[Discussion] Combo Summer- Coming Soon?

[Pale Moon FTW]

SI is the fastest deck in the format. I have goldfished it a little and it really does have almost 70% chance of winning turn 1. The problem is that FoW happens to be in the format. The deck runs absolutely no protection and can't play around it. If your draw4 is countered, you fizzle end of story. Of course you can try again later but then you have to worry about Stifle too (you'll have to do that when on the draw too of course) and Stifle tendrils is just GG because you'll often be on 5 or 4 life from your draw4s.
It's a glasscannon deck designed for a controlless meta but ATM no such meta exists anywhere (I really doubt that). But it is pretty logical that the fastest deck in the format is a glass cannon.

[emidln]

First off, the Tall Men are not dead cards. They are setup (blockers) that can be used to fuel an efficient ritual effect. They allow devastating plays in the form of flashbacked Cabal Therapies. Additionally, they are storm when you go off.

Second, SI, in its current forms, is less vulnerable to Force of Will than Belcher, TES, or Iggy Pop. There are two distinct variations of SI now (a line of decks named Sites and Sir Speedy (nicknames to differentiate them when I talk about the lists) as well as a line of decks under the QSI designation), and both have certain strengths and weaknesses. The Sites/Sir Speedy lists use ETW heavily mainboard, allowing the same low storm kills and baiting used in Belcher and TES, accelerated by 8 draw4s and more ritual effects. The QSI lists are still in the middle of evolution, but have currently cut LED and Infernal Tutor.

Let me explain that last part before those of you who don't actually play combo scream at me that LED is the best card in the deck. LED has a really dirty secret and it's one that will probably catch you offguard. It's really good in combo, but only in tutor-based combo. SI is decidedly not tutor-based, as you attempt to win by creating card advantage and then blowing out an opponent with spells, countermagic or not. In traditional SI builds (the 4 Land Grant/2 Bayou builds), LED was _okay_ but not really anything special. It enabled Infernal Tutor and sometimes helped with IGG. It also would randomly lose you the game against aggro, and no-so-randomly (rather consistently if I remember right) fuck you against any form of control.

Now, fast forward to this year and I'm thinking about all the different things I've tried in draw4-based combo that gives control a hard time. They don't like a high density of draw spells from a storm deck. (check) They had especially hard times against instant-speed draw. (check) Cabal Therapy was as ass-whoppin (check). I had to find some cards to cut from my then-current list, so I evaluated what everything actually did for me. I was suprised to find out that LED pretty much did nothing, the same as Infernal Tutor, which was in the same boat as IGG. Every time I had Infernal Tutor, I would almost universally rather it be a draw4 or a win condition and not cost me an extra 1B. I cut those cards and added in Brainstorms, Meditates, Cabal Therapies, and Lands to help smooth out the manabase, main brainstorm more efficient, and be better able to use draw4s as a setup spell instead of an all-in "win now or lose" spell.

It is this combination of Brainstorm, Meditate, and Cabal Therapy, in addition to the regular suite of 8 draw4s that yields the threat density necessary to mow down control with Force of Will. Now, while SI can still turn 1, you will often dark rit into a draw4 or brainstorm before passing. This is something that SI had a much harder time with before because of a lower density of draw spells and a huge reliance on Lotus Petal as an initial mana source. Now, we can start and stop as needed with 9 lands and 4 chrome moxen in addition to our petals.

Having solved these problems and confirmed the results through testing against Gro, Threshold, Fish, and Landstill, I'm faced with a few remaining problems before I run this at Gencon. I need to re-examine the black-aggro matchup, possibly addressing it with Mystical Tutors and IGG in the sideboard. I need to statistically analyze and decide on maindeck threat density. I need to finish the sideboard plans against artifact hate.

[andrew77]

I believe there is a pretty big chance goblins has chalice in hand if they know what they are playing against game 2 and wouldn't the creatures you want to block with be countered by chalice? I don't think game 2 and 3 are going to be so easy with chalice, waste and port to slow you down and a fast clock next to it. I believe it's not a real bad matchup, but you can lose to goblins.



Maybe you are right but I have a hard time believing this. I mean, to kill on turn 1 you would probably need a dark ritual, a LED or more rituals, a draw4 but not too many and a manasource. I am sure you can come up with other hands that can win right away but the chances of having such a hand seem less than 70% even with taking mulligans to me. Can anybody confirm this? And has the deck put up any results?

