[Deck] Dreadstill - Enter the Fist

[The Atog Lord]

I have tested both Predict and Standstill. Standstill is better. But it is also more difficult to play properly. If played correctly, Standstill will generate better results.

[Dark Ritual]

Standstill can get pitched to FoW if the board state is bad. Or shuffled away with brainstorm if its a dead card. It's a hard card to play optimally but I advocate its inclusion because drawing 3 cards is a lot better than drawing 2 cards and you know what predict needs to be useful? A brainstorm or sensei's divining top which you will not always have in hand so you'll have to wait until you get one of those cards to be able to utilize predict to draw 2. Forcing a turn one threat then dropping standstill is a huge tempo gain or you can stifle their first fetch then drop standstill due to them not being able to play any spells without that one mana. Also of note if they drop nothing turn 1 then try to drop a two drop turn 2 and it gets spell snared then you can drop standstill this being an on the draw case of standstill being a bomb. And I like ancestral recall in legacy.

[bowvamp]

@keys:
Wait, did you literally just count the advantages vs. disadvantages? My point was not meant to be that each of the advantages were equally advantageous, and each of the dis-advantages were equally dis-advantageous. My point was not to pitch one card over the other, rather it was to have a concise list of advantages and disadvantages for each card followed by a description of why I choose standstill.

EDIT: since you were counting the advantages vs. disadvanteges in your (biased) post I will comment on them below:

Advantages:
1. Draws three cards instead of two
2. Refreshes the top three for SDT/Brainstorm
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a board that is in your favor or neutral (not necessarily, just a prospective board position, if standstill buys you the time to stabilize the board with manlands/wastelock/other in the future, it has done its job)
2. Weakness against decks with fast creatures (Zoo, Survival), Vial (Goblins, Merfolk, D&T), or more man-lands/Wastelands (Landstill) (true)
3. Pumps Goyf (assuming you're not playing Goyf) (how much does this actually matter vs. the card advantage difference)
4. Flash creatures can blow you out (I understand where you're getting that, but who plays flash creatures? and clique costs 1 more mana, it's pretty obvious when they're tempo thresh and they've left three mana open after you've done stuff like popped a fetch, basically if you get into this situation make sure you've got stp)
5. Sorcery speed (doesn't matter, at all, why would you consider not casting your draw? if you need more options during their turn, you'd still cast standstill)
6. Allows opponent to regain tempo lost from Stifle/Wasteland (umm actually I'd call this neutral because every turn of tempo that they're gaining, you also will be hitting your land drops and with wastelock down you pretty much make it an advantage) (not to mention it'll refill your hands which will be better for the dreadstill player)

Predict
Advantages:
1. Refreshes the top three
2. Instant speed (doesn't matter, it's draw therefore the only difference would be vs. discard) (if it were about filtering it would be different)
3. Can be used on your opponent to mill SDT, a card tutored with E Tutor/Sterling Grove, or Doomsday piles (honestly, didn't think of that, but how will they cast those cards if you've got a standstill up)
4. Can be cycled if conditions aren't met (this is a disadvantage, when it's cycled that means it is no longer better than... any cantrip... to this deck) (also, it can get countered, although idk why anyone would do that)
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a way to manipulate the top 3 (SDT, Jace, Brainstorm)
2. Draws 2 cards instead of 3

[keys]

My responses in red:

@keys:
Wait, did you literally just count the advantages vs. disadvantages? My point was not meant to be that each of the advantages were equally advantageous, and each of the dis-advantages were equally dis-advantageous. I'm not assuming every advantage or disadvantage is weighted equally. My point was not to pitch one card over the other, rather it was to have a concise list of advantages and disadvantages for each card followed by a description of why I choose standstill. My list is just like your list, except more exhaustive.

EDIT: since you were counting the advantages vs. disadvanteges in your (biased) post I will comment on them below: How am I biased?I am not personally invested in either of these cards, and these are not just my observations.

