[Deck] Spanish Inquisition (B/x Storm Combo)

[andy]

Sorry for leaving a massive post and then not responding for a while. As part of my getting back into Magic, I've been playing a different deck at my local store each week to try out a variety of things. I haven't had much time to keep goldfishing PSI. I do want to respond to a few things:

1)

I haven't tried to figure out what my turn one rate can be, but I feel that belcher heavy lists make that worse.

Belcher did show up in a bunch of hands I mulliganed, although I feel that if those were Tendrils I still would have mulliganed. Still, I'll try out a higher ratio of Tendrils to Belcher for my next 30 hands.

2)

One thing to note is that even though you can get lucky and get T1 kills all the time, it often requires just that - luck. Turn one D4 with no mana floating is something I do all the time. You aren't necessarily trying to T1 when you do that (that doesn't mean you don't continue if it seems terribly obvious, just be careful) but you will generally get an easy T2 out of that T1 play.

"Luck" in this sense is a product of deck design. I'm not trying to figure out the best way to get T2 kills, and I'm not trying to work out the best strategy for playing the deck in, say, a tournament situation. The claim was that the deck can reach a 60%+ T1 win rate in goldfishing, and I'm testing that claim. To that end, any time I D4 into something where I would normally pass the turn in a real game, clearly passing the turn is incorrect. (Any decision to stop going off when you could keep going necessarily lowers your T1 win rate, even if it would be the correct decision in a real game.)

3)

T1 on the draw on the other hand... I could see that being some higher number like the 60% + claims. It just seems really easy to do T1 on the draw really often.

That's a point I hadn't really considered. All of my hands were assuming I'd be on the play. Perhaps my next batch of hands should be a play/draw split, keeping stats for each separately and together.

4)

Just know that if you are playing on a program like Cockatrice or Workstation, the shuffler is really important to getting good hands. I like to pile shuffle every single time I draw a hand, even upon mulligans. I get plenty of turn 1's.

I shuffle very thoroughly. I side shuffle several times, then pile shuffle, then side shuffle several more times. All of the sample hands I posted were real life, not using a program's auto-shuffler.

5)

Also, its not really clear but the turn 1 ratio of 60% can vary drastically.

This doesn't make sense. If you mean the deck can be very streaky in the short term, then fine. But it has some T1 win rate (assuming consistent play decisions), and over a large collection of goldfishes, the law of large numbers says we should approach that T1 win rate. The fact that I had under 30% T1 win rate over 30 hands doesn't mean that the T1 win rate is actually under 30% (because a sample size of 30 isn't particularly large). But, assuming I didn't make obvious errors in choice of deck list or play decisions, a sample size of 30 with such a low T1 win rate should be enough to reject the 60%+ hypothesis. (I haven't done any stats in a while, but something, something, something, confidence interval, T-test? Perhaps somebody more comfortable with statistics could comment on the sample size issue.)

6)

You simply must learn to play the deck optimally by waiting and not pushing the turn 1.

I'm not trying to play the deck optimally for, say, tournament purposes. I'm looking to optimize the T1 win rate.

7) For my next set of sample hands (whenever I get around to them), I think I'll make the following changes from my previous list:

- 3 Goblin Charbelcher
+ 1 Tendrils of Agony
+ 2 Manamorphose

Should I also cut, say, Past in Flames for the fourth Tendrils of Agony? I think five win conditions instead of four is probably the right decision, and I can't tell how good Past in Flames is in this deck. It sometimes seems like a win-more card. At the very least, I don't think it really helps the T1 win rate, since it requires a bit of setup and multiple rituals, and it usually can't make good use of Culling the Weak or Lion's Eye Diamond.

[Vacrix]

Sorry for leaving a massive post and then not responding for a while. As part of my getting back into Magic, I've been playing a different deck at my local store each week to try out a variety of things. I haven't had much time to keep goldfishing PSI. I do want to respond to a few things:

1)
Belcher did show up in a bunch of hands I mulliganed, although I feel that if those were Tendrils I still would have mulliganed. Still, I'll try out a higher ratio of Tendrils to Belcher for my next 30 hands.

2)
"Luck" in this sense is a product of deck design. I'm not trying to figure out the best way to get T2 kills, and I'm not trying to work out the best strategy for playing the deck in, say, a tournament situation. The claim was that the deck can reach a 60%+ T1 win rate in goldfishing, and I'm testing that claim. To that end, any time I D4 into something where I would normally pass the turn in a real game, clearly passing the turn is incorrect. (Any decision to stop going off when you could keep going necessarily lowers your T1 win rate, even if it would be the correct decision in a real game.)

3)
That's a point I hadn't really considered. All of my hands were assuming I'd be on the play. Perhaps my next batch of hands should be a play/draw split, keeping stats for each separately and together.

4)
I shuffle very thoroughly. I side shuffle several times, then pile shuffle, then side shuffle several more times. All of the sample hands I posted were real life, not using a program's auto-shuffler.

5)
This doesn't make sense. If you mean the deck can be very streaky in the short term, then fine. But it has some T1 win rate (assuming consistent play decisions), and over a large collection of goldfishes, the law of large numbers says we should approach that T1 win rate. The fact that I had under 30% T1 win rate over 30 hands doesn't mean that the T1 win rate is actually under 30% (because a sample size of 30 isn't particularly large). But, assuming I didn't make obvious errors in choice of deck list or play decisions, a sample size of 30 with such a low T1 win rate should be enough to reject the 60%+ hypothesis. (I haven't done any stats in a while, but something, something, something, confidence interval, T-test? Perhaps somebody more comfortable with statistics could comment on the sample size issue.)

6)
I'm not trying to play the deck optimally for, say, tournament purposes. I'm looking to optimize the T1 win rate.

7) For my next set of sample hands (whenever I get around to them), I think I'll make the following changes from my previous list:

- 3 Goblin Charbelcher
+ 1 Tendrils of Agony
+ 2 Manamorphose

Should I also cut, say, Past in Flames for the fourth Tendrils of Agony? I think five win conditions instead of four is probably the right decision, and I can't tell how good Past in Flames is in this deck. It sometimes seems like a win-more card. At the very least, I don't think it really helps the T1 win rate, since it requires a bit of setup and multiple rituals, and it usually can't make good use of Culling the Weak or Lion's Eye Diamond.

@1
The Tendrils heavy lists have an easier time just getting to 10 with as little as one D4 and then Tendrils for the kill. Personally I find myself getting more turn 1's with Belcher in the opener simply because having Culling the Weak as acceleration makes it much easier to get to 7 to activate Belcher on top of having access to LED. Sometimes you misfire on Belcher because you play 2 lands but often you are only dealing with 1 land because the deck has 8 ways to find it ontop of naturally drawing it in the opener or with a D4. Maindeck Belcher's also enable more pass the turn plays.

@2
If you are really pushing the turn 1, mulligans are extremely important.

@3
Against some decks, you want to play first D4, lay down some Chrome Moxen, Land Grant, etc. and then pass the turn and then go off on your next turn with perpetuals. Sometimes, the matchup prefers being on the draw because you get 8 cards to go off with versus drawing your opening 7 and risk passing the turn. For example, if you know the opponent is going to mulligan aggressively for hate, Slithermuse becomes a less viable option, but if the opponent has discard based hate and/or can do something relevant on the first turn, you'd prefer to go first. Against a deck like Maverick thats going to go for bears on the first turn, best not give them the extra card on the draw to natural draw their hate. Also, if you board in EtW, being a turn faster in the combat phase can be relevant if the opponent can lay down blockers or get to 3 for Deed or something.

@4
Good. Shuffling really does make the difference. I try playing PSI on Cockatrice sometimes and the shuffler isn't too kind to me.

@5
The deck can definitely be streaky. One time I went to a larger tournament and turn 1'd like 7 times out of (2-0) (2-0) (2-1) (2-1) (ID in R5). Some locals I go to I get mostly pass the turn plays and know that I can get it based on the matchup (and scouting) so I just keep it because I know the deck will pull its weight. Play 50 games at least. Yeah 30 games isn't accurate. I tested a version of DSI (the one that supreme10 was playing) and I started out thinking it was the best version of the deck ever to grace magic cause I got something like 19 or 20 turn 1 kills from the start of playing. Then the deck fizzled out on me or got bad hands, or just had safer pass the turn plays. Dropped the list cause it was too volatile for my taste. I'll critique your 30 games pretty shortly because thats also good for the thread and reputation of the deck's turn 1 ratio.

@6
DireLemming had a list a while back we deemed DSI. I had been trying to develop it but got lazy and he crafted a pretty sexy list. He played 50 games and got a 70% turn 1 ratio. Consider experimenting with Eternal Witness. Honestly I feel like the card might improve the turn 1 ratio because its a fail safe to turn LEDs and Pacts into business spells. I personally dropped it from my build because I always board it out and the situation doesn't come up often. Sometimes it dead in your hand, but other times you can actually use it naturally from your hand to do something cool. Its definitely one of the coolest lines of play this deck can make though. Feels good when you pull it off. If you are looking to optimize the turn 1 ratio, experiment with different slots, ie. Belcher vs. Tendrils, PiF and/or IGG and/or Slithermuse, Eternal Witness and other Pact targets (Young Wolf, Odious Trow, Wild Cantor, Tinderwall, and Skyshroud Cutter). People have different play styles and different lines of play because the decision tree, especially with Pact in the deck, can be complex. And you are doing everything on the fly, its not like you have time to set up with the decision tree of a cantrip based combo deck.

@7
I cut PiF recently from my build to play with IGG again actually. IGG works with LEDs and PiF doesn't, though PiF has the advantage of being played naturally from the hand with LEDs (I've done this before with a hand of 4 LEDs as my only 'initial' mana sources). I wouldn't play 4 Tendrils. It seems like too much. You can't often hit 8 mana naturally in your hand without playing a D4 so you can't double Tendrils from your hand. Hands with Tendrils as the only business spell are often mulligans, depending on the matchup and depending on the rest of your hand. I found PiF works better with Culling the Weak if you play Young Wolf or Tukatongue Thallid. Also, Summoner's Pact(s) --> ESG(s) --> Manamorphose from the grave works pretty dam well with Past in Flames. I think in Emidln's list (he recently picked up the deck again out of boredom) he plays PiF and 2 Wild Cantor. Other than that I think his list is quite similar to mine.

I'm on summer break so sometime soon I'll do an analysis of each of those 30 games.

EDIT:

BACK OFF TOPIC:

I listed to some of your music Vacrix. Good job man, that stuffs pretty dark :D

Thanks. I have a beast track coming up pretty soon, working on it right now actually. Psychedelic ambient mixed with a rap beat and low bass tones, kinda wobbling but not dubstep.

[kusumoto]

I think people are giving up on Past in Flames too soon.

It can be really strong when you draw into it and has massive advantage over IGG in the blue guy department.

Sure it doesn't get LED out of the yard, but IGG is really only good with LED most of the time. PiF is good with and without it.

It's also easier to use PiF if you run a couple of Manamorphose in addition to Wild Cantor. Manamorphose is serious business in the super aggressive 3 tendrils, 1 slithermuse, 1 belcher, 1 PiF, 2 Manamorphose configuration.

Sometimes it kicks you in the nuts though if you pick the wrong colors and it draws you something that doesn't match your choice. Then other times you can afford to say red or blue as one and topdeck the win like a boss.

[Vacrix]

I've been thinking that PiF might be better as a sideboard card, not something I'd want to cut completely. I can probably make space for it in the board. Generally, IGG isn't too good in the blue matchup because it can potentially return them 3 counterspells. So if you haven't played Autumn's Veil.. its not that effective. PiF gives us a target in the post-board to fetch with Infernal Tutor thats more effective against blue, as well as being something that works naturally with the post-board given Carpet of Flowers as well as Taiga, if you choose to play it. The other day I had to deal with sideboarded 4 Leyline of Sanctity and 3 Serum Powder post-board against Planeswalker control. He had it for Burn, Belcher, Storm combo, discard, etc. So yeah I had to play around that and PiF allowed me to play a few EtW tokens, and then try again with PiF, and then again with PiF. Its good when you draw it naturally because it allows you to use LEDs and Carpets for free 'resolve your whole graveyard' attempts. A topdecked LED or Carpet with PiF in the yard can spell game for an opponent who ran out of countermagic.

[Summerrain]

Hi there,

I'm not really sure what to write in this first post, but since there's already some OT-stuff around, I'll stick to that too .

First of all, I'm very grateful for this thread and the many members that contribute to it with testing and advice. Especially you, Vacrix. I think you're doing a great job *thumbs up*.
I started playing P.S.I. ~1/2 year ago after I decided to get my hand on some kind of combo deck, which I never did before. The first decks I tried were ANT and Belcher (1 and 2 Land). I was quite bored by both, especially the 1 Land Belcher. I then came across this thread and found the idea behind S.I. quite interesting.
Guess you all know what came next: A long period with mostly seriously frustrating goldfishing, testing and brainstorming before I even came close to the point where I would consider to take P.S.I. to a tournament.

