[Deck] T.E.S. - The EPIC Storm

[Lemnear]

Scouting: As the "Chalice example" shows, scouting can be really relevant. Not just because it lets you know whether to throw out a Therapy versus a Ponder, for instance, but because it lets you know when you can go off. When I Probe turn 1 and see the Chalice, not only do I know I have to remove the Chalice if I can't go off but I also know I can now go off right now if I want to. Also, knowing if Wasteland exists so you can lead with Trop/Gemstone instead of U. Sea is relevant, even if Chalice is 1% of the meta, you're being ignorant if you throwout the whole lesson based on the example. Wasteland and Force of Will are far more relevant in the meta, and Probe scouts those just fine too, hope thats sufficient for you.

First, we need to make clear that we are only talking about game 1 in general as the whole "disguise" topic only matters there. On the draw you can tell a lot of opposing decks based on their opening play without a Probe and unless I have a turn 1 combo or a Therapy as well, auto-casting Probe is questionable. Take an example of you having Gemstone and Misty, Brainstorm and a probe in your hand against an opener of Topical -> Delver. Wouldn't you want to cast the probe turn 2 to see if that obvious RUG Delver opponent holds/has drawn a stifle for your fetch or reveal that he maybe shouldn't follow up with tarmogoyf and tap out vs. Storm?

Complete Information: Yes, cards in hand change over the course of the game so your look at the opponents hand is a fleeting advantage. However, knowing what you're going to be holding is prime info for you too. If you ever tried Belcher or some other such deck, you've seen those awkward hands with 2+ Probes/Street Wraiths and have had to make that choice whether your hand will actually get there. Sandbagging a Probe is a smaller version of that issue.

In a Format in which basically each deck starts with "4 Brainstorm, 4 Ponder, 6 Fetchlands" I don't value the early information if my opponents hand too high unless I can combo the same turn or the turn after. For my taste there is a bit too much emphasis in this discussion of hitting a miraculous LED or so with a blind draw off probe "which completely alters your gameplan". Just saying

Let's say you open U. Sea, Gemstone Mine, Probe, Ponder, Rite of Flame, LED, Lotus Petal. If you Ponder initially, without Probe, you don't know whether you need Protection + Business or just Business, if the very top card is Tutor/Wish and you didn't Probe you not only missed out on 12 Goblins but also on the knowledge that such a plan would or wouldn't work etc. If we replace Ponder with Brainstorm here, the example becomes even more obvious: acting without as much knowledge as possible about both players hands makes it harder to find the fastest most intrusive path to victory.

come on. These hands are exactly the examples we don't have to discuss. There are 6 mana turn 1 and all you need to hit is an 8-outer and if you draw a manasource like LED, RoF or DR you can gamble once more on hitting a 10-outer (this time with EtW and AN in addition) with Ponder if you sac LED in response

Now, as mentioned, multiple Probes obfuscates things, lets look at this hand instead: Probe, Probe, Dark Ritual, Misty Rainforest, Brainstorm, Burning Wish, Lotus Petal. Here, we don't throw all out Probes at the opponent, just the one. This is because Probe not only improves Ponder and Brainstorm, but it makes the other Probes better as well. If I see FoW, 2-3 lands and other counter-ish cards, I know I'm in for a longer games and I know to save the second Probe for a later turn when I hope to go off. If I see Thalia or something, though, I know I have to get my shit together and the latest I'd wait to Probe is next turn after they've made their first land drop.

I have to ask here: would you play the Brainstorm here off the land misty rainforests digs up or would you sacrifice a Petal to do so with a hand which is already not that strong? I don't think you want to cast that brainstorm before your turn 2 unless you are a gambling man and want to push turn 1, hoping to find at least 3 mana via Probes and Brainstorm (color issues aside) and if you want to save the Brainstorm here for another turn as your only possible turn 1 play you can count on, I don't see it a mistake to simply drop the Misty and pass the turn on the play.

