Tabernacle and SCG

[Meister_Kai]

These four Forces are literally the only cards I own for the purpose of reselling them, and I only did that because the store had them under-priced (about half of what they were worth at the time) and I knew I could turn them around in one day and make some money (and not even a real profit; I was so happy to get the cheap Forces that I spent about $50 more that day on other cards that I would not have bought otherwise).

As it happens, I never got around to selling them, and the price lately went up a bit, to my pleasant surprise. This will actually help pay off all the times I tried to speculate on a card and failed (Elves of Deep Shadow are being reprinted in Ravnica? Surely that means copies from The Dark will go up! ).

There's nothing wrong with this, I do this all the time. I bought x3 Counterbalance for $1.50 total two weeks ago, no way I won't make a profit on them. I guess the main example of what I'm getting at is people who either just buy lots of cards just to horde them or people who go around buying 12 playsets of something just to horde until their "price Z" is reached. Sure you could argue that doing that is just the natural evolution of my counterbalance example, but I draw a morally considerable line at a certain point.

That isn't very logical, but this is all opinion. It doesn't have to be logical.

[IsThisACatInAHat?]

Meister_Kai
You're definitely right in thinking I have no statistical research to back my claim, absolutely. I think it would be impossible to have accurate data to prove my thoughts, but I wonder if we can't try to reason out some sensible conclusions even if it's just as a useless thought experiment.

We know that Legacy is growing in popularity, which we can prove with the incidence of more, bigger tournaments and record-setting turnout. We know it's growing fast because cards whose prices were stagnant for 5-6 years have jumped (even if only by $5 here or there) in the past 5-6 months. Though again I don't have hard data, we can infer (and hopefully agree) that Legacy in 2008 was less popular and had less support than in 2009. I think you're right in believing there's a fairly sizable group of people who buy multiple playsets for use in each deck; in fact, I have people in my own group who spend their (somewhat limitless) cash like that. They probably also existed before Legacy's 2009 explosion in popularity.

If we assume that these people were the primary driving force in the market for staples before, it would stand to reason that they more or less controlled the price of staples (with bounds; FoW's approximate value may never ever have dropped below $20 or climbed above $35 with just that group of people at its then-current size). Even for a fairly limited supply item (say, duals), we can probably assume there just weren't enough people buying at any one time to drive prices up above a certain point. I think it's also important to note that almost every Legacy-legal card, and every card typically considered a "staple" saw print in at least one edition that didn't have a set number of cards to be printed determined beforehand (in other words, any post-Unlimited printing). The point being, they may be old and out of print, but they're not really that difficult to come by and for almost anyone with a real income (i.e. not homeless or a student), MTG is an extremely benign hobby financially.

A truly huge explosion in popularity may well see the price of basically everything go up (obviously), but I don't think prices can get as high as you seem to fear. Worst case scenario is Legacy prices itself out of it's target market's budget, it plummets in popularity and the cards all fall back down in price. And let's be honest, not everyone spends all their extra cash on lots of 30 polluted deltas just because they like the card....

[rockout]

Be a man/woman. Help poor Timmy by selling your horde of 40 City of Traitors you've been hanging on to. Flood the market. Keep legacy affordable.

Or I can continue to play any deck I want at any time and/or let my friends borrow whatever they want.

[Meister_Kai]

Meister_Kai
We know that Legacy is growing in popularity, which we can prove with the incidence of more, bigger tournaments and record-setting turnout. We know it's growing fast because cards whose prices were stagnant for 5-6 years have jumped (even if only by $5 here or there) in the past 5-6 months. Though again I don't have hard data, we can infer (and hopefully agree) that Legacy in 2008 was less popular and had less support than in 2009. I think you're right in believing there's a fairly sizable group of people who buy multiple playsets for use in each deck; in fact, I have people in my own group who spend their (somewhat limitless) cash like that. They probably also existed before Legacy's 2009 explosion in popularity.

Yeah you are definitely correct when it comes to Legacy being more popular now than it has ever been before (and more expensive as a result). This is obviously a great, great thing. You are also right when it comes to these collecting people being around long before 2008-09. No argument there.

If we assume that these people were the primary driving force in the market for staples before, it would stand to reason that they more or less controlled the price of staples (with bounds; FoW's approximate value may never ever have dropped below $20 or climbed above $35 with just that group of people at its then-current size). Even for a fairly limited supply item (say, duals), we can probably assume there just weren't enough people buying at any one time to drive prices up above a certain point. I think it's also important to note that almost every Legacy-legal card, and every card typically considered a "staple" saw print in at least one edition that didn't have a set number of cards to be printed determined beforehand (in other words, any post-Unlimited printing). The point being, they may be old and out of print, but they're not really that difficult to come by and for almost anyone with a real income (i.e. not homeless or a student), MTG is an extremely benign hobby financially.

