All B/R update speculation.

[rufus]

...
Fact is RUG has very few bad match ups and can randomly beat anything when it draws nuts and has been at the top for months.

The same thing, I think, was true about thresh a while ago. FWIW, It's a little tricky for me to figure out how a deck that can't "randomly beat anything" is ever going to be legacy competitive. Similarly, people were saying a lot of the same things about Tarmogoyf that are now being said about delver. I can't see delver getting the ban-hammer anytime soon.

[nedleeds]

I find it intersting that people are complaining about Show and Tell, despite the fact that Survival does the same thing for less mana.

What an absurd statement. You commit your entire turn to it, it takes more ongoing mana and still can't put Griselbrand or Emrakul into play without casting a terrible 1WW man. As for Ooze the Ooze still has to be reanimated or hard cast @ 2BB.

At this point why would you dick around with Survival and pass the turn when you can slam down Griselbrand and Yawgmoth's Bargain.

Vengevines fighting (through 4 x STP, 4 x SCM, Grafdigger's Cage, Extraction, etc.) ... seems like a decent strategy but not more back breaking then entomb -> reanimate.

With so much hate available how is SotF any more abusive then what's currently running around.

[nedleeds]

The trick is Survival Vine is MUCH faster than Delver. And the margin is not even close. A flipped Delver will kill you eventually, an active Survival for a single turn might just end the game that turn or the next, due to how big and fast Vines are.

A Delver comes out on turn one on the play. Is blue. Flies. Requires no other commitments other than to play some of the other best cards in the format (Force, Brainstorm, Lightning Bolt, Ponder, Stifle, etc.).

The Vengevine / SotF plan requires 7-8 deck slots for those cards. That actually do nothing. I mean the Vine in a vacuum if hardcast is still a decent man but I think we'd agree you're better off casting Thrun or something. After you push the SoTF through, you still need men in your hand, and if you've protected it with counter magic who knows what you have left. Then you have to play other awful cards like Basking Rootwalla.

Look ... the plan is a strong plan but no more strong than just going island -> ponder, ancient tomb -> SnT with Force / MisD backup. Griselbrand / Emrakul. Draw my deck / Rape You.

I think people not owning Show and Tell is all that keeps that card from raping more. I own them but just feel dirty playing them at my weekly legacy.

Unban some stuff before putting more stuff on the ban list. Let the format breathe, I'd love to see G/w SotF versus abusive ass Show and Tell. Give the other colors some power to fight crap like Delver. Give white Land Tax so you can build a white control deck. Give black Mind Twist so it can turn the tide mid game on the control deck. Give me black vise so I can punish the control decks (and play Stasis ...).

[Fossil4182]

That's not how it works. If only everything was that simple.

Finding a deck that beats the best deck and does not lose to the rest of the field is a lot harder than just simply saying "Play a deck which beats it"

Fact is RUG has very few bad match ups and can randomly beat anything when it draws nuts and has been at the top for months.

What data are you basing your conclusions on? Recent analysis by the Hatfields suggest that RUG Tempo is rather poorly positioned right now with negative match-ups against Maverick and UW Stoneblade (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/l...formation.html). If its based on perception or experience, head over the RUG thread which only reinforces the conclusions the data suggests. The match-up with UW Stoneblade has become worse with those decks shifting toward a Miracle based strategy.

I'm more convinced that Sensei's Divining Top will get the axe before Brainstorm in this format. The Miracle mechanic is what will probably push it over the line IMO. Top is already on the watch list because of the logistical issue it presents which is the time lost from repeated use overtime combined with shuffle effects. Its also the most abusive way to exploit Miracle cards in the format (more so than Brainstorm and Jace). Granted that all of them work in synergy together, but Top is what makes it go since it functionally allows you cast them at Miracle cost (compared to Brainstorm which adds a U to the cost of each Miracle card) and at instant speed.

[dontbiteitholmes]

What an absurd statement. You commit your entire turn to it, it takes more ongoing mana and still can't put Griselbrand or Emrakul into play without casting a terrible 1WW man. As for Ooze the Ooze still has to be reanimated or hard cast @ 2BB.

At this point why would you dick around with Survival and pass the turn when you can slam down Griselbrand and Yawgmoth's Bargain.

Vengevines fighting (through 4 x STP, 4 x SCM, Grafdigger's Cage, Extraction, etc.) ... seems like a decent strategy but not more back breaking then entomb -> reanimate.

With so much hate available how is SotF any more abusive then what's currently running around.