Advantages:
1. Draws three cards instead of two
2. Refreshes the top three for SDT/Brainstorm
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a board that is in your favor or neutral (not necessarily, just a prospective board position, if standstill buys you the time to stabilize the board with manlands/wastelock/other in the future, it has done its job) - I'm not sure what you're getting at with a "prospective board position". Do you have any examples of when you would play Standstill when the board position is not presently neutral or in your favor, but is likely be favorable in the future? I think what you're referring to is a neutral board position (which, given the construction of your deck, is often easier to abuse, but not always).
2. Weakness against decks with fast creatures (Zoo, Survival), Vial (Goblins, Merfolk, D&T), or more man-lands/Wastelands (Landstill) (true)
3. Pumps Goyf (assuming you're not playing Goyf) (how much does this actually matter vs. the card advantage difference) - I'm not weighting advantages and disadvantages at this point, just listing.
4. Flash creatures can blow you out (I understand where you're getting that, but who plays flash creatures? and clique costs 1 more mana, it's pretty obvious when they're tempo thresh and they've left three mana open after you've done stuff like popped a fetch, basically if you get into this situation make sure you've got stp) - Clique is the 2nd most popular creature in CounterTop, and Spellstutter is played in a variety of decks as well. It's worth mentioning, because it has the potential to ruin you.
5. Sorcery speed (doesn't matter, at all, why would you consider not casting your draw? if you need more options during their turn, you'd still cast standstill) - No because you have to tap out to play it in your main phase, so if your opponent runs out a Survival the next turn, your only outs are FoW and Daze. If it was instant speed, you could leave mana open for Spell Snare.
6. Allows opponent to regain tempo lost from Stifle/Wasteland (umm actually I'd call this neutral because every turn of tempo that they're gaining, you also will be hitting your land drops and with wastelock down you pretty much make it an advantage) (not to mention it'll refill your hands which will be better for the dreadstill player). (Why do you keep saying "wastelock"? This term is generally used to describe Waste + Loam/Crucible.) The deck has a strong land destruction plan in Stifle/Waste, but playing Standstill right afterwards gives up that Tempo gain by allowing your opponent to draw/play more lands. A full hand is not necessarily better for the Dreadstill player (combo players, for example, gain considerably from being able to sculpt their hand). Unless you're applying pressure with a Mishra's (and sometimes even then), a smart player will just let you draw until you have 7, and then Brainstorm/Bolt you/etc. in your end step.

Predict
Advantages:
1. Refreshes the top three
2. Instant speed (doesn't matter, it's draw therefore the only difference would be vs. discard) (if it were about filtering it would be different) - Really?? Maybe you should post in format discussion asking why instant speed draw is superior to sorcery speed, because I don't have the time and space to explain here.
3. Can be used on your opponent to mill SDT, a card tutored with E Tutor/Sterling Grove, or Doomsday piles (honestly, didn't think of that, but how will they cast those cards if you've got a standstill up) - Standstill doesn't prevent anyone from casting anything! You're assuming Standstill will give you a counter.
4. Can be cycled if conditions aren't met (this is a disadvantage, when it's cycled that means it is no longer better than... any cantrip... to this deck) (also, it can get countered, although idk why anyone would do that) - How is the option a disadvantage? If Standstill had "1U: discard *this*, mill the top card of your library, draw a card" it would certainly be better.
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a way to manipulate the top 3 (SDT, Jace, Brainstorm)
2. Draws 2 cards instead of 3

[sdematt]

A friend of mine was playing this deck, but very differently from the style we're going. He was playing it in a 3C Counterbalance list with Tarmogoyfs, Dark Confidants, and a bunch of other stuff. It wasn't as oriented on getting Dreadnought, it was playing more like a Counterbalance based deck, with the Dreadnought-Stifle combo in it. It played rather well against the majority of the field, as with most Counterbalance decks, and he said it was nice having other threats and answers rather than riding Dreadnought to victory (hopefully).

I'll try to get the list from him and post it, just to show another direction that he's gone.

-Matt

[Jackehehe]

A friend of mine was playing this deck, but very differently from the style we're going. He was playing it in a 3C Counterbalance list with Tarmogoyfs, Dark Confidants, and a bunch of other stuff. It wasn't as oriented on getting Dreadnought, it was playing more like a Counterbalance based deck, with the Dreadnought-Stifle combo in it. It played rather well against the majority of the field, as with most Counterbalance decks, and he said it was nice having other threats and answers rather than riding Dreadnought to victory (hopefully).

I'll try to get the list from him and post it, just to show another direction that he's gone.

-Matt

Feed us with this information! Arnold says naoUWW!

[keys]

A friend of mine was playing this deck, but very differently from the style we're going. He was playing it in a 3C Counterbalance list with Tarmogoyfs, Dark Confidants, and a bunch of other stuff. It wasn't as oriented on getting Dreadnought, it was playing more like a Counterbalance based deck, with the Dreadnought-Stifle combo in it. It played rather well against the majority of the field, as with most Counterbalance decks, and he said it was nice having other threats and answers rather than riding Dreadnought to victory (hopefully).