You really dont need much. All you need is a draw 4 and LED, dark rit, culling. Also it's proabbly just that my legacy metgame is really screwed up, but for a time there would be like 6 goblin decks, 1 SI deck, 1 angelstompy deck and me with TES. I can't recall ever seeing SI lose to goblins. The chalice trick i talked about is really unlikely and can only be done against a deck which you can stall out against like goblins. Against almost anything else chalice at 0 is an autoloss.

Also SI is not less vurnelable to fow than TES. TES plays so many things that beat fow and stifle. Xantid swarm and empty the warrens being examples. It is also much harder to know what to force against TES than against SI. Against a monoblack SI forcing a draw 4 shuts them down, but against TES you don't know if you should force that third or fourth spell to keep them off warrens mana or if you should wait to force the tutor.

[emidln]

You really dont need much. All you need is a draw 4 and LED, dark rit, culling. Also it's proabbly just that my legacy metgame is really screwed up, but for a time there would be like 6 goblin decks, 1 SI deck, 1 angelstompy deck and me with TES. I can't recall ever seeing SI lose to goblins. The chalice trick i talked about is really unlikely and can only be done against a deck which you can stall out against like goblins. Against almost anything else chalice at 0 is an autoloss.

Also SI is not less vurnelable to fow than TES. TES plays so many things that beat fow and stifle. Xantid swarm and empty the warrens being examples. It is also much harder to know what to force against TES than against SI. Against a monoblack SI forcing a draw 4 shuts them down, but against TES you don't know if you should force that third or fourth spell to keep them off warrens mana or if you should wait to force the tutor.

SI also plays ETW, Cabal Therapy and up to 12 draw4s. SI players choose to deal with Force through ETW, Therapy, or playing right through it. Please know what you're talking about before posting, this includes reading the entire post above. Also note that SI is NEVER monoblack.

[matelml]

You really dont need much. All you need is a draw 4 and LED, dark rit, culling.

So you believe to have a 70% chance to have all that in your opening hand? And you don't also need a land or lotus petal?

The chalice trick i talked about is really unlikely and can only be done against a deck which you can stall out against like goblins. Against almost anything else chalice at 0 is an autoloss.

How are you going to stall goblins if they have a Chalice for 0? Wouldn't that counter your blockers?

@emidln: Could you post your list of SI so I can see why it would be less vulnerable to FoW than TES, Belcher and Iggy pop? Or if it's not the right thread for it send me a PM?

[emidln]

So you believe to have a 70% chance to have all that in your opening hand? And you don't also need a land or lotus petal?



How are you going to stall goblins if they have a Chalice for 0? Wouldn't that counter your blockers?

@emidln: Could you post your list of SI so I can see why it would be less vulnerable to FoW than TES, Belcher and Iggy pop? Or if it's not the right thread for it send me a PM?

I posted a link to it on the last page. I'll write up some card choices and such and put it on the source later today.

[Tacosnape]

So Scones don't beat anything but lose to Time? And Tax Rebates don't lose to ANYTHING?

Scones beat Tax Rebates. Duh.

[jazzykat]

I have to confess my metagame is never very challenging. However from briefly reading this and having played the game for 13 years, I have a point or two:

So there may be a time coming when there are a variety of combo decks and anti-combo decks right? To me that makes it ripe for the anti-anti combo decks. Depending on matchups and all.

Besides, everyone was bitching when aggro (goblins) was dominating making pure control dead. So now there are really good combo decks that make pure control at least not a retarded choice. Good, great in fact. Maybe force spike will be a good card?

Oh and if anyone brings up Flash in the same sentence as one of these other decks they need to seriously evaluate their understanding of MTG.

Flash: 2 mana +1 instant+ 1 creature. Add to that: disruption + zero cost tutors and counterspells and compact kill condition. Oh, and it won at instant speed...

All other combo decks are not nearly this elegant or resilient. If empty the warrens is so unbeatable then I will randomly play sandstorms (Oh, and its a first turn answer to lackey on the play as well!) in my board... It is a hell of a lot different to face either glass cannons, decks that rely on creatures to kill you (even if it makes a lot of them on turn 1), or decks that go off between turns 2-4, than a deck that kills on turns 0-2.