Now, there are some counterarguments to this and I'm going to address them too, because that's how reasonable discourse goes.

-snip-

Storm Count: Given that the primary win condition here is Ad Nauseam, you often don't need to concern yourself with storm count. Playing on MTGO, I try to get as close to 10 as possible because it leaves less clicking, but darn it all if Ad Nauseam -> stuff -> Tendrils isn't just the lengthiest of processes. If you, from amusement or necessity, actually have to Grapeshot someone, you have Past in Flames to enable that. Regarding Empty the Warrens, my failed attempts there are more often due to being a turn too late rather than 2 Goblins too few. The initial Probe lets you optimize your pursuit of the green-dude assault, and getting in there with the optimal speed is going to win you more games than slow-rolling to get 2 more guys (notice I'm saying it will win MORE games because we're talking about generalities, there are obvious exceptions to this as well, but I'm arguing the general case).

these 2 goblins can make one hell of a difference once you play against DRS and it's lifegain. As long as I win around 40% if my games with goblins, stormcount remains relevant. I don't get what saving Probes for turn 2 goblins has to do with "slow-rolling"

Natural Tendrils chains are the most relevant case for conserving a Probe, as you can't swing with Tendrils multiple times and don't have a storm engine to increase the cards you have to play around with. However, not only is this a relatively uncommon route to victory for this deck, it's also the one where you would most definitely want the info an earlier Probe would have provided anyway. Knowing the opponent's counters/hand is invaluable before going because it lets you bait their counters for storm count, or alert you from the start that you couldn't, for whatever reason, pursue a more typical line. For a prime example of what I'm talking about, look at game 1 of the Dan Jordan/Bryant Cook feature match where an initial Probe shows Bryant the 2 Force of Wills his opponent has and lets him thus plan out his next 3 cantrips to sculpt a natural Tendrils line past his opponent's own Force of Wills.

Oh, it's not THAT uncommon if you ask me. There is enough self-inflicted lifeloss in the format that 8-9 stormcount is enough to finish a game, but I still see people mindlessly fetching Ad Nauseam from their deck with 6 mana float, missing that their hellbent Infernal equals 3 stormcount if its chained into Wish into ToA. The early info aspect isn't relevant, if you aim to reach a natural storm-kill, unless your opponent is running discard. Here, being on the play/draw may alter your decision

Impersonating another deck: This is the one that I take the most issue with, because I feel it's highly over-rated. It's one thing to use Misty Rainforest instead of Polluted Delta so you look less obvious as a Storm deck, it's quite another to gimp your own plays for the chance to maybe confuse an opponent. I feel like making your hand less dynamic so you can pretend to be Delver is idiotic.

it is and no one said you should make a bad play like fetching Volcanic Island as your first land if you hand is full with black spells or the like. The same is true with Probe-casting or turn-1-discard-or-cantrip-questions.

[Pelikanudo]

Hi all related to the Gitaxian probe discussion...

well, I've played G.P. in so many ways depending on the scenario that I could not say if it's well played or not if I've not seen the game developing. and you all boys waste the time if you don't limítate more the scenarios, so I will propose some Case Studies scenarios and give my opinion and you can share also yours, just to help

Common Scenario to All:
- it's first turn
- you start
- you're in the next SCG tournament meta inmediatly to occur.
- Your opponent does not know you and neither your deck.

Different Scenarios:

I play the Opening list but -1 Tropical +1I.T. and more options for B.Wish
Following Hands + G.P:

a) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Scalding Tarn, RoF = Keep G.P. I'll do scalding to volcanic to ponder, maybe Ponder makes me change my mind.
b) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Volcanic Island, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind.
c) Gemstone Mire, Volcanic Island, B.Wish, Brainstorm, RoF, LED = Likely to Keep, but not sure.
d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, Volcanic Island, RoF, LED = I keep in here G.P.
e) Underground Sea, Ponder, Gemstone, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P, I want to know which route is better
f) Underground Sea, Ponder, C.Mox, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P., I want to know which route is better
g) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Duress, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding business
h) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Gitaxian Probe, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding business
d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, C.Mox, RoF, LED = Play G.P.

