Yes, no problem. This was the sequence until my T3.Originally Posted by Wiky
Start Hand
- Island
- Scalding Tarn
- Terminus
- Engineered Explosives
- Kozilek's Return
- Predict
- Snapcaster Mage
Opp T1
- Play Tropical into Noble
- Pass
Me T1
- Draw Plains
- Play Island
- Pass Turn
Opp T2
- Fetch into Scrubland
- Play Stoneforge and Fetch for SoFi
- Attack for 1 with Noble
Me T2
- Draw Vendilion Clique
- Play Plains
- Pass Turn
Opp T3
- Play Wasteland
- Activate Stoneforge with Tropical + Scrubland to put SoFi into play
- Tap Noble and Wasteland to equip SoFi on Noble
How many cards in opponent's hand (if they were on the play, then it would be 4 cards?) What lands are on their side of the field? If they tapped out (4 mana) to play their SoFI and equip on Hierarch and not SFM, that can mean a few things. First, the likely scenarios:
- They equipped the Hierarch so they probably have another equipment in hand since now when they untap they are free to leave up SFM instead of being forced to attack with it for value (very likely)
- They anticipate a K-Return and wanted to give the Hierarch +2 to protect against it, meaning they probably don't have any more lands in hand (probably)
- They don't have any (relevant) instant-speed effects such as Brainstorm or Decay (pretty much guaranteed)
So the variables then are:
- They have a FoW in hand for spot/wipe removal
- They're fearing that we may have FoW in our hand for whatever 3 or 4 drop they have in hand which they want to protect and they don't have the FoW for protection
I would wager it's the latter. So based on that, their 4-card hand is probably:
Jace
Surgical Extract
Council's Judgment
Batterskull (and they wouldn't play this because they need to draw cards to find that land (or countermagic protection).
Based on that, I'd Ponder for spot removal or Brainstorm. Because you took out all your FoW, that means you can't stop their one threat that matters: Jace (by the time you find your Blast they will likely have found their CS or FoW); and you can't protect the one spell that actually counts: Terminus.
I wouldn't have Predicted EoT because that's telegraphing "bait spell" given that you don't know the top card of your deck so you're most likely only drawing 1 card, and the opponent would be fine with that.
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
I can answer this a little bit.
So, 3 CB is a choice you'll see in a few places, and it happens when metagames aren't very conducive to Counterbalance and stack based interaction as a whole, and that happens with BUG decks are more commonplace, like they are today. Think of it this way, Miracles was never a CounterTop deck first and foremost. It was always a deck that abused the interactions with top of library manipulation, and CounterTop slotted in neatly in its place. You don't need CounterTop to win, and many decks are either responding to Counterbalance in some way, or otherwise incidentally making it not very good. Since in legacy today, we're primarily playing for the board, Counterbalance doesn't amount to much in that regard since everyone is adjusting to it. You'll see Abrupt Decay everywhere, you'll see main deck Boseiju in lands, etc etc. so the small subset of matchups where Counterbalances power is most pronounced are in an overall wane. "Combo" is nowhere to be seen, and the combo that DOES exist is either a) too fast for the 4th counterbalance to matter (RB Rean) or b) adjust to the existence of Counterbalance (storm players starting to play MD decay, for instance) or c)Don't care about the existence of Counterbalance anyway (Sneak and Show). This doesn't mean that counterbalance is BAD my any means, just that it's no longer a slam dunk and that it's possible to shave on 1 in order to facilitate more cards that are better in the metagame as a whole. So, with this, counterbalance is only a slam dunk vs RB Rean as an endgame mechanism, storm, or the mirror, as the other matchups where it was normally good just aren't that prevalent at this time.
In this instance, Predict was the replacement that Angelo chose specifically, and you'll see AnziD's 4 Predict list also playing only 3 Counterbalance, MTGO grinder MzFroste is also on 3 CB at this time because they value grindier cards in a more grindy metagame.
All this being said, it's possible that we'll see a small surge in combo once more and then it might be correct to return to 4 CB, but, for the time being, playing 3 to facilitate more grindy cards MIGHT be okay.
Predict eot on opponent library, cause we have to dig immediately to find an answer to sofi.Could it be a Swords ,or W/t but we need it immediately.we are supposing our opponent playing some sort of counters, it's important to not give it time to find one .So if we draw ponder for predict plus another card we have to play it and search. IMHO.
(it's true that predict makes card vantage ,but if we need an answer is more important that we are alive that the number of cards in our hand)
I would use predict targeting myself, naming something with 4 copies. If you reveal something like stp with predict, you may snap it.
Moreover, maybe i would side out predict against this deck.. It's just too slow
I think you have to give predict some more consideration. It looks clunky here but that's because kozilek's return and vendilion clique are both super slow, not predict.
Instead of paying 3 mana for either of them you pay 2 for predict and 1 for blast/brainstorm/plow. Unless you lower the curve overall I agree, predict becomes worse.
The game ended with me playing Ponder and not finding an answer before taking two hits of SoFi..
Opponent had EOT Batterskull on T4, Abrupt Decay for my chump block on T5.