I'll try to get the list from him and post it, just to show another direction that he's gone.

-Matt

Goyf can be really good in a UGR version with Firespout, for the reasons you mentioned.

However, I don't agree with adding green to the deck if you're already playing black and/or white. It makes Perish worse and gives your opponent free Submerges, which is a problem against mono blue Merfolk and UG Madness when you're trying to protect Nought or Peacekeeper.

[sclabman]

As someone who would play the Ur version with the occasional black splash strictly for Perish, and also someone who is not all that fond of the deck objectively/competitively (rather it nourishes the inner timmy in me)... I see this thread and it's bullshit. I wish people would stop talking about Predict vs. Standstill.

After some testing, I like both. I ran Predict as a supplement to Dark Confidant and makes the deck much more tempo-oriented and plays a "Draw, Go" fashion a lot while chipping away with Bob and answering everything the opponent plays. The Standstill version will always be classic but it's definitely a different deck style. I wish people would stop bickering and just playtest both versions rather than speculating.

This thread is getting NOWHERE. Both are valid options. As of now I prefer Predict because it's novel to me but tomorrow it's damn likely I'll throw my Standstills back in.

[keys]

The Predict versus Standstill discussion needs to take place every few months. Don't get put off by it; it's just part of the evolution of the deck.

You're right that both are valid options. I think Predict is better with Confidant in a 3 color shell, whereas Standstill is strong in a UR(g) build with full sets of Mishra's/Wastelands.

[Tangle.Wire]

Since i posted some pages ago without getting any notification i thought predict would be awful too, but had great results playing it in the UGR Goofy Dreadstill.

[randomly_anonymous]

Standstill can get pitched to FoW if the board state is bad. Or shuffled away with brainstorm if its a dead card. It's a hard card to play optimally but I advocate its inclusion because drawing 3 cards is a lot better than drawing 2 cards and you know what predict needs to be useful? A brainstorm or sensei's divining top which you will not always have in hand so you'll have to wait until you get one of those cards to be able to utilize predict to draw 2. Forcing a turn one threat then dropping standstill is a huge tempo gain or you can stifle their first fetch then drop standstill due to them not being able to play any spells without that one mana. Also of note if they drop nothing turn 1 then try to drop a two drop turn 2 and it gets spell snared then you can drop standstill this being an on the draw case of standstill being a bomb. And I like ancestral recall in legacy.

Predict is easier to play optimally and can still pitch to Force or get shuffled away with Brainstorm/Jace. This entire argument for the side of Standstill is based on the fact that "drawing 3 cards is better than drawing 2 cards". Without prejudice against all Standstill-lovers in any way, this is why I think it's a poor argument.

1. In the context of Stifle-Nought, card advantage isn't necessarily as important as tempo gains or retarding the opponent's board development. Like many people have said before, dropping Standstill gives the opponent time to rebuild and forces you to spend mana during your main phase.

2. Unless they're REALLY in a pinch, they can just wait until you have atleast five and pop it EOT. In this case, it seems more like you casted Recall with 7 cards in hand and then passed the turn. Even if you had five cards, popping the Standstill then is about the same as Predict (draw 2 and throw away one).

3. Think about the situations that would warrant the optimal playing of Standstill. You would only drop Standstill when you have a better board position, or if you're holding onto man lands, or if you have top. Playing standstill also means that either you're assuming you will draw countermagic or you already have countermagic in hand (for, as an example, if they play Survival). In addition, your opponent can't have Vial, wasteland, manlands, library manipulation, or some other way of cheating things into play. On the other hand, optimal playing of Predict requires your having Jace, Brainstorm, or Top, or somehow knowing the top card of either player's libraries. I think it is quite obvious that the situations which consititute optimal play for Predict are more likely to occur than those which warrant the optimal playing of Standstill. Most important is the fact that Standstill REQUIRES a good board position to work in your favour while Predict can be played even if the optimal conditions aren't met.

4. This point has also been brought up previously. Standstill is sorcery speed and Predict is instant speed. The *only* argument for playing Standstill over Predict from this point of view is that Standstill draws 1 more card. But as I have already mentioned before, in a deck which values tempo over card advantage AND has can situationally handle Predict better than Standstill, this gain of one card can be considered negligible.