I just feel thats it what I'd do all the days of the week - really like this phrase Lem!, maybe you dont agree, and really nothing will happen. Joke.
hope this helps!

[Tom T]

Hi all related to the Gitaxian probe discussion...

well, I've played G.P. in so many ways depending on the scenario that I could not say if it's well played or not if I've not seen the game developing. and you all boys waste the time if you don't limítate more the scenarios, so I will propose some Case Studies scenarios and give my opinion and you can share also yours, just to help

Common Scenario to All:
- it's first turn
- you start
- you're in the next SCG tournament meta inmediatly to occur.
- Your opponent does not know you and neither your deck.

Different Scenarios:

I play the Opening list but -1 Tropical +1I.T. and more options for B.Wish
Following Hands + G.P:

a) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Scalding Tarn, RoF = Keep G.P. I'll do scalding to volcanic to ponder, maybe Ponder makes me change my mind. play probe and ponder looking for business. Also you can check for stifle which will determine your choice of landdrop that turn

b) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Volcanic Island, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind. everytime I ponder I'll probe first to see an extra card. Also ad nauseam or mana+business wins here
c) Gemstone Mire, Volcanic Island, B.Wish, Brainstorm,
RoF, LED = Likely to Keep, but not sure.
Would totally keep this, and volcanic go. Keep BS up for potential discard.
d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, Volcanic Island, RoF, LED = I keep in here G.P.tarn, go
e) Underground Sea, Ponder, Gemstone, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P, I want to know which route is better same as B
f) Underground Sea, Ponder, C.Mox, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P., I want to know which route is better led is win, and after that possible ponder into Goblins
g) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Duress, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding business same as B
h) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Gitaxian Probe, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding businessplay 1 probe and ponder
d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, C.Mox, RoF, LED = Play G.P. (You're making 12/14 Goblins here

I just feel thats it what I'd do all the days of the week - really like this phrase Lem!, maybe you dont agree, and really nothing will happen. Joke.
hope this helps!

[Lemnear]

Hi all related to the Gitaxian probe discussion...

well, I've played G.P. in so many ways depending on the scenario that I could not say if it's well played or not if I've not seen the game developing. and you all boys waste the time if you don't limítate more the scenarios, so I will propose some Case Studies scenarios and give my opinion and you can share also yours, just to help

Common Scenario to All:
- it's first turn
- you start
- you're in the next SCG tournament meta inmediatly to occur.
- Your opponent does not know you and neither your deck.

Different Scenarios:

I play the Opening list but -1 Tropical +1I.T. and more options for B.Wish
Following Hands + G.P:

a) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Scalding Tarn, RoF = Keep G.P. I'll do scalding to volcanic to ponder, maybe Ponder makes me change my mind.

probe, Gemstone, Ponder as you can't hide that you are TES with Gemstone and sure don't want to waste the Fetchland-shuffle just for faking being RUG

b) Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Ponder, Volcanic Island, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind.

I see a turn 1 combo if you draw IT/BW. Would not leave that chance slip

c) Gemstone Mire, Volcanic Island, B.Wish, Brainstorm, RoF, LED = Likely to Keep, but not sure.

keep, Volcanic, go

d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, Volcanic Island, RoF, LED = I keep in here G.P.

keep, Tarn, go

e) Underground Sea, Ponder, Gemstone, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P, I want to know which route is better

probe here. You can't hide your nature with those lands and might wanna know if to Ponder or to Duress

f) Underground Sea, Ponder, C.Mox, Dark Ritual, Duress, I.Tutor = Play G.P., I want to know which route is better

there is no red Source for EtW anyway. Probe first

g) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Duress, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding business