Last sunday I took P.S.I. to it's fourth tournament with ~35-40 players.
Decklist:

MB
Creatures
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Odious Trow
1 Slithermuse
1 Wild Cantor

Spells
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Cruel Bargain
4 Culling the Weak
4 Dark Ritual
4 Infernal Contract
4 Infernal Tutor
4 Land Grant
2 Manamorphose
1 Past in Flames
4 Summoner's Pact
1 Tendrils of Agony

Artifacts
4 Chrome Mox
3 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal

Lands
1 Bayou
1 Dryad Arbor

SB
2 Autumn's Veil
4 Duress
3 [cards]Empty the Warrens[/card]
4 Carpet of Flowers
1 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Taiga

I went 3:3. I expected worse, since I wasn't able to practice the deck for about a month. Of course I made a lot of mistakes due to this fact. In the end, I realized again that you can't take this deck to a tournament without serious practice in the forefront.

However, I made some notes so here's a short tournament report:

Game 1 vs Maverick

1. I'm on the draw with 2xDark Ritual, 1 Belcher, 1 ESG, 1 Land Grant, 1 IT (mull to six)

My opponent goes fetch->Land, Hierarch, Go.
I draw PiF, then go LG-> Bayou, DR, ESG -> Belcher, fearing an early Thalia or Gaddock/GSZ into Gaddock.
He answers with fetch->Land, pridemage -.- and destroys my belcher.
I draw LED, holding 1 LED, 1 IT, 1 PiF, 1 Dark Ritual. Now, the following chain would have won me the game:
1. Bayou-> Dark Ritual (Storm 1, BBB floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR (4) )
2. LED (Storm 2, BBB floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR (4) )
3. IT (Storm 3, B floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR (4) )
in response: 4. Crack LED-> RRR (Storm 3, BRRR floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR, LED, PiF (6) )
Tutor for LED (Storm 3, BRRR floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR, LED, PiF, IT (7) )
4. Crack LED-> BBB (Storm 4, BBBBRRR floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR, LED, PiF, IT, LED (8) )
5. FB PiF (Storm 5, BB floating, GY = LG, DR, Belch, DR, LED, IT, LED (7) )
6. FB DR (Storm 6, BBBB floating, GY = LG, Belch, DR, LED, IT, LED (6) )
7. FB DR (Storm 7, BBBBBB floating, GY = LG, Belch, LED, IT, LED (5) )
8. IT->ToA (Storm 8, BBBB floating, GY = LG, Belch, LED, LED (4) )
9. Toa for 18 (2 fetches, if you remember)

Unfortunately... I don't see that difficult chain in the 30 seconds time I have.


I pass the turn and he casts a Gaddock. (0:1)

2. I'm on the play with Dryad Arbor, Go.
He again goes with Fetch, Hierarch.
Second turn I'm casting a Belcher that I activate with LED. I reveal a Bayou as my 15th card with a Pact in my GY. (0:2)

[0:1 (0:2) ]


Game 2 vs ... Maverick ^^

1. I'm on the draw again and execute a D4 on 5 chain with a Slithermuse on turn 1. I find both Lands, tons of mana and kill him with belcher. (1:0)

2. Again I'm able to kill him turn one, this time with a long PiF chain. I had trouble playing that chain correctly though , but it all went well. I don't recall what killed him, since I could have cast both ToA and Belcher at the end of it. Nevermind. (2:0)

[1:1 (2:2)]


Game 3 vs CounterTop

1. I'm on the draw (again -.-), he starts with Land->Top. I have a huge hand with amongst others 2xCtW, 1xDryad Arbor, 1xWild Cantor, 1xBelch (and a Pact+Petal I think). He doesn't have the Force and Bayou is somewhere in my deck, but not in the first 20 cards. (1:0)

Boarding:
Out:
-4 Culling the Weak
-4 Summoner's Pact
-1 Wild Cantor
-1 Odious Trow
-1 Dryad Arbor
-1 Slithermuse
-1 Manamorphose
-1 Infernal Tutor

In:
All 15 Cards

2. I get beat up badly by Top+Balance+Canonist. (1:1)

3. He has 2 Canonists, but that's a really poor clock. I wait till I have a lot of perp. sources and then kill him with D4->Belcher (with no lands in deck). (2:1)

At this point my opponent looked very sad and confused. He thought the matchup was around the best he could get and got battered in 2 games. P.S.I. really is a house.

[2:1 (4:3)]


Game 4 vs RUG Tempo

I put him on RUG from scouting.

1. I win the roll and play cautiously but die under a Delver Beatdown. My first D4 brought no good and after that he wasted my Bayou. I'm in topdeck-mode but without any perp. mana sources. (0:1)


Boarding:
Out:
-4 Culling the Weak
-4 Summoner's Pact
-1 Wild Cantor
-1 Odious Trow
-1 Dryad Arbor
-1 Slithermuse
-1 Manamorphose
-1 Infernal Tutor



In:
All 15 Cards

2. He mulls on 6 and forces a first-turn D4 but I got 2 Chrome Mox in play as well as 1 Taiga. He doesn't get a clock out there since he's to busy handling my business spells with his counters. In the end he runs out of gas much earlier than I do and I'm in topdeck mode with tons of mana sources (carpet is so good...). He can't answer a belcher and loses. (1:1)

3. He mulls on 6 and counters my first duress and later on is able to put a Goyf on the field. I again got lots of mana sources on the field and he's running out of gas. He can't answer a belcher and loses. (2:1)
Interesting: He has no counter for an early D4 but responds to it with a lightning bolt. This means my life goes to 8 (20-3=17, 17:2=8). If he played correctly I would have been down to 7 (20:2=10, 10-3=7) and he could have killed me. After the game an observer asked him why he did it. He of course was angry with himself ^^. My guess is he just doesn't play against D4 very often, even though I know him as a very experienced and good magic-player and judge. :)

[3:1 (6:4)]


Game 5 vs RUG Tempo

1. I'm on the play and kill him turn 1 with a long, but this time easy to execute PiF chain. He doesn't have the force. Drawback: I've seen nothing of his deck. (1:0)

2. I mull to 6, but get a decent hand. He casts a delver on his turn 1 and I think I have to go for it as long as he has no lands untapped. Unfortunately he has a Daze I can't play around. I can pay the next time pact-upkeep via a LED. However, I don't come back in the game (he counters my perp. manasources) and he kills me with a Goyf and a Delver. (1:1)

Boarding:
Out:
-4 Culling the Weak
-4 Summoner's Pact
-1 Wild Cantor
-1 Odious Trow
-1 Dryad Arbor
-1 Slithermuse
-1 Manamorphose
-1 Infernal Tutor



In:
All 15 Cards

3. I go for an early carpet, but he counters it. He plays very smart here, pondering and brainstorming very often and countering my perp. manasources. It's long game but I can't really get in on it. We both run out of gas, but he has a goyf on the field. (1:2)

[3:2 (7:6)]


Game 6 vs Maverick

I put her on Mav. from spotting.

1. I got a nice hand with both lands and D4. I play arbor, go, she plays arbor, go.
I go all in with Pact->Cantor, Lotus Petal, bayou, ESG and the arbor. I'm able to cast another D4 but then my chain fizzles. I got enough manasources for the pact trigger next turn, but run out of gas and die under her creature beatdown. (0:1)

2. We both take a mulligan. She puts a Leyline of Sanctity on the field. I concede. Meh. (0:2)

[3:3 (7:8)]

Had I won the last game, I would have been in the Top 8, gaining a price. Aggravating.

Now, what did I learn?
Most of all, I'll never go to a tournament again without sound practice.
Past in Flames is sick. I already knew that out of goldfishing. I've tested both and I think PiF >> IGG. That's just my opinion, but I got from ~40 games with IGG and my "standard" goldfishes with the decklist above.
Against counter-heavy decks it's so important to get enough perp. sources on the board, since the postboard topdeckmode is really a beast.
After the last game I'm thinking about
+1 EtW
-1 ???
postboard against white decks. The leyline was very frustrating.

After all I was very suprised how bad I went against Maverick. I did about 300 goldfishes against that meta with second turn Thalia, second turn Gaddock and such stuff and still had ~95 win %. Variance may probably be the reason I lost the 2 games.

PS: Could somebody tell me how I include links on the cards? I've read the FAQ but couldn't find anything. Don't want my posts to be a pain in the ass.

[Water_Wizard]

for cards you put: [_cards_]card name[/_cards_]

except replace "_" with "" (no spaces)

so: Culling the Weak

if you have any questions, reply with quote and you can pull the tag out of the quoted text.

[Vacrix]

Now, what did I learn?
Most of all, I'll never go to a tournament again without sound practice.
Past in Flames is sick. I already knew that out of goldfishing. I've tested both and I think PiF >> IGG. That's just my opinion, but I got from ~40 games with IGG and my "standard" goldfishes with the decklist above.
Against counter-heavy decks it's so important to get enough perp. sources on the board, since the postboard topdeckmode is really a beast.
After the last game I'm thinking about
+1 EtW
-1 ???
postboard against white decks. The leyline was very frustrating.

After all I was very suprised how bad I went against Maverick. I did about 300 goldfishes against that meta with second turn Thalia, second turn Gaddock and such stuff and still had ~95 win %. Variance may probably be the reason I lost the 2 games.

You didn't do well against Maverick because you didn't board against them. Empty the Warrens is usually a solid choice because they have maindeck hate of Thalia, Teeg, and GSZ into Teeg. Post-board they like to board in more bears or hate that comes down before the bears. I've run into stuff like Pithing Needle and Leyline of Sanctity. Empty the Warrens has the advantage of requiring a small spell chain or just natural EtW from what you have in your hand. Sometimes 8 tokens can get there but 10-14 is usually safer. This means you won't pass the turn Belcher into QPM or lose to a 2nd turn bear, or whatever other hate you might run into. Against Maverick I usually board:
-1 Slithermuse
-1 Young Wolf
-1 Wild Cantor
+1 Taiga
+2 Empty the Warrens

Taiga gives you access to red in the form of 4 Lotus Petal, 4 Land Grant, on occasion Chrome Mox and Wild Cantor, and in your build, Manamorphose. Last time I played against Maverick, I played Dryad Arbor go, into Land Grant + Belcher + activation for lethal turn 2. Then in game 2, 8 tokens from EtW on the draw go there cause I drew a Dryad Arbor for the last point of damage before he had enough blockers to close me out. Its actually so good that I might want to run more copies of EtW for that reason. Also, you had 3 copies in your board so had you boarded, your Maverick matchup would probably be better than with my build, where I play only 2 copies.

In your third round against Counterbalance.. fuck yeah dude this deck can ghost Counterbalance. D4's and Belcher dodge Spell Snare and Counterbalance so if you lay down enough perpetuals, they are actually the ones fighting the uphill battle in the post-board. Its much harder if they can answer your perpetuals though with EE or Deed, something to keep in mind cause you might not want to lay down too many if you expect it, like in CounterThopter (EE or Trinket Mage) or BUG Control (Deed).

Against RUG, this happens. People Spell Pierce stuff earlier than they should, forget or don't know to sandbag you on lands for Carpet, or play against the D4's wrong. Sometimes, its good for their clock just to let the D4 resolve that way they have twice the clock with a Delver or Goose. I honestly put this matchup as favorable post-board, however. They need to draw really well against you, sandbag you on lands, draw lots of countermagic and flip an early Delver to win this one. That or specialized tech in the post-board can turn the matchup in their favor, like Pithing Needle for example.

In round 5 against RUG, though, I'm a bit confused, you go for it and he Dazes, but you don't have the mana to pay for Daze despite a LED that you use to pay for Pact on the next turn. I can only assume you went for Culling the Weak as your acceleration and he countered it? Otherwise, you probably should have held on to Pact, or paid for Daze with LED. Paying for Pact triggers has ONLY worked for me once if I recall. Hilarious game actually. Dredge boards in 4 Force of Will in game 3. He Forces my Tendrils after I play a long D4 chain and takes 18 and I'm stuck on a LED and a Chrome Mox. I pay for Pact. Draw go for 3 turns and he mulled to 6 or something so he only has 4 cards and no way to discard anything. My draws are LED, Dark Ritual, Infernal Tutor. Lol. It gets there as I find the other Tendrils (when I played 2 ToA 3 Belcher config.).

In game 3, an early counterspell on Carpet can certainly be a game winning play. Other times, though, I've had my opponent counter it, and then I go off with the other 5 cards in hand either that turn or the next turn. I've found that more experienced players tend to let it resolve and sandbag you on lands instead. Otherwise, its just a Duress for G.

Game 6, board EtW. You got unlucky on the first hand. Then again, thats a really desperate line of play. Perhaps a mulligan would have helped you here. Also, if you are trying to go all in with Pact, thats a gamble. But you can also gamble the other way by waiting and hoping that she didn't have Thalia or Teeg in hand. Thats only 4 cards, and GSZ wouldn't have helped her here. I probably would have waited a turn with that hand.

Glad to see you've picked up the deck btw. It really is a force to be reckoned with.



