All B/R update speculation.

[maharis]

Here's another tournament with 3/8 miracles in top 8

http://southfloridamagic.com/legacy-top-8-results/

5 miracles decks in 25 entrants per tournament organizer on reddit.

[Teveshszat]

Hello,

Here's another tournament with 3/8 miracles in top 8

http://southfloridamagic.com/legacy-top-8-results/

You forgot to mention that most of the remaining decks in the top 8 were non Blue decks. So actually there was also Burn, Mud and Junk in the top 8.

As a result there were to Bug lists, 3 Miracles, 1 Burn, 1Mud and 1 Junk which looks like a good diverse Top 8.

[Hrothgar]

Hello,



You forgot to mention that most of the remaining decks in the top 8 were non Blue decks. So actually there was also Burn, Mud and Junk in the top 8.

As a result there were to Bug lists, 3 Miracles, 1 Burn, 1Mud and 1 Junk which looks like a good diverse Top 8.

This is my same opinion.
Various top 8....2 BUG 2nd and 3rd position...Burn 4th...MUD...Junk...
And after all...the same number of deathrite, abrupt, terminus and sensei....

14 Wasteland: ban waste?

[maharis]

I've given up for the time being on you people recognizing the stranglehold Brainstorm + fetch has on the format.

However we have been discussing whether Miracles as a specific deck is too strong at the moment.

The results from Florida are another data point in that direction.

[FoolofaTook]

25 man tourneys are kind of irrelevant to the overall conversation on Brainstorm unless they consistently produce these kind of results. My local Friday night Legacy is 8-24 people and we wind up with something blue or Burn or D&T or Elves on top pretty regularly. Last week it was BUG Control, UWb Blade, Burn and Omnitell 1-4 out of 12. That's the most common spread, 3 blue things and a very consistent non-blue list as the 4th.

The question is what happens when you get competitions that actually go 7+ rounds.

[FoolofaTook]

I've given up for the time being on you people recognizing the stranglehold Brainstorm + fetch has on the format.

However we have been discussing whether Miracles as a specific deck is too strong at the moment.

The results from Florida are another data point in that direction.

Fetches are only part of the problem alongside Brainstorm and possibly Sensei's Divining Top and Ponder. Fetches only have a major effect when they enable replacing bad cards with good cards and that only happens reliably with Brainstorm and to a lesser extent Sensei's Divining Top. Brainstorm is the only card that allows you to replace bad cards in the hand with a fetch.

[Star|Scream]

I think we can all agree that brainstorm is an amazing card and should never be banned.

[Zilla]

I think we can all agree that brainstorm is an amazing card and should never be banned.

/thread

[btm10]

I've given up for the time being on you people recognizing the stranglehold Brainstorm + fetch has on the format.

I think everyone recognizes that Brainstorm is the best thing to be doing, but that some of us aren't bothered by that, and Wizards is clearly also fine with it being the best thing happening.

However we have been discussing whether Miracles as a specific deck is too strong at the moment.

The results from Florida are another data point in that direction.

I think that we really need to confine the discussion to larger events for the time being. 3/8 isn't a huge improvement on its meta share, and without knowing anything else about the players or the event itself it's hard to judge. If the Lille Top 8/16 looks like the Kyoto Top 8/16 and the SCG Top 8/16s look like Kyoto and Cleveland in terms of Miracles representation for several months, then there's likely a problem.

That being said, if something has to be done about Miracles, the obvious target is going to be Top but I think we might be better served if WotC targets one of the other legs of the deck to minimize collateral damage. In my experience, Terminus, Counterbalance, and Entreat are all necessary for Miracles to function, and taking out any one of them will (likely) solve the problem.

I think we can all agree that brainstorm is an amazing card and should never be banned.

I agree with you, but you're just trolling.

[maharis]

I think everyone recognizes that Brainstorm is the best thing to be doing, but that some of us aren't bothered by that, and Wizards is clearly also fine with it being the best thing happening.

*eye twitch*

Agree to disagree. For now.

I think that we really need to confine the discussion to larger events for the time being. 3/8 isn't a huge improvement on its meta share, and without knowing anything else about the players or the event itself it's hard to judge. If the Lille Top 8/16 looks like the Kyoto Top 8/16 and the SCG Top 8/16s look like Kyoto and Cleveland in terms of Miracles representation for several months, then there's likely a problem.