Probe first as you have no Hände to disguise and once more have to decide between discard and cantrip

h) Underground Sea, Ponder, Dark Ritual, Gitaxian Probe, RoF, Lotus Petal = Keep G.P., maybe Ponder makes me change my mind, I'll likely to suffle if not finding business
d) Scalding Tarn, Duress, B.Wish, C.Mox, RoF, LED = Play G.P

guaranteed turn 1 Goblins here

I just feel thats it what I'd do all the days of the week - really like this phrase Lem!, maybe you dont agree, and really nothing will happen. Joke.
hope this helps!

pretty sure it was "any day of the week? ;)

[Tom T]

So during testing I came across some awkward hands and I felt like listing some starting hands just for practice. I know I like to figure theoretical hands out and thought I wouldn't be the only one.

t tried to list those which are hard to decide if one should mulligan or not, or have multiple first turn plays.

List: Discard spells only as protection, 1 IT in side, Tropical main (13 land)


1. On the play, hand of 7, unknown opponent, pre-board

1.1 Gemstone Mine, Chrome Mox, Burning Wish, Gemstone Mine, Volcanic Island, Dark Ritual, Rite of Flame

1.2 Underground Sea, Volcanic Island, Gitaxian Probe, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Lotus Petal, Gemstone Mine

1.3 Gemstone Mine, Burning Wish, Lotus Petal, Rite of Flame, Ad Nauseam, Burning Wish, Ponder

1.4 Gitaxian Probe, Cabal Therapy, Duress, Duress, Misty Rainforest, Ponder, Lion's Eye Diamond

1.5 Lion's Eye Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond, Dark Ritual, Ponder, Burning Wish, Empty the Warrens, Gitaxian Probe

1.6 Gitaxian Probe, Duress, Gemstone Mine, Cabal Therapy, Flooded Strand, Lotus Petal, Cabal Therapy

1.7 Burning Wish, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Empty the Warrens, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm

1.8 Underground Sea, Infernal Tutor, Flooded Strand, Chrome Mox, Infernal Tutor, Ponder, Gemstone Mine

1.9 Cabal Therapy, Duress, Ad Nauseam, Duress, Volcanic Island, Misty Rainforest, Ponder

1.10 Burning Wish, Infernal Tutor, Duress, Cabal Therapy, Gemstone Mine, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm

1.11 Ponder, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Dark Ritual, Misty Rainforest, Flooded Strand, Lion's Eye Diamond

1.12 Dark Ritual, Duress, Cabal Therapy, Cabal Therapy, Gemstone Mide, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish

1.13 Dark Ritual, Underground Sea, Lotus Petal, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish, Flooded Strand, Gemstone Mine

1.14 Ad Nauseam, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Underground Sea, Rite of Flame, Cabal Therapy, Gitaxian Probe

1.15 Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Chrome Mox, Rite of Flame, Brainstorm


2. On the play, hand of 6, unknown opponent, pre-board

2.1 Brainstorm, Lotus Petal, Ad Nauseam, Burning Wish, Dark Ritual, Brainstorm

2.2 Rite of Flame, Brainstorm, Infernal Tutor, Lion's Eye Diamond, Ponder, Lotus Petal

2.3 Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Lion's Eye Diamond, Gitaxian Probe, Ponder, Volcanic Island

2.4 Gemstone Mine, Tropical Island, Ponder, Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Empty the Warrens

2.5 Burning Wish, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Lotus Petal, Brainstorm, Gemstone Mine

[paeng4983]

1. On the play, hand of 7, unknown opponent, pre-board

1.1 , ( Keep )

1.2 , ( Mull )

1.3 ( Keep )

1.4 ( Keep )

1.5 ( Mull )

1.6 ( Mull )

1.7 ( Keep )

1.8 ( Mull )

1.9 ( Keep )

1.10 ( Mull )

1.11 ( Keep )