The big difference being with Flash you had no chance to play the game sometimes. You just lost, you couldn't rip a wonder card. In fact you may not have even gotten to draw a card!

With these other decks the fundamental turn may be decreased but at least you have a chance to do something about it most of the time. Oh and these decks can fizzle.

With Flash the fundamental turn was definitely dropped and even if your combo was disrupted (You can't really considering casting an instant with a specific creature in your hand fizzling can you?) You can just go tutor it up again in a turn or two. How many of these decks recover from a stifle like flash (if it just didn't counter it) did?

[Guy I Don't Know]

The problem isn't combo, its the players that don't want to recognize combo as a healthy part of the metagame, refuse to prepare for combo, get their asses handed to them by combo and then complain about combo. Even tho' combo is very fast, as a result it's also very vulnerable, and the opponent can end the game against combo just as fast as combo can end the game against them.

First of all, I don't think combo that can win on turn 1-2 on the play and turn 1 on the draw is fair or healthy for the legacy format. I've been playing this format since who knows when... when goblins didn't have siege-gang commander and when people played with oath of druids. There weren't 1-2 wins except with maybe dragon but almost no one had those cards so it wasnt a big deal. There was Goblin Charbelcher decks but they didn't have etw the warrens so with proper hate you could win about half the time. Now... even with a 15 card sideboard to try to win against combo that is as fast as belcher, its about impossible. I have to change decks... "people don't like shifts in the format" people say but it is more I don't like this shift in the format... It comes down to play Belcher, play blue and be able to beat belcher, or lose to belcher. I'm now playing belcher and it's just not fun to play legacy anymore... Its kinda like the card game war, except you reveal 2-3 cards, see who as the highest card and he wins. I rather have a format that has more interaction and skill but thats just me. I am personally moving away from legacy until it comes something more interesting and the games take longer than shuffling.

[Berzerked]

I rather have a format that has more interaction and skill but thats just me. I am personally moving away from legacy until it comes something more interesting and the games take longer than shuffling.

Wow...if you're having THAT much trouble, then maybe your skill is the problem.

Yes, some games you will lose to a Belcher before you can draw, it happens. To be honest, though, I've lost more games to Goblins a few turns in - with hate sitting in my hand - than I've lost to turn1 Belchers. A few cheap cards (Pithing Needle, Stifle, FoW, Daze, EE), which are not narrow at all, and some decent decision making, and the game is yours...so I don't know what the huge deal is.
Thresh even main decks all of those.

[HPC]

Combo is fine when it follows the rules of the game. Most people don't have a problem dying to Tendrils of Agony because a lethal storm count requires more spells being played than you have in your hand. Belcher at least is a permanent with a 7 mana expenditure and three mana activation cost that can be countered, needled, or chanted.

EtW doesn't follow any of these rules. A game can pretty reliably be won by just casting mana acceleration into a EtW. Unlike Tendrils where you're given a chance to counter draw-4s or Ill-gains; EtW puts you in the awkward position of countering mana acceleration instead of a business spell.

Trying to find a solution that fits into your deck that can defend against both creatures and direct damage in the form of Belcher or Tendrils is another matter. Threat diversity is good, but EtW fits into practically every combo deck with a heavy mana accel strategy and it gives the combo player a second angle of attack -- a completely different combo that they don't have to expend any different resources to acquire. And what about response diversity? Only CotV @1, 3sphere and Sphere of Resistance are effective at stopping the entirety of these decks. You can conditionally add Stifle (non-Belcher) and Meddling Mage to the list of useful response cards.

Combo has gotten much better, but EtW is the only reason we might be seeing a combo summer. It's overpowered because it uses its mana accel spells as double duty, storm protects itself against counterspells (practically eliminating the need for disruption) and can go off with an absurdly low storm count.

[Berzerked]

Unlike Tendrils where you're given a chance to counter draw-4s or Ill-gains; EtW puts you in the awkward position of countering mana acceleration instead of a business spell.

So what, now decision making isn't part of Magic?

[noobslayer]

I see Paul's UGr build being some good if combo becomes more than half the field. Maindecked stifle may end up being the new trend.

@HPC: Pipboy avatar for the win. Fallout forever.

[BreathWeapon]

Combo is fine when it follows the rules of the game. Most people don't have a problem dying to Tendrils of Agony because a lethal storm count requires more spells being played than you have in your hand. Belcher at least is a permanent with a 7 mana expenditure and three mana activation cost that can be countered, needled, or chanted.