That being said, if something has to be done about Miracles, the obvious target is going to be Top but I think we might be better served if WotC targets one of the other legs of the deck to minimize collateral damage. In my experience, Terminus, Counterbalance, and Entreat are all necessary for Miracles to function, and taking out any one of them will (likely) solve the problem.

3/8 is 37.5% of a top 8, which is much more than its 11% share over the past 2 months (mtgtop8 live tournament data) and it's a sudden spike as people are sort of settling in after the TC ban. It's also 3/8 at small tournaments, 3/8 big tournaments... the point is that people bring it and win at an outsized rate. It's in the same range as UR delver was in terms of total tops.

I will also be disappointed if top is the target. I think Counterbalance is the card that should go. I am fine with a deck being able to Terminus, but it shouldn't also be able to just stop you from rebuilding afterward. Entreat is obnoxious but if everyone is playing blue you can just counter it anyway. (And cards like Envelop get more live vs. Miracles without Countertop).

If Top isn't safe Brainstorm shouldn't be, but people will cry about how long it takes to top. But it's not nearly as bad as you think when people aren't using it every turn to counter a spell then reset and draw the right card.

[Star|Scream]

I feel like the anti-brainstorm crowd have this idealized vision of how the format should look in their heads, and since
real-life Legacy doesn't fit that exact template they want to completely revamp it. Instead of just accepting the format the way it is, they'd rather turn it upside down. Who cares that people really love the format? Screw them, MY opinion is more important.

If you want a micro-managed format, honestly, go play Modern. I know it's a cliche, but really, have you even tried it? When I want to play "fair" magic, I play Modern. The cantrips are terrible and I wind up doing 7-10 damage to myself a game, but the games are fun. Of course it is micro-managed, but that helps reassure me that there's nothing really degenerate to fear. Most colors are well-represented, too. But when I want to play absurdly broken things, I play Legacy.

That's the way the format is, and always should be.

[LOLWut]

the point is that people bring it [Miracles] and win at an outsized rate.

SCG Legacy Results for Major Archetypes (DC - Providence)
January to now

MUD: 38-22-2, (63%)
RG Lands: 69-44-8, (61%)
Food Chain: 18-12-2, (60%)
BUG Delver: 138-97-10, (59%)
Infect: 60-44-2, (58%)
BURG Delver: 21-16, (57%)
UWR Stoneblade: 41-31-6, (57%)
Junk: 14-11, (56%)
Lands: 15-12-2, (56%)
Shardless BUG: 106-84-9, (56%)
Painter: 31-26-2, (54%)
RUG Delver: 99-86-7, (54%)
Grixis Delver: 12-11-3, (52%)
Miracles: 158-153-33, (51%)
DeadguyAle: 11-11-2, (50%)
Dredge: 58-59-2, (50%)
Elves: 95-95-4, (50%)
Grixis Control: 23-23-5, (50%)
Patriot: 64-65-5, (50%)
Storm: 114-116-7, (50%)
Twelvepost: 37-37-5, (50%)
Goblins: 19-20, (49%)
Sneak and Show: 94-97-5, (49%)
Death and Taxes: 123-131-14, (48%)
Maverick: 52-56-5, (48%)
Omnitell: 43-48-3, (47%)
Reanimator: 69-80-5, (46%)
Burn: 43-52-1, (45%)
Jund: 27-33-1, (45%)
Deathblade: 44-55-8, (44%)
UW Stoneblade: 14-18-3, (44%)
U/R Delver: 13-18, (42%)
Merfolk: 21-31-1, (40%)
Esper Stoneblade: 12-19-1, (39%)
Tin Fins: 7-12, (37%)
Nic Fit: 9-22-3, (29%)
Enchantress: 10-27-3, (27%)
High Tide: 7-22, (24%)

AND

First, here are the records in non-mirror matches and match win percentages excluding draws for all archetypes with at least 20 matches against known decks

That win percentage would drop even further, if draws (which Miracles is getting at a much higher rate than pretty much everything else) weren't disregarded in the calculation.

[chris_acheson]

I feel like the anti-brainstorm crowd have this idealized vision of how the format should look in their heads, and since
real-life Legacy doesn't fit that exact template they want to completely revamp it. Instead of just accepting the format the way it is, they'd rather turn it upside down. Who cares that people really love the format? Screw them, MY opinion is more important.