1.12 ( Mull )

1.13 ( Keep )

1.14 ( Keep )

1.15 ( Keep )


2. On the play, hand of 6, unknown opponent, pre-board

2.1 ( Urrghhh .. Keep )

2.2 ( Keep )

2.3 ( Keep )

2.4 ( Mull )

2.5 ( Mull )

[Asthereal]

2. On the play, hand of 6, unknown opponent, pre-board

2.1 ( Urrghhh .. Keep )

2.4 ( Mull )

2.5 ( Mull )

I'd probably go:

2.1 Mull (Petal>Brainstorm is the only play. Bricking means losing immidiately because of the Brainstorm lock.)
2.2 Keep
2.3 Keep
2.4 Keep
2.5 Keep

The last two we have very limited chances of getting a better five, I feel.
I agree with most of the 1.X choices, though I would keep the 3x Protection hands probably. But that may have something to do with what they tend to play here. 60-70% blue decks, more protection is fine.

[Togores]

Bryant. Why you would only side one random pithing vs rug? Also having one is great att all times if u side it. And a second one could easily be brainstomed away if u get to draw it or just run in into a daze as a discard for it. So why not just swaping for 2 ponders?

[Tom T]

1. On the play, hand of 7, unknown opponent, pre-board

1.1 , ( Keep )

1.2 , ( Mull )

1.3 ( Keep )

1.4 ( Keep )

1.5 ( Mull )

1.6 ( Mull )

1.7 ( Keep ) would you GP here, or mox(GP) Brainstorm?

1.8 ( Mull )

1.9 ( Keep ) would you T1 Ponder or Duress?

1.10 ( Mull )

1.11 ( Keep )

1.12 ( Mull )

1.13 ( Keep ) T2 10 Goblins most likely without protection?

1.14 ( Keep )

1.15 ( Keep ) Would you imprint the GP or play it and LP into Brainstorm?


2. On the play, hand of 6, unknown opponent, pre-board

2.1 ( Urrghhh .. Keep )

2.2 ( Keep )

2.3 ( Keep )

2.4 ( Mull )

2.5 ( Mull )

[paeng4983]

1.7 Burning Wish, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Empty the Warrens, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm
Tom T: would you GP here, or mox(GP) Brainstorm?
- Lotus Petal into Brainstorm (definitely I’ll get something from that).
(Then make sure that ETW is the top most card of my library)
If I get a land drop it, or imprint whatever color I get from Brainstorm.
Maybe I can get one or two more spells off that Brainstorm cards.
(assuming I only get one)
Drop LED. Probe, crack LED, get ETW for five or six.
That’s 12-14-16 goblins on turn one.

1.9 Cabal Therapy, Duress, Ad Nauseam, Duress, Volcanic Island, Misty Rainforest, Ponder
Tom T: would you T1 Ponder or Duress?
- I will just pass. Then Fetch and Ponder on my second turn.
Digging at a possible 5 cards is much better than digging for 3 or 4.
I have CT and Duress in case I’ll go off. Besides, we can look like we’re something like BUG deck.

1.13 Dark Ritual, Underground Sea, Lotus Petal, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish, Flooded Strand, Gemstone Mine
Tom T: T2 10 Goblins most likely without protection?
- Two things were running in my mind when I said keep. First, a very clear 1st turn Flooded pass. Another strategy of “looking like a blue base deck.” In this way, its like a free probe for us the moment he drops his land and/or cards. Second, if it is a non blue then, definitely I’d go for it, from goblin plan to Ad Naus plan whatever the deck gives me. If it is a blue base deck, then for sure I’ll take my time.
Oh, if he has a turn one Duress/ Thoughtseize or Trinisphere or Chalice of the Void, then let it be. ^_^

1.15 Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Chrome Mox, Rite of Flame, Brainstorm
Tom T: Would you imprint the GP or play it and LP into Brainstorm?
- Against unknown opponent, with this hand, I’d probably imprint the probe and dig off my library.
Having a Mox Sapphire is a good thing especially if I ran into cantrips later on.