Just as a side note, played a quick game against UW Stoneblade today. Won 2-1. I tried to grind him out in game 1. Landed an early Bayou into Wild Cantor, then Dryad Arbor. Beat him down to 12. Then I got greedy and lost game 1. After I was beating him down, I figured I can beat him down to 10 and then just hard cast the Tendrils in my hand for the kill even if he has a counterspell. I'm sitting on 2 Culling the Weaks and a D4, a Tendrils, and an IT. I pass the turn, and he EOT STP's my Cantor. I was close, but I would have been 1 spell short of killing him so I probably made the right call here. Either way he's sitting on a hand of 3 Force of Will. Game 2, I play Bayou Duress, see Force, Spell Pierce, Counterspell, Jace, Island, Snapcaster, Meddling Mage, taking Force, then Petal into Carpet of Flowers. Next turn I play IT to try to get a 3rd Carpet cause I had another in hand, which he spell Pierces. THen I lay down another Carpet and just start grinding him out, eventually get the kill through some countermagic. Game 3, I actually had the win in my opening hand if he didn't have Force; nice to know the deck can still do that in the post-board. I had access to IT+LED and Bayou/Mox into EtW. So had I gone for that line of play I might have had 2 perpetuals anyway, but I had another Land Grant in hand, so I decided to pass the turn instead and go for the grind game. I got to 5 perpetual mana sources whilst grinding him out, got a Carpet disenchanted, hard casted ESGs to beat him down. Its funny how good these can be against the slow control decks. I beat him down to 6 life as I resolved them one after the other on the 3rd and 4th turn. Eventually he landed Meddling Mage on Tendrils, though that wouldn't have helped. I kept grinding with D4's til I pushed through, he landed Batterskull. Either way, I had Past in Flames and Belcher in hand. Resolved the graveyard into a kill.

The Stoneblade matchup is pretty fun to play. Basically if they don't get an early Batterskull with SFM, I've found it to be a pretty easy grind game in the post-board. Without a clock, you just sit in topdeck mode, acquire more resources and lean on them til they fall over. I just wanted to point out how good these ESGs were. Granted, I killed him in the end with Belcher, but the ESGs put so much pressure on his lifetotal that had I drawn EtW, even a small storm count would have gotten there. Just something to think about when you are sitting on ESGs and perpetuals. Just cast them if you had nothing better to do. I've actually gotten there with them at tournaments before.


EDIT:
Thought I'd mention a few things..
The best thing we can look for in the new cards that get printed are green creatures for Pact, or IT targets. They are subtle things that I doubt WotC is paying attention to. Anything like:

(card name) G
Creature
When this creature is put into your graveyard, add one mana of any color to your mana pool.
1/1

I would definitely run this as a Pact target to use in conjunction with Culling the Weak.

Also, anything we might IT into in the post-board grind plan would be sick. Can't think of any examples though.

I'm thinking that Dark Confidant might be a nice supplement to the grind plan. Drawing 2 cards a turn is just devestating. Even if its out for as few as 2 turns, it could be enough to run the opponent out of countermagic sooner. Downside is that its not too good if we run into removal and its turns on Spell Snare, which comes in post-board, and can't counter anything but IT and Cabal Ritual. Thoughts on this? I think I'm going to give it a whirl in my next playtesting session.


EDIT 2:
@ Summerrain
I forgot to mention, PSI looks good in your metagame. You matchups were
R1: Maverick 80/20
R2: Maverick 80/20
R3: UW Counterbalance 50/50 (varies up +/- 10 based on their build)
R4: RUG Tempo 60/40
R5: RUG Tempo 60/40
R6: Maverick 80/20

Those are just rough estimates but Maverick should be AT LEAST 80/20 once you board in EtW. Unless you run into something like Mindbreak Trap (which nobody plays because its so bad against other storm combo decks) and then run into a bear, you should be able to win this one. I've won basically all the Maverick games I've played since I started boarding in EtW. People in my meta play a lot of Leyline and Pithing Needle in Maverick, cause they expect me now, so I have to play around it with EtW, and its been working 100/0 so far. At worst its 80/20 I'd say, at best 90/10. UW Counterbalance.. is slow. No clock to speak of so we grind hard, and we can play right through Counterbalance if he isn't playing EE on our perpetuals. Even if they land something like Cannonist, you can still play an acceleration spell and then Belcher, even LEDs because they are artifacts. Also, Counterbalance needs to play a lot of lands, so an early Carpet of Flowers basically seals it for you. I'd almost want to say 60/40 here (at least in my own experience) but that might be too cocky. RUG is definitely 60/40 if you play well. I've had a single mistake cost me the game before though. You have to think about it a lot, bait stuff. Carpet isn't quite as good here unless they don't know how good it is and choose not to sandbag you. Overall, though, I've won way more games against RUG than I've lost. Last time I remember losing to RUG was at the larger tournament. I misplayed in G1 to a loss, then G2 he draws all 4 Force of Will within 4 turns, and flipped Delver on turn 2.

So yeah, mostly matchups in your favor, and even Counterbalance, which is for storm combo what Garlic is to Vampires, is very winnable.

[Silent Requiem]

Well, I took PSI to the local GPT yesterday. I didn't expect to do anything but crash and burn, because my "testing" was about two evenings of goldfishing. I "borrowed" a list from kusumoto because it was tournament proven and I agreed with pretty much all of the flex choices he had made.

4 Cruel Bargain
4 Infernal Contract
4 Infernal Tutor
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Land Grant
3 Tendrils of Agony
1 Wild Cantor
1 Odious Trow
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
1 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Past in Flames
1 Slithermuse
1 Bayou
1 Dryad Arbor
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Culling the Weak
2 Manamorphose

SB

3 Carpet of Flowers
3 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Manamorphose
4 Empty the Warrens
4 Unmask

Round 1 - UW Hawk Control

Game 1: Neither of us know what the other is playing, and I keep a decent, but not turn 1, hand. In retrospect, that was a mistake. I should have mulled aggressively into a T1 win to take advantage of the surprise factor - he kept a hand without FoW.

Instead, I went for it after Spell Pierce went online. He was slow to win, however, but I had no practice at playing against control, so I think I tried to re-combo too early (I should have waited for a full grip). Even so, he had ridiculous card advantage thanks to Brainstorm/Jace/Squadron Hawk, so I don't think I would have won this even if I had been more patient.

Game 2: I took it as given that he would mull into FoW (he did), so I tried to mini-combo and take him by surprise. My first attempt worked, putting him on 12, and me on 28. Again, however, my subsequent attempts failed because I tried again too early. I think that this game would have been totally winnable with competent play.

Round 2 - TNT

Game 1: We had been chatting before the tournament, so we both knew what the other was playing. I felt I had the advantage here, because I was the faster deck. I therefor mulled into a T1 hand and immediately went off. My D4 fizzled, though, leaving me at 10 life for his turn 1 - he needed only 5 storm to kill me.

Fortunately, he had mulled to five (knowing he needed to be fast too), and his Brainstorm hit three lands. This is where TNT is weak compared to ANT - none of the lands were fetchlands! He was drawing dead cards for the next two turns. I took advantage of the time and went off before he saw any fresh cards.

Game 2: I expected discard in this game, because he was on the play. I kept my starting hand, even though it wasn't as fast as it might have been, so that I still had resources after having to pitch a card. Sure enough, T1 Duress hit my LED, but whatever I topdecked got me there for a T1 win.

Round 3 - UW Control

Game 1: I had been hoping to be paired with Enchantress or something similar, as I needed to get back on track. However, that was not to be. Although I knew what he was playing (and he knew what I was playing) I went for a T1 hand. Knowing what I'm playing and truly understanding how fast I can be are two different things, so he might have a hand without FoW. He did have FoW, in fact, drawing it in his opening seven.

The game ground on, with me playing far more patiently than in Round 1. He was able to keep me from going off until he landed Jace, however, where the card advantage finished me.

Game 2: This was a VERY interesting game, because I nearly won. Patient play, combined with my sideboard, turned the game into one long battle of attrition. His opening hand was absolutely nuts, with three FoW, Thalia and a Flusterstorm (plus two other blue cards). I fought through all that and more, with both of us frequently down to only one or two cards.

In the end, I had to go off before he landed lethal damage, with him holding Flusterstorm and Brainstorm. I had PIF in hand, and enough mana to play around Flusterstorm. I ramp up, play the PiF (which was predictably Flusterstormed), and proceeded to flashback the PIF. His "Hail Mary" Brainstorm found Counterspell, however, and I was shut down. A hugely exciting game.

Round 4 - Enchantress

Two silky smooth T1 wins. I opted to draw each game, as I doubted he had anything relevant to do on his first turn.

Due to some very strange play results (we had a lot of control decks draw against each other due to time constraints), my tie-breakers were enough to squeak me into the top 8.

Round 5 - Maverick

Game 1: I lost this game to myself. After playing a lot of control decks for the first time, I was too cautious about over committing. I had a T1 into a D4. I had the option of casting the D4 off a single ritual (committing only one card to the D4) or casting Cabal Ritual first, floating a single black. If I did that, however, I was down a second card if the D4 was countered (or wiffed). I chose to play it safe, only to draw the perfect kill - if I had black floating!

He then drops Thalia, slowing the game right down. I very nearly play around, but he is able to remove a card from my GY with Ooze, keeping me off threshold, and preventing the kill.

Game 2: I mull into a T1 kill and go of successfully.

Game 3: I mull to five, and keep a hand that is essentially four cards, because it has both EtW and Tendrils. I keep, however, because if I topdeck anything that produces mana I drop ten goblins on turn 1. This seems better than mulling to four and hoping for something better.

Of course, I topdeck another Tendrils, and he drops a T2 Teag.

General thoughts:

Whew. Final result 2-3, which is better than I expected, honestly. More importantly, I learnt ALOT about the deck that I couldn't get from goldfishing, or even casual games.

I had initially tried SITES, and hadn't really liked it. Changing to PSI was a last minute decision that limited my practice considerably. However, I'm really glad I made the change. I enjoyed playing PSI far, far more than SITES, which feels rather clunky and awkward by comparison. For that style of deck, TES is probably just better.

Odious Trow was hilarious. I had a number of opponents wondering just what the hell I was smoking when I played it, and many laughs were had as I tried to muddle my way through the combo. That said, the non/zero casting cost on my Tallmen in general made life a bit tricky, as a single mana source was not enough to open with Culling the Weak into a D4. It made me a little envious of LGSI and SITES at times.

Land Grant is a scary card - I'm used to playing a deck that relies on cunning tricks, so simply showing people my hand with a "stop me if you can" attitude was a real adjustment.

Despite how highly recommended Slithermuse is, I didn't like it. Of course, this probably just means I'm not good enough to abuse the card yet, which is fine. For me, though, it was usually just a dead card when I saw it. In the T1 wins it was just a dead card I couldn't even imprint for useful mana, and in the late game, where my opponent's hand was empty (or simply less full than mine) it was useless. For now, I'm going to go back to IGG.

In the sideboard, I have mixed feelings about Unmask. On one hand, the card disadvantage was absolutely awful in a matchup that is a battle of attrition - I could have won my second game in Round 3 if Unmask had been a Duress, because I would not have had to pitch Cabal Ritual to cast it. That said, there were other games where the flexibility of Unmask was useful, being able to hit Thalia in a way Duress cannot. Thoughtseize is the obvious compromise, but the lifeloss can be very relevant. If I ran more 0 cc tallmen, Cabal Therapy might be an option, but I'm not sure it fits this list.

Finally, I'd like a singleton sideboard out to Teag - probably Slaughter Pact. While it would not have helped me in my final game, due to the hand I had, Teag does not actually prevent my combo, just my kill conditions. Having even a single answer allows me to try chaining D4s until I find it, instead of just scooping.

[kusumoto]

How did you board in these games? I usually cut some tendrils for the EtWs against decks that might have leyline. If you have all four of the EtW in thats usually the best bet for teeg. That or unmask. Answering bears always feels so clunky :\

I have been a little annoyed by slithermuse lately as well. Its just hard to drop him remembering all of those game ones where he has drawn 6 - 7.

[Zodiark]

3 Belchers on side o.0 seems too much don't you think?
Lately I've been trying more than 1 ToA maindeck and it makes me feel confortable even if I fizzle 1º turn I can cast ToA and seat there for a while waiting for gas.

Kusumoto will you test the deck without Slithermuse? If you're going that way, tell me how it'll do, and for what card you changed :)

Silent Requiem how about Deathmark? It can deal with both Thalia and Gaddock, depending if they have Mother of Runes of course, or Infest that can get rid of them all at once!

[Silent Requiem]

How did you board in these games? I usually cut some tendrils for the EtWs against decks that might have leyline. If you have all four of the EtW in thats usually the best bet for teeg. That or unmask. Answering bears always feels so clunky :\

I have been a little annoyed by slithermuse lately as well. Its just hard to drop him remembering all of those game ones where he has drawn 6 - 7.

I always dropped something (usually a Tendrils) for a single EtW in case of Leyline.

Against Blue, I felt that Pact was too risky, and if I boarded out Pact, the Culling the Weak package was weakened to the point that it needed to be removed. So typically, -4 Pact, -4 Culling the Weak, -1 Odious Trow, -1 Wild Cantor, -1 Dryad Arbor, -1 Slithermuse (I was expecting long, grinding games) for +4 Unmask, +4 Carpet of Flowers, +3 Goblin Charbelcher, +1 ETW.

Against Enchantress & Maverick I simply boarded -1 Tendrils, +1 EtW for Leyline; I wanted to be as fast as possible. Against TNT, I didn't even bother with that - an EtW kill risked being too slow.

@ Zodiark: I actually really like the extra Belchers. Against Blue I just want to sit on Carpet of Flowers and just try to resolve bombs. Belcher is a must counter, and dodges Flusterstorm, Spell Snare and (usually) Spell Pierce. I also requires little in the way of resources, so if they Force it, I've usually 2-for-1'd them.

There is certainly a range of cards, but at the moment I think Slaughter Pact is best if I only want a singleton. Thalia is not going to let you chain D4s, so I'm unlikely to see an answer - I'm better off just trying to find Belcher or slow roll a combo chain by playing my artifacts out the turn before I combo (to reduce the additional costs during the combo turn).