If you want a micro-managed format, honestly, go play Modern. I know it's a cliche, but really, have you even tried it? When I want to play "fair" magic, I play Modern. The cantrips are terrible and I wind up doing 7-10 damage to myself a game, but the games are fun. Of course it is micro-managed, but that helps reassure me that there's nothing really degenerate to fear. Most colors are well-represented, too. But when I want to play absurdly broken things, I play Legacy.

That's the way the format is, and always should be.

I'll see your "go play Modern" and raise you a "go play Vintage". Legacy is supposed to have a semblance of balance.

[Lemnear]

I'll see your "go play Modern" and raise you a "go play Vintage". Legacy is supposed to have a semblance of balance.

Since when? Honestly, people here try to change the grown and existing format into something it obviously never was.

[JDK]

SCG Legacy Results for Major Archetypes (DC - Providence)
January to now
[...]
Miracles: 158-153-33, (51%)
[...]

So every tenth non-mirror game was a draw? Gimme the mirror match stats pls :D

edit: Mirror is 14-14-8, so every 4-5th game

[maharis]

SCG Legacy Results for Major Archetypes (DC - Providence).

1: lol at using this incomplete, self-reported data

2:

it's a sudden spike as people are sort of settling in after the TC ban. ... It's in the same range as UR delver was in terms of total tops.

Since when? Honestly, people here try to change the grown and existing format into something it obviously never was.

Then nothing should be banned. Christ.

I feel like the anti-brainstorm crowd have this idealized vision of how the format should look in their heads, and since
real-life Legacy doesn't fit that exact template they want to completely revamp it. Instead of just accepting the format the way it is, they'd rather turn it upside down. Who cares that people really love the format? Screw them, MY opinion is more important.

If you want a micro-managed format, honestly, go play Modern. I know it's a cliche, but really, have you even tried it? When I want to play "fair" magic, I play Modern. The cantrips are terrible and I wind up doing 7-10 damage to myself a game, but the games are fun. Of course it is micro-managed, but that helps reassure me that there's nothing really degenerate to fear. Most colors are well-represented, too. But when I want to play absurdly broken things, I play Legacy.

That's the way the format is, and always should be.

You are the one making an argument from emotion, not from fact or precedent. "I like this kind of Magic so it should stay."

The problem with Brainstorm is that no consistency engine in the format is nearly as good so every serious deck has to start with 4x Brainstorm 8x blue fetch. The format could still be plenty broken and consistent without it just like it's super broken and consistent despite the bans of Mystical Tutor, Necropotence, Yawgmoth's Bargain, Survival of the Fittest, Ancestral Recall, et al.

There is clearly a level of brokenness that Wizards is (or was, when they gave half a shit about Legacy) comfortable with, and Brainstorm at 75% format penetration is plenty eligible for debate.

You know why I like modern? Because it's brewable. Because there's no "well, guess I'd better start with these 30 cards or totally hate on them because there's no other option to win." That is actually somewhat refreshing.

[btm10]

You are the one making an argument from emotion, not from fact or precedent. "I like this kind of Magic so it should stay."

To be fair, that's a perfectly reasonable argument, and it has plenty of precedent. In essence, it was the rationale given for banning Mystical Tutor (and whether the "gentleman's agreement" was ever actually true is irrelevant as to whether or not it was their stated rationale) and people's enjoyment of the format was the entire reason for restricting Trinisphere in Vintage. These aren't perfect analogies to Brainstorm in Legacy (one is a reason a card should be banned rather than untouched, the other is about Vintage), but they can't be ignored either.

The problem with Brainstorm is that no consistency engine in the format is nearly as good so every serious deck has to start with 4x Brainstorm 8x blue fetch. The format could still be plenty broken and consistent without it just like it's super broken and consistent despite the bans of Mystical Tutor, Necropotence, Yawgmoth's Bargain, Survival of the Fittest, Ancestral Recall, et al.

There is clearly a level of brokenness that Wizards is (or was, when they gave half a shit about Legacy) comfortable with, and Brainstorm at 75% format penetration is plenty eligible for debate.

You know why I like modern? Because it's brewable. Because there's no "well, guess I'd better start with these 30 cards or totally hate on them because there's no other option to win." That is actually somewhat refreshing.

I'll reiterate - WotC is clearly comfortable with the state of affairs re:Brainstorm, so any argument here is just talking in circles. I do think they give a shit about Legacy (and Vintage), but also recognize that the money is in selling Commander sets and cards for Standard/Limited. I'll agree to disagree on the merits of this, because I'd like to stick to the productive discussions that are going on.