[paeng4983]

1.7 Burning Wish, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Empty the Warrens, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm
Tom T: would you GP here, or mox(GP) Brainstorm?
- Lotus Petal into Brainstorm (definitely I’ll get something from that).
(Then make sure that ETW is the top most card of my library)
If I get a land drop it, or imprint whatever color I get from Brainstorm.
Maybe I can get one or two more spells off that Brainstorm cards.
(assuming I only get one)
Drop LED. Probe, crack LED, get ETW for five or six.
That’s 12-14-16 goblins on turn one.

1.9 Cabal Therapy, Duress, Ad Nauseam, Duress, Volcanic Island, Misty Rainforest, Ponder
Tom T: would you T1 Ponder or Duress?
- I will just pass. Then Fetch and Ponder on my second turn.
Digging at a possible 5 cards is much better than digging for 3 or 4.
I have CT and Duress in case I’ll go off. Besides, we can look like we’re something like BUG deck.

1.13 Dark Ritual, Underground Sea, Lotus Petal, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish, Flooded Strand, Gemstone Mine
Tom T: T2 10 Goblins most likely without protection?
- Two things were running in my mind when I said keep. First, a very clear 1st turn Flooded pass. Another strategy of “looking like a blue base deck.” In this way, its like a free probe for us the moment he drops his land and/or cards. Second, if it is a non blue then, definitely I’d go for it, from goblin plan to Ad Naus plan whatever the deck gives me. If it is a blue base deck, then for sure I’ll take my time.
Oh, if he has a turn one Duress/ Thoughtseize or Trinisphere or Chalice of the Void, then let it be. ^_^

1.15 Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Chrome Mox, Rite of Flame, Brainstorm
Tom T: Would you imprint the GP or play it and LP into Brainstorm?
- Against unknown opponent, with this hand, I’d probably imprint the probe and dig off my library.
Having a Mox Sapphire is a good thing especially if I ran into cantrips later on.

[Tom T]

1.7 Burning Wish, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Empty the Warrens, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm
Tom T: would you GP here, or mox(GP) Brainstorm?
- Lotus Petal into Brainstorm (definitely I’ll get something from that).
(Then make sure that ETW is the top most card of my library)
If I get a land drop it, or imprint whatever color I get from Brainstorm.
Maybe I can get one or two more spells off that Brainstorm cards.
(assuming I only get one)
Drop LED. Probe, crack LED, get ETW for five or six.
That’s 12-14-16 goblins on turn one.

I missed that one, thanks for pointing out!

On another note, I'm writing a couple of programs for my calculator to calculate the probability to draw a certain card. That worked, but now I'm trying to figure out the following.

Imagine you play a Brainstorm. There are 53 cards left in your deck, among those are 4 Lotus Petal and 4 LED. What is the probability that among those 3 cards there is at least 1 Lotus Petal and 1 LED.

I know it has to do with multivariate hypergeometric distribution, but here's the problem: There is one random card which can be one of the wanted cards. Also, I also want the formula to calculate with drawing more cards than 3.

Any ideas?

[callahan09]

I missed that one, thanks for pointing out!

On another note, I'm writing a couple of programs for my calculator to calculate the probability to draw a certain card. That worked, but now I'm trying to figure out the following.

Imagine you play a Brainstorm. There are 53 cards left in your deck, among those are 4 Lotus Petal and 4 LED. What is the probability that among those 3 cards there is at least 1 Lotus Petal and 1 LED.

I know it has to do with multivariate hypergeometric distribution, but here's the problem: There is one random card which can be one of the wanted cards. Also, I also want the formula to calculate with drawing more cards than 3.

Any ideas?