Teag, on the other hand, can be tutored for with GSZ (meaning he is even more likely to put in an appearance), and only stops the kill condition, making tutoring or D4 chaining into an answer more plausible.

[Vacrix]

Well, I took PSI to the local GPT yesterday. I didn't expect to do anything but crash and burn, because my "testing" was about two evenings of goldfishing. I "borrowed" a list from kusumoto because it was tournament proven and I agreed with pretty much all of the flex choices he had made.



Round 1 - UW Hawk Control

Game 1: Neither of us know what the other is playing, and I keep a decent, but not turn 1, hand. In retrospect, that was a mistake. I should have mulled aggressively into a T1 win to take advantage of the surprise factor - he kept a hand without FoW.

Instead, I went for it after Spell Pierce went online. He was slow to win, however, but I had no practice at playing against control, so I think I tried to re-combo too early (I should have waited for a full grip). Even so, he had ridiculous card advantage thanks to Brainstorm/Jace/Squadron Hawk, so I don't think I would have won this even if I had been more patient.

Game 2: I took it as given that he would mull into FoW (he did), so I tried to mini-combo and take him by surprise. My first attempt worked, putting him on 12, and me on 28. Again, however, my subsequent attempts failed because I tried again too early. I think that this game would have been totally winnable with competent play.

Round 2 - TNT

Game 1: We had been chatting before the tournament, so we both knew what the other was playing. I felt I had the advantage here, because I was the faster deck. I therefor mulled into a T1 hand and immediately went off. My D4 fizzled, though, leaving me at 10 life for his turn 1 - he needed only 5 storm to kill me.

Fortunately, he had mulled to five (knowing he needed to be fast too), and his Brainstorm hit three lands. This is where TNT is weak compared to ANT - none of the lands were fetchlands! He was drawing dead cards for the next two turns. I took advantage of the time and went off before he saw any fresh cards.

Game 2: I expected discard in this game, because he was on the play. I kept my starting hand, even though it wasn't as fast as it might have been, so that I still had resources after having to pitch a card. Sure enough, T1 Duress hit my LED, but whatever I topdecked got me there for a T1 win.

Round 3 - UW Control

Game 1: I had been hoping to be paired with Enchantress or something similar, as I needed to get back on track. However, that was not to be. Although I knew what he was playing (and he knew what I was playing) I went for a T1 hand. Knowing what I'm playing and truly understanding how fast I can be are two different things, so he might have a hand without FoW. He did have FoW, in fact, drawing it in his opening seven.

The game ground on, with me playing far more patiently than in Round 1. He was able to keep me from going off until he landed Jace, however, where the card advantage finished me.

Game 2: This was a VERY interesting game, because I nearly won. Patient play, combined with my sideboard, turned the game into one long battle of attrition. His opening hand was absolutely nuts, with three FoW, Thalia and a Flusterstorm (plus two other blue cards). I fought through all that and more, with both of us frequently down to only one or two cards.

In the end, I had to go off before he landed lethal damage, with him holding Flusterstorm and Brainstorm. I had PIF in hand, and enough mana to play around Flusterstorm. I ramp up, play the PiF (which was predictably Flusterstormed), and proceeded to flashback the PIF. His "Hail Mary" Brainstorm found Counterspell, however, and I was shut down. A hugely exciting game.

Round 4 - Enchantress

Two silky smooth T1 wins. I opted to draw each game, as I doubted he had anything relevant to do on his first turn.

Due to some very strange play results (we had a lot of control decks draw against each other due to time constraints), my tie-breakers were enough to squeak me into the top 8.

Round 5 - Maverick

Game 1: I lost this game to myself. After playing a lot of control decks for the first time, I was too cautious about over committing. I had a T1 into a D4. I had the option of casting the D4 off a single ritual (committing only one card to the D4) or casting Cabal Ritual first, floating a single black. If I did that, however, I was down a second card if the D4 was countered (or wiffed). I chose to play it safe, only to draw the perfect kill - if I had black floating!

He then drops Thalia, slowing the game right down. I very nearly play around, but he is able to remove a card from my GY with Ooze, keeping me off threshold, and preventing the kill.

Game 2: I mull into a T1 kill and go of successfully.

Game 3: I mull to five, and keep a hand that is essentially four cards, because it has both EtW and Tendrils. I keep, however, because if I topdeck anything that produces mana I drop ten goblins on turn 1. This seems better than mulling to four and hoping for something better.

Of course, I topdeck another Tendrils, and he drops a T2 Teag.

General thoughts:

Whew. Final result 2-3, which is better than I expected, honestly. More importantly, I learnt ALOT about the deck that I couldn't get from goldfishing, or even casual games.

I had initially tried SITES, and hadn't really liked it. Changing to PSI was a last minute decision that limited my practice considerably. However, I'm really glad I made the change. I enjoyed playing PSI far, far more than SITES, which feels rather clunky and awkward by comparison. For that style of deck, TES is probably just better.

Odious Trow was hilarious. I had a number of opponents wondering just what the hell I was smoking when I played it, and many laughs were had as I tried to muddle my way through the combo. That said, the non/zero casting cost on my Tallmen in general made life a bit tricky, as a single mana source was not enough to open with Culling the Weak into a D4. It made me a little envious of LGSI and SITES at times.

Land Grant is a scary card - I'm used to playing a deck that relies on cunning tricks, so simply showing people my hand with a "stop me if you can" attitude was a real adjustment.

Despite how highly recommended Slithermuse is, I didn't like it. Of course, this probably just means I'm not good enough to abuse the card yet, which is fine. For me, though, it was usually just a dead card when I saw it. In the T1 wins it was just a dead card I couldn't even imprint for useful mana, and in the late game, where my opponent's hand was empty (or simply less full than mine) it was useless. For now, I'm going to go back to IGG.

In the sideboard, I have mixed feelings about Unmask. On one hand, the card disadvantage was absolutely awful in a matchup that is a battle of attrition - I could have won my second game in Round 3 if Unmask had been a Duress, because I would not have had to pitch Cabal Ritual to cast it. That said, there were other games where the flexibility of Unmask was useful, being able to hit Thalia in a way Duress cannot. Thoughtseize is the obvious compromise, but the lifeloss can be very relevant. If I ran more 0 cc tallmen, Cabal Therapy might be an option, but I'm not sure it fits this list.

Finally, I'd like a singleton sideboard out to Teag - probably Slaughter Pact. While it would not have helped me in my final game, due to the hand I had, Teag does not actually prevent my combo, just my kill conditions. Having even a single answer allows me to try chaining D4s until I find it, instead of just scooping.

Nice. Glad to see you've picked up the deck. The PSI list is much harder to play than SITES. SITES is rather straight forward. PSI can bail the pilot out quite a lot but you need to know what you're doing and make some tough decisions; my opponents ask me to hurry up quite a lot, namely once we've moved to post-board against U.dec. Since you're new to the deck, heres a discussion of your matchups.


R1 - UW Hawk Control
I've played against builds like this a few times. Basically they have no conceivable way of racing you unless they get either SFM --> Batterskull, or perhaps a Sword on a Squadron Hawk. All those things take a lot of time though. They often play Counterspell so they don't sink all of their mana to start dealing you damage until they feel safe, which is the opposite emotion that SI tends to evoke. Unless they get ballsy and drop an early SFM, I wouldn't expect them to do anything until turn 4; however, usually I see them drop something much later. By then you ideally have some perpetual resources and can start grinding. In the U matchups, I keep hands all the time that have no business. Mana sources, especially perps, are the key to winning this game because you have to think in the long run. In this case, you have to resort to grinding them out. Even if you think you can get a mini-tendrils, like you did, I wouldn't bother. Instead use your spare mana and resources to acquire more resources. I'd much rather play IT to get another protection spell and ensure a Belcher kill. The mini-tendrils does have an application; when your life total is in jeopardy and you can't afford to continue setting up.

Last time I played against UW Hawk Control, I was grinding him out and he top decked the only copy of Entreat the Angels for the Miracle in both games. I had access to Belcher go, on my turn after running him out of countermagic in both games. Seriously, they have to get lucky as shit to win this one. Also, against Hawk Control, they are so slow that if you have the hand for it, you can just grind him in game 1 as well. You have far fewer resources, but if you have like Chrome Mox + Land, I'd try it.

R2 - TNT
This deck is quite slow but they are faster than aggro and run disruption. I would also try to go off on turn 1, or at least attempt to lay down Belcher and pass that way it can't get hit by discard. I'd put this matchup at positive, especially since they can't do any tricks with Chants to fuck up your special chain. TES is pretty even though. We are consistently faster but if their disruption is effective (sometimes the discard isn't) then we are in trouble if they can follow up with a spell chain.

R3 - UW Control
I'm guessing it was Stoneblade. The attrition battle in immensely fun to play. Seems like it was pretty close. Best thing you can do here is remember that sometimes its good to wait so you can play around Daze and Spell Pierce. Also, with enough spare mana, ESGs can put pressure on the opponent to make a topdecked EtW stronger. Also, its important to hold on to Petals, LED, etc. sometimes unless you expect Thalia, because those are important to raising the spell count for a threatening EtW.

Honestly though, without experience I wouldn't expect you to do that well with the grind plan. It can be tricky. You have to bait, play Veils to turn on Carpets, hold on to Duresses til they are most effective, make good choices with Chrome Mox imprint, etc. Its tough. I play it all the time against BUG control with Counterbalance (which is one of the hardest matchups) and I've managed to pull that matchup up to about 50/50, even with Counterbalance, though without counterbalance sometimes I just steam roll him post-board for multiple games in a row.

R4 - Enchantress
Bye.

Make sure to board in EtW against him though. In last time I played Enchantress, that was the only reason I could play through Leyline of Sanctity turn 0.

R5 - Maverick
Yes in that case you have to remember that against certain decks, like control, not having mana after your D4 isn't that important because even in game 1, one D4 can just help you grind. I actually prefer this that way if my shit gets countered, they basically got me 2 for 3 if I used a Lotus Petal as the IMS, and only 2 for 2 if I used a Chrome Mox or Land Grant. Invest one more card, and you are giving them card advantage. This is different against Maverick though. If you have more perpetual resources, sometimes its good to hold onto a ritual just in case you want to go for a 2nd attempt. They do nothing relevant until turn 2 anyway. If you have acceleration like Drit x1, Crit x2, I would definitely use Drit + Crit to have B floating after the D4. Then you only need one more mana and can likely try to manipulate the hand to give you threshold first.

Mulligans can occasionally give you nothing, but sometimes you go too low and should have kept a 6er instead of a 5er; this happens more often when you are chasing a turn 1 kill. Pass the turn plays are safer in this matchup as long as you have the option to play Belcher pass; in Kusumoto's build though, thats not possible til the post-board which means you basically want to be on the draw for that 8th card. I'd board out Tendrils for Belchers here. They are better in this matchup because you can just land one and then pass the turn; QPM isn't online til turn 3. Tendrils doesn't have the advantage of pass the turn plays; its a business spell that requires other business spells. In his original list, Breathweapon (the original creator of the Pact list), actually boarded in Belchers in the aggro matchup. I think initially he played Tendrils maindeck, then boarded in Belchers against aggro. I'm not sure he knew about Carpet of Flowers back then.



Slithermuse
The card is great because it allows IT + LED + 3 mana to produce 7 new cards if you are on the play. Sometimes I've gotten there drawing 5 or 6 cards as well. It nets you more than a D4 even on the draw so if you don't have much mana after IT/LED and you are playing against stax or discard or something, having access to Slithermuse means you'll be drawing more cards than if you had to find a D4 instead. You can definitely play IGG in that slot. Personally I dropped Young Wolf in my list for IGG so I'm running all 3 atm, IGG, PiF, Slithermuse. So far, I've been very happy with IGG in the deck again. I've drawn it naturally to get kills with Tendrils and tutored it up with IT to get the kill. I played on Cockatrice maybe like 3 rounds the other day against Maverick; all turn 1 kills. IGG is boss. Back to Slithermuse though, its basically only a IT/LED target, much like PiF. It just has a different use. PiF and IGG have different requirements; 5 mana and certain cards in the graveyard. IGG really likes LEDs and PiF really like Dark Rituals and Cabal Rituals. Slithermuse, is 4 mana and just requires you to be on the play. You can drop it but you might after playing the deck a bit more find yourself wanting it to bail you out of certain situations. Also, I've gotten this hand a bunch:

Dark Ritual, Lotus Petal, LED, IT, +X other cards

You can go off from as few as 4 cards with this hand. Also, there have been a few games where I draw it with a Wild Cantor or Summoner's Pact in hand, and just D7 after the initial D4, into a kill. Then I have to wait something like 10 solid minutes while my opponent runs to his car to get a new pair of pants.

I really dislike Unmask. I've had much more success with Duress because it only invests one card and its better in the grind plan. Unmask seems like something that would be better if you plan on going off THAT turn. If I recall Breathweapon tried Unmask in his original list for that sort of protection spell and liked Pact of Negation better. I've pretty much settled on Duress though. As long as you can play a perpetual resource or ideally, two, you can just wait a turn. Granted, Duress doesn't grab bears but you don't run into bears too often against control.

