I'm a bit perplexed by it also. The deck seems that it would not be too good, yet it has had a great performance in the past month. Even though it gets little respect in the NoVa meta and in Cuse (where it did at least T8 a large tourney), it has continually put up great results in Mass.Originally Posted by Illissius
So, why has this deck taken off? Why is it putting up great results? Please, be as objective as possible here since I know that quite a few of you don't like the deck.
People who aren't prepared for 12/12 tramplers that can come out as early as turn 2 generally don't live very long to figure out how to deal with them. As for the rest of the deck, it's a blue aggro-control shell. That's the best strategy in this format historically.
This is my line of thought which leads me to be puzzled about the deck:
- Is Standstill/Factory good in Threshold? If yes, why aren't people playing it?
- Is Standstill/Factory good in Dreadnought.dec? If not, why is it T8ing so much?
- If Standstill/Factory is bad in Threshold and good in Dreadnought.dec, then why? What's the fundamental difference between the decks which causes it to be bad in one and good in the other? As kirdape3 says, they both use blue aggro control shells (cantrips, Countertop, free countermagic).
SummenSaugen: well, I use Chaos Orb, Animate Artifact, and Dance of Many to make the table we're playing on my chaos orb token
SummenSaugen: then I flip it over and crush my opponent
Cuse and NoVa seem to be the places where Threshold has completely solidified it's spot as Top Deck in the metagame.
It seems like Dreadstill is set up to:
A) Beat some decks that Threshold also beats, namely combo (Force, Daze, Stifle, racing with a 12/12).
B) Beat some decks that are trying to beat Threshold, namely aggro (decks like Goblins and potentially DStompy are going to have a hard time dealing with a 12/12 that's backed up by Force, decks like Ichorid, it can try and race against).
C) Lose to decks like Landstill (Wrath, Swords, Humility, EE, Force, Counterspell, etc) and Threshold (Seize, Force, Swords, Grip from the board, the occasional double 6/7 Goyf to block and kill Nought), and possible other aggro-control/control decks.
It seems like it's place in the metagame is very similar to Threshold, but in metagames where Threshold is solidified as the top deck, it will have less breathing room. Even though I think it's match against Threshold isn't very good, I think it's match against Landstill is worse, and if we see a shift towards more control decks in the metagame (which won't happen until they "Solve the Ichorid problem") then I think we'll see all the weakness of Dreadstill come to the forefront (obviously every deck has weaknesses).
I dont' have a whole lot to say on the subject because there is literally no Dreadstill in the Northwest, but I can give a few thoughts, at least.
The main argument that I've seen against Dreadstill is that, well, it runs Dreadnaught, which is a creature that seems a little shaky for the hoops it makes you jump through in order to get it on the table. I believe it was Nightmare who said that the deck was running some of the best tempo cards in the game (namely Stifle, and to a lesser extent, Trickbind), but instead of using them to gain tempo, you're using them to try and get a big dude on the table.
The main arguments for the deck, that I can see, are that it runs Dreadnaught. A 12/12 trampler is just a beast if you can get it to work and your opponent doesn't have a way to deal with it. Being able to end the game in 2 turns is nothing to sneeze at. It seems to me, though, with 100+ percent of sideboards running Grip and everything, that Dreadstill is a sort of Glass Cannon. Once the metagames where it's present shift in order to handle a 12/12 artifact(this is important) creature, I think it will see a decline in overall success.
But who knows? It managed to make it into the DTB forum, and if it manages to pull its weight and keep up the wins, it could be a force to contend with, as perplexing as that may be for some.
Team Info-Ninjas: Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy.
My Videos: Chiron Beta Prime, Flickr, Re: Your Brains
I know we usually don't reply to specific people in these threads, but I would like to mention that basically, no one plays Thresh in Syracuse. There is far too much hate for the deck for it to successfully run through our local metagame. Between the Survival, Landstill, Ichorid, Dragon Stompy, and Black Aggro/control matchups, it can't hope to go 3-1 through a local.
