I was doing the math for how going up to 61 cards affects Dredge, and I stumbled upon (apparently, for the second time) something I wasn't expecting.Originally Posted by jares
I like that you pointed out that my 61st card might actually be the 4th Citadel... that actually made me think that I might be able to go down to 60 cards by cutting the Citadel (and putting-in the Darkblast). I'll try and test to see if that might make the list a bit more tight. I originally played the 16th land because I wanted to maximize being able to draw a Gold Land in my opening hand, given that I increased the number of cards that require a Gold Land by adding Faithless Looting (though the count was really just increased by 1). I also figured that increasing the land count could also help with possibly flashing-back a Faithless Looting in grind-out games, and so far, it's a side-effect has been surprisingly pleasant. Still, I might benefit more from tightening the list to 60 cards though.
Regarding DR in the main, I've become more and more comfortable with not having it there. I still find that I definitely need it in the SB for particular match-ups, specifically, in the match-ups where I'll be able to win instantly by bringing an FKZ or Iona (or any other DR target) into play. For reference, I used to have 2 DR (1 FKZ and 1 Sphinx) in the main, then it went down to 1 DR (no DR targets). Both these previous iterations have led me to relative success - the success of going DR-less in the main remains to be seen. I'll find out soon enough in the following weekend.
Cheers,
jares
Dredge is built in such a way that only a subset of the cards in the deck are useful when drawn into your opening hand - the rest become useful only when in the graveyard (or from the library). Because of this, the addition of each card (given that the added card is one that you would want to draw in your opening hand) in the population (minimum of 60 cards) negatively affects the probabilities of drawing into this subset, but positively affects the probabilities of everything else that you don't want to draw in your opening hand. In comparison, the average deck will have the entire deck be affected negatively. The following quote is an example of how the numbers turned out:
I've also found that the numbers above are slightly erroneous - in favor of adding the 61st card. I've found that the total probability gain (for the cards that you want in your opening hand) upon adding the 61st card is closer to 1.5%, rather than just 0.61% (as quoted above). I haven't had the time to also do the numbers for the positive gain for the cards that you do NOT want in your opening hand, but I expect that to be in the same vicinity. Having considered all that, it's worth pointing out that the only cards that you would want in both your opening hand and in your graveyard are Dredgers (with the exception of Faithless Looting) - which means that the best way to improve these numbers is for the 61st card to be a Dredger. These are small numbers, ranging from 1-4%, but these are also the numbers we consider when going up to 12 Dredgers from 11, or when adding another land to the list of Gold Lands.I have been pondering the above list for some time now, and I've recently considered going up to 61 cards by adding a 13 Dredger in the form of Darkblast. I haven't done enough testing on this, but the numbers I've gathered seem to support this change:
- The probability of drawing a dredger in your opening hand increased by 2.19%
- The probability of drawing a draw spell in your opening hand decreased by only 0.48% (less than 1%)
- The probability of drawing a discard outlet in your opening hand decreased by only 0.62%
(less than 1%)- The probability of drawing a land in your opening hand decreased by only 0.48%
(less than 1%)- This might be a fallacious assumption, but 2.19% > 1.58% (total decrease in the three probabilities), and that's good news to me
- I don't have the numbers yet, but I'm sure that it also increases the rate of successful Chain Dredging.
Kindly note that these numbers are based on the list quoted above. Further testing will surely help make these findings conclusive or otherwise. Any additional help with the list will be highly appreciated.
Cheers,
jares
That's that for the considerations regarding the opening hand. But then there's also the consideration of weighing the probabilities of dredging into these cards, which I expect to be much more negligible given the rate at which Dredge is able to mill itself (the sample size for the opening hand is 7, while the average rate of dredging might be somewhere around 10-12). In comparison, the average deck will only be able to naturally draw through its deck at a much slower rate (Brainstorm being one of the better mechanisms for this, which only does it at a rate of virtually 3 at a time), magnifying the effects of adding even just 1 card.
I'm no expert in doing the math for all these things, but what I've uncovered so far is encouraging, especially because it comes naturally to how the Dredge Archetype is designed. I'd be happy to see if anyone else can come up with some supporting results, or even some data that would disprove these findings and improve the way with which these numbers were brought about.
Cheers,
jares
In addition, concerning the lands...are you talking about exchanging them with coliseum or with spell cards??
Usually, in my experience at least, if I'm boarding in lands I'm boarding out LED's
That's Doctor to you. Dr. Edge.
Replacing leds should be dependant on the match up, right? Or it's a rule for you?
Very nice Deck Tech of Faithless Dredging with Adam Prosak @ StarCityGames.com
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/...redging_w.html
Yikes at that list. Yikes at that sideboard.
Star City even tried to make it sound justifiable for him to run no hate in his sideboard by saying he can hard-cast Angel of Despair. Just, wow.
Disliked its decklist a lot!
By the way, you can follow SCG Cincinnati live here:
http://www.starcitygames.com/events/...incinnati.html
"Very Nice"...? Oo
This is the worst list I saw in a long time...