3/8 is 37.5% of a top 8, which is much more than its 11% share over the past 2 months (mtgtop8 live tournament data) and it's a sudden spike as people are sort of settling in after the TC ban. It's also 3/8 at small tournaments, 3/8 big tournaments... the point is that people bring it and win at an outsized rate. It's in the same range as UR delver was in terms of total tops.

This is true. I'm not sure that Miracles is quite in UR Delver territory though. While Delver probably wasn't the best Cruise deck, the whole URx "Cruise as aggressively as possible and fill your deck with free and cheap chaff to achieve it" strategy was obviously the best thing going. Cruise wasn't around long enough for the metagame to be truly solved, but what was being done was already degenerate enough. The situation with Miracles is a little sticker. Are people jumping on because it's percieved as the best deck? Did a bunch of people sell out of BUG/Jund during the Cruise era (and if so, how long until they buy back in)? Is Dig Through Time a problem? I suspect that it is, at least in the context of Miracles. Why aren't more people playing the Grixis Pyromancer deck yet? Is it is good against Miracles as the results from Cleveland indicate? From my testing, it probably is, but why don't we see more of it?

In short, the meta couldn't adapt to Cruise because casting Ancestral Recall is too good for Legacy and doing anything else is silly when Ancestral Recall is an option. It's less clear that the meta can't adapt to Miracles.

I will also be disappointed if top is the target. I think Counterbalance is the card that should go. I am fine with a deck being able to Terminus, but it shouldn't also be able to just stop you from rebuilding afterward. Entreat is obnoxious but if everyone is playing blue you can just counter it anyway. (And cards like Envelop get more live vs. Miracles without Countertop).

I think any of CB, Terminus, and Entreat are reasonable targets. My own preferences lean toward hitting Entreat because of how hard it is to play draw-go control in Legacy without CounterTop and the fact that Supreme Verdict might just be too slow, but Entreat is how Miracles pivots from controlling the game to winning it so effectively and effectively turns off racing as an option for the opponent. Sort of like Brainstorm, this discussion is moot because if it's decided that Miracles is a problem, then Top is the card that's going to go.

[twndomn]

You know why I like modern? Because it's brewable. Because there's no "well, guess I'd better start with these 30 cards or totally hate on them because there's no other option to win." That is actually somewhat refreshing.

The "because there's no other option to win" is an incorrect assessment of Legacy as a format, or intentional exaggeration.

The Modern is brew-able claim has yet to be validated, that's your subjective understanding as well.

Miracles was never this popular before the release of TC and Dig. The more people try to abuse Dig, the more Miracles will punish this kind of strategy.

My local LGS has more number of people show up for a Legacy event, with greater diversity than those South Florida events. It's a weekly local LGS that's less than 40 people. I take MTGO Legacy Daily more seriously than data coming out of South Florida.

[btm10]

Miracles was never this popular before the release of TC and Dig. The more people try to abuse Dig, the more Miracles will punish this kind of strategy.

It's interesting that you think that. I can see where you're coming from (and I'm not convinced I'm right) but, as I said above, I like my Miracles matchup when I'm on Grixis Control which is as dedicated a Dig deck as there is. I do think that Dig has improved some of Miracles' weaker matchups like Shardless because (as a mostly former Shardless player) it's much harder to manage the Miracles player through attrition when they can cast Dig and hit two fresh cards.

My local LGS has more number of people show up for a Legacy event, with greater diversity than those South Florida events. It's a weekly local LGS that's less than 40 people. I take MTGO Legacy Daily more seriously than data coming out of South Florida.

Indeed. The MTGO meta is composed of people who buy in to get more practice, so they're more likely to be fairly serious about Legacy and not just borrowing a deck or hanging out at the card shop for the evening.

[Barook]

Miracles was never this popular before the release of TC and Dig. The more people try to abuse Dig, the more Miracles will punish this kind of strategy.

My local LGS has more number of people show up for a Legacy event, with greater diversity than those South Florida events. It's a weekly local LGS that's less than 40 people. I take MTGO Legacy Daily more seriously than data coming out of South Florida.

Except Miracle players now try to pack Dig as well.

Miracles is also popular due to the low number of Wastelands available in the MTGO meta. I'd wait for Tempest Remasted to bring in new supplies of Wastelands and see how the meta adjusts.