Pinder accurately quoted me, and my sentiments on the deck. It runs a giant threat that you must invest at least two cards in, that dies to both the most prevalent creature removal in the format, AND the most prevalent Art/Ench removal. In addition, it gets owned by both EE and Deed, and often doesn't end the game by itself. In the rare occasion I've had to lose games to this deck, it was almost always due to Factory rather than Naught, which begs the question why bother in the first place? Wouldn't running Stifle-fueled Landstill be almost strictly better? Wouldn't running a 2 mana, 1 card 5/6 be better than a 2-3 mana, 2 card 12/12? What if that extra card is a Stifle? Wouldn't you rather counter a Fetchland with it?
Fair enough. I suppose the metagame shifts quite a bit, and it's somewhat difficult to keep up with a metagame you're not a part of just by tournament reports. I suppose my statement could be corrected to say "Threshold was previously the best deck in Syracuse, as you'll still see a lot of hate for it in that metagame."
From what I've seen, they usually run both.Wouldn't running a 2 mana, 1 card 5/6 be better than a 2-3 mana, 2 card 12/12?
Well, after big-jobbing some Cuse players with a traditional DreadStill build, I have a few theories about DreadStill.
First, I think that the most important reason the deck wins - which has been already mentioned - is its blue control/draw shell. FoW, CounterTop, Daze, BStorm, and Standstill make up many typical blue shells. In fact, when I play the deck, I feel like I'm playing a Thresh variant!
Second, turn 2 Dreadnought is still pretty stupid even if we have StP and a 100 other good cards to answer him. And, let's not forget, if the opponent has a non-Grip answer, then the DreadStill player may have the counter to let the Nought go all the way.
Third, the deck has alternate win-cons. I've seen it win with Factory and/or Trinket beats. (As a tangent, I think that its alt win-cons are rather weak. This is the area to improve the deck, IMO. Which makes me wonder why the Green splash for Goyfs is not more popular).
Fourth, it's mana base ain't too shabby. Being mostly blue allows the deck to avoid duals and any of the Waste/PoP nonsense that comes with them. I'll concede that this is a minot point.
Ultimately, I'm curious to see if it reamains in the spot-light or if it's going to follow the path of DragonStompy.
If you take a really good deck and switch around some of the better cards for worse cards, you're often left with a deck that's still really good. This unfortunately leads people to conclude, often, that the deck isn't strictly worse than another deck with most of the same cards.
I hate the titular kill condition. It's clunky and vulnerable as Hell. When you have so few slots devoted to killing, you should make them less vulnerable, or at least less situational.
You know what color has good win conditions? Green. Mongoose and Tarmogoyf, or in the slower, more controlling avenue, Eternal Witness and Gigapede.
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
So I don't think anyone can deny at this point that Dreadstill is a good deck. It's probably in something like the top 5-ish decks in the format in terms of the results it keeps putting up.
The question to me is still why. I still don't fucking get it. It must be because I'm bad at Magic.
@ Nihil: I recall you saying somewhere that you were going to post a lengthy reply to the thread explaining this, but for some reason didn't. I'd be really interested in that.
(Pet theory at the moment: must be color requirements. In other words, Factory/Standstill is really good in Threshold-style decks -- but it's not quite as good as Wasteland. And Threshold can't run both, because then it doesn't have enough colored mana to cast spells with. But Dreadstill can run both, because the core of the deck doesn't need more than a single blue mana to work effectively (and thanks to the existence of lands which can produce both blue mana and mana of other colors, it can even get away with a light splash or two).)
