@hiyouthere:
Cool analysis. By adding more copies, you're scaling the probabilities that these different draws happen. Your analysis does a great job at doing that, but it doesn't address the main debating point: Is it worth giving up some probability of drawing a Vial in order to avoid drawing multiple Vials.
You can show another spreadsheet to compile this Bayesian problem (I had done it earlier), but the reader's digest version is this:
If 2 Vials in hand is better than 0 Vials, then you definitely want 4 Vials maindeck, since multiples don't hurt that much. Merfolk is an example of this. They run a lot of dudes, can really abuse the tempo off of Vial, and with cards like Standstill can abuse it further, so they would probably rather even see 2 Vials than 0 in a game.
If 2 Vials in hand is equal to or slightly worse than 0 Vials, then you probably want 3-4 Vials maindeck. In this case, you're just trying to maximize the probability of drawing exactly 1 Vial in a reasonable period of time, and the function is maximized at just over 3 Vials. But since you obviously can't pick a fraction of a Vial, we'll go with 3 or 4.
If 2 Vials in hand is quite a bit worse than 0 Vials, then you probably want 2-3 Vials maindeck, since this puts more weight on avoiding multiples.
The more multiple Vials hurt relative to not having any, the fewer copies you want. The better Vial is (i.e. the difference between exactly 1 and 0), the more copies you want, but the key difference is really the difference between multiple copies of Vial and zero copies of Vial.
An extremely good card that's so bad in multiples that you'd rather not see any than see multiples of it should probably go in between 2 and 3 copies. Vial falls into that category.
Another example that uses the same logic (though I haven't seen someone really think it through to this level) is Fireblast in Sligh. You really, really, *really* don't want to see two copies, but seeing one copy is amazing. What do you do? You run 2 copies.
Or Sylvan Library in Zoo is the same thing. One copy is absolutely amazing, in any matchup. But the second copy is completely dead. Drawing 2 is worse than not seeing any, so 4 copies is wrong and 2-3 copies is right. Further studies show that 3 copies is probably the right call.
Of course, in the case of Vial this is greatly complicated by the fact that Vial is very sensitive to the number of creatures that you're running in the deck. UW Tempo runs 15-17 effective vialables (Fathom Seer isn't very vialable). If you cut a Vial, it's replaced by some creature that can be vialed in, making the remaining Vials stronger.
4 Vials is almost certainly wrong because you would dip down to 15 Vialable creatures, which really defeats the purpose of wanting Aether Vials so much. With just 15 Vialables, Vial would be noticeably weaker.
Likewise 1 Vial is also almost certainly wrong because Vial is a very strong card and you can definitely get away with 2 copies without having to see much (if any) multiple draws. Playing only 1 doesn't take advantage of Vial's power.
But between 2 and 3 Vials, it's a pretty tough call. Jeff prefers a strong endgame, more options, and fewer risks. I'm more of the gambling type (I have to be based on my play skill -- if I don't take risks, I'd never win a game), so I'll take the slightly more risky gamble of running three copies so that I'll draw both more single copies of Vial and more multiples. It definitely makes the deck easier to play for me, particularly since I'm a more aggressive early-midgame player, I'm happy with three Vials.
@ Forbiddian: So you're playing one or even two creatures less than your friend? Can you share a decklist, please?
Btw, I'd like to play Karakas, but I am unsure about lands... Is 18 lands too much? And if I take out one land to incorporate Karakas, than - what to cut. I fear to take out Plains, because than I play more fetches and crap than real lands. One fetch? Will it collide with Wayfarer and screw our color managment?
Was this even a real Skeggi's hero?Originally Posted by Skeggi
Lol. You're my hero.
The only real strength, the Iona thing, isn't that great, because they'll probably name white anyways.
I belive I get one my four Wyfarers and/or three of my Vials to play before Iona.
Was this even a real Skeggi's hero?Lol. You're my hero
This is assuming that you are getting your wayfarer into play while reanimator stares it down. I don't know how many people would risk the possibility of giving you that land search or risk whether you run karakas. This sounds really jumbled but really what I mean is that I do not see your opponent playing Iona if you have an active wayfarer. That seems like it would just be looking for trouble.
Well, the other reanimate targets I can easily StP/Curfew/race, but Iona on white stops most of my deck. Also Karakas >>>>>>>>> 20/20
Was this even a real Skeggi's hero?Lol. You're my hero
I cannot tell if you are implying Marit Lage as the 20/20? I have been playing quite a bit of legacy and I have never actually had to play against it. I have seen one decklist so far that incorporates it and that is eva green which I don't think is that bad of a matchup. And yeah I guess if you run the sideboard from page 45 with the curfews you might do better against reanimator. I ran the list on the primer at my last event. It worked out well enough.
I'm playing 1 Vial and 1 Vexing Sphinx where Jeff plays 2 Vexing Sphinx.
I would post an updated decklist, but I don't really have a good sideboard. Also, there's a discrepancy between what I'm playing in RL and what I recommend because I haven't had a chance to trade for the stuff that I need.
By any means try Wing Shards. Been awesome for me on many occasions. My recent win against Zoo involved Wing Shards for 3 at game2, where he was completely blown out.
