This is what usually goes through my head when making mull decisions:
For 7 cards
2 lands (at least 1 has to be a fetch) + Top + any 4 as long as no more than one is a Miracle = keep
3 lands (they don't have to be fetches) + Top and/or Ponder/Brainstorm (Ponder preferred if the other 3 are usable on their own i.e. Snap/Jace/CB/FoW/STP/CJ/other cantrips, Brainstorm preferred if at least one is a Miracle card) + any 3 = keep
4+ lands + Top and/or any cantrip + 0≤x≤3 other cards, Miracles included = most likely keeping
I try not to keep any 7 that doesn't meet that criteria. 4+ lands without a Top or cantrip is just asking for trouble, even if one of them is a CB or FoW or other counterspell.
TBH, I don't feel like our decks mull very well, despite our load of card selection, since we're always playing from behind until we can Terminus or counter a key spell. So to go down cards means less resources to be able to turn the tables.
For 6 cards
2 lands (at least 1 has to be a fetch) + Top and/or cantrip + any 3 = keep
3 lands + any 3 as long as no more than 1 is a Miracle card = keep
For 5 cards
Try not to go to 5, but sometimes it needs to be done.
A perfect 5 is 3 lands, and any two of the following, dupes OK: STP, Brainstorm, Ponder, Top
In the event that you don't get a perfect 5, 2 lands + Top or cantrip is snap keep because your 4 isn't going to get any better.
DISCLAIMER: This is not an exact science.
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
Mm, convincing arguments for sure, thanks for your thoughts everyone. Good to have some discussion going in this thread too!
lol, no shitOriginally Posted by CutthroatCasual
Yup! Mulligans in our decks are rough IMO so being able to judge what's a fringe keepable hand from a snap mull is crucial.
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
How about this one, on draw versus unknown opponent - UWR 4 Ponder version, with 2 mentor (schonegger, cadei).
Keep or Mulligan?
Definitely. I'm still not entirely convinced it's a mull yet, I'm going to try and run this hand through a small gauntlet vs other DtB if I can convince a friend next playtest session.
On another note I went 3-1 at my LGS last night, the first match loss in over a month. The deck is feeling incredibly powerful and streamlined. I was almost set on BUG Delver for GP Prague, but now having second thoughts having played this the last month or so.
Beat a Grixis Delver/Doomsday weird hybrid (Predicted him after DD so he couldn't combo
DnT 2-0
BG 'fuckmiracles.dec' with Bob, Lili, Hymn, Bitterblossom, Decays etc. Would have been crushed without Wear//Tear and Mentor as the win con allowing me to go wide very fast. 2-0
Lost to Reanimator 2-0. I think I kept sketchy hands here, but G1 got crushed by double Daze on the play nabbing my FoW for a T2 Griselbrand. G2 was almost under control until a timely Massacre appeared, just after I Cliqued!
I'm beyond convinced on a MD Wear//Tear and I urge everyone else to try it.
List is almost identical to the one I've posted a couple of times, changes since last time are:
MD
+1 Predict - In love with this card!
+1 Spell Pierce - flex slot currently, it could be anything.
-2 Spell Snare - Wasn't too convinced with these last time.
SB
+1 Wear//Tear
+1 Flusterstorm - 15th card, it could be a 3rd Sugrical as the lands matchup is pretty bad without Jace.
-2 Blood Moon - Minniehajj has convinced me on these.
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Monastery Mentor
4 Ponder
4 Terminus
4 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Counterbalance
4 Brainstorm
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Force of Will
3 Predict
2 Counterspell
1 Wear//Tear
1 Spell Pierce
4 Flooded Strand
4 Polluted Delta
1 Arid Mesa
3 Tundra
2 Volcanic Island
4 Island
1 Plains
SB:
2 Wear//Tear
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Flusterstorm
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Pyroblast
1 Red Elemental Blast
2 Izzet Staticaster
1 Cavern of Souls
I think this is a much, much easier mulligan than the one before, despite being on the draw. No FoW, no SDT...and you can't cast anything. You're completely at the mercy of the top of your deck.