You need GY spell + Reanimate to bring back a fatty and a single swords puts you back to square 1.

Show and Tell is really good no doubt, but you still need to assemble a 2 card combo minimum.

The problem with Vengevine was that it turned Survival into a one card combo. You drop your Survival, pay 3-4 Green mana next turn, and you suddenly have a huge hasted army that quickly ends the game, even from a losing position. Without Vine the best combo was Loyal Retainer + legend, which is pretty good at times, but in the end it's still usually 1G + GG + 2W to break it off so it was far from game breaking. Show and Tell or Reanimator are all in on the combo, Survival with Vine let you play an already good deck with 4x cards in your deck basically threatening 16 power of haste with every topdeck.

The main problem with Survival + Vine IMO opinion is that it means there is pretty much no reason to play any other creature based deck. Why tempo into a Goyf when you could drop a Survival for the same price and put 7 creatures on the table next turn and still run counter magic?

[Tacosnape]

Some people stay off Show and Tell decks for fear of the mirror, too, which gets sketchy. There's a mono-blue list floating around with Lotus Petal, Gitaxian Probe, and Fold Into Aether floating around that's pretty beastly for this reason.

RUG Delver has managed to adapt and basically even the Maverick matchup due largely in part to somebody finally figuring out Forked Bolt is a real card, and also partly due to cards like Stifle being decent again. So basically, why on earth would you play Maverick over RUG Delver when Show and Tell steamrolls Maverick (And almost every other deck on the planet), but can't handle RUG Delver?

Show and Tell is what's crippling the format development here, despite it not being in RUG Delver. Show me a deck that beats RUG Delver consistently that can also hang against SnT. Seriously. The best thing I've got is Dredge, and Dredge is far from automatic against either one, and like always, Dredge is in that class of decks that a little sideboard adaptation knocks back down to second tier. MUD with Chalices can do it also, but again, sideboard adaptation will make it only a temporary fix.

I'm personally trying to do it with UW Miracle, but it's still a struggle. Mongoose and Stifle just win sometimes.

[nedleeds]

You need GY spell + Reanimate to bring back a fatty and a single swords puts you back to square 1.

No. I drew 7 in response to your StP. I forced it.

Show and Tell is really good no doubt, but you still need to assemble a 2 card combo minimum.

The second card is Yawgmoth's Bargain with Lifelink that deals 7 and a card that Jokulhapses and hits for 15. You have 8 of them. You have brainstorm / ponder to massage all the brokenness.

Why tempo into a Goyf when you could drop a Survival for the same price and put 7 creatures on the table next turn and still run counter magic?

Because Goyf / KotR is good as a standalone card. SotF is a blank. Goyf attacks blocks and wins through a Grafdigger's Cage. Going through a discarding exercise only to have your Vines shwagged by a Surgical is awful. A hand with 2 Vengevines and spells is pretty awful without Survival. A hand with 2 goyfs and spells is fine.

[menace13]

What data are you basing your conclusions on? Recent analysis by the Hatfields suggest that RUG Tempo is rather poorly positioned right now with negative match-ups against Maverick and UW Stoneblade (http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/l...formation.html). If its based on perception or experience, head over the RUG thread which only reinforces the conclusions the data suggests. The match-up with UW Stoneblade has become worse with those decks shifting toward a Miracle based strategy.

TCDecks, since Delver was printed(October) has RUG as the most placing deck with 3 months, Maverick has 2 months. This month they are tied but with a week left I feel RUG will outpace it for its 4th month on top of the placings. It has evened its MU with Maverick and continues to outplace everything not named Maverick by a wide margin.

Best deck in the format right now.

[Gui]

TCDecks, since Delver was printed(October) has RUG as the most placing deck with 3 months, Maverick has 2 months. This month they are tied but with a week left I feel RUG will outpace it for its 4th month on top of the placings. It has evened its MU with Maverick and continues to outplace everything not named Maverick by a wide margin.

Best deck in the format right now.

Yeah, considering that Maverick had 12 months of top placing before that, guess we are fine...

[menace13]

Yeah, considering that Maverick had 12 months of top placing before that, guess we are fine...

I guess if that is how you feel, but has little bearing on actual stats. The months prior had Blade, Zoo, NORUG, and Survival before that.

Are you okay?

[Malakai]

http://www.thecouncil.es/tcdecks/bus...ide=&strict=on

Time to ban Ninja of the Deep Hours and Null Rod.

[Malakai]

Show me a deck that beats RUG Delver consistently that can also hang against SnT.