In the end I needed 1 more life to stabilize the game.
Thank you all for your opinions. Seems like Predict should have been used between T2 and T3.
Nice way to improve us all!
About the list Cadei played this weekend, what really surprises me is not the 3 Counterbalance but the 3 non-blue lands with total 20 lands.
We are moving from a previous 4ponder standard 21 lands with 9 blue count to 20 lands with 8 blue count.
Speaking to Angelo about this, he doesn't want to target himself, even though it'll turn on snapcaster mage, because it creates a bad scenario if opponent has anything that they can use to interact with us, like Force/Daze/Pierce/Fluster. Now, the only things on the radar are Force and Daze. Because of this, the snapcaster mage isn't actually going to be very good because we want whatever our answer will be, to resolve.
We have to evaluate the threat of what our opponent getting to untap actually means in this scenario, and hitting us once with a sword also means. The probability of us hitting an answer that we need without being bottlenecked on mana is 10 cards, 4 Brainstorm 4 StP 2 W//T. However, if you predict ourselves and mill a card, you have a chance of hitting one of the above cards but then playing into the opponent having one of these soft counterspells, namely daze, if our objective is to utilize snapcaster mage somehow.
This being said, the safest option is to bank on the fact that we cannot afford for the following two things to happen: 1) Milling over one of our answers, forcing mana inefficiency, or 2) milling over one of our small tools that we have to win the game, such as mentor eta or JTMS. The latter is, in fact, a bit of a low probability to the point where it can be considered a fallacy, but 1) is definitely a valid concern. So the reason for predicting ourselves is solely this: putting a card into the graveyard for a turn in the future where snapcaster mage gets value. If you weight the pros and the cons and the cost of milling one of our possible answers over, I think I would blind predict a four of from the opponent. Our snapcaster will get value naturally as the game progresses anyway, and I want to maximize our chances for hitting one of our outs, which is roughly 20% without any other manipulation.
EDIT: Surgical Extraction is also another consideration you'd have to make in evaluating all of these, as well as Vendilion Clique, meaning the slower, more value oriented lines could be even further punished as we now have 6-8 levels of interaction we need to worry about if we either predict ourselves or wait to get value out of our Predict.
Ran into this situation at a recent event. Any thoughts would be welcome. :) :
Running a list similar to Joe Lossett's:
Game 1, on the play against an unknown deck. Mull to 6, opponent keeps 7. Keeping hand with:
Scalding Tarn
Flooded Strand
Counterbalance
Brainstorm
Force of Will
Terminus
Scry reveals Entreat the Angels. Put on bottom.
As game begins, opponent reveals two Chancellor of the Annex.
My T1: Play Scalding Tarn. Pass.
Opponent's T1: Unmask target me, pitching Entomb.
What's my best line of play?
Fow pitch cb to get rid of the triggers then fetch tundra and brainstorm to put terminus 2 down and float your best card on top. Depending on which lands and cards you find the next turn can play out differently.
Thanks a lot for the informative reply, so ultimately it is a metagame call to his decision.
On a side note, how would you board against DnT using his list. -3 counterbalance for 2 wear/tear + 1 K. Return?
Given the list he last posted, yes. But he's testing out a lot of different stuff atm, so don't consider the last list he posted as what he is currently testing, just remember!
It's so nice being right
It's a really bad situation but I would have FoW'd pitching CB (so it gets Miscalculation'd) then fetch Tundra, casted Brainstorm to hide the Terminus (and whatever else you may draw with the BS), and then let your opponent have at it.
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
I think it is important to examine all the plays in a scenario. Something that I like to mention on stream regularly is how often people play the wrong land on T1. In JBMage's situation, there is reasonable debate on what should happen on T2 and T3. Nobody has mentioned that there was a massive error on T1. There are three land in our hand, and arguments could be made for playing either Plains or Scalding Tarn. I believe playing the Island is horrendous.
Figuring out how to deal with complicated positions is important, but most people don't realize how much the little things matter.
I completely agree with you, He had to start with plains. Luckly He didn't topdeck terminus t2.
I was gunna ask why start with Plains but then I remembered this was a SB game and he took out CB and FoW which means there's no need for UU on turn 2 anymore. In that respect, I would have opened with Tarn.
The purpose of any moat is to impede attack. Some are filled with water, some with thistles. Some are filled with things best left unseen.
I agree with this. Island is the worst land.
Possible top deck terminus is very important.
Thank you!
With scalding you miss a shuffle effect in case of drawing terminus, and you will go under wasteland. Far better start with plains. Reasonable against an unknowing deck putting scalding in play and pass.
Are we not paying for FOW in this situation?
I don't think so. Oppnent has to have a second entomb for a griselbrand (or have looting into grisel etc) for us to get punished for this. I think it's much more important to resolve the terminus, and making sure we do that, is putting it two down, in case opponent reanimates a Chancellor.
He has 4 unknown cards, which is a lot, but if we think one of them is land/petal, one or two of them is a reanimate spell, that leaves 1 or 2 cards to be either a second entomb (pitch the first) or a faithless looting.
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