If you drew an allusion between how often Dredge "goes off" G1 and how often TES "goes off" G1, 33% is actually extremely high.
Ppl not playing LED play tribes or firestorm usually. Phantasmagorian sometimes. Still 33% is higher than than the whole marley family combined on their best day.Originally Posted by Dravus Mallinard
I AM THE 33%! #occupygraveyard
This man is a truthspeaker! You deserve a beer - if you see me in Ghent, you may present yourself to me as The Speaker of Truths and I will buy you a beer of choice
No, it's not very high given the fact that a LED in your hand is pretty awkward without a Land, a Dredger or a draw effect. You'll rely on your luck to topdeck the missing piece.
This comparison doesn't actually make sense. I assume that in general, Tireless Tribe will get the 4 LED slots in LEDless. The win percentage is exactly the same, for both cards do exactly the same, only that Tribe is exactly one turn slower. Tribe has 0% turn one wins but approximately (weighing the Looting-Flashback of LED against the chance to have two lands and draw effects by turn two with tribe) the same number of turn two wins.
Maths is the basis for BUILDING a deck, in that it tells you the approximate numbers for all the pieces (Lands, dredgers, etc) in your deck that will get you the highest chance to draw good hands. But maths can't account for anything that happens during a game. Sometimes they draw 4 Surgical Extractions in your opening hand instead of the average 0.4. Sometimes you have your turn 1 kill, but one FoW turned it into a loss. In all those cases you can complain that you're unlucky and that maths was on your side, but that's not how this game works.
I believe that I already tried to clarify this misunderstanding by showing that the probability of having a combination of LED+LAND+DREDGER+DRAW in your opening hand (regardless of what the remaining three cards might be) is at 13.28%. What Dravus Mallinard is saying is that, given that LED was already in your opening hand, there's a 33.25% chance that you'll get the rest of the supporting cast of LAND+DREDGER+DRAW.
I wonder if TES is able to get the Turn 1 kill more than 50% of the time... It would be interesting to see the numbers for that...
Kind Regards,
jares
Well said. The math will help with how the deck is built, but it will still be Skill that will win games - though sometimes luck does help.
Cheers,
jares
The same probabilities will hold for any card that you would swap for the LED slots, as follows:
- Given that you already have <anyCard> in your opening hand, the probability that you would also get [1x] Land and [1x] Dredger and [1x] Draw spell in the remaining 6 cards of your opening hand is 33.25% (given the constants that were previously stated).
Kind Regards,
jares
Hey jares, if you could copy and paste the quotes into Word or Notepad then you won't have to double and triple post all the time. It just makes the forums less cluttered. There may be rules about it too, I can't remember right now. Keep posting though, just try to shrink into one at a time. Thanks!
Are you guys trying to decide how often you explode first turn with LED compared to how often you don't? I mean, does it really matter? LED is good in both scenarios.
I actually sometimes do try that, especially when I wish to quote several things in one comment. I'll try my best to minimize the clutter though.
Kind Regards,
jares
I`m not an specialist in mathmatics, but just for curiosity I considered a few hypotesis for a T1 win with TES (I advise that I simplified a lot):
Mode 1 --> LED + Infernal Tutor + (generate +4 mana)
Mode 2 --> Ad Nauseum + (generate 5 mana)
A sample of list would hypoteticaly run 4xLED + 16xMana acceleration (Dark Ritual, Petal, Mox Chrome, Rite of flame/cabal ritual) + 4 infernal tutor + 1 ad nauseum +17 lands
To simplify I considered that any combination of 2 cards from the pool of 16 mana acceleration would generate 5 mana (for sure this probability is lower)
Result:
Probability to happen the mode 1 --> 3,32%
Probability to happen the mode 2 --> 4,46%
Total probability to win T1 = 7,78%
OBS: it improves a bit if you consider situations where they use ponder/brainstorm to find the pieces (but in this condition they have to generate +1mana)... I`m lasy to include this.
Anyway, it is not > 50% ... and it is even lower than our chances
hauhauhauha... LED Dredge is the best combo deck ever !!!
Yeah, understood, that's why I thought the number was "extremely high," altho' it's higher than 13.28% when you consider LED + Faithless Looting + Dredger or LED + Cephalid Coliseum + Dredger are less conditional, three card iterations of the effective nuts.
As an aside, is there anything worth flashing back for UU mana that's more functional than Deep Analysis? I'm probably getting really greedy, but I hate wasting UU every time I float mana off of LED -> CC.
For Belcher:
considering a 52 cards deck size (4xprobes + 4xStreet W.), 40 mana acceleration, 4x Belchers
considering that any 4 mana cards can generate 7 mana.
Chances to combo T1 = 41,27% (this is high)!!!
I think that the chances for going off in turn 1 decreased due to the absence of deep analysis. But I understand that loothing is an upgrade.