CounterTop
Faerie Stompy
UR Delver (alright this doesn't really count)
Merfolk, hilariously
High Tide
UW Snapcaster Control
Affinity

[rxavage]

Should we start banning critters now? Out of the top 2 decks there is only one common denominator and that is green not blue. I say its unfair for one colour to get all the best creatures and when another colour gets a creature that can finally keep pace with nactl it starts an uproar.




Also, please don't ban Ninja of the deep I just got a playset for .50$... lol

[wizard_of_gore]

Tacosnape, you are overreacting and bullshitting.
Any tempo deck has good matchup against S&T decks, merfolks, decks based on heavy disruption and mana denial. I watched deadguy ale raping them alive - first turn iok, second hymn, third turn wasteland + confidant, fourth turn liliana and so on... S&T didnt have a chance. And please, don't say that maverick is smashed by show and tell decks, at least you can put your KOTR in play via S&T and go for karakas.... I played sneak show against maverick couple of times, and it's a 50:50 matchup. It's not so easy as you say. You must get through thalia, wastelands, KOTRs+wasteland+karakas, qasali and other form of answers....
Why are you whining? S&T decks are not even close to numbers of showing in top 8 like...erhm... maverick, rug, blade, dredge, ur burn and so on.... Where is problem? Storm and high tide are more frustrating combo decks to play against than combo decks cheating large creatures in play (sneak show, reanimator....)

[menace13]

Tacosnape, you are overreacting and bullshitting.
Any tempo deck has good matchup against S&T decks, merfolks, decks based on heavy disruption and mana denial. I watched deadguy ale raping them alive - first turn iok, second hymn, third turn wasteland + confidant, fourth turn liliana and so on... S&T didnt have a chance. And please, don't say that maverick is smashed by show and tell decks, at least you can put your KOTR in play via S&T and go for karakas.... I played sneak show against maverick couple of times, and it's a 50:50 matchup. It's not so easy as you say. You must get through thalia, wastelands, KOTRs+wasteland+karakas, qasali and other form of answers....
Why are you whining? S&T decks are not even close to numbers of showing in top 8 like...erhm... maverick, rug, blade, dredge, ur burn and so on.... Where is problem? Storm and high tide are more frustrating combo decks to play against than combo decks cheating large creatures in play (sneak show, reanimator....)

Maverick and Sneak are not 50/50.

Sneak Show has placed in the top 5 to 10 most winning decks past few months.

[nedleeds]

Nobody owns Sneaks and Show and Tells. People are just starting to get playsets of Griselbrand.

June announcement ... I want unbannings galore

[rxavage]

Nobody owns Sneaks and Show and Tells. People are just starting to get playsets of Griselbrand.

June announcement ... I want unbannings galore

I own sneaks and shows along with alot of other people... but I would also like to see some unbannings in June.

[lordofthepit]

What is the timeline for R&D? Do they interact with the DCI at all?

I'm curious now because the banning of Mystical Tutor 2 years ago was pretty controversial, but it makes sense if they were planning to force Miracle on us.

[Fossil4182]

TCDecks, since Delver was printed(October) has RUG as the most placing deck with 3 months, Maverick has 2 months. This month they are tied but with a week left I feel RUG will outpace it for its 4th month on top of the placings. It has evened its MU with Maverick and continues to outplace everything not named Maverick by a wide margin.

Best deck in the format right now.

The data we're both using describes two different things. In the post I quoted, you argued that RUG had no "bad match ups". The data I posted talked about direct match ups where RUG went against Maverick & UW Stoneblade. It indicated that RUG has a weak match up against UW Stoneblade and Maverick (also Pox).

The data you refer to doesn't describe anything relevant to RUG's match-ups. At best, one could argue that RUG having a high number of placements means it has reasonably strong match-ups: 57% overall win percentage indicates that. However, it has weak individual match ups and can be metagamed out if peope are playing the right decks. Using placement as the basis for determining a deck's match-ups leads to erroneous conclusions. The data doesn't describe what you're claiming it describes, and there are other variables such as frequency of the decks that can impact the placement. If 25% of the field is RUG it will flood top eights.

[wizard_of_gore]

Sneak Show has placed in the top 5 to 10 most winning decks past few months.

And what with maverick, RUG, blade, dredge, nic fit, UR burn, reanimator, storm, BUG/team america, aggro loam being in the top 10 mot winning decks past few months? Why they are not problem, and S&T is problem? And we all know which decks constantly hold top 3 that few months. And show and tell is not in that 3...