Gone. Disgusting hand =PHow about this one, on draw versus unknown opponent - UWR 4 Ponder version, with 2 mentor (schonegger, cadei).
Keep or Mulligan?
They banned Top, so now I play Grixis Delver.
Very definitely a Mulligan, there's no playable cards AND no cantrips.How about this one, on draw versus unknown opponent - UWR 4 Ponder version, with 2 mentor (schonegger, cadei).
Keep or Mulligan?
Glad my reasoning got to someone! =P. How has the low land count and cavern performed for you? I've considered playing the one maindeck W//T in the past, but I can't justify a card to cut, nor have I really been wanting of that effect in my main deck.
The low land count has been fine so far, even in the face of mana denial strategies. When I first put this together I was sure 19 lands was too greedy, but when it's come to the games it's not been a problem. I think this is because the build requires fewer lands to function at full force. I'm thinking of going down to 3 Islands to make room for a 10th fetch, think it makes sense here. There's no Jace or Entreat to need lands drops after 4 or 5, I tend to win games with about 5 lands in play. This just makes the cantrips and SDT that much more powerful as you have more gas to draw.
The Cavern was MD before, but I found myself needing a third Tundra often, that was too greedy! Though I think the Cavern warrants a SB slot as it's so good in the mirror.
This build is very weak to CotV, a lot more so than everyone elses. It's a pretty big concern and the MD Wear//Tear is a concession to that. Our 'answer' to artifacts and enchantments G1 is usually FoW and Counterspell, but having access to Wear//Tear plays into the Mentor plan nicely as you can use countermagic incredibly aggressively to protect it.
I'm somebody who doesn't play Miracles, but I want to proxy it up to practice against/with it in my playgroup. (Everybody seems to want more practice vs Miracles).
Is this list: http://www.mtgmintcard.com/articles/...-a-new-miracle The best place to start with for a 'stock' list?
I've also been looking around this thread and eyeing the non-mentors lists with 2 Entreats/4 Termius. Would this be a better starting point for a test-against list?
Legends Miracles seems to be the least popular, so I don't think I should bother with that version of the deck.
My initial instinct would probably be to keep, but then I tend to be rather greedy in mulligan decisions. Mostly out of fear of what my 6 might look like.'Keep or mull' article on Channel Fireball. I'd be interested in your thoughts.
http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...iago-saporito/
When evaluating an initial hand take these risks into consideration:
Probability of a 6 card hand containing at least one miracle (assuming 6 miracles in deck): 48%
Probability of a 6 card hand containing at least one crap card (assuming 6 miracles + 2 Jaces): 59%
Probability of a 6 card hand containing at least two crap cards (assuming 6 miracles + 2 Jaces): 18%
As a rule of thumb, think of a potential 6 card hand as a 5½ card hand, which ,in a vacuum, is better than the known 5 card hand. Furthermore the 5 known cards aren't great. This suggest a mulligan as the best option.
More risks to take into account:
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 or 1 lands (assuming 21 lands): 31% [including scry (sample size =7): 22%]
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 blue lands (assuming 18 blue lands/fetches): 10% [including scry: 7%]
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 cantrips (assuming 4top+4BS+2Ponder): 32% [including scry: 26%]
Of course those probabilities can't just be summarized, but ideally they all need to be "avoided". The probability of a hand with 0 or 1 land is pretty scary. Especially combined with the chance to get a cantrip. Remember that hitting a cantrip becomes more likely the fewer lands you have. I may have to revise my mulligan decision process..
Used this calculator:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculato...geometric.aspx
Last edited by ozimek; 03-31-2016 at 09:03 AM.
Exactly how I started playing the deck again :) I became the designated 'miracles player' for our test group and ended up enjoying it quite a lot.
Something like this may be a good place to start as something pretty 'stock'.