"Assuming he can find enough land to cast them, though it’s technically possible for his 14 land deck to hardcast Angel of Despair." WTF
Good luck fighting any hate with that sideboard...
Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells
:16:- (See, now Erratic Explosion's a deck)
Legendary Creature - Horror
Haste, Hexproof, Double Strike, Trample
Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells is indestructible.
Permanents you control can't be sacrificed or copied.
Whenever Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells attacks, defending player gets liver cancer (This effect doesn't end at end of turn.)
13/13
Now, really people, I'm serious.
Even if one is a SCG writer, that does NOT mean that he can build and play each and every deck in the format. This article just proves how little everyone knows about the deck.
This is literally the worst built dredge deck I've seen for quite a while. I'm not really sure if I should cry or laugh about it.
Just ridiculous....
lmfao at Dredge being played over Ichorid, some aswesome tech right there. And people wonder why Dredge never places, sigh.
@NecroYawgmoth: It's a good introduction to get Faithless Dredge out there. It might not be best list, but ultimately it's good for Dredge, I guess.
@Izor: I'm not sure if he usually writes for SCG, but that's just a Deck Tech. And there's no reason for you to be mad at it either just because he got that list out, instead of the ones people have been sharing on this forum.
The only good publicity for dredge is no publicity.
The less people know about dredge the better.
Went 3-1 in the swiss with feldmans fearless dredge list and then lost in cut to top 4.
Round 1 - Burn
Turn 1 my opponent goblin guides and doesnt attack with it, so i think im off to an easy win. I lose that game (wtf) but winds of change easily get me the next two. In the final moment of game 3 i have my opponent dead on board. He has nothing in play but a tapped mountain and 1 card in hand. Im on 4 life. If his card is flame rift or fireblast and he topdecks a mountain then i lose. He has 1 fireblast in his graveyard already so math tells me to therapy flame rift, which I hit. His topdeck was lava spike so it didnt really matter but it does further the local legend of me being able to therapy like i have psychic powers.
Round 2 - uw
I do my thang both games
Game one he gets manascrewed and g2 gets flooded
Round 3 - maverick
I dont therapy him when he has only one land because i think hes more likely to gsz for ooze than outright play it but of course he has it - I shouldve scouted his list beforehand to find out how many he played.
Game2 he has a quick crypt for my early action so i hold my firestorm for like 5 turns and get a massive blowout on 4 of his guys - mother, ooze, terravore, and one other. Unfortunately he has an eot enlightened tutor for a crypt to exile all the gas i just discarded.
Round 4 - hive mind
Game one I therapy his intuition-based combo deck and he loses.
Game two my 1/1 putrid imp takes him to 9 but he eventually pacts me to death after i fought through 2 leyline of sanctity, 2 surgical extraction and a faerie macabre.
Game three he doesnt have any hate and therapy rapes him in the bumbum again.
Im second after swiss, the maverick player is first.
Top 4 - burn (not the same one as before)
I mulligan aggressively trying to get fast hands but in both games have no gas after mulling to 5.
I think i shouldve done more testing against burn prior to this event as it was obviously going to be popular due to the scg results and i have no experience with that deck whatsoever.
He got trounced by maverick in the finals, thank god.
Lmk if you have any questions/tips
And yet, somehow, Prosak nailed the number one overall seed in the Top Eight. This is demoralizing to me as a deck-builder.
Christ, this is so awesome. He must have beaten only dead dogs (sorry for the that, UW Stoneblade D:) with his 8-careful study tuned list.
Don't get heated up with SGC articles guys. They all suck. And that comment about Angel of Despair being hardcasted just reminded me of my Breakthrough X=3. Good times.
And Dredge isn't bad at all. You can sacrifice your Ichorid that's being targeted by Swords to Plowshares, get Zombie Tokens and still dredge a little bit. Moreover, isn't it awesome to have both cards that name your archtype in the same list (Ichorid and Dredge)? Pure hotness. /sarcasm
Let your Dredge 6 be: Narco, Narco, Narco, Bridge, Bridge, Dread Return
What really sucks is that I'm running Dredge in Charlotte next week and now I have to pack in more anti-hate and cleanup after Prosak's showing. Dammit.
I might be wrong, but I think that the actual list that was used in the tournament did not have the Dredge card (see link below):
Without the Dredge card, the list suddenly doesn't seem too different from the lists that others have posted in this forum recently - and it would finally make some sense of how he got to perform well.
Kind Regards,
jares
Point of fact, you don't actually NEED as many many dredge cards since you can just dredge extra draws for free. Get caught? only a warning. High Reward, no RISK!
so... a judgecall cuz of dreding more, a strange list, no antihate... but still...
Dredge wins =P
Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells
:16:
Legendary Creature - Horror
Haste, Hexproof, Double Strike, Trample
Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells is indestructible.
Permanents you control can't be sacrificed or copied.
Whenever Kenjawn, Mutator of Cells attacks, defending player gets liver cancer (This effect doesn't end at end of turn.)
13/13
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