As for Teeg.. I'd be more afraid of Thalia than Teeg. Teeg/GSZ-->Teeg is a problem but its complimented by Thalia. Sometimes they'll drop one and sometimes the other. Thalia means you won't be able to stumble into Slaughter Pact with your D4s. I find trying to prepare for bears is unreliable. You can mulligan for anti-hate like Pact but you might not have a hand that can actually win. Also, even if you get rid of one, they might have another before you can go off. Honestly, I think if you expect Thalia you could probably run Dread of Night. One stops Thalia and slows the deck down a bit. Lay down 2 and you're safe from any bears the deck could play.

[Zodiark]

After looking at Infest and seeing that it's too costy to play against Maverick, and as far as I hate Slaughter Pact (another Pact noooeeesss) I'll try this sideboard when I got enough time:

3x Autumn's Veil
4x Carpet of Flowers
3x Duress > Only 3 Duress because I believe Autumn's Veil can deal with the other threats that I'd Duress
2x Empty the Warrens > Using 2 Tendrils + 1 Belcher main right now, so when Leyline comes Iswitch for EtW
1x Past in Flames > Replace IGG against Blue
2x Dread of Night > Lets try this then, 1 slot only against Maverick seemed to confident

[Vacrix]

I prefer to stick to 4 Duress, 2 Autumn's Veil. Duress can grab Walkers, Counterbalance, as well as deal with Countermagic. Also, in general you have better access to black mana than you do to green, especially since you really want ESGs to cast Carpet of Flowers. Veil just smooths everything out adding more green cards to use with ESGs so they aren't just used with Cabal Rituals. Veil might stop countermagic a little better on occasion, and protect the whole turn, meaning its a must counterspell. Sometimes you can even draw out multiple countermagic with it if you play well. Best I got with it last tournament was Spell Pierce into Daze, into Daze, and then it resolved. Regardless, I've still liked Duress better in most cases. It also doesn't have to be played on the turn you go off, and you can do tricks like first play Dark Ritual, then play Duress after you know you have some initial mana to work with to cast some more rituals, like, say, a protected, threshed, Cabal Ritual.

I'd try Dread of Night in playtesting first before going to a tournament. I kinda said it off hand but I doubt its playable. Boarding in 2 might as well just be more copies of EtW that way you have a better chance of making a bunch of tokens without having to draw any cards or hit 7 for Belcher. EtW is honestly really lax on the deck. You just need the red source, hence, I play a post-board Taiga against Maverick.

[DarthVicious]

I prefer to stick to 4 Duress, 2 Autumn's Veil. Duress can grab Walkers, Counterbalance, as well as deal with Countermagic. Also, in general you have better access to black mana than you do to green, especially since you really want ESGs to cast Carpet of Flowers. Veil just smooths everything out adding more green cards to use with ESGs so they aren't just used with Cabal Rituals. Veil might stop countermagic a little better on occasion, and protect the whole turn, meaning its a must counterspell. Sometimes you can even draw out multiple countermagic with it if you play well. Best I got with it last tournament was Spell Pierce into Daze, into Daze, and then it resolved. Regardless, I've still liked Duress better in most cases. It also doesn't have to be played on the turn you go off, and you can do tricks like first play Dark Ritual, then play Duress after you know you have some initial mana to work with to cast some more rituals, like, say, a protected, threshed, Cabal Ritual.

I'd try Dread of Night in playtesting first before going to a tournament. I kinda said it off hand but I doubt its playable. Boarding in 2 might as well just be more copies of EtW that way you have a better chance of making a bunch of tokens without having to draw any cards or hit 7 for Belcher. EtW is honestly really lax on the deck. You just need the red source, hence, I play a post-board Taiga against Maverick.

Dread of Night, huh? Interesting... I picked up 3 of those for my Esperblade board... and now... LOL I'm looking at my Goblin deck, salivating over Cavern of Souls.

Anyway... That Hatred/Uktabi Drake SB plan I had? It only got easier to cast after a draw 4 or two... which defeated the point entirely. It's rarer to turn 1 someone like that than it is to Tendrils them. It turned out to need so many cards it just wasn't worth it.

I've thought about running land *GASP!* in the board for a while now. Like... 4 Gemstone Mine kind of land. 4 Autumn's Veil, 4 Gemstone Mine, 4 Something Else That Is Awesome (HINT: Carpet of Flowers), and 3 Something Else That Is Most Likely Less Awesome, Yet Still Useful.

More land would mean more perpetual resources. However, Belcher gets weaker, and at that point, Empty the Warrens would become Something Else That Is Awesome.

[Vacrix]

If your meta is infested with DnT and Maverick or UW Control is running Thalia, or like against Lingering Souls in Esperblade, I can see post-board Dread of Night being pretty good. Its most applicable though against the control decks because usually you can just race the bears or EtW for which such decks can only answer with Terminus. I've run into Wrath of God against Planeswalker control once, but I had 3 Duress's and a Bayou in my opening hand, kinda misplayed with the Duress's taking a Spell Snare instead of WoG thinking I could use the last Duress for WoG, and then he moved it to the top with Brainstorm on the next turn. So in hindsight, I could have won that game. Still, Dread of Night, my meta doesn't call for it, but it really is niche sideboard tech for a specific metagame.

Hatred/Drake opens you up to too much hate, ie. STP on the Drake or Spell Pierce/Daze on Hatred which is too high CC for you to really play around those. D4's are safer in general because they only cost BBB so you can play around Spell Pierce sometimes with ESGs or LED.

I've really been liking my post-board lands. Usually if I misfire with Belcher its because I misplayed earlier and just going for it out of desperation. If you misfire early it doesn't really matter because you can go for another activation. Against the slower control decks, I've landed a Belcher as early as turn 2-4 after Duress or with Veil, or just so many perpetuals that I play around Spell Pierce with a LED and then activate it in 1-2 turns. Taiga has been best for getting the red source for EtW or sometimes Past in Flames. Belcher gets weaker but Taiga means you only need to hit 10 cards. Sometimes I've hit Taiga like 12 cards deep and thats enough to get there. I'd run Bayous/Taigas, etc. before I would run Gemstone Mine because you can find them with Land Grants, meaning Land Grants aren't dead when you draw them.

[Vacrix]

I'm just getting back into Magic after several years away from it. I used to play 1-land Belcher in Vintage, but the Legacy Belcher deck seems far less interesting. I've recently picked up PSI, which is far more interesting and fun to play for me. But it seems to me that the claims of 60%+ turn 1 wins are nonsense. I consider myself a fairly competent combo player, but I'm perfectly willing to entertain the idea that I'm just missing something (not seeing complicated play lines, making poor mulligan decisions, etc.). Below I've given the current list that I'm testing along with 30 sample hands. I haven't left anything out of these; they contain every mulligan and every play. I'd love it if some players who are more experienced with this deck could point out poor mulligan/keep decisions or missed plays that might have affected the T1 win rate.

Is there a way to hide text? I tried [hide] and [spoiler], neither of which worked. So I apologize for this ridiculously long post.


List
4 Cruel Bargain
4 Infernal Contract
4 Infernal Tutor
4 Goblin Charbelcher
2 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
1 Slithermuse

1 Odious Trow
1 Wild Cantor
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Summoner's Pact

4 Culling the Weak
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Chrome Mox
4 Land Grant

1 Bayou
1 Dryad Arbor



Some notes:

• Some quick stats: 30 hands. 8 T1 wins (about 27%). In 19 hands (about 63%), I took a mulligan at least once. Five of the T1 wins (1, 7, 11, 19, 29) were with 7-card starting hands. The other three (4, 8, 26) were with 6-card hands. Although I'm aware it's theoretically possible, I never saw a 3-, 4-, or 5-card T1 win.
• As far as I can tell, no 2-card opening hand could get a T1 win, even theoretically. For any starting hand with more than 3 cards, if there is 0 chance of a T1 win, then taking the mulligan is the correct decision for maximizing the T1 win percentage. That having been said, in hands 2, 3, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 20, 22, and 23, I kept 4- or 5-card hands with 0 chance of a T1 win. I don't think this seriously affected my T1 win rate (and, if I had taken a mulligan for each of these hands, I would need to win on T1 every single time for my total T1 win rate to hit 60%). But, going forward, I will mulligan (down to 3) automatically whenever I'm faced with a hand with no possibility of a T1 win.
• I have only identified 5 hands (3, 12, 14, 16, 24) where I chose to mulligan a hand with which a T1 win was not clearly impossible. These were of two types. Either they required very risky Pacts (e.g., Pact for mana to play Belcher and activate with 2 lands left in the deck, a very low percentage play). Or they could play a D4, but only with no mana floating (and sometimes after a Pact). I'm not sure how aggressively to mulligan the latter hands. Playing a D4 with 0 mana floating vs. 1+ mana floating makes a big difference to your ability to continue. I don't think I ever (in the hands below) played a D4 with no mana floating (or mana already in hand that I could rely on) and was able to pull out a win. In hands 6 and 10, I kept opening hands which could play a D4 with no mana floating, and neither led to T1 wins.
• I gave up after T5, and marked those games losses. Not all hands marked "Lose" below are Pact deaths.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sample Hands:

1. (T1) LG, Petal, DRit, CRit, Bargain, CtW, Tendrils: Keep

T1: LG (1) -> Arbor. Petal (2, B). CtW (Arbor) -> (3, BBBB). Bargain (4, B).
Draw: Tutor, Contract, Bargain, Petal.
DRit (5, BBB). Tutor (6, B) -> CRit. Petal (7, BB).
CRit with threshold (8, BBBBB). CRit with threshold (9, BBBBBBBB). Tendrils for 20.


2. (Lose) CRit, Tutor, 2xBelcher, 3xContract: Mull.
Bayou, Arbor, Petal, Mox, DRit, Cantor: Mull.
ESG, CRit, Tutor, 2xBelcher: Mull.
Arbor, CtW, CRit, Contract: Keep.

T1: Arbor, pass.
T2: Draw CtW, pass.
T3: Draw ESG, pass.
T4: Draw Contract, pass.
T5: Draw DRit, pass.
Give up.


3. (T3) Arbor, Mox, ESG, DRit, Tutor, Belcher, Slithermuse: Mull.
Petal, CRit, Pact, Bargain, Belcher, Slithermuse: Mull. (?, I'm not super comfortable using Pact to lead into a D4 with no mana floating and no mana sources.)
LG, LG, Pact, PiF, Tendrils: Mull.
DRit, LED, Bargain, Belcher: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw Tutor, pass.
T3: Draw LG. LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). LED (2, B). DRit (3, BBB). Bargain, crack LED in response (4, BBB).
Draw: ESG, CRit, 2xTutor. (6 in graveyard.)
ESG (4, BBBG). Tutor (5, BB) -> CRit. CRit (6, BBBBB). CRit (7, BBBBBBBB).
Tutor (8, BBBBBB) -> Tutor. Tutor (9, BBBB) -> Tendrils. Tendrils for 20.


4. (T1) Bayou, Arbor, Mox, Trow, Contract, 2xTutor: Mull.
LG, Petal, 2xCRit, LED, Bargain: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). Petal (2, BB). 2xCRit (4, BBBB). LED (5, BBBB). Bargain, crack LED in response (6, BBBB).
Draw: Petal, DRit, Trow, Tutor.
Petal (7, BBBBB). DRit (8, BBBBBBB). Trow (9, BBBBBB). Tutor (10, BBBB) -> Tendrils. Tendrils for 22.


5. (T2) LG, Petal, ESG, DRit, CRit, Contract, Tutor: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Contract (3).
Draw: Mox, Petal, Tutor, Belcher. (I can't get that Belcher out of hand to use Tutors effectively. Best I can do appears to be:)
Mox (Tutor), (B). Petal (BB). CRit (BBB). ESG (BBBG). Belcher, pass.
T2: Draw LED. LED. Petal (B). Tap Mox (BB). Tutor, crack LED in response -> Arbor. Activate Belcher for the win.


6. (Lose) LG, DRit, CtW, Contract, 2xBargain, Tendrils: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Contract (3).
Draw: DRit, 2xCtW, Contract. (No initial mana.)
Pass (8 cards in hand, discard CtW).
T2: Draw Petal. Tap Bayou (B). DRit (1, BBB). Contract (2).
Draw: Mox, ESG, CtW, Tutor. (Can't get to BBB for another D4. Best I can see is to plan ahead:)
Petal (B). ESG (BG). Tutor -> Mox. Mox (CtW). (I only play one now so the other counts towards storm next turn.) Pass.
T3: Draw Bargain. Mox (CtW). Tap 2xMox and Bayou (1, BBB). Bargain (2).
Draw: 2xPetal, Mox, Belcher.
Petal (3, B). Petal (4, B). Mox (Bargain) (5, BBB). Bargain (6, 1 life).
Draw: CRits, Contract, Bargain, Tendrils.
Give up.


7. (T1) LG, Mox, Pact, ESG, CtW, LED, Belcher: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (B). Pact (2, B) -> Trow. Mox (ESG) (3, BG). Trow (4, B). CtW (Trow) (5, BBBB).
Belcher (6). LED (7). Sac LED to activate Belcher (1 land left) for 36.


8. (T1) Bayou, LG, Mox, ESG, Pact, DRit, LED: Mull.
Mox, ESG, CRit, 2xLED, Tutor: Keep.