Can you post some videos of this, or at least describe how this happened?
Yes, "20/20" is Marit Lage. There are few ppl who play the deck and believe me, it is quite annoying all those Grim Discoveries, Gifts Ungiven into Grim Discovery/Regrowth/stuff. So I rozhodnout.eng that I shall use Karakas. The most funny is that I can fight the great swines (20/20, Iona) even preboard for cost not worse than adapting one of my lands from basic one to "I cost 50 bucks" one.
Last edited by Aleksandr; 05-15-2010 at 02:22 PM. Reason: worse =/= worth, commas that change the meaning of sentence, overall nonsenses...
Was this even a real Skeggi's hero?Lol. You're my hero
It probably involves Vial tricks. I played a match against a friend with DnT when he was testing Wing Shards (I didn't know). I helix his Avenger, then move to attack phase, he activates vial dropping Grunt, to which I responded with a PtE. Then my Goyf, Ape, Nacatl enter the red zone only to eat a Wing Shards.
UWT might be able to utilize it given that UWT can cast even more Instants than DnT can. Then again, UW Tempo usually runs on a much lower land count, making Wing Shards seems much harder to play with. I'd also like to see some development in this variation.
EDIT:
Agreed. The slots are definitely put to better use already.
Luck is a residue of design.
I'm an aspiring Psychedelic Trance musician. Please feel free to enjoy my sense of life:
http://soundcloud.com/vacrix
Expect me or die. I play SI.
Well on the curfew topic there are many times when reanimator will have that second turn reanimate and the curfew will bounce just their creature. I think that it is a great card and that it deals with the new jedi erkin deck. That also seems to be a great idea. Deal with their threats on the board instead of trying to grave hate them out.
Agreed. I do like the idea, though, of 3 Curfew, 1 Seal of Removal, which facilitates Etutor-->Seal. It might not be playable against Leviathan, but its a great play against Iona. Is that the consensus, or is everyone still running 4 Curfew? I recall Jeff testing that configuration a while back but I haven't read anything about it since.
Luck is a residue of design.
I'm an aspiring Psychedelic Trance musician. Please feel free to enjoy my sense of life:
http://soundcloud.com/vacrix
Expect me or die. I play SI.
Out of my last 9 matches, I won exactly one. I did not count the tenth match, which was a bye in round one.
I've been losing to ANT, Belcher, Dream Halls, Reanimator, Natural Order Bant, and some other lists I don't recall any more. The only win I scored was against mono-black rats. "Cannot be blocked by walls"-rats. I don't even want to check out my rating these days…
Things is, I just don't see how in the world Reanimator could ever be a positive matchup. Is it just me, or is it that they ALWAYS go like Thoughtseize (pulling some counter), Entomb, Reanimate something really ugly, and then counter the only answer I got left (Curfew, for example)? That's how it went in 4 matches versus UB Reanimator for me (1-2, 0-2, 1-2, 0-2). How do you stand a chance against this ugly, mean fucker of a deck?
There are quite a few situations where you can achieve just that, like the above mentioned vial example, where they bolt/path your blocker. Usually you can achieve at least StP/BS + Shards to go 2 for 1. What happened in that game, is that my opponent casted QPM first main phase to blow the jitte on by blocker, I brainstormed and Shardsed for two 4/5 Lynxes and 6/6 KoTR.
Against Merfolk, the last game I was able to do a whopping Shards for 4. He casted two merfolks to tap down my blockers with Reejery, then went for alpha strike with ton of lords. I StPed a guy, and then Wing Sharded all his shit, next turn j'quip and his board is empty.
In all cases that sounds like a great swing, but in both situations you had 4 mana open. 3 of which were colored. I have not been playing this deck as long as some of the people in this thread, but 4 mana does not usually happen too often. I happens really late game for me but on 4th turn I do not think there are more than 5 games I can remember when I had 4 mana available.
It seems like wing shards requires some pretty unlikely conditions to be fulfilled, only one of which is having as much mana open as described.
Also, your opponent must find it profitable to attack with many of their creatures, which is not always the case with zoo, since you may control a creature that is outclassing theirs, or they may be trying to use exalted.
Additionally, it's necessary for you to either have a brainstorm, or for you to have swords AND your opponent must have enough creatures that the extra copy of wing shards doesn't go to waste. If not, then you must set up a situation where your opponent simply can't do better than to cast his spells first main phase.
I think you are using Wing Shards in the board, because its often a dead card in preboard games. Could you post your sideboard and explain your changed sideboard plan against zoo & co?
Its often a 2 for 1 when you play it correctly. Even then the board slots could probably be put to better use.
On the topic of board cards... What are your thoughts on Divert? For U you can redirect a removal spell at the opponents own creature (against Zoo), effectively a 2 for 1. Its also funny against Reanimator, redirecting their Reanimate to get your Mom (no pun intended) from the grave.
Luck is a residue of design.
I'm an aspiring Psychedelic Trance musician. Please feel free to enjoy my sense of life:
http://soundcloud.com/vacrix
Expect me or die. I play SI.
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