To all those out there playing Standstill over Predict, I don't mean to offend or to deride. This is a forum meant to develop this deck, and if you feel that playing Predict over Standstill makes the deck worse, then by all means don't play it. Those of us who are advocating playing Predict over Standstill obviously have our reasons for doing so (no one would knowingly play a card that makes the deck worse).

I just feel that if you look at Standstill vs Predict NOT in a vaccuum but in the context of Stifle-Nought, Predict seems to be a better card.

[lorddotm]

I have tested both Predict and Standstill. Standstill is better. But it is also more difficult to play properly. If played correctly, Standstill will generate better results.

Standstill is not a hard card to play. If they have threats, don't play Standstill. If they don't have anything going on, play Standstill.

How is that a challenging card to play?

[keys]

Standstill is not a hard card to play. If they have threats, don't play Standstill. If they don't have anything going on, play Standstill.


How is that a challenging card to play?

He means the conditions for playing and triggering Standstill favorably are more challenging than the conditions for Predict, not that the decision making process is any more difficult.

[bowvamp]

"I counted 2 advantages and 6 disadvantages for Standstill, versus 4 advantages and 2 disadvantages for Predict. See my list above." - keys
"I'm not assuming every advantage or disadvantage is weighted equally." - keys
Do you not understand that your logic doesn't work if they aren't weighted equally?

Prospective board position:

Turn 3:
You -> Standstill, Goyf, no cards in hand (Standstill was your last)
Opponent -> Goblin Lackey, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Piledriver

It was the right play to put standstill on the board. Your current board position favors your opponents, but dropping Standstill, it will get progressively better because they will be walled out and you can develop your manabase. Currently the only way the opponent can save his board position (get it where he wants it to be is by playing spells, therefore making standstill non-situational)

I understand the difference between instant and sorcery speed draw. It's just that, well, the times you'd see the difference doesn't deserve a full two (not sure if they're equally weighted) points off of standstill using your metric. It would be a little like making the stifle/wasteland argument be "doesn't allow your opponent to gain tempo" as a pro for predict in addition to standstill.

"How is the option a disadvantage? If Standstill had "1U: discard *this*, mill the top card of your library, draw a card" it would certainly be better." - keys
It certainly would be better if this were the case, however, predict as I see it would make standstill read the following way:
1U
Standstill
Enchantment
Whenever a player plays a spell, that player flips two coins.
If both of them are heads, that player draws four cards.
Otherwise, that player draws one.

This is clearly the effect Predict + Standstill would have.
Predict is possibly one of the worst cantrips (yes, not actual draw) in the game for this deck. It's not like MUC where you run 23+ islands to begin with, in this deck you actually have to be even more situational to guarantee the number of cards you draw even goes so far as to net you an advantage.
I'd suggest that we run Mulldrifter before Predict because then, at least Spell Pierce doesn't hit it, and it doesn't require card filtering to be of use.

[sclabman]

"I counted 2 advantages and 6 disadvantages for Standstill, versus 4 advantages and 2 disadvantages for Predict. See my list above." - keys
"I'm not assuming every advantage or disadvantage is weighted equally." - keys
Do you not understand that your logic doesn't work if they aren't weighted equally?

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH

I'd suggest that we run Scyscribing before predict because then the guaranteed +1 CA is always there and extras can be FOW'd. Not to mention, it's uncounterable. It also has extra versatility for the super-duper late game. This doesn't mean I'm suggesting Scyscribing.

http://magiccards.info/query?q=skysc...v=card&s=cname

Are you serious? Posts like this are the reason why this debate is so tired and pointless. What kind of personal affront did Predict commit to you? Likewise to keys regarding standstill. Seriously people just use what works for you, it's resembling a religious or political debate up in here.

In an effort to steer the thread away from this stupidity: How many 'noughts are people running nowadays? I've been going with 3 but I'm thinking about going back up to 4 so the t2 12/12 threat option happens more often, especially with decks like Vengevival and Merfolk running around that can't deal with it easily. I have run as few as two with a Goyf-ed version of the deck, but then it didn't really feel like Dreadstill anymore.

[Antonius]

Predict is like Standstill but for CB decks. If you can't get there with your lock, you can still try to blow them out with CA + efficient removal. Maybe it's not the right fit for dreadstill but in UWr CBtop, it's amazing.