This should help:
http://www.gatheringmagic.com/chrism...-distribution/

[Tom T]

This should help:
http://www.gatheringmagic.com/chrism...-distribution/

Thanks! That helped a lot but didn't answer the scenario, because Chris addresses only situations where he demands exact amounts of specific cards.

I found this:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/m...c-distribution

It helped me put up a formula to calculate the probability of drawing 2 different cards at least once in X draws. (Brainstorming in a LED and Petal with 4 of each in the library left and a library of 53 ->3,28%)

[Ogh!]

Thanks! That helped a lot but didn't answer the scenario, because Chris addresses only situations where he demands exact amounts of specific cards.

I found this:
http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/m...c-distribution

It helped me put up a formula to calculate the probability of drawing 2 different cards at least once in X draws. (Brainstorming in a LED and Petal with 4 of each in the library left and a library of 53 ->3,28%)

This is correct. In particular:

P(1LED and 1LP and 1REST) 3.07%
P(2LED and 1LP and 0REST) 0.10%
P(1LED and 2LP and 0REST) 0.10%

P(0LED and 0LP and 3REST) 60.57%
P(1LED and 0LP and 2REST) 16.90%
P(0LED and 1LP and 2REST) 16.90%
P(2LED and 0LP and 1REST) 1.15%
P(3LED and 0LP and 0REST) 0.02%
P(0LED and 2LP and 1REST) 1.15%
P(0LED and 3LP and 0REST) 0.02%

[Tom T]

This is correct. In particular:

P(1LED and 1LP and 1REST) 3.07%
P(2LED and 1LP and 0REST) 0.10%
P(1LED and 2LP and 0REST) 0.10%

P(0LED and 0LP and 3REST) 60.57%
P(1LED and 0LP and 2REST) 16.90%
P(0LED and 1LP and 2REST) 16.90%
P(2LED and 0LP and 1REST) 1.15%
P(3LED and 0LP and 0REST) 0.02%
P(0LED and 2LP and 1REST) 1.15%
P(0LED and 3LP and 0REST) 0.02%

Does this formula consider that you've stacked your deck randomly and that, while you're drawing, the order doesn't change? I mean, I think we're calculating now that you're drawing 3x 1 card and that the deck is randomized (is this a word? :p) in between.

[Ogh!]

Does this formula consider that you've stacked your deck randomly

Yes.

and that, while you're drawing, the order doesn't change?

This doesn't matter conceptually. You could reshuffle your deck after having drawn the first card from BS, and then another time after having drawn the second card. It wouldn't affect our probability calculation as long as we account for the fact that we do not put the card(s) back that we have drawn (which we do) and that the deck was "properly randomized" in the first place.

I mean, I think we're calculating now that you're drawing 3x 1 card and that the deck is randomized (is this a word? :p) in between.

I think, I understand what you mean. Your/my calculation accounts for the fact that we do not replace a card after having drawn one. This is the correct way to calculate the probability you're looking for.

[Lemnear]

So during testing I came across some awkward hands and I felt like listing some starting hands just for practice. I know I like to figure theoretical hands out and thought I wouldn't be the only one.

t tried to list those which are hard to decide if one should mulligan or not, or have multiple first turn plays.

List: Discard spells only as protection, 1 IT in side, Tropical main (13 land)


1. On the play, hand of 7, unknown opponent, pre-board

1.1 Gemstone Mine, Chrome Mox, Burning Wish, Gemstone Mine, Volcanic Island, Dark Ritual, Rite of Flame

keep

1.2 Underground Sea, Volcanic Island, Gitaxian Probe, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Lotus Petal, Gemstone Mine

keep

1.3 Gemstone Mine, Burning Wish, Lotus Petal, Rite of Flame, Ad Nauseam, Burning Wish, Ponder

mull

1.4 Gitaxian Probe, Cabal Therapy, Duress, Duress, Misty Rainforest, Ponder, Lion's Eye Diamond

keep

1.5 Lion's Eye Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond, Dark Ritual, Ponder, Burning Wish, Empty the Warrens, Gitaxian Probe

