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Thread: GP SeaTac

  1. #201
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    This could just as easily go in the thread about SCG getting rid of legacy but...

    I noticed Saturday that on and off, the GP had more viewers than the SCG. This, I thought, was sure fire proof that SCG was wrong about legacy. After some quick research into Twitch's API, I wrote up a little BASH script to fetch the viewership numbers for both streams.

    Quick info on the data below:

    * The times for those vertical lines is based on tweets. As a result, they're not 100% dead on when the round started, but they're within one "tick" of me checking the viewership.
    * I'm missing the SCG top 8 and top 4... not really sure why they wouldn't want to tweet about an important feature match... if anyone has estimates on those times, let me know and I can add them.
    * Blank spaces in the graph are where Twitch's API didn't return a result. This will occur when the stream is down at the time of the poll or when Twitch's API doesn't respond. In one point on the SCG graph, you can see it die, then viewership drops hard for a few minutes. This is probably the stream going down and people taking a while to refresh the page and get counted again.
    * The times are weird because I was lazy. Instead of pinging the API every 5 minutes, I pinged the API and then waited 5 minutes, so the resolution here is something like a check every 310 seconds.

    Graph:



    Quick takeaways:

    * SCG's peak viewership (as measured as I did) was 2,340 viewers higher than the GP's; roughly an 18% difference.
    * Sometime during GP Round 13, which is approximately when the SCG eliminations round began, SCG's numbers dropped precipitously. Though they returned, they were not nearly as strong. Do people not like watching the top 8?
    * SCG peaked in its last Swiss round. The GP peaked during the finals. SCG's peak seems odd. That's like watching week 16 of the NFL but skipping the Super Bowl!
    * More people watched the last round of the GP than watched the elimination rounds of the SCG

    SCG conspiracy theory time:

    SCG's numbers have one thing a little suspicious about them. In the 6 hours preceding their actual broadcast, during which they were showing replays, they averaged 2559 viewers, going below 2000 only for a few minutes. While I understand that some people may leave their computer on the stream or that people on the other side of the world might actually be watching, it seems very strange to me for the live broadcast to peak at 13071 and for the replay, even in the dead of night in their target market, to average 20% of that peak.

    If anyone would like to see or play with the data, I've dropped it on PasteBin here
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You don't get to play the most powerful cards in the format and then bitch when someone finally says no. You also don't get to bitch that it's not fun when someone finally tells you no instead of voyeuristicly watching you masturbate with Cantrips.

  2. #202
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by (nameless one) View Post
    Only the second non blue deck to win a Legacy GP after Death and Taxes. I am happy.
    Goblins also won the very first Legacy GP - surely non-blue decks have won more than 3 Legacy GPs
    Quote Originally Posted by nedleeds View Post
    Dat 1/1 with built in pump. Watch out Griselbrand here comes lizard mid range.
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    Is this a troll or are gobbos really dtb?

  3. #203
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by thecrav View Post
    This could just as easily go in the thread about SCG getting rid of legacy but...

    I noticed Saturday that on and off, the GP had more viewers than the SCG. This, I thought, was sure fire proof that SCG was wrong about legacy. After some quick research into Twitch's API, I wrote up a little BASH script to fetch the viewership numbers for both streams.

    Quick info on the data below:

    * The times for those vertical lines is based on tweets. As a result, they're not 100% dead on when the round started, but they're within one "tick" of me checking the viewership.
    * I'm missing the SCG top 8 and top 4... not really sure why they wouldn't want to tweet about an important feature match... if anyone has estimates on those times, let me know and I can add them.
    * Blank spaces in the graph are where Twitch's API didn't return a result. This will occur when the stream is down at the time of the poll or when Twitch's API doesn't respond. In one point on the SCG graph, you can see it die, then viewership drops hard for a few minutes. This is probably the stream going down and people taking a while to refresh the page and get counted again.
    * The times are weird because I was lazy. Instead of pinging the API every 5 minutes, I pinged the API and then waited 5 minutes, so the resolution here is something like a check every 310 seconds.

    Graph:



    Quick takeaways:

    * SCG's peak viewership (as measured as I did) was 2,340 viewers higher than the GP's; roughly an 18% difference.
    * Sometime during GP Round 13, which is approximately when the SCG eliminations round began, SCG's numbers dropped precipitously. Though they returned, they were not nearly as strong. Do people not like watching the top 8?
    * SCG peaked in its last Swiss round. The GP peaked during the finals. SCG's peak seems odd. That's like watching week 16 of the NFL but skipping the Super Bowl!
    * More people watched the last round of the GP than watched the elimination rounds of the SCG

    SCG conspiracy theory time:

    SCG's numbers have one thing a little suspicious about them. In the 6 hours preceding their actual broadcast, during which they were showing replays, they averaged 2559 viewers, going below 2000 only for a few minutes. While I understand that some people may leave their computer on the stream or that people on the other side of the world might actually be watching, it seems very strange to me for the live broadcast to peak at 13071 and for the replay, even in the dead of night in their target market, to average 20% of that peak.