T1: Mox (Crit) (1, B). ESG (1, BG). 2xLED (3, BG). Tutor, cracking 2xLED in response (4, BBBUUU) -> Slithermuse. Evoke Slithermuse (5, BB).
Draw: Mox, Petal, CRit, Contract, 2xBargain, Tendrils.
CRit (6, BBB). Contract (7).
Draw: Cantor, 2xCtW, Contract.
Petal (8, G). Cantor (9). Mox (Bargain) (10, B). CtW (Cantor) (11, BBBB). Tendrils for 24.


9. (Lose) LG, 2xMox, 2xPetal, Tutor, Belcher: Mull.
2xESG, Petal, CRit, Contract, Tutor: Keep.

T1: Petal (1, B). ESG (1, BG). CRit (2, BBB). Contract (3).
Draw: Pact, CtW, Contract, Belcher. (One mana short of using CtW into Contract.)
Pass.
T2: Draw CtW. Pass.
T3: Draw Tutor. Discard Belcher. Pass.
T4: Draw DRit. Pact (1) -> Cantor. ESG (1, G). Cantor, sac (2, B). DRit (3, BBB). Contract (4).
Draw: CRit, 2xLED, LG.
No way to continue. Die to Pact.


10. (T2) Bayou, ESG, CRit, Contract, 2xBargain, Tutor: Keep.

T1: Bayou (B). ESG (BG). CRit (1, BBB). Contract (2).
Draw: LG, Pact, 2xDRit. (Can't continue.) Pass.
T2: Draw Contract. LG (1) -> Arbor. Tap Bayou (1, B). 2xDRit (3, BBBBB). Contract (4, BB).
Draw: DRit, CRit, Cantor, Contract. (6 cards in graveyard.)
DRit (5, BBBB). Tutor (6, BB) -> CRit. 2xCRit (8, BBBBBBBB). Contract (9, BBBBB).
Draw: ESG, CtW, LED, Tendrils.
Tendrils for 20.


11. (T1) LG, ESG, CtW, 2xDRit, Bargain, Tendrils: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). 2xDRit (3, BBBBB). Bargain (4, BB).
Draw: Cantor, LED, PiF, Contract.
ESG (4, BBG). Cantor (5, BB). CtW (Cantor) (6, BBBBB). LED (7, BBBBB). Contract, sac LED in response (8, BBRRR).
Draw: 2xMox, ESG, Tutor.
Mox (Tutor) (9, BBBRRR). Flashback Pif (10, B). Flashback 2xDRit (12, BBBBB). Flashback Tendrils for 26.


12. (T2) Mox, ESG, DRit, CRit, Contract, PiF, Slithermuse: Mull.
Mox, CtW, Trow, Bargain, Tutor, Belcher: Mull.
ESG, DRit, CtW, LED, Contract: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw Pact. Pact (1) -> Cantor. ESG (1, G). Cantor, sac (2, B). DRit (3, BBB). LED (4, BBB). Contract, sac LED in response (5, BBB).
Draw: Petal, CtW, Trow, Contract.
Petal (6, BBB). Trow (7, BB). CtW (Trow) (8, BBBBB). Contract (9, BB).
Draw: LG, Mox, PiF, Tendrils.
LG (10, BB) -> Bayou (10, BBB). Sac Petal (10, BBBB). Tendrils for 22.


13. (T2) DRit, 2xLED, Tutor, Contract, Belcher, Slithermuse: Mull.
ESG, Pact, CRit, 2xLED, Contract: Mull.
Petal, Pact, DRit, CRit, Tendrils: Mull.
LG, LG, DRit, Belcher: Keep.

T1: LG -> Arbor. LG -> Bayou. Pass.
T2: Draw LED. Bayou (B). DRit (BBB). LED. Tap Arbor (BBBG). Belcher. Sac LED to activate Belcher with 0 lands left.


14. (Lose) ESG, Petal, CRit, Trow, Cantor, Bargain, Tutor: Mull.
Petal, 2xESG, DRit, Bargain, Tendrils: Keep.

T1: Petal (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Bargain (3).
Draw: Bayou, 2xPetal, LED.
Bayou. Pass.
T2: Draw DRit. Pass.
T3: Draw Pact. Petal. Pass.
T4: Draw Arbor. Arbor. Pass.
T5: Draw Pact.
Give up.


15. (T2) 2xESG, 2xCRit, CtW, LED, Belcher: Mull.
LG, 2xPetal, CtW, DRit, Tutor: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Arbor. Petal (1, B). CtW (Arbor) (2, BBBB). DRit (3, BBBBBB). Petal, sac (4, BBBBBBU). Tutor (4, BBBBU) -> Slithermuse. Evoke Slithermuse (5, B).
Draw: LG, Mox, Cantor, LD, Bargain, 2xBelcher. (Can't cast Bargain or Belcher.)
Pass.
T2: Draw DRit. LG -> Bayou (B). DRit (BBB). Mox (Cantor) (BBBG). Belcher. LED, activate Belcher with 0 lands left.


16. (T5) Mox, 2xESG, Pact, LED, Contract, Belcher: Mull. (Can't play the Bargain. Could only play and activate Belcher with 2 lands left and 1 mana source after a Pact.)
Bayou, Mox, Cantor, CRit, CtW, Belcher: Mull.
DRit, CtW, LED, Bargain, Contract: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw Contract. Pass.
T3: Draw LED. Pass.
T4: Draw ESG. LED. Pass.
T5: Draw Mox. Mox (Contract) (1, B). LED (2, B). DRit (3, BBB). ESG (3, BBBG). Contract, sac both LED in response (4, BBBBBBG).
Draw: Mox, Tutor, Bargain, Belcher.
Bargain (5,BBBG).
Draw: Arbor, LG, CRit, Belcher.
Tutor (6, BB) -> CRit. Arbor. LG (7, BB) -> Bayou. 2xCrit (9, BBBBBBBB). Belcher, activate with 0 land left.


17. (T4) ESG, Cantor, Tutor, Bargain, 2xContract, Tendrils: Mull.
Mox, DRit, Tutor, PiF, 2xBelcher: Mull.
Bayou, ESG, Pact, CtW, DRit: Mull.
Mox, LED, Tutor, Tutor: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw PiF. Pass.
T3: Draw LG. LG (1) -> Bayou (1,B). LED (2,B). Mox (Tutor) (3, BB). Tutor, sac LED in response (4, BBB) -> Contract. Contract (5).
Draw: Arbor, Petal, CtW, Belcher.
Pass.
T4: Draw Petal. Arbor. Tap Mox (B). CtW (Arbor) (BBBB). Belcher. 2xPetal, sac (BB). Tap Bayou (BBB). Activate Belcher with 0 lands left.


18. (T4) LG, Petal, 2xCtW, 2xPact, Tendrils: Mull.
LG, CRit, Contract, PiF, Belcher, Tendrils: Mull.
2xCtW, 2xLED, Bargain: Mull.
Petal, Mox, Bargain, Belcher: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw Mox. Pass.
T3: Draw DRit. Petal, sac (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Bargain (3).
Draw: LG, Petal, Tutor, PiF.
LG -> Bayou (B). Petal, sac (BB). 2xMox (Tutor, PiF) (BBBR). Belcher. Pass.
T4: Draw CtW. Tap Bayou, 2xMox (BBR). Activate Belcher (1 land left) for 32.


19. (T1) Mox, 2xCRit, 2xDRit, Bargain, Belcher: Keep.

T1: Mox (CRit) (1, B). 2xDRit (3, BBBBB). Bargain (4, BB).
Draw: DRit, Contract, Bargain, Tendrils.
DRit (5, BBBB). CRit (6, BBBBB). Bargain (7, BB).
Draw: ESG, CRit, CtW, PiF. (6 cards in graveyard. I don't think I can get thresh before playing this CRit.)
CRit (8, BBB). Contract (9).
Draw: Bayou, Pact, Cantor, Contract.
Bayou (9, B). Pact (10, B) -> ESG (10, BG). Cantor (11, B). CtW (Cantor) (12, BBBB). Tendrils for 26.


20. (Lose) Pact, 2xESG, CtW, 2xLED, Belcher: Mull.
LG, 2xPetal, ESG, CRit, LED: Mull.
Mox, CtW, CRit, PiF, Belcher: Mull.
Pact, CtW, Tutor, Bargain: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw CtW. Pass.
T3: Draw LED. Pass.
T4: Draw Contract. Pass.
T5: Draw Mox. LED (1). Mox (CtW) (2, B). Pact (3, B) -> Arbor. CtW (Arbor) (4, BBBB). Bargain, sac LED in response (5, BBBB).
(Note: Tutor -> IGG here would be an auto-win, but I don't play an IGG. Also, if this were T1, T1 -> Slithermuse would be better.)
Draw: Mox, ESG, Pact, CtW. (I don't play Witness.)
Fizzle and die to Pact.


21. (Lose) Mox, Petal, Pact, CRit, Tutor, 2xBargain: Keep.

T1: Mox (Bargain) (1, B). Petal, sac (2, BB). CRit (3, BBB). Bargain (4).
(Note: alternative is to Pact -> ESG, use Mox and ESG to pay for CRit, and save Petal for starting mana after Bargain. But that seems a bit risky.)
Draw: CtW, LED, Bargain, LED. (Note: alternative play above would have killed me.)
Pass.
T2: Draw Slithermuse. Pact (1) -> Arbor. Tap Mox (1, B). CtW (Arbor) (2, BBBB). LED (3, BBBB). Bargain, sac LED in response (4, BBBB).
Draw: Mox, ESG, Tutor, Bargain.
Bargain (5, B).
Draw: LG, Mox, Petal, CtW.
(Note: current hand is 2xMox, Petal, LG, ESG, CtW, Tutor. Storm is 5. B floating. 2 life. I don't see how I can continue. It would take half my hand to pay for Pact, and then I'm topdecking.)


22. (T6) 2xLG, 2xPetal, ESG, Cantor, DRit: Mull.
Bayou, Mox, CtW, Bargain, Belcher, Tendrils: Mull.
Mox, CtW, Contract, 2xBargain: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw ESG. Pass.
T3: Draw Petal. Pass.
T4: Draw Tendrils. Petal. Pass.
T5: Draw Bayou. Bayou (B). Sac Petal (BB). Mox (Bargain) (1, BBB). Contract (2).
Draw: LG, DRit, CtW, Belcher. Discard Tendrils. Pass.
T6: Draw LED. LG -> Arbor. Tap Bayou, Mox (BB). DRit (BBBB). CtW (Arbor) (BBBBBBB). Belcher (BBB). Activate with 0 land left.


23. (Lose) Pact, DRit, CtW, 2xContract, 2xBelcher: Mull.
Pact, DRit, LED< Contract, Belcher, Tendrils: Mull.
DRit, Mox, Pact, LED: Mull.
DRit, CRit, Bargain, Slithermuse: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw ESG. Pass.
T3: Draw DRit. Pass.
T4: Draw Tendrils. Pass.
T5: Draw ESG.
Give up.


24. (T3) Petal, 2xPact, CtW, CRit, Tendrils, Belcher: Mull.
2xPact, CRit, Cantor, Tutor, Bargain: Mull. (2xPact -> 2xESG, Cantor, CRit, Bargain floating nothing is very risky.)
Bayou, Mox, ESG, DRit, Bargain: Keep.

T1: Bayou (B). DRit (1, BBB). Bargain (2).
Draw: LG, LED, Tutor, Belcher.
LG -> Arbor. Pass.
T2: Draw Contract. Arbor. Pass.
T3: Draw Trow. Mox (Trow) (B). ESG (BG). Tap Bayou and Arbor (BBGG). Belcher. LED, sac to activate Belcher with 0 land left.


25. (T2) Bayou, Mox, Petal, LED, Tendrils, Belcher, Tutor: Keep.

T1: Bayou (B). Mox (Tendrils) (1, BB). LED (2, BB). Petal (3, BB). Tutor, sac LED in response (4, BBB) -> Contract. Contract (5).
Draw: LG, DRit, CtW, Mox.
Pass.
T2: Draw Slithermuse. LG (1) -> Arbor. Mox (nothing) (2). Tap Mox (2, B). DRit (3, BBB). Tap Bayou (3, BBBB). Sac Petal (3, BBBBU). Evoke Slithermuse (4, B). In response to trigger, CtW (Slithermuse) (5). "Leaves play" trigger:
Draw: Pact, CRit, CtW, Trow, Belcher. (9 cards in graveyard.)
CtW resolves (5, BBBB). CRit (BBBBBBB). Belcher (BBB). Activate with 0 lands left.


26. (T1) Mox, Trow, 2xCtW, Tutor, Bargain, Belcher: Mull.
LG, DRit, CRit, LED, Contract, Tendrils: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). CRit (3, BBBB). LED (4, BBBB). Contract, sac LED in response (5, BBBB).
Draw: CRit, 2xLED, Bargain. (6 cards in graveyard.)
CRit (6, BBBBB). Bargain, sac LEDs in response (7, BBBBBUUU).
Draw: Mox, Pact, ESG, Bargain.
Bargain (8, BBUUU).
Draw: Mox, Petal, CtW, Tendrils.
Petal (9, BBUUU). Tendrils for 20.


27. (T5) Arbor, Petal, ESG, 2xDRit, Tutor, Tendrils: Mull. (Can't get rid of that Tendrils to make use of the Tutor.)
2xESG, Petal, LED, Contract, Bargain: Mull.
LG, 2xPact, DRit, Tutor: Mull.
Pact, CRit, CtW, Bargain: Keep.

