now and makes it grindingly hard to compete with and that's Vengevine. Lots of other things become better with SoTF in play but isn't that a good thing? Birds of Paradise might even see a comeback and that would definitely be a good thing.

3. Ban Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and Griselband.

There are a bunch of really cool things to reanimate and show and tell but the two creatures above are so much better than all of them that the others never see play. Both were mistakes when they were printed and neither is necessary for a healthy meta. They're both extreme overkill for cheating into play in a format where cheating into play isn't exactly hard.

4. Ban either Sensei's Divining Top or Terminus.

Doesn't have to be both, just one or the other. The combo sits on all creature aggro strategies so heavily that it's almost impossible to play creature aggro in Legacy. SDT might be the logical ban because it causes time issues in tournaments.

You do those 4 things and we're back to a healthy varied meta overnight. The number of playable archetypes will probably triple.

[btm10]

Legacy seems to be doing just fine by the looks of it, the RL is what will drive prices up over time, not what a few users on The Source rage at.

This. Also, I think the DTBF is reflecting a short contraction before we see a bunch of more diverse results now that people have had some time to brew in the new meta.

EDIT:

You're not on the "ban Brainstorm, Force of Will, Ponder, Vengevine, Emrakul, Sensei's Divining Top/Terminus, and Griselbrand" train from a week ago anymore? Aw.

He's actually been making that argument since 2009 - on the first page of the thread:

They won't do it but Brainstorm is the most broken card in the format. It's the only way to easily draw 3 cards and keep all of them at little or no cost with no conditionality attached to play. It's the linchpin of big blue - still the most dominant effect in the meta, without which most blue decks would have to rethink their early game plan.

[FoolofaTook]

This. Also, I think the DTBF is reflecting a short contraction before we see a bunch of more diverse results now that people have had some time to brew in the new meta.

EDIT:

He's actually been making that argument since 2009 - on the first page of the thread:

I think events since 2009 have made my point very well. The point of Legacy was that it wasn't going to become dominated by a Power 9. It was the format where you were going to be able to use your power cards from many different eras of Magic without having a dominant shell that encapsulated a few of them and excluded most of the others. WotC as much as said so when they created the format.

Now we have a format in which a significant subset of a tightly knit group of cards is the lynchpin of most successful strategies. We've got that Power 9 format only it's really a Power 2 + 5 or so. (Brainstorm, Force of Will + Ponder, Daze, Gitaxian Probe, Treasure Cruise and Delver of Secrets). The 5 most played cards in Legacy are all blue at this point. 70% of top 8 lists include 2 or more of them.

I don't like being right, nearly 6 years later, but it's the reality that the blue shell has taken over Legacy in much the same way that the Power 9 dominates Vintage. Ancestral Recall and Force of Will are in 75% of all Vintage lists. Time Walk is in 71%. Mental Misstep and Pyroblast are both in 70%+ of all Vintage lists. That's where Legacy is headed with the blue shell at this point, a blue/red format in which everything else is a bit player. It's almost there.

[FoolofaTook]

They did this - it's called Modern. Actually a really fun format - you should go try it, and stop endless complaining about a healthy, growing, diverse format.

Modern is a beyond crappy stale format. I wanted to believe it was going to be good but playing and brewing in it has been anything but satisfying. Outside of Delver it's a slow-motion format with sudden combo finishes all over the place. The ability to look at cards and find what you need is just fine but the counterspells are really poor and mainly suited to supporting said combos and not defending against them. The shocklands are a terrible substitute for real duals that offer major penalties for trying to put together more than a 2 color list unless you're going to combo out in a hurry before the accumulation of damage begins to become important. The ability to attack opposing mana bases is fairly weak and so mid-range combo can often lumber into it's victory condition without any kind of significant opposition.

They could fix the format by reprinting Counterspell and Wasteland in Modern Masters III (or whatever).

Delver, Splinter Twin, Scapeshift and Tron is a terrible meta to play in and Jeskai Ascendancy just makes things worse. An eternal format in which Lightning Bolt is in 50% of all lists is obviously a format in trouble. And of course I forgot Birthing Pod which is maybe the biggest offender in the slow-motion into sudden combo finish department.

[Daize]

I'm wondering where the real thinking is in this thoughts process... I hope people realize that when you look at a (hypothetical) school where 80% is white, you probably end up having the best scoring students in class be primarily white? Put differently, yes - a lot of people are playing blue. Treasure Cruise (and DTT, Swiftspear) really shook up the format, and a lot of people love trying those cards out. This leads to over-representation of those colours, which is not the same as those cards/colours being overbearingly better than others. The cards have only recently been introduced, where there should be some time allowed for play style adjustment.

Therefore, just like a drastic, haphazard policy changes in politics based upon a single dramatic occurrence, is bad policy making based upon pseudo arguments.

[Barook]

I'm wondering where the real thinking is in this thoughts process... I hope people realize that when you look at a (hypothetical) school where 80% is white, you probably end up having the best scoring students in class be primarily white? Put differently, yes - a lot of people are playing blue. Treasure Cruise (and DTT, Swiftspear) really shook up the format, and a lot of people love trying those cards out. This leads to over-representation of those colours, which is not the same as those cards/colours being overbearingly better than others. The cards have only recently been introduced, where there should be some time allowed for play style adjustment.