    If anyone would like to see or play with the data, I've dropped it on PasteBin here
    Beautiful data. I had always been skeptical of claims that SCG Standard viewership numbers were much higher than SCG Legacy viewership, since it's not congruent with attendance, but I had no data to evaluate. Would it be possible for you to find data that either supports or refutes their claims?

  4. #204
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Mediocre (11-4, min cash) finish from me in my first GP.

    I had been tracking GP attendance numbers for a long time, but I never really understood the magnitude of what those numbers were. The place was packed, and in fact, too crowded, despite the commendable efforts of the organizers and judges. I came to the realization that there were many more players that were interested in playing Legacy than can be fit into a convention center, even with every squished in. The real limiting factor to Legacy GP attendance is not the Reserved List, but venue logistics.

  5. #205
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by lordofthepit View Post
    Beautiful data. I had always been skeptical of claims that SCG Standard viewership numbers were much higher than SCG Legacy viewership, since it's not congruent with attendance, but I had no data to evaluate. Would it be possible for you to find data that either supports or refutes their claims?
    I grabbed this data live. If there's someone who's got a log of past events, you could do such an analysis.

    However, I could start grabbing that data. Weekend after next is Standard, followed by Legacy, then Standard again. However, I suspect Legacy viewership will suffer from the fact that it's Thanksgiving weekend. It seems like a lot of the events I care about are on holiday weekends :/
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    You don't get to play the most powerful cards in the format and then bitch when someone finally says no. You also don't get to bitch that it's not fun when someone finally tells you no instead of voyeuristicly watching you masturbate with Cantrips.

  6. #206
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by lordofthepit View Post
    Mediocre (11-4, min cash) finish from me in my first GP.

    I had been tracking GP attendance numbers for a long time, but I never really understood the magnitude of what those numbers were. The place was packed, and in fact, too crowded, despite the commendable efforts of the organizers and judges. I came to the realization that there were many more players that were interested in playing Legacy than can be fit into a convention center, even with every squished in. The real limiting factor to Legacy GP attendance is not the Reserved List, but venue logistics.
    But when there's more than one per hemisphere per year, will those numbers stand? They will, up to a point, but then the financial impact, as well as the "next GP is only 3 months, we can skip this one" effect will both kick in. At minimum they can go up to two or three per year. But it's Wizards.

  7. #207
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by thecrav View Post
    the dead of night
    Is near midday for me. SCG events start around 2300 here. Now my work hours let me do that, but many it would not. Watching a replay at a reasonable hour would make sense to those who live in different time zones.
    It is better to ask and look stupid then keep your mouth shut and remain so.
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    Fuck. Which one of my quotes do I drop for this?
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    Something about how fun it is pulling the wings off flies and microwaving the neighbors cat?

  8. #208

    Re: GP SeaTac

    I don't think you can compare the GP numbers to the scg numbers. For one, the GP is almost an annual event compared to the weekly events scg hosts. The demographic scg/wotc are going for think legacy is just too complex, they want the people from hearthstone that may become interested enough to make a jump, basically the people they have been catering to for years with the neutering of mechanics like counterspells, land destruction, combo, and pushing creatures hard in standard formats. The legacy community may be a vibrant one, but it isn't one that they need, especially since the community is a lot less interested in dumping money into new product.

  9. #209
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    Re: GP SeaTac


  10. #210
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    @thecrav: What are you trying to imply regarding the viewership numbers of SCG Standard events?

  11. #211

    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by UnsungHero View Post
    delver 8
    shardless 4
    miracles 3
    lands 2
    dnt 2
    infect 2
    stoneblade 2
    elves 1
    loam 1
    sneaknshow 1
    burn 1
    ant 1
    merfolk 1
    reanimator 1
    alluren 1

  12. #212
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by thecrav View Post
    The deck tech I really want to see is this one...

    Is this the guy who needed to borrow a coin, from Seans tale?

  13. #213
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by lordofthepit View Post
    The real limiting factor to Legacy GP attendance is not the Reserved List, but venue logistics.
    It's never been about the RL; don't let people who can't afford Legacy trick you into believing so.