EtW doesn't follow any of these rules. A game can pretty reliably be won by just casting mana acceleration into a EtW. Unlike Tendrils where you're given a chance to counter draw-4s or Ill-gains; EtW puts you in the awkward position of countering mana acceleration instead of a business spell.

Trying to find a solution that fits into your deck that can defend against both creatures and direct damage in the form of Belcher or Tendrils is another matter. Threat diversity is good, but EtW fits into practically every combo deck with a heavy mana accel strategy and it gives the combo player a second angle of attack -- a completely different combo that they don't have to expend any different resources to acquire. And what about response diversity? Only CotV @1, 3sphere and Sphere of Resistance are effective at stopping the entirety of these decks. You can conditionally add Stifle (non-Belcher) and Meddling Mage to the list of useful response cards.

Combo has gotten much better, but EtW is the only reason we might be seeing a combo summer. It's overpowered because it uses its mana accel spells as double duty, storm protects itself against counterspells (practically eliminating the need for disruption) and can go off with an absurdly low storm count.

Stifle is a significant counter against Goblin Charblecher, because it requires the Combo pilot to top deck deck 3 more mana sources in a deck where more than 1/2 of those cards are non mana sources (11 Threats, Dead Land Grants, Dead Chrome Mox, Dead Seething Songs and up to 8 other wild cards that may be dead) while a Tarmogoyf is being pumped up off of all of the card types in your graveyard and the Threshold player is drawing/cantripping into more disruption.

People are really over exaggerating how good Belcher is.

Combo has just gotten to the point where its competitive and people are freaking out over it. Now traditional aggro is a glass cannon, and if it wants to compete in a three tiered metagame it's going to have to start interacting with combo. R/g/w + artifacts have a ton of cards to fight back with, people just need to get off their ass and starting designing aggro decks with out 50% plus of one creature type in it.

Honestly, combo is looking like the healthiest thing to hit this format in years, good bye Goblin Lackey.

[jazzykat]

Shit, maybe 5/3 will be awesome for the new metagame and how aggro is that!

3sphere, and chalice MD along with the ability to power them out on the first and second turns is pretty good. Also if you are really worried about combo then put sphere of resistance in the board.

I guess what I am getting at is the decks we are going to play are going to change, lets embrace it and see how good combo can really be when we have a diverse set of tools to beat them. Remember, while EtW may not require an "all in" comittment most combo decks do require that to either get their storm count up to 9 or 10, or to get 7 mana. This takes a lot of cards and if you can stop the initial attempt you probably have won the game (effectively swinging enough tempo your way).

[BreathWeapon]

Shit, maybe 5/3 will be awesome for the new metagame and how aggro is that!

3sphere, and chalice MD along with the ability to power them out on the first and second turns is pretty good. Also if you are really worried about combo then put sphere of resistance in the board.

I guess what I am getting at is the decks we are going to play are going to change, lets embrace it and see how good combo can really be when we have a diverse set of tools to beat them. Remember, while EtW may not require an "all in" comittment most combo decks do require that to either get their storm count up to 9 or 10, or to get 7 mana. This takes a lot of cards and if you can stop the initial attempt you probably have won the game (effectively swinging enough tempo your way).

Most decks do go all in on ETW to get a storm count of 5 for 10 tokens and those that don't are pacing themselves against aggro-control with a storm count of 3 for 6 tokens. Storm count 4 for 8 tokens happens, but it's a bad idea against Goblins. Regardless, even if ETW only takes up three cards, removing the tokens is as good as an Ancestral Recall, and it only gets better from there.

As soon as combo summer hits, I guarantee red based aggro-prison is going to go ape shit on this format.

[Peter_Rotten]

Hi-Val has written an excellent article about the Belcher/Fish match. I recommend you read it.

One interesting point he raises, is the possibility of running T-goyf in the Belcher board.

[jamest]

As soon as combo summer hits, I guarantee red based aggro-prison is going to go ape shit on this format.

Why not blue based aggro prison (like Faerie Stompy)?

[Whit3 Ghost]

Why not blue based aggro prison (like Faerie Stompy)?

No Pyroclasm, less tools against Blue Based Control.

[jazzykat]

The best tools against blue based control are brown. They are Defense Grid and smokestack :B