SummenSaugen: well, I use Chaos Orb, Animate Artifact, and Dance of Many to make the table we're playing on my chaos orb token
SummenSaugen: then I flip it over and crush my opponent
It also cannot be denied that 12/12s are f*cking awesome in a world of Tarmogoyfs, 'cause it's truly the only creature this side of Aggro Loam that can completely dominate the board against opposing Goyfs. Also, since it kills in two turns, it can usually race Goyf even after taking two hits, and force a chump, effectively allowing it to "answer" Goyf even two turns after Goyf came down. That, I'd be willing to bet, is a huge advantage in a world of Goyfs.
The fact that Dreadstill has this "answer" to Goyf that also happens to allow it to race practically any deck and only dies to non-damage based removal (that is, nothing red), while being able to play the blue control plan is probably the key to its success. It has some of the best early game in the format while maintaining a sexcellent midgame. And it doesn't give an opponent a lot of time to respond to the main threat, while having a nice blue suite of protection and the option of playing mana denial with fast kill against decks with weak manabases (the key to beating dedicated multicolour control).
Yes, Dreadnought requires two cards, but so does Painter's Stone and I don't see that stopping anyone. Dreadnought costs four mana less to win the game with, and that has to count for something. Also, the second part of the combo - Stifle - is much more useful in a control shell outside the combo than Painter.
I get why Dreadnought itself is good. What I don't get, since the beginning of this thread and even before, is why:
Dreadnought.dec With Standstill > Dreadnought.dec Without Standstill
while at the same time
Other Threshold-Like Decks With Standstill < Other Threshold-Like Decks Without Standstill
IOW, why do Dreadnought and Standstill belong in the same deck when they have no special apparent synergy? And why does combining these two seemingly random elements into one deck suddenly result in one of the best decks in the format? And if it's because simply 'splashing' for Standstills is +EV, then why haven't other decks in a similar blue aggro-control mold also added Standstills and put up similar results? What does Dreadnought.dec have which makes it worth using Standstills in it, which other similar decks don't have? This is what confuses me to no end. It makes no logical sense. (See also: current pet theory.)
SummenSaugen: well, I use Chaos Orb, Animate Artifact, and Dance of Many to make the table we're playing on my chaos orb token
SummenSaugen: then I flip it over and crush my opponent
I'll grant that Standstill looks awkward, but I know from my ample experiences with Vorosh that you just throw the thing out there and someone is always going to break it. And U1 -> 3 cards is the most efficient, least conditionally card drawing in the format, provided the deck can accommodate it (Factory).
Mishra's Factory is a good card and blue control shells have always been excellent in every format since the dawn of the game (barring some block and standard formats). If DreadStill's sole win condition was its namesake, I would agree that its strategy is too narrow to consistently win, but that isn't the case.
@ Illissius - Could be certain a priori assumption on the part of Legacy deck-builders that Standstill is bad and only works in narrow board-grinding blue-based control decks (e.g. Landstill). (I've used it to good effect in U/W Vial Weenie to refill my hand.)
Whenever I play Dreadstill, it's almost entirely as a blue control deck. I almost want to just cut the Noughts entirely, they're mainly there to freak out the opponent every so often. Like decklists that include 1 Daze, just in case you can use it game 1 and they spend all of games 2 and 3 playing around it.
I don't get the connection between Standstill + Mishra's Factory, i.e., trying to drag the game out, and Stifle + Daze, i.e., relying on early game tempo. I don't understand how players can rely on Stifling a fetchland for early game tempo, then Stifling a Dreadnought's CiP, and then having another Stifle for a Deed or EE and apparently this works. I don't understand how the deck survive with everyone playing Krosan Grip.
It really looks like someone took slices of several different successful blue decks with no synergy with one another, and shuffled them together, and they happen to only draw one deck a game. The opponent never knows which deck it is, apparently, which seems to be a cause of some of the confusion and thus game losses.
I guess if Dreadstill's success is attributable to anything, it's the Philosophy of Water; the deck is fluid and shifting, and very difficult to pin down into a simple role. Counterbalance-Top, with Standstills and Factories, can allow for a very strong control game, and Dreadnought-Stifle, although clunky, can allow for a very fast aggressive game with Daze and Force back up.