  14. #214
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by phonics View Post
    It was pretty funny watching everyone in chat complain about how Jarvis was playing because they had no idea what was going on and just thought he was slow rolling.
    Throughout Day 2 he tapped 2 Rishadan Ports (his only other 2 lands being Maze of Iths) to cast Life From The Loam, and tapped a Verdant Catacombs + Port to do the same thing (though in this instance he was going to win anyway). Not sure how those got by the judges...

  15. #215
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual View Post
    Throughout Day 2 he tapped 2 Rishadan Ports (his only other 2 lands being Maze of Iths) to cast Life From The Loam, and tapped a Verdant Catacombs + Port to do the same thing (though in this instance he was going to win anyway). Not sure how those got by the judges...
    Did he have Riftstone Portal in his graveyard? It can be easy to miss since the yard can get so big.
    Team Info-Ninjas: Catchphrases so secret, I don't even know what they are!

  16. #216
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual View Post
    Throughout Day 2 he tapped 2 Rishadan Ports (his only other 2 lands being Maze of Iths) to cast Life From The Loam, and tapped a Verdant Catacombs + Port to do the same thing (though in this instance he was going to win anyway). Not sure how those got by the judges...
    Riftstone Portal?
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  17. #217
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual View Post
    Throughout Day 2 he tapped 2 Rishadan Ports (his only other 2 lands being Maze of Iths) to cast Life From The Loam, and tapped a Verdant Catacombs + Port to do the same thing (though in this instance he was going to win anyway). Not sure how those got by the judges...
    Riftstone Portal.

    Also it is the RL that's the issue, that is the reason people can't afford to play. Many want to, but are priced out due to cards that can't me reprinted.
    It is better to ask and look stupid then keep your mouth shut and remain so.
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    Do not make fun of lands masters, they've spent many years mastering the punishing fire technique in the secret loam monastery. Do not mistake them with the miracles masters, eternal rivals, they won't like it.
    Quote Originally Posted by DarthVicious View Post
    I hope your afterlife is filled with eternal torment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dice_Box View Post
    Fuck. Which one of my quotes do I drop for this?
    Quote Originally Posted by DarthVicious View Post
    Something about how fun it is pulling the wings off flies and microwaving the neighbors cat?

  18. #218

    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by Jander78 View Post
    Yup, that Riftstone Portal. It was in his yard the whole time and those plays were all legal.
    Cockatrice: Bosque

  19. #219

    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by phonics View Post
    I don't think you can compare the GP numbers to the scg numbers. For one, the GP is almost an annual event compared to the weekly events scg hosts. The demographic scg/wotc are going for think legacy is just too complex, they want the people from hearthstone that may become interested enough to make a jump, basically the people they have been catering to for years with the neutering of mechanics like counterspells, land destruction, combo, and pushing creatures hard in standard formats. The legacy community may be a vibrant one, but it isn't one that they need, especially since the community is a lot less interested in dumping money into new product.
    Sad but this above is true. I actually did the survey for BFZ because apart from being an ok draft set it's pretty poor. I was really surprised that in a review of their product they started asking me about Hearthstone! Already I only play Modern and Legacy and if they are going to alter standard to go after the Hearthstone market then I'll never go back. I mean I do play Hearthstone (it's mindless enough for me to grab a game during my smoke break at work) but it's not, and should not, be seen as a competitor to real Magic. I do worry however that real magic is not what WOTC are into any more.

  20. #220
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    Re: GP SeaTac

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul7926 View Post
    I do worry however that real magic is not what WOTC are into any more.
    I have no idea what "real Magic" is, but Wizards is only interested in selling Standard and to a greater extent Limited. It makes perfect sense from their standpoint, for several reasons:

    1.) It's easier to design for. It is nearly impossible for them to test cards for Legacy, Vintage and even Modern. Simply put, there are too many cards and not enough time (i.e. employee work hours) to really see what new cards will do.

    2.) It means they have to worry a lot less about unsustainable power creep. There is only so strong they can make cards before we slip back to Urza's Block. Not to mention, if they make high power sets? People complain that cards are OP. Make low power sets? People complain that they suck. Not worth entering the harder design space if everyone is just going to bitch anyway. And guess what, the low power sets sell anyway!

    3.) Wizards' concern is always, "sell the latest set." Limited is absolutely the best at this. Standard is second best. There is your support right there. Why support formats that don't/barely sell any product?

    The Reserve List isn't some legally binding agreement. It is simply a good excuse as to why they "can't" reprint cards that they don't want to reprint anyway. I've said it time and time again, when Standard and Limited aren't the cash cows Wizards wants/needs them to be, you'll see a whole new outlook on Modern, Legacy and the Reserve List.
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