I also think you're mostly right about this as well, mostly (haha aliens). For a long time the price of duals etc were basically fueled by their use in Extended, and once they rotated out and players dumped theirs by the ton the price went down a little bit (fear the ever present price Z). Sure some people started buying multiple playsets around this time and yeah it probably had the same effect as pissing into the ocean. However I don't think thats the case now.

Nowadays many dealers (at least ones in my area) look to one source to determine card price and availability; Starcitygames.com If Starcity is out of stock, watch out, the card is scarce. Raise the card's price. Start speculating. Trust me when I say that about 2 months or so ago when Undiscovered Paradise became a "hit" we had a group of three people going around buying all the ones they could just so they could playtest 2 different versions of Bloodghast dredge (and some other combo-type decks) without changing sleeves or some other reason.

What I'm saying is that now that Legacy is becoming more popular, and cards are becoming more and more scarce at prices most people would consider "acceptable" (USea for $70, really?) the impact of people buying copies of cards that I would consider "excessive" (basically more than x4 of any card worth more than $10) probably doesn't seem that great now, because as you said, in most cases if you do really want something, you can just go to Starcity or whatever and buy it. However, this is not how less financially able people like me get cards. I used to get cards through christmas/birthday money, what extra money I could get during the summer, or just trading cards. The main practice of getting expensive cards however were from shops that had cards like Natural Order that didn't know how expensive the card really was (found a couple the other day in a shop for $8 a piece). Places like this are beginning to either run out of "deals" like this, or getting wise. I actually had to buy 4 City of Traitors the other day for $15 a piece. I nearly died inside. Basically the impact of scalpers or speculators will become more and more apparent the more Legacy becomes popular, or as I think, the longer it exists.

A truly huge explosion in popularity may well see the price of basically everything go up (obviously), but I don't think prices can get as high as you seem to fear. Worst case scenario is Legacy prices itself out of it's target market's budget, it plummets in popularity and the cards all fall back down in price. And let's be honest, not everyone spends all their extra cash on lots of 30 polluted deltas just because they like the card....

I think you are absolutely right in this as well, and it really is the nightmare scenario. It just kills me that a probable death of the format could come from an ideal thats just so inherently, well, greedy I guess. However, due to the price Z effect and the fact that cards like grindstone STILL haven't gone done much in price, I think that FOW's "plummeted" price could very well be $35 depending on how big the bubble eventually gets.

@Rockout "Or I can continue to play any deck I want at any time and/or let my friends borrow whatever they want."

Fuck yes you can, but I reserve the right to roll my eyes when I see you flash 12 City of Traitors in your binder and hear about how you bought them on the cheap when I can't find one high or low and have to buy them from an expensive site for well above their actual use-price ratio.

Its sort of like all the ban Tarmogoyf threads, it seems to me that a lot of people in those threads obviously side one way or the other on the debate and attempt to pin a bunch of logic to their obviously biased opinion. I think arguing about prices is fun, but they take that thread very seriously. Perhaps they should. Perhaps we should take this discussion more seriously. I don't want to though. At the end of the day I think owning 50 Phyrexian Dreadnoughts is stupid and if you don't think that it is thats just awesome.

[dahcmai]

Remember a few of us actually do buy several copies of cards for the sheer fact that it's an obvious good investment. Do you blame me for owning 173 copies of Force of Will? I sat on those until recently since the days of Alliances. I also was sitting on quite a few Mana Drains and Bazaar of Baghdad's.

Does this mean I changed the market when I decided to sell those Forces? I did unload them lately since I needed a house down payment. I didn't notice any difference in price when they sold from the first to the last ones. Guess it didn't make that much of a difference. Did you notice that large influx of cards back into the market? I doubt it.

I admit I did control the price of Sea Drake for a while. It was too easy to do and well, I'm not in the business to lose money. You can blame me for the rise to the extreme end of $40. I called it good and sold out when they hit that.

I own quite a few cards, but I bet if I sold out tomorrow, no one would notice the difference.



On a side note, I have noticed a trend in older cards from Saga and Tempest era getting harder and harder to get. If you want a particular card or need to finish a playset of anything from those sets, I would get them soon. I assume things like Scroll Rack and Mox Diamond will start getting silly prices. Useful cards that aren't a large deck component, but if they end up in some winning deck, they will skyrocket. Mark the words.

[MMogg]

On a side note, I have noticed a trend in older cards from Saga and Tempest era getting harder and harder to get. If you want a particular card or need to finish a playset of anything from those sets, I would get them soon. I assume things like Scroll Rack and Mox Diamond will start getting silly prices. Useful cards that aren't a large deck component, but if they end up in some winning deck, they will skyrocket. Mark the words.