[kingsey]

Would you guys say in the current meta u/b/w dreadstill is a better choice then pro-bant?

I enjoying playing counterbalance and nopro has been good to me so far. I do like the fact tho that this deck can take out shakey mana bases with wasteland and stifle.

[keys]

"I counted 2 advantages and 6 disadvantages for Standstill, versus 4 advantages and 2 disadvantages for Predict. See my list above." - keys
"I'm not assuming every advantage or disadvantage is weighted equally." - keys
Do you not understand that your logic doesn't work if they aren't weighted equally?

No, you keep assuming I mean things I don't. To assume makes an Ass out of U and Me. I can list things AND not have them be weighted. These aren't mutually exclusive concepts! I did not mean to imply that because I've listed more advantages for Predict that it is objectively the better card. I have many points to consider and I thought it was prudent to list them in an organized fashion.

Prospective board position:

Turn 3:
You -> Standstill, Goyf, no cards in hand (Standstill was your last)
Opponent -> Goblin Lackey, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Piledriver

It was the right play to put standstill on the board. Your current board position favors your opponents, but dropping Standstill, it will get progressively better because they will be walled out and you can develop your manabase. Currently the only way the opponent can save his board position (get it where he wants it to be is by playing spells, therefore making standstill non-situational)

This is not an unfavorable position. It could be described as neutral.

I understand the difference between instant and sorcery speed draw. It's just that, well, the times you'd see the difference doesn't deserve a full two (not sure if they're equally weighted) points off of standstill using your metric. It would be a little like making the stifle/wasteland argument be "doesn't allow your opponent to gain tempo" as a pro for predict in addition to standstill.

I don't have a "metric" so I don't have a clue what you're talking about. It's not a game where each card scores a certain number of points. These concepts are subjective.

"How is the option a disadvantage? If Standstill had "1U: discard *this*, mill the top card of your library, draw a card" it would certainly be better." - keys
It certainly would be better if this were the case, however, predict as I see it would make standstill read the following way:
1U
Standstill
Enchantment
Whenever a player plays a spell, that player flips two coins.
If both of them are heads, that player draws four cards.
Otherwise, that player draws one.

This is clearly the effect Predict + Standstill would have.
Predict is possibly one of the worst cantrips (yes, not actual draw) in the game for this deck. It's not like MUC where you run 23+ islands to begin with, in this deck you actually have to be even more situational to guarantee the number of cards you draw even goes so far as to net you an advantage.
I'd suggest that we run Mulldrifter before Predict because then, at least Spell Pierce doesn't hit it, and it doesn't require card filtering to be of use.

WTF? I don't want to flame you but this is completely nonsensical. Evoked Mulldrifter costs 1 more, is horrible with Confidant and Counterbalance, doesn't refresh the top three, and is not instant speed, so ...no.

Sigh.

@sclabman: I don't have anything against Standstill! I just think Predict is better with Confidant in the Uwb shell. It's also a much more interesting debate topic than the optimal number of Noughts to run in the deck.

[[PMP]Krevvy]

So this is the list i am running right now and since my meta is mostly merfolk, survival, goblins, and then some storm this is the list i am running.

Also to add to the predict to standstill i think its a meta call more then anything.

So here is the list:
--Lands--
2 Island
4 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
3 Tundra
3 Underground Sea
3 Wasteland
2 Mishra's Factory
1 Plains
1 Academy Ruins
-- Creatures--
2 Trinket Mage
3 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Dark Confidant
-- Spells --
4 Stifle
3 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Trickbind
2 Engineered Explosives
4 Force of Will
2 Daze
4 Brainstorm
3 Counterbalance
2 Spell Snare
3 Predict

-- Sideboard--
1 Pithing Needle
1 Relic of Progenitus
3 Peacekeeper
3 Swords to Plowshares
2 Perish
2 Vindicate
3 Spell Pierce

I have also been looking at dropping the counterbalances from the list and going more counter type control or something else, thoughts?

[Rood]

Predict or Standstill can both generate pretty decent card advantage. I mean I can see why some would want to play Predict over Standstill since it's instant speed and requires less to generate off of. Standstill warps the game down to the game speed that this deck wants to play at times which is incredible slow. A resolved Standstill is going to make your oponent play alot more passively granting you extra turns to hit land drops and spin with Top in alot of situations. Predict while being instant speed cannot slow the game speed of a game down which is problematic when you need the game to slow down a bit.