mull

1.6 Gitaxian Probe, Duress, Gemstone Mine, Cabal Therapy, Flooded Strand, Lotus Petal, Cabal Therapy

keep

1.7 Burning Wish, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Lion's Eye Diamond, Empty the Warrens, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm

keep

1.8 Underground Sea, Infernal Tutor, Flooded Strand, Chrome Mox, Infernal Tutor, Ponder, Gemstone Mine

keep

1.9 Cabal Therapy, Duress, Ad Nauseam, Duress, Volcanic Island, Misty Rainforest, Ponder

keep

1.10 Burning Wish, Infernal Tutor, Duress, Cabal Therapy, Gemstone Mine, Chrome Mox, Brainstorm

mull

1.11 Ponder, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Dark Ritual, Misty Rainforest, Flooded Strand, Lion's Eye Diamond

keep

1.12 Dark Ritual, Duress, Cabal Therapy, Cabal Therapy, Gemstone Mide, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish

mull

1.13 Dark Ritual, Underground Sea, Lotus Petal, Dark Ritual, Burning Wish, Flooded Strand, Gemstone Mine

keep

1.14 Ad Nauseam, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Underground Sea, Rite of Flame, Cabal Therapy, Gitaxian Probe

keep

1.15 Burning Wish, Chrome Mox, Gitaxian Probe, Lotus Petal, Chrome Mox, Rite of Flame, Brainstorm

mull

2. On the play, hand of 6, unknown opponent, pre-board

2.1 Brainstorm, Lotus Petal, Ad Nauseam, Burning Wish, Dark Ritual, Brainstorm

keep

2.2 Rite of Flame, Brainstorm, Infernal Tutor, Lion's Eye Diamond, Ponder, Lotus Petal

mull

2.3 Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Lion's Eye Diamond, Gitaxian Probe, Ponder, Volcanic Island

keep

2.4 Gemstone Mine, Tropical Island, Ponder, Gemstone Mine, Lotus Petal, Empty the Warrens

keep

2.5 Burning Wish, Brainstorm, Chrome Mox, Lotus Petal, Brainstorm, Gemstone Mine

keep

Took a while to respond. Outcome shouldn't surprise you guys. If questions appear, lemme know

[Asthereal]

If questions appear, lemme know

I have one:

Why keep 2.1 and mull 2.2? Both have only a Petal as IMS, but 2.2 has Ponder and Brainstorm as cantrips, where 2.1 has 2x Brainstorm. This means 2.1 has Petal into Brainstorm as only play, and not finding a land means you lock yourself out of the game. 2.2 can Ponder instead, which digs a card deeper for the land, increasing the chances of finding your land by 33%. On this fact alone I would say 2.2 is 33% better than 2.1. The potential Brainstorm lock only adds to this percentage. What's your analysis? What did I miss?

[Lemnear]

I have one:

Why keep 2.1 and mull 2.2? Both have only a Petal as IMS, but 2.2 has Ponder and Brainstorm as cantrips, where 2.1 has 2x Brainstorm. This means 2.1 has Petal into Brainstorm as only play, and not finding a land means you lock yourself out of the game. 2.2 can Ponder instead, which digs a card deeper for the land, increasing the chances of finding your land by 33%. On this fact alone I would say 2.2 is 33% better than 2.1. The potential Brainstorm lock only adds to this percentage. What's your analysis? What did I miss?

You asume that I would cast a spell in my first turn here, which isn't the case. The reason for keeping 2.1 and mull 2.2 are the remaining cards. Let us remove the Petal, the cantrips and other blanks:

2.1 Ad Nauseam, Dark Ritual
2.2 Rite of Flame, Infernal Tutor, Lion's Eye Diamond

If you draw a dark Ritual or initial mana sources for hand 2.1, it can combo within the first 3 turns despite the mulligan, unlike 2.2.