Considering we already saw that with Grindstone, it's hardly a startling revelation/prophecy.

[Aggro_zombies]

).

I propose that this picture be made into an emoticon for the Source, using the code :derp:.

[Ebinsugewa]

I assume things like Scroll Rack

[ykpon]

Ebinsugewa, one day they will unban Land Tax etc.

[MattH]

I propose that this picture be made into an emoticon for the Source, using the code :derp:.

I hotlinked it from goodgamery.com, who actually drew the original picture, so I'd clear it with them first.

[Ebinsugewa]

Ebinsugewa, one day they will unban Land Tax etc.

Who the hell cares? TaxRack sucks.

[majikal]

I assume things like Scroll Rack and Mox Diamond will start getting silly prices.

Start? SCG is already nearly sold out of Mox Diamond at $50. :\

[mchainmail]

Start? SCG is already nearly sold out of Mox Diamond at $50. :\

Thank god I picked up my set right when I heard Tabernacle was going nuts...

[Raptor]

Start? SCG is already nearly sold out of Mox Diamond at $50. :\

You forgot to mention that the mox diamond is in chinese.
Otherwise, it's 30$.

[georgjorge]

Does this mean I changed the market when I decided to sell those Forces? I did unload them lately since I needed a house down payment. I didn't notice any difference in price when they sold from the first to the last ones. Guess it didn't make that much of a difference. Did you notice that large influx of cards back into the market? I doubt it.

Well it would be absurd if one individual could have a noticeable influence on the price of a card for such a widespread game, but that's like saying voters don't have any influence on the outcome of a vote because look, you voted Ralph Nader in the last election and he still didn't win. You have a certain share of influence on the price, as does everyone, and it's your own responsibility how you use it.

That doesn't mean I think it's bad to hoard cards - haven't thought enough about it, to be honest - but your logic is flawed here.

[andrew77]

Well it would be absurd if one individual could have a noticeable influence on the price of a card for such a widespread game, but that's like saying voters don't have any influence on the outcome of a vote because look, you voted Ralph Nader in the last election and he still didn't win. You have a certain share of influence on the price, as does everyone, and it's your own responsibility how you use it.

That doesn't mean I think it's bad to hoard cards - haven't thought enough about it, to be honest - but your logic is flawed here.

It really isn't that hard to influence prices of cards. Ebay plays a huge roll and considering that only a fraction of people actually use eBay, but infinitely more base their values off of ebay means that if you decided you wanted to win the next 20 tabernacles regardless of price it would be easy to push them up to $250 or $300. For whatever reason magic players also all seem to love jumping on the same bandwagon. For months nobody wanted goyfs at $30 and then within a few weeks it hit $50. Tabernacle also had seem a lot of play doing well at SCG Philly and Charlotte, but until 43 lands top 8'ed in St Louis (seriously wtf? St Louis? Since when if the Midwest the scene of competitive legacy?) the price was pretty constant at $120.

[dahcmai]

It is actually possible to influence a card's price. I know from experience of driving Sea Drake for quite a while. Yeah, I know I caused a lot of that. I noticed Faerie Stompy and hoarded up them up with my own being the only actual ones you could buy on Ebay for a while. I just outbid everyone myself and would raise the price to accommodate the price I bought them at. Eventually, it had gone up over triple in price and then I flooded it all with a bunch of 7 day ones. Probably had that going for 6 months or so. It was funny when Troll and Toad messaged me about it wondering what I was doing. I'm sure they had a laugh.

I don't think it ever came back down too much. It was easy enough to do since people didn't seem to have a lot of them trying to cash in on it. I tried to do it with Mana Drain (larger profit if it worked) and they flooded out of the woodworks when the price started rising and I couldn't keep up. I barely broke even from trying that.

[caiomarcos]

It is actually possible to influence a card's price. I know from experience of driving Sea Drake for quite a while. Yeah, I know I caused a lot of that.

I hate you!

[Philipp2293]

I hate you!

How many Sea Drakes did you have to buy and at what price did you start buying? Or is this secret business Information you don't want to reveal?

[caiomarcos]

How many Sea Drakes did you have to buy and at what price did you start buying? Or is this secret business Information you don't want to reveal?

It's not about Sea Drakes or any specific card. It's about the practice of driving the market of cards for your advantage only. Such actions are actually forbidden and punishable in other markets. So yeah, I hate him for being selfish.

If he alone could drive the price of Sea Drakes, I now believe that him with his 150+ Force of Will and a dozen other people doing the same can drive the price of Forces. That's not a good thing and that's probably the worse thing in Legacy, even worse than Tarmogoyf.