Therefore, just like a drastic, haphazard policy changes in politics based upon a single dramatic occurrence, is bad policy making based upon pseudo arguments.

Blue/Brainstorm's representation has been steadily creeping up with each stupid new print they made since 2011. So no, this isn't just a short-term occurence, but a long-term trend.

[Quasim0ff]

There are some blurry "leaked" screenshots floating around right now, so take that as a grain of salt as chances are that it could be fake.



But if it's going to turn out true, I predict that the Source is going to go nuclear.

I can promise this is NOT what is happening. There is ZERO chance of Sfm getting unbanned in Modern.

[mikeshimoji]

So why isn't the announcement up yet?

[Meekrab]

The 5 most played cards in Legacy are all blue at this point. 70% of top 8 lists include 2 or more of them.

I don't like being right, nearly 6 years later, but it's the reality that the blue shell has taken over Legacy in much the same way that the Power 9 dominates Vintage. Ancestral Recall and Force of Will are in 75% of all Vintage lists. Time Walk is in 71%. Mental Misstep and Pyroblast are both in 70%+ of all Vintage lists. That's where Legacy is headed with the blue shell at this point, a blue/red format in which everything else is a bit player. It's almost there.

So what? What strategy can't you play because of this? What archtype is the metagame unfairly oppressing? The way it looks to me and a lot of others is that aggro, control, combo, prison, etc. are all present and viable in the current Legacy metagame, so what, exactly, are you upset about? Color diversity is not a stated goal of Eternal magic, try another tack.

The forces driving the format in this direction are not the Ponders and Brainstorms that we've had for the better part of two decades, it's ridiculous card design like TNN and Tarmogoyf that make running a base blue aggro midrange value deck viable. If you want to ban things, ban the dumb things. Brainstorm and Ponder reward decision making skill; TNN gives game wins to anybody who can tap three mana and name their opponent off the pairing board.

[conboy31]

So why isn't the announcement up yet?

I think it is supposed to be up at 8 am PST, which is 9 hours from right now.

[Nuke is Good]

I can promise this is NOT what is happening. There is ZERO chance of Sfm getting unbanned in Modern.

Isn't there a companion article on B&R updates explaining their rationale? The lack of a link to that makes me question it.

Though SFM unbanned in Modern seems like a huge red flag, Jace has a better shot in being unbanned than SFM. I gotta worry about Siege Rhinos with Batterskulls on them now?

[ubernostrum]

All of the screenshots people are posting are pretty obviously faked; anybody can grab the HTML and make their own faked announcement, or just edit their in-browser copy in most modern web browsers.

If you want to know when the real thing will land, hit dailymtg when this counter reaches zero.

[theBloody]

My prediction: legacy - nothing banned, maybe something unbanned (unlikely). Everyone has hopes so high, hah.

[Nielsie]

It's not a matter of rationalization, its now a matter of statistics. if there isn't a statistically significant difference between usage and performance, then there's nothing wrong with the flavors of the month being blue. if you dont want to play blue, there is demonstrable evidence that you can do fine without it. if all the people who wanted cantrips to be banned went out and actually played a non-blue deck, youd see Elves, DnT and the like back in the DtB in no time

I am pretty sure that people playing Elves and DnT are actualy pretty loyal to their decks. This isn't about people just wanting to try out the flavor of the month. This is about spikes wanting to win a tournament and at this moment that is much easier with Brainstorm, FoW, Ponder and a bunch of islands.

I'm not "spinning" anything, if X% of entrants run blue and X% of the top 8/16/etc is blue, what is unfair about blue? Also, we AREN'T talking about Ancestral Recall, we're talking about a t3-5 play that empties your yard in a format where people play 7/7 yawgmoth's bargains and glimpse of nature. I think the DtB can use whatever they damn well please, if people feel like playing a card, go ahead. again, non-blue isnt significantly worse in terms of performance.

Re: your edit: whichever came first among results vs use does not matter if results vs use isn't significantly different. there is no "hard fact" that blue decks can always blow out nonblue decks, thats a blatant exaggeration, which is flatly ironic given how you try to accuse me of spinning data

Isn't this kinda like a self-fullfilling prophecy? When 100% of the field turns up with a Brainstorm deck it's pretty normal that 100% of the top8 will play Brainstorm. Anything wrong with that? How high a percentage does Brainstorm need to reach for your eyes to open?

When you replace 100% with 70% this still doesn't tell you much because you will have to ask that 70% of why they play a Brainstorm deck. Look, if you unban Demonic Tutor you may aswell get the same results: 70% show up with DT and 70% of the top8 plays DT because the other 30% is chock full of white tutor hatebears or whatever else the anti-meta came up with.

You have to asks yourselves: why does 70% show up with a Brainstorm deck? It's not the flavor of the month because that percentage is steadily rising since the beginning of Legacy and has started to explode with the stupid printings of Delver, TNN and now Cruise.