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Ponder
4 Terminus
2 Entreat the Angels
4 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Counterbalance
4 Brainstorm
4 Force of will
4 Swords to Plowshares
2 Counterspell
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Arid Mesa
4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Tundra
3 Volcanic Island
4 Island
2 Plains
SBs vary quite a lot, but usually they'll have something like
2 Surgical/RiP
3 REB effects
2 Wear//Tear
0-2 Staticaster
x Canonist, Containment Priest, Meddling Mage
0-2 Blood Moon
0-2 Mentor
Thanks for the list!
So you're telling me I'm walking a dangerous edge here. I could fall over to the dark side (become the guy playing miracles).
I have almost everything in paper, outside of the Tundras which are cheap-ish. :X
EDIT: I can probably fit 3 decks on 1.. I'll probably take this list, one with mentors main, and maybe something else? I guess I can squeeze legends in there?
Last edited by Jaytron; 03-31-2016 at 03:50 PM.
The 22%, 7%, and 26% are the only meaningful numbers.More risks to take into account:
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 or 1 lands (assuming 21 lands): 31% [including scry (sample size =7): 22%]
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 blue lands (assuming 18 blue lands/fetches): 10% [including scry: 7%]
Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 cantrips (assuming 4top+4BS+2Ponder): 32% [including scry: 26%]
Of course those probabilities can't just be summarized, but ideally they all need to be "avoided". The probability of a hand with 0 or 1 land is pretty scary. Especially combined with the chance to get a cantrip. Remember that hitting a cantrip becomes more likely the fewer lands you have. I may have to revise my mulligan decision process..
Used this calculator:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculato...geometric.aspx
The "Probability of a 6 card hand having 0 or 1 lands (assuming 21 lands)" is not the correct question to calculate. Rather, you should calculate the probability of 6 card hand opening having 0 lands. Then, you do 1 minus that probability to get the probability of having 1 or more lands. As in,
[60, 7 (include scry), 21, 0 (in a 6 cards + scry opening, no land was seen)] = about 4%. In other words, 96% you would have 1 or more lands. Does that make sense or am I totally off?
Yeah, but you're on play... if the land is on top you will mulligan again. So you can't include scry.
Someone doesn't like losing to Eldrazi: http://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype...iracles#online
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
That is a most beautiful monstrosity. Obviously this is metagamed for Eldrazi, but would there be major % point losses in other matchups?
With Chalice being more popular than ever, perhaps it's time to revisit Unexpectedly absent. Being an instant, it would render Warping Wail useless, works better if your list runs 3 Snapcasters. Of course, that respond-to-fetchland play is possible again.
I'm getting the same number directly from the calculator. If you put in [60, 21, 7, 1] you can read all the needed results below.
x<1 = no lands
x>= 1 = one or more lands (96%)
etc..
The reason for looking at 0 or 1 lands combined is that both situations are pretty much a downgrade from the example initial hand, barring ideal one-landers.
Stefanogs had a good point regarding the scry.
Putting in [54, 20, 1, 1] we see that the chance to see a land on the scry is 37% if you have a one-land 6'er. By upping the sample size to 2, the chance increases to ~61% in the top two cards (i.e. you scry a non-land to the bottom and draw card number two from the top). Not 100% sure the second calculation is correct, but it should be close enough.
I have to say, it plays nice with Predict. Put a card on top of its owner's library and predict it away...
Indeed! A very dangerous path.
Because of the velocity and digging power of the deck 'small' changes have a much bigger effect on how builds play out than normal, so yes you can definitely put together a few different styles with minimal effort. It's worth the time for your group to test vs Mentor in the MD, in the SB, with Entreat or without etc. These different configurations will definitely require different SBing plans. Learning how to best guess what to expect from the SB is really worth nailing down.
Cute interaction, but having WW spells require two plains, which a lot of predict lists have been leading away from. If you're playing Entreat as well as a couple Predict, then maybe.
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