T1: Pass.
T2: Draw DRit. Pass.
T3: Draw LED. Pass.
T4: Draw Tutor. Pass.
T5: Draw Petal. Petal, sac (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Pact (3, BBB) -> Trow. Trow (4, BB). CtW (Trow) (5, BBBBB). LED (6, BBBBB). Bargain, response CRit, response sac LED (8, BBB). CRit resolves with thresh (8, BBBBBBBB). Bargain resolves:
Draw: Mox, DRit, Slithermuse, Tendrils.
DRit (9, BBBBBBBBBB). Tendrils for 20.


28. (T3) 2xPact, CtW, Contract, Bargain, Slithermuse, PiF: Mull.
LG, DRit, Trow, Cantor, Tutor, Contract: Keep.

T1: LG (1) -> Bayou (1, B). DRit (2, BBB). Contract (3).
Draw: CtW, CRit, 2xBelcher.
Pass.
T2: Draw LED. Tap Bayou (B). Trow. Pass.
T3: Draw LG. LG -> Arbor. Tap Bayou (B). CtW (Trow) (BBBB). Belcher. LED, sac, activate Belcher with 0 land left.


29. (T1) ESG, Pact, 2xDRit, LED, 2xBargain: Keep.

T1: ESG (G). LED (1, G). Pact (2, G) -> Cantor (3). Sac Cantor (3, B). 2xDRit (5, BBBBB). Bargain, sac LED in response (6, BBBBB).
Draw: Mox, Bargain, 2xTutor.
Bargain (7, BB).
Draw: 2xMox, CRit, CtW.
CRit (8, BBBBB). Mox (CtW) (9, BBBBBB). Mox (Tutor) (10, BBBBBBB). Mox (nothing) (11, BBBBBBB). Tutor (12, BBBBB) -> Tendrils. Tendrils for 26.


30. (Lose) Arbor, Pact, ESG, Cantor, DRit, CRit, Bargain: Keep.

T1: ESG (G). Pact (1, G) -> ESG (1, GG). Cantor, sac (2, GB). CRit (3, BBB). DRit (4, BBBBB). Bargain (5, BB).
Draw: LG, Tutor, Bargain, Tendrils.
Fizzle, die to Pact. (Note: Can't get to BBB to cast Bargain. Can't LG -> Bayou because Arbor is in hand.)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For anybody who claims they have a 60%+ T1 win rate, could you comment on any of the following:
1. What is your data for this claim? Are you keeping track of your goldfishes carefully, or is this just from memory? If you are keeping track (in a spreadsheet, or notepad, etc.), can you share your data?
2. What percentage of the time do you mulligan?
3. When would you keep/mulligan a starting hand which could play a D4 with no mana floating (or left in hand), assuming you are trying to maximize the probability of a T1 win?

Ok finally got around to doing an analysis of these games in regard to the turn 1 percentages as well as pass the turn plays, grinding hands, on the draw vs. on the play, alternative lines of play, etc. Enjoy.

G1: Turn 1 kill, no problems here.

(turn 1 kill)

G2: Your 6 cards, which you mulliganed is very keepable. It has a Drit, and a creature, 2 lands and a Chrome Mox. So at least in game 1, this hand will probably be able to grind one out against control. Also, you have 2 creatures to start putting pressure on them early. Sometimes by turn 2 you are swing for 2 a turn while you wait on a lot of perpetual resources. Two starting mana sources and then Wild Cantor means you'll be able to go for a D4 which can play around Daze and/or Spell Pierce while a failed attempt still leaves you with more than enough resources to go for a 2nd attempt. On the draw, this hand can still win on the first turn depending on what you draw. When you mulligan, remember that if you just need one cards, in this case business, thats about 1-19/20 cards so with 54 cards left in the deck. You'll draw one every 2.7 cards. You have pretty high chances if you draw a D4. Otherwise, Belcher pass is acceptable especially with so many perpetuals. Even if you don't win turn 1, I'd say this is a really strong hand.

(excellent grind hand, no access to turn 1 kill)

G3: Your 7 card hand has Belcher pass with 2 perpetuals. This was likely a turn 2 win. Your 6 card hand could go off turn 1 but I agree its a bit risky. Still mulligan down to 4 cards and win turn 3 is pretty good. Granted, I'd keep the 7 card hand but this hand (4 cards) would get there against decks without disruption and you don't put your life total at risk for Burn with D4s. Also, since you're on the play, you're opponent only gets to turn 2.

(turn 2 kill, mull to 6 risky but might have produced turn 1 kill)

G4: Turn 1 kill, mull to 6. I'd keep the 7 against control though in game 1 as you can on turn 2 IT into a 2nd Chrome Mox and then lay down Mox(Trow) and Mox (IT), meaning you have 3 perpetuals to grind with. Pretty solid for the grind plan. If you can scout and put the opponent on control, this is hand is very keepable. If you're chasing the turn 1 kill, however, a mulligan is definitely the right choice.

(turn 1 kill mull to 6 but a keepable grind hand in the 7)

G5: Its subtle but ceterus paribus you could have gone for Belcher with this hand. Instead of LG--> Bayou, Dark Ritual (BBB), CB, you could have played:
LG-->Bayou, Petal, ESG, (BBG) IT--> Dark Ritual (B), Dark Ritual (BBB), Dark Ritual (BBBBB), Cruel Bargain --> Draw 4 (BB). You have 6 cards in the grave.
Petal (BBB) (threshold), Crit, BBBBBB, Chrome Mox (no imprint), Belcher (BB), IT--> LED.
You only hit one land so its probably good enough. When you can get to 6 cards in the grave knowing that you have Crit in hand thats the better play considering you know you are going all in (since you are chasing the turn 1's). The safer play is obviously the line of play you choose though because against control, you lose only 2 cards to their 2 cards (trading Drit/CB for FoW/blue card).

(potentially turn 1 kill)

G6: You got unlucky draws with this hand; drawing 3 Culling the Weaks without seeing another Land Grant or Pact kinda sucks. Honestly with only 3 cards to function on I might have waited a turn to try to get another IMS that way you could use Land Grant to find Dryad Arbor for Culling the Weak instead. So on the draw perhaps this would still be turn 1. Then again, a mulligan might have produced a better hand.

(loss, mulligan decisions, or pass the turn/on the draw)

G7: Turn 1 Kill with Belcher.

(turn 1 kill)

G8: The initial 7 wasn't bad for a grind plan. If I scouted my opponent on control I might keep it. You have Bayou and Chrome Mox for grinding, and then even Land Grant for the Dryad Arbor. Having 3 perpetuals means a topdecked Belcher while you are grinding can be game. You can easily play around Spell Pierce with this hand, even 2 Spell Pierce or Spell Pierce/Daze given LED. You're just waiting on business. The 6 was good though for chasing the turn 1. I'd mull the 7 against aggro.

(turn 1 kill in the 6, grind plan hand in the 7)

G9: The 7 has a turn 1 Belcher, turn 2 activate, with a whopping 3 perpetual resources for a grind plan. Pretty solid keep if you aren't chasing the turn 1. Also, Belcher pass is quite a bit of inevitability. Its not turn 1 but its not like most decks can answer Belcher turn 1 if it resolves when you're on the play. So its not turn 1 and we don't consider this a turn 1 kill but turn 1 inevitability is kinda like Reanimators 'turn 1 kill' by playing something like Iona turn 1; turn 1 inevitiability is usually just as strong as a turn 1 kill.

Your 6 had a turn 1 kill, potentially though we don't know what you'd have drawn. You actually had access to Culling the Weak that turn. You played Petal, ESG, (BG), Cabal Ritual (BBB), Contract, then you could have ESG (G), Pact --> Cantor --> (B), Pact --> Arbor, Culling the Weak, D4. With G floating perhaps it could have gotten there.

(potential turn 1 in the 6, excellent 7 Belcher pass and 3 perps for grind plan)

G10: This hand is probably a keeper and you have a Bayou if your first attempt gets Forced. Then again we have to take mulligans into account. Hands with more mana than business tend to produce longer spell chains in which you don't have to stop and wait a turn to keep going. So there's that to keep in mind. Sometimes when I'm goldfishing and something like this happens, after the game I draw a hypothetical mulligan(s) to see if I had a better option.

(turn 2, potential mulligan)

G11: Turn 1 kill

(turn 1 kill)

G12: The 7 is much like G10, where you only can invest 4 cards to go off and then are sitting on too many business spells. This hand might have been a turn 1 but its harder to keep with Slithermuse and PiF has your other business spells. I'd mulligan it. The 6er has turn 1 Trow turn 2 Belcher, turn 3 kill. Given that you are only giving your opponent one turn before you drop Belcher this could potentially be keepable if you're playing against a deck that lacks disruption. Still, its a mulligan. The 5 is keepable. Turn 2 isn't that bad. This would be a turn 1 on the draw.

(turn 1 on the draw, turn 2 on the play)

G13: 7 isn't a keeper. The 6 just needs one more mana to D4 with x2 LED floating. Not bad. Perhaps a turn 2. If you had Eternal Witness in the deck, though, this hand could play x2 LED, ESG, Pact--> Witness ,break LEDs for GGGBBB, so you'd be able to D4 with G floating. Meh not the best but if you are chasing that turn 1 maybe.. The 5 is very keepable though. Turn 2 is pretty solid.

(turn 2 w/ Belcher)

G14: Both the 6 and 7 aren't much better than the other here. You don't have a perpetual IMS and you are forced to D4 without anything floating. You definitely get hands like this sometimes. I'd probably keep the 6, not the 7.

(loss)

G15: Slithermuse doesn't always get there. Slithermuse is the best play here. You don't have enough rituals for PiF and there isn't a LED for IGG. Sometimes it just doesn't get there that turn but Slithermuse drawing 7 cards is usually a turn 2 if not a turn 1, especially since you are that many cards closer to threshold.

(Slithermuse busts, turn 2 kill)

G16: Sometimes gambling pays off. With 2 lands left you can still get the turn 1. It definitely better than winning T5.

(Belcher turn 1 in the 7, w/ 2 lands left)

G17: The 5 is keepable. Likely Bayou, Drit, D4 gets Forced, but you can play around Daze. Then you have Pact/Culling for the next business spell. Not terrible. I'd keep this one before going to 4. You have the perp and multiple methods to accelerate so its not technically grindable but its better against control than just having access to one string.

(keepable 5 against control, no turn 1 kill)

G18: Your 7 actually isn't that bad if you aren't chasing the turn 1. You have Bayou, go, and then 2 Culling the Weaks. If you draw a business spell this hand might even be able to natural Tendrils. ie. LG-->Bayou then Pact--> Cantor, Petal--> Cantor(4), Culling(5), Pact --> Trow(7), Culling (8), D4 (FoW'd) (9,10), then Tendrils from the hand for 11. You could also play the Bayou on turn 1 and still have enough. This is, of course if the opponent is countering your business, not acceleration or IMS. So potentially turn 2 but who knows. Mull to 4, turn 4 win is alright. The fact that you used a D4 means its probably a loss.

(loss, opening 7 is keepable but with an ambiguous clock)

G19: Turn 1 kill

(turn 1 kill)

G20: I'd keep the 6. You have a perpetual and you can get to 5 mana for a business spell at which anyone of them would work and you could play around Tempo countermagic like Spell Pierce and Daze with LED, or just have mana floating. Sometimes you just have to keep hands like this and play it safe. Against aggro, you only need one business spell off the topdeck to win. Against control, you have at least 2 attempts based on your opening hand and can play around their lighter countermagic. Unless they have 2 FoW, you'll probably have this one.

(keepable 6, ambiguous clock)

G21: You have the turn 2 here. You drew good stuff off the D4 but it would be a pass the turn play as you are short B of playing Culling the Weak into your D4. However, once you D4 again, you draw a Tutor and you still have a 2nd LED so I think you could have had that one unless I'm reading it wrong.

(turn 2 kill)

G22: I'd keep the first hand against control. Good grinder, though you only have one perpetual. x2 Drit means you'll have 2 solid attempts and with Cantor Arbor you can put some pressure on until you draw a Culling the Weak. Also, the Cantor functions as a Psuedo-Petal so you'll have Bayou, Cantor as starting mana sources in addition to 2 IMS and ESG. So perhaps 2 D4's with the Drits could lead into a Belcher via the other mana sources. The 6er is also keepable against control as you have to perpetuals for grinding that will both produce black. That means one more Chrome Mox will give you a solid grind plan, or a ritual or topdecked, etc. Belcher is also there which means your perps are that much more useful. I'd probably keep this hand instead of going to 5. You only need an IMS or ritual to start and that means you need only draw either one of 3 Chrome Mox, 4 Lotus Petal, 4 Dark Ritual, 4 Summoner's Pact, 4 LG, or 4 Cabal Ritual, which is a solid 22 cards that will let you go off.

(ambigious clock, not turn 1, only grinder options)

G23: It seems you left out a card from the 5 card hand. If its a black card I'd keep it because then you have something other than Drit to imprint on Mox. You have Drit, a perp, LED, and Pact. Not that bad. Its better than mulling to 4.

(ambigious, not turn 1 kill)

G24: Dam solid 5 card mulligan. T3 with that kind of mulligan isn't unreasonable. Might get there against some decks. Given that you are on the play that might get there against some decks; only a handful of decks can deal 10 damage by turn 2. Still, the initial 7 only needs one more mana or one more card in the grave for threshold (thresh via Pact-->cantor, petal, pact-->arbor, culling, and then one more card before Crit to get the Belcher kill w/ one land left) so I'd probably keep that, especially on the draw. The 6er is risky, probably a mulligan or pass the turn at least. You want to have a mana floating after a D4.