Part of the problem should be that the deck should draw into the wrong pieces at the wrong time in certain matchups, particularly ones where one of those gameplans is weak. Another should be drawing mixed hands that don't allow either gameplan to function.
I wonder how much of the deck's success is a result of a lack of pile shuffling on the part of opponents. I don't mean to imply any deliberate manipulation, but some decks fall into a natural weave of related spells from play, and riffle shuffling often does little to fix this, especially if it's not thorough. Decks that are pile shuffled tend to see more truly random hands. This is why a lot of people complain about the MWS shuffler, for instance, because a lot of people who never pile shuffle in real life don't realize that sometimes you should get hands that are six lands and an Aether Vial, or one land and zero cantrips. Dreadstill seems like a prime candidate for a deck that would benefit from a lack of pile shuffling, as so many cards depend on another specific card and on a liberal distributing of cantrips to keep it flowing smoothly.
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
Followup, to clarify: my hypothesis is that the deck is basically NLU for Legacy, except that every so often when the opponent that great anti-blue-control hand with Therapies and Survivals and threats...they wind up on the business end of a 12/12 way too early.
If you try too hard in answering the Nought part of the deck, you get crushed by the blue control part, and vice-versa. That's my guess as to what's going on.
Heh. I was just going to post that I have it all figured out, Dreadstill == Next Level Blue... and then I see that I have been savagely beaten. Of course, I read Matt's post the first time it was posted a month ago, but apparently it didn't/doesn't use the same reasoning which made the whole thing 'click' for me, so I forgot about it. Probably many of you have been thinking a lot of same things I'm about to write, only haven't been able to explain them to me in a way to make me understand.
Anyways.
New theory: Dreadstill == Next Level Blue
See old Tom LaPille article about NLB. The entire first half of the article is worth reading, but here's the money quote:
This sounds a lot like how Dreadstill could make sense -- basically the exact same thing, except with Dreadnought playing the role of Shackles. (Plus the added element of mana denial). Half of decks lose to Dreadnought, another half lose to Counterbalance, and the next half* Dreadstill loses to (unless they get their mana denied). There's also the bunch of incidental, smaller parallels -- seemingly out of place card disadvantage in a control deck (Chrome Mox/Dreadnought+Stifle)? Check. Draw three cards (Thirst/Standstill)? Check. Trinket Mage? Check. Counter target spell unless its controller paysWhen you are sitting behind this deck, you can divide the rest of the format into four general categories of increasing threat level. This will guide how you play. Those categories are:
1. Decks that don’t play cards that cost more than three
2. Decks that play cards that cost more than three but that Shackles will beat
3. Decks that neither Counterbalance nor Shackles is good against
4. Decks that you have no chance of winning a fair fight against(Force Spike/Daze)? Check.
So this would explain why Dreadstill is a good deck: for the same reason Next Level Blue was a good deck.
My actual question, though, was why Factory/Standstill is good in Dreadstill but not in other Threshold-style decks. The obvious-in-hindsight answer to this question is that the assumption is wrong: Dreadstill is not a Threshold-style deck (rather Next Level Blue), and Standstill is good because control decks like to draw cards.
* liberal interpretation of half
P.S. New question: Is Counterbalance as integral to Dreadstill's strategy as this theory suggests? If so, why doesn't it play four?
SummenSaugen: well, I use Chaos Orb, Animate Artifact, and Dance of Many to make the table we're playing on my chaos orb token
SummenSaugen: then I flip it over and crush my opponent
Because people hate winning games of Magic.P.S. New question: Is Counterbalance as integral to Dreadstill's strategy as this theory suggests? If so, why doesn't it play four?
When in doubt, mumble.
When in trouble, delegate.
Legacy players generally haven't quite grasped the idea that if a card is dead in multiples but absolutely important to your gameplan, you should probably just suck it up and play the four of.
For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
And found I was for endurance made
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Reply With Quote