I've done the math for this. In a typical maverick build with 4 dorks, the chance that you have a GSZ in hand, no arbor in hand, AND a forest in hand is about 17.74%. This does not include the probability of having something better to do with your GSZ, so the real probability should be a bit lower. The chance of having it in your opening and ruining your hand is 11.67%. Net is about 6%, but that doesn't account for the risk of drawing it in the mid game. I'm always on the fence about it myself.
I think if you are running Equipment, the upside to fetching End of Turn and equipping for an attack or having an easy way to re-fetch a creature after Terminus beyond GSZ isn't a bad thing.
-Matt
Yes but in many matchups you can fetch and equip. That happens in many matchups.
Come on, drawing arbor in late game is no difference in drawing a regular land. It only sucks in opening hand. I don't care aboht statistics. My feeling says, that arbor is important. There are so many fine edges and tricks to do with her. Even wastelanding arbor and then eat it with DR/Ooze to get one life once safed me a game.
Is the NO really better than a 4th GSZ?
I'd love to see at least 2 Sylvan Libraries and at least 1 Courser of Kruphix (GSZ target) thrown into the mix. My reason for this is that some elements strongly resemble Lejay's Sylvan Plug and it's a pretty powerful engine where both parts are good on their own.
Love the Titania shenanigans with KotR, Safekeeper and Karakas.
If I were to take out Arbor, I wouldn't replace it with a land. It occupies a spell slot for me, so I would draw something better than a regular land in the midgame. But yes, I definitely agree that Arbor is tricky and has a lot more uses than stats would suggest, so take those numbers with a grain of salt.
I take it this is one of those decks that you really need a good feel of your meta and a broad knowledge of the legacy card base to be good. Is that the case? I was thinking to make this my first legacy deck because I want to build something with a lot of interaction and lots of options. I've been playing a proxied Reanimator deck and it's fun but it's pretty linear.
That applies to a lot of decks though. Reanimator, for instance, requires you knowing whether they're holding Stifle, whether you can S&T (do they run Karakas/KotR?), what turn you should try to go off (number of counterspells, discard, etc..), and which dude to nab (understanding board state and counters your opponent might hold.)
You can do well by just trying to jam T1 Grisel's all day I imagine, but a reasonable amount of the time you'll instead need an Elesh, Iona, or other fatty. Sometimes you'll have to play around DRS, Mom + Flyer, or other garbage and have to know your outs.
I'm just saying this to say that while Maverick requires respectable knowledge and understanding on how your deck is supposed to play against theirs and which card choices can shift; that's often the case with sideboards, flex slots, or general play-strategy with decks.
At the end of the day Maverick is a hatebear deck. You need to understand the value of each bear and how it hates a specific part of the metagame. Because of this you must have a reasonable knowledge of the metagame. I expect you could do fine by watching replays and other videos of the format plus live coverage.
♀
In many matchups Maverick is EXTREMELY linear. Thalia + Wasteland works very similar to Daze + Wasteland. The amount of disruption+clock that Maverick can do is actually very very impressive.
The hatebear knowledge or knowing which hate cards to tutor for/lean on is mostly relevant games 2/3. But you'll win a lot of games because you resolved a 4/4 knight on turn 2, that became a 7/7 after you hit them with wastelands for two turns in a row after they missed a land drop. Suddenly you have something bigger than griselbrand turning sideways and they're chump blocking with elesh norn.
This is where the strength of maverick comes from. It applies large threats + heavy mana disruption and uses hatebears instead of dazes to prevent the opponent from catching up. But can just as easily resolve stoneforge mystics and MoMs to play a stalled out long game.
Its not until you face punishing/miracles/fast combo where things get dicey.
Ok cool. Thanks a lot for the responses guys.
I agree with a lot of this. However, the format has become (past 2 years) increasingly frustrating when the technicalities of "what bear/card do I play?" still don't save you. I've lost many games and even matches to elves despite making the best technical lines turns 1, 2, and 3 given decent hands.....only to see them go off regardless. The same frustrations happen with Miracles as I'm usually locking down the board and they have just perfect lines to bail them out (like their 1x Venser or Council's killing off Teeg to allow Top --> Terminus that's been sandbagged at the top of their library for days). I'm really beginning to feel like If I don't land dork, wasteland, thalia in the opening 3 turns, I'm at a disadvantage.
@Jeremy Edwards brew: I really don't like it. I'd much rather pack a traditional list with NO in the side (shameless plug: http://www.mtgstocks.com/decks/82502). If you want Titania and NO in the maindeck, that's certainly viable. But Carpet of Flowers is not a MD card whatsoever. I actually see the argument for wanting to cut Mom + Thalia in favor of combo + "good spells" like decay....I just disagree with how it all comes together.
New Bannings:
Treasure Cruise in Legacy.
Do you think it's better or worse for a deck like Maverick?
I'm definitly putting the Punishing Fire version into the folder, since most of the
Wasteland.decs will return (RUG, BUG). Also Miracles and Jeskai Blade seem to find a better
spot in the upcoming meta, since both can still abuse Dig Through Time.
On the other hand my bet is that faster combo will disappear a little bit, due the 4 Treasure Cruise
will most likely going to be filled up with the Spell Pierce and softcounter slots.
What do you say (+) or (-) for Maverick?
Unfortunately I think with the banning of Treasure Cruise, our deck become worse. I expect BUG and Miracles to make a big comeback. While the former is a great match-up for us the latter is one of our worst match-ups and in a heavy field will be problematic. Also, now that people can't play Treasure Cruise, I expect to see more combo in general. Even though one could argue the Treasure Cruise Meta was better for combo players. People wanted to draw three cards. Now they may just want to show in tell again. Its going to be an interesting few weeks.
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