Scouting: As the "Chalice example" shows, scouting can be really relevant. Not just because it lets you know whether to throw out a Therapy versus a Ponder, for instance, but because it lets you know when you can go off. When I Probe turn 1 and see the Chalice, not only do I know I have to remove the Chalice if I can't go off but I also know I can now go off right now if I want to. Also, knowing if Wasteland exists so you can lead with Trop/Gemstone instead of U. Sea is relevant, even if Chalice is 1% of the meta, you're being ignorant if you throwout the whole lesson based on the example. Wasteland and Force of Will are far more relevant in the meta, and Probe scouts those just fine too, hope thats sufficient for you.
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First, we need to make clear that we are only talking about game 1 in general as the whole "disguise" topic only matters there. On the draw you can tell a lot of opposing decks based on their opening play without a Probe and unless I have a turn 1 combo or a Therapy as well, auto-casting Probe is questionable. Take an example of you having Gemstone and Misty, Brainstorm and a probe in your hand against an opener of Topical -> Delver. Wouldn't you want to cast the probe turn 2 to see if that obvious RUG Delver opponent holds/has drawn a stifle for your fetch or reveal that he maybe shouldn't follow up with tarmogoyf and tap out vs. Storm?
Complete Information: Yes, cards in hand change over the course of the game so your look at the opponents hand is a fleeting advantage. However, knowing what you're going to be holding is prime info for you too. If you ever tried Belcher or some other such deck, you've seen those awkward hands with 2+ Probes/Street Wraiths and have had to make that choice whether your hand will actually get there. Sandbagging a Probe is a smaller version of that issue.
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In a Format in which basically each deck starts with "4 Brainstorm, 4 Ponder, 6 Fetchlands" I don't value the early information if my opponents hand too high unless I can combo the same turn or the turn after. For my taste there is a bit too much emphasis in this discussion of hitting a miraculous LED or so with a blind draw off probe "which completely alters your gameplan". Just saying
Let's say you open U. Sea, Gemstone Mine, Probe, Ponder, Rite of Flame, LED, Lotus Petal. If you Ponder initially, without Probe, you don't know whether you need Protection + Business or just Business, if the very top card is Tutor/Wish and you didn't Probe you not only missed out on 12 Goblins but also on the knowledge that such a plan would or wouldn't work etc. If we replace Ponder with Brainstorm here, the example becomes even more obvious: acting without as much knowledge as possible about both players hands makes it harder to find the fastest most intrusive path to victory.
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come on. These hands are exactly the examples we don't have to discuss. There are 6 mana turn 1 and all you need to hit is an 8-outer and if you draw a manasource like LED, RoF or DR you can gamble once more on hitting a 10-outer (this time with EtW and AN in addition) with Ponder if you sac LED in response
Now, as mentioned, multiple Probes obfuscates things, lets look at this hand instead: Probe, Probe, Dark Ritual, Misty Rainforest, Brainstorm, Burning Wish, Lotus Petal. Here, we don't throw all out Probes at the opponent, just the one. This is because Probe not only improves Ponder and Brainstorm, but it makes the other Probes better as well. If I see FoW, 2-3 lands and other counter-ish cards, I know I'm in for a longer games and I know to save the second Probe for a later turn when I hope to go off. If I see Thalia or something, though, I know I have to get my shit together and the latest I'd wait to Probe is next turn after they've made their first land drop.
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I have to ask here: would you play the Brainstorm here off the land misty rainforests digs up or would you sacrifice a Petal to do so with a hand which is already not that strong? I don't think you want to cast that brainstorm before your turn 2 unless you are a gambling man and want to push turn 1, hoping to find at least 3 mana via Probes and Brainstorm (color issues aside) and if you want to save the Brainstorm here for another turn as your only possible turn 1 play you can count on, I don't see it a mistake to simply drop the Misty and pass the turn on the play.
Now, there are some counterarguments to this and I'm going to address them too, because that's how reasonable discourse goes.
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Storm Count: Given that the primary win condition here is Ad Nauseam, you often don't need to concern yourself with storm count. Playing on MTGO, I try to get as close to 10 as possible because it leaves less clicking, but darn it all if Ad Nauseam -> stuff -> Tendrils isn't just the lengthiest of processes. If you, from amusement or necessity, actually have to Grapeshot someone, you have Past in Flames to enable that. Regarding Empty the Warrens, my failed attempts there are more often due to being a turn too late rather than 2 Goblins too few. The initial Probe lets you optimize your pursuit of the green-dude assault, and getting in there with the optimal speed is going to win you more games than slow-rolling to get 2 more guys (notice I'm saying it will win MORE games because we're talking about generalities, there are obvious exceptions to this as well, but I'm arguing the general case).
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these 2 goblins can make one hell of a difference once you play against DRS and it's lifegain. As long as I win around 40% if my games with goblins, stormcount remains relevant. I don't get what saving Probes for turn 2 goblins has to do with "slow-rolling"
Natural Tendrils chains are the most relevant case for conserving a Probe, as you can't swing with Tendrils multiple times and don't have a storm engine to increase the cards you have to play around with.
However, not only is this a relatively uncommon route to victory for this deck, it's also the one where you would most definitely want the info an earlier Probe would have provided anyway. Knowing the opponent's counters/hand is invaluable before going because it lets you bait their counters for storm count, or alert you from the start that you couldn't, for whatever reason, pursue a more typical line. For a prime example of what I'm talking about, look at game 1 of the Dan Jordan/Bryant Cook feature match where an initial Probe shows Bryant the 2 Force of Wills his opponent has and lets him thus plan out his next 3 cantrips to sculpt a natural Tendrils line past his opponent's own Force of Wills.
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Oh, it's not THAT uncommon if you ask me. There is enough self-inflicted lifeloss in the format that 8-9 stormcount is enough to finish a game, but I still see people mindlessly fetching Ad Nauseam from their deck with 6 mana float, missing that their hellbent Infernal equals 3 stormcount if its chained into Wish into ToA. The early info aspect isn't relevant, if you aim to reach a natural storm-kill, unless your opponent is running discard. Here, being on the play/draw may alter your decision
Impersonating another deck: This is the one that I take the most issue with, because I feel it's highly over-rated. It's one thing to use Misty Rainforest instead of Polluted Delta so you look less obvious as a Storm deck, it's quite another to gimp your own plays for the chance to maybe confuse an opponent. I feel like making your hand less dynamic so you can pretend to be Delver is idiotic.
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it is and no one said you should make a bad play like fetching Volcanic Island as your first land if you hand is full with black spells or the like. The same is true with Probe-casting or turn-1-discard-or-cantrip-questions.
Scouting: As the "Chalice example" shows, scouting can be really relevant. Not just because it lets you know whether to throw out a Therapy versus a Ponder, for instance, but because it lets you know when you can go off. When I Probe turn 1 and see the Chalice, not only do I know I have to remove the Chalice if I can't go off but I also know I can now go off right now if I want to. Also, knowing if Wasteland exists so you can lead with Trop/Gemstone instead of U. Sea is relevant, even if Chalice is 1% of the meta, you're being ignorant if you throwout the whole lesson based on the example. Wasteland and Force of Will are far more relevant in the meta, and Probe scouts those just fine too, hope thats sufficient for you.