(T3 Belcher kill mull to 5, T2 Belcher with the initial 7)

G25: You have IT/LED + 3 mana for Slithermuse line of play here. If you run a 2nd Tendrils (cause you have to imprint it on Mox). Also, it could be a pass the turn Belcher kill here as well, and you have a solid 2 perpetuals as well as LED to play around spell Pierce. Solid keeper though.

(T1 Slithermuse into kill, or T2 pass the turn Belcher)

G26: T1 kill but your 7 was keepable if the matchup lets you pass the turn.

(T1 kill)

G27: Initial 7 has some good stuff. Any other business spell would have helped you there. 4 Chrome Mox, 4 LED, 8 D4, 4 Belcher, 1 IGG (if you play it) all would have helped there. Thats a solid 21 cards that could have gotten there with that hand. I'd say those are good odds. Btw these are the kind of calculations you need to make for pass the turn plays. If its high enough, the hand is keepable. The 5er has a similiar problem. You could draw 4 LED or 8 D4 to win that hand so the odds are far less in your favor 21/53 (39% chance for turn 2) vs. 12/54 (22% chance for turn 2).

(possible turn 2, ambigious)

G28: The 7 is a mull, 6 is a keeper. The deck didn't bail you out this time. It can happen. Turn 3 can get there against like Enchantress or Maverick that didn't draw Thalia or Teeg (only 3 cards unless they got the GSZ turn one into GSZ--Teeg turn 2, or Hierach, GSZ-->Teeg). The D4 didn't yield the best cards here though.

(Turn 3 Belcher kill)

G29: Turn 1, solid kill.

(turn 1 kill)

G30: Would have played this differently. Arbor, ESG--> Cantor --> Drit, Bargain, that way you aren't going all in with Pact. Then next turn, LG--> Bayou, Crit, Bargain. Granted, you could play Crit here along with Dark Ritual but it looks like a pass the turn hand anyway. If you play the Crit, unless you topdeck 4 Culling the Weak, 4 LED, 3 Dark Ritual, or 3 Crit, you can't go off again. So thats 14/48, or (29%).

(possible turn 1 on the draw, possible turn 2 kill, but ambigious)


So yeah thats an analysis. Ultimately, if played perfectly:
Kills:
T1: 12 (2 on the draw, 1 risky) (12 or 15)
T2: 9
T3: 2
Grind: 6
Loss: 3
Ambiguous: 5

Analysis and Tips
I don't usually count anything thats beyond T3 on the play. By then they can do something relevant via D4s. Granted, if they are drawing shitty you might be able to pull one out of your ass in those cases though. Those are the ambigious. It all depends on the topdeck. When I do hand analysis like this though from my own testing, I tend to look at the top few cards and list them to make things less ambigious. Do this in the future that way we can sort those games out. Losses is certainly high 3/30, 10%, is much too high but I hold that accountable to the fact that you were chasing the turn 1. Sometimes its best to play it safe. This deck has a SAVAGE topdeck mode. Usually you are waiting on a card to go off thats 20 (+/- by a few). If I've scouted and feel safe in a matchup, I might trust to the topdeck. In terms of grind hands, 6 is pretty good/standard. I love it when I draw those game 1 against control. Its a lot more confident hand 'lol FoW?'. T2 kills will usually get there, especially when you are sitting on perps for pass the turn plays where they can't get anything out of your hand. Other times you've amassed so much resources with your D4s that discard and countermagic can be played around. T3 is pushing it. By then the opponent has a bear in the ideal situation. If I know a hand is a turn 3 kill, I better have Belcher in play at the least. QPM doesn't come online until they have 3 mana.

In regards to the turn 1 kill ratio. This one is about 40% which is still higher than Belcher (at a mere 36%) turn 1 kills, and this is with a pretty small samples size. I'd recommend a minimum of 50 games. Emidln has done quite a bit of testing with this deck in the past a long with a whole other crew of people, large playtesting samples, and put LGSI at 60% turn 1 kills provided you've basically mastered the deck can played 1000's of hands. I've been playing it for about 8 years with variations, PSI for the last 5 or 6, so I can look at a hand for no more than a few seconds and tell if its playable. You have to do calculations though, ie. how many cards are left in the deck versus what cards will give you option lines of play, obvious lines of play, risky lines of play, alternative lines of play, double choice or choice of IT targets, Pact before/after, LED w/ D4 or save for a drawn IT for cards that you can't cast, etc. Often I do a simple calculations like I did above ie. [X cards you want / X cards left in the deck]. This is important for topdecking and planning ahead for future D4s. Usually something like 15/48 is solid, 19-21/53, etc. You basically want a 1/3 ratio which is usually "I want business" or "I want mana or acceleration". However, "I want IMS" isn't keepable usually. I rarely keep these hands unless its REALLY savage because the IMS are the fewest (4 LG, 4 Summoner's Pact, 4 ESG, 4 Petal, 4 Mox). ESG and Pact are not reliable black sources, though ocassionally the will be via Wild Cantor its anywhere from 20/53 to 12/53. Keep that in mind if you are waiting on a black source, its more likely that it won't happen. If you just need one mana, though, I would wait.


Also, just wanted to say that you might be a good or even an excellent combo player but this is probably the hardest deck to play next to Doomsday, and is even harder than Doomsday in its own way. You can set up DD piles and such and DD is extremely versatile but that comes from a lot of experience. Recently, Emidln picked up the deck again out of boredom, who I can consider to be one of the legendary storm combo players up there with Bryant Cook. He plays with x2 Wild Cantor in the maindeck and wins a lot of his games with PiF, and said that he basically can't lose with the deck, or hadn't lost. I personally am a musician so I spend most of my time immersed in sound. If I had more free time and attended more large tournaments I'd imagine this deck might have more of a reputation. Kusumoto's 26th place at a large event recently with his own list makes me think that this deck could be more competitive than people give it credit for. Granted, one good placing doesn't mean much but its a large event and almost nobody takes this deck to large tournaments. I have a handful of top 8's at like 50+ events but I haven't been to a GP or SCG yet. I'll probably get around to it this year though since SCG is having so many.

Also, please use this as a resource when studying your hands along with the 10 game sample analysis in the OP. It took me a solid 3 hours (9 pages in Microsoft Word) to write this so it would get a bit repetitive to do again. :P

I'm willing to do some videos though, especially for the post-board plan. Thats something that can be a little bit more ambiguous since you have so many more options.

EDIT:
Also, my current list is:


- Pact Spanish Inquisition -
Business:
4 Cruel Bargain
4 Infernal Contract
4 Infernal Tutor
4 Goblin Charbelcher
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Ill-Gotten Gains
1 Past in Flames
1 Slithermuse

Acceleration:
1 Odious Trow
1 Wild Cantor
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Culling the Weak
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
4 Chrome Mox
4 Land Grant

1 Bayou
1 Dryad Arbor

SB:
4 Carpet of Flowers
4 Duress
2 Autumn's Veil
3 Empty the Warrens
1 Taiga
1 Bayou

The recent changes were:
-1 Young Wolf
+1 IGG

Its been great so far. The other day played Maverick 3 rounds, all turn 1 kills. Played UW Stoneblade 2-1; the grind plan is savage.

In the board I'm not sure if Mirri's Guile or the 3rd EtW is the better call. I might even drop the Bayou that way I have a solid 4 EtW to board in against decks that play bears or any kind of hate really. They are also a solid plan against Tempo decks. However, slow control decks have answers:
Planeswalker control has WOG
UW Countertop has Terminus or EE
BUG Control has Deed
Stoneblade can answer it with Batterskull sometimes but not often, and especially if it comes down early like turns 1-3.
Against Tempo, though, they have basically no way to answer it. So RUG and UR Delver, and some random UW Delver decks won't really have anything to do but **** their pants.

Mirri's Guile is like a 5th Carpet of Flowers in the slower control matchups. Its been unimpressive against Tempo. The Bayou has also helped with the grind plan immensely so I'm hesitant to drop it.

[Summerrain]

Hi there again,

Vacrix, great job on commenting those 30 matches. It was a joy to read.

I want to leave some questions and comments on your reply here.

@ Summerrain
I forgot to mention, PSI looks good in your metagame. You matchups were
R1: Maverick 80/20
R2: Maverick 80/20
R3: UW Counterbalance 50/50 (varies up +/- 10 based on their build)
R4: RUG Tempo 60/40
R5: RUG Tempo 60/40
R6: Maverick 80/20

I never felt the RUG Tempo MU to be THAT good. Game 1 often feels quite like a gamble who's on the play or if he has the force or not. My postboard games were very close most of the time. (When I say close, I mean close on LP and close on Spells)

Concerning Maverick - I guess you are right on the postboard EtW. It just never came to my mind. I'm testing it atm and feel a lot more comfortable. I'm not comfortable with the cards you'd board out for them though.

-1 Slithermuse
-1 Young Wolf
-1 Wild Cantor
+1 Taiga
+2 Empty the Warrens

I'd pick at least one pact, since EtW doesn't end the game ASAP and I probably can't pay the upkeep trigger. The Taiga makes perfect sense. Why did you chose the Cantor and the Wolf? I don't have the Wolf in my build but an equivalent would be the Trow. You recently did a switch for IGG, what would your boarding be now against Maverick?

My inexperience with combo-decks is a big problem here, I guess. One just sees other decks differently when one's used to playing control decks one tournaments.
Plus, I sometimes find it hard to train with S.I., my friends don't want to play against it and I understand why. It's like going to the cinema, knowing you'll see one heck of a boring film.
However I'll do my best to test this deck against Maverick/RUG/StoneBlade this week, before I go to a small tournament on saturday. I'll try to share my experiences on sunday or monday.


One last thing about the mentioned anti-bear cards like Death Mark, Slaughter Pact, Dread of Night... I really don't like them. They took to much space in my SB and hand when I tested them and I actually never needed them anyway. The problematic cards imho are Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Gaddock Teeg and Ethersworn Canonist and those cards won't enter turn 1. So you got at least your first turn on the draw to kill a Maverick player, which I find rather easy when there's no other hate.. Stone Blade or CounterTop use to have Thalia, Guardian of Thraben and/or Ethersworn Canonist but in those games your PB perp. mana-sources do the trick and let you play around them.

[andy]

Thanks for taking the time to go through those sample hands, Vacrix. I want to point out, especially to new players trying this deck out, that my sample hands shouldn't be taken as an attempt to play the deck correctly for tournament purposes. I'm trying to maximize the T1 goldfish rate. I definitely mulliganed hands that I would normally have kept (e.g., in game 2), or played hands more aggressively when I would have passed the turn in a real game situation.

As for the sample hand comments:

G5: Good catch. I think Mox imprinting Tutor to get the extra mana for Belcher is better than Tutor for LED (since it leaves you with another permanent source).

G9: I didn't have access to Culling that game, because I had only one Pact.

G16: Activating Belcher with 2 lands left fizzles well over 60% of the time. (It depends on the exact number of cards left, but it's roughly 62% - 70%.) I would do that if I had to (e.g., only option after a D4 or two). But I think the mulligan from 7 gives a better T1 percentage.

G25: I saw the Muse line of play. The choice was between D4 floating 1 (from the Petal on the table) vs. D7 floating nothing. Since I had already played a land, Arbors, LGs, Pacts, CtW, etc. couldn't be relied upon to get black mana after the D7. I'm not really positive, but I think playing the D4 with mana floating was a higher percentage play here. (However, in a real match situation, I think the Muse decision is better, since it leaves you with more resources--cards and life--to continue with if you do fizzle on T1.)

G30: I agree about not needing to go all in with Pact here. I felt that using the Pact before the D4 here allowed me to convert 2xESG to black mana (1 via Cantor, 1 via Cabal Ritual), and having BB available after the D4 was probably going to be more useful than BG (if I had floated only B and kept the Pact until after the D4). Also, even if I saved the Pact until after the D4, there was no way to continue for a T1 kill here.

In the end, it seems there was only one potential T1 kill that I missed (in game 5, a Belcher activation with 1 land remaining in the deck). The T1 kill in game 9 was impossible, because I had only one Pact, not two. You mention T1 on the draw kills in games 12 and 30, but this is an incorrect way to run an experiment (or analyze data from an experiment). The choice of being on the play or on the draw comes before you see your hand, not after. To analyze the difference in play vs. draw T1 goldfish rate, the correct experiment is to do a set of hands on the play and a separate set of hands on the draw.

When I do hand analysis like this though from my own testing, I tend to look at the top few cards and list them to make things less ambigious. Do this in the future that way we can sort those games out.

I'm not sure what you're referring to here. I listed every single card I saw in these games.

In regards to the turn 1 kill ratio. This one is about 40% which is still higher than Belcher (at a mere 36%) turn 1 kills[...]Emidln has done quite a bit of testing with this deck in the past a long with a whole other crew of people, large playtesting samples, and put LGSI at 60% turn 1 kills provided you've basically mastered the deck can played 1000's of hands.

Claims like this of 60% T1 kill rates are precisely the claims I'm trying to test. When you or Emidln or anybody else playing this deck claims to have an X% T1 win rate, are you really keeping track of every single game and tallying your results? Are you making the claim from your memory of your games? Is the data