Hmm, why are you guys discussing the T1 kill percentages that much? Who cares if Dredge goes off T1 or T2? Dredge still has the same problems, doesn't matter which version you're playing.
If you want T1 kills for the lulz, go play Belcher or Pact Spanish Inquisition.
The major problem of LED builds, is that a single piece of hate can rain on your parade (assuming they'll be on the play 95% of times G2). LEDless fights hate better, and this is a proven statement.
LED is has a little bit resilience against Surgical Extraction, because you can dump half your deck in a single turn. But it is still cold to any other hate. And non-snapcaster decks are shifting away from Surgical Extraction, because it doesn't help against some decks (namely everything that uses Knight of the Reliquary).
As I've said before, what stops Dredge from being the best deck in this format is graveyard hate. So, how fast you can make your graveyard big isn't a concern. If you fight hate correctly, and have a little knowledge of your deck's weakness, you can go very far on any tournament.
The thing I hate most about this archtype, is that people can board 10 cards, and fuck you up with a Flying Men equipped with Leonin Scimitar after they blown your graveyard.
TL;DR doesn't matter if you play LED or not, just learn to play your deck, find your style and win.
Let your Dredge 6 be: Narco, Narco, Narco, Bridge, Bridge, Dread Return
For what its worth, Noxious Revival is tons of fun to play with post board. So many ways to use it.
-revive a narcomoeba
-fizzle a surgical extraction
-get back a nature's claim to fight hate
-say no to snapcaster mage
-give your opponent dead draws by putting land on top during upkeep.
-save a bridge from below from popping if a creature your opponent is about to die.
-I'm sure people more creative than I can think of other uses.
It's pretty good, not the best, but its fun and can really keep you in a game for a long time if you're getting your face hated off.
I trade out 4x leyline of the void for 4x revival in board. Leyline is just not that great, and become a dead draw, thins the deck out horribly.
Last edited by flapjack; 03-15-2012 at 05:58 PM. Reason: Additional info
+1
Mmmm, i think that the main trouble of dredge LED or Ledless is double surgical, via snapcaster, on ichorid and moeba. This dismantle us. Our chances are discard, speed or nether shadow. I think that part of the success of manaless ichorid is that your opo cant extirpate everything: moeba + ichorid + shadow.
The point is that, in my opinion, you cant put all together. Or you run mana ichorid or run loothing + moeba / ichorid decks. So in accordance with Vandalize, choose your version of the deck, master it and win.
I thought like you, but i came to the conclusion that Noxious Revival isn't that good as i thought. The problem is that you need it in your hand. If it is in your graveyard you can't use it.
Actually Memory's Journey is my favourite.
But the biggest problem at the moment is that people starting to play Ravenous Trap and i begin to cry about this. It's depressing to Dredge your half deck and lose against a Trap in the hand of your opponent.
K1w1
My colors are... ZONK!
You haven't any colors. You play Dredge.
You love games, which are unfair. You hate Reanimator & NicFit.
At good days, you destroy everything. At bad days,
you draw Narcomoebas. But the most important thing:
Everybody hates you!
Yeah, I agree that the percentage of Dredge being able to go off on Turn 1 would probably be a bit higher than 13.28%, as so far we've really only considered one of the possible combinations that would facilitate that scenario (LED+LAND+DREDGER+DRAW). It would be interesting to see the actual figures for the probability of a Turn 1 kill, but I feel that we wouldn't benefit too much from that information anyway.
#Aside: I believe that Desperate Ravings was being experimented-on by Hollywood some time ago. Maybe that might help with your inquiry.
Cheers,
jares
Agreed. I believe that we would certainly benefit more from an exploration of how to best manage Games 2 and 3. Also, I believe that, as much as it's a lot of fun to get cards in the graveyard as quickly as possible, the main objective of Dredge is still to get as many cards as possible into the graveyard. The emergence of the LED+Faithless Looting synergy has certainly provided another gear that can be used by the archetype (which is great!), but I'm afraid that it may have also distracted many into thinking that the main objective of Dredge is to get cards into the graveyard as quickly as possible. I'm not saying that this is a bad thing - I'm just saying that there are things that may be more important than just being ridiculously fast (like addressing hate, as Vandalize has mentioned).
Kind Regards,
jares
Found the report from the guy who made top 8.
http://www.gatheringmagic.com/andofe...-top-8-report/
I don't really use either card in my sideboard, but if I were to use Noxious Revival or Memory's Journey, I'd probably choose Noxious Revival for the following reasons:
- It looks like there are a few more tricks that can be done with the card.
- The phyrexian casting cost makes it very convenient.
- While Memory's Journey has Flashback, its casting cost can sometimes be a problem if you do draw it in your opening hand.
Given the strengths and weaknesses that have been presented for both cards so far, I would probably run [1x] Memory's Journey and 2-3 Noxious Revival in my sideboard.
Kind Regards,
jares
p.s. my favorite use for these cards is actually to combat Reanimator, which is a really difficult match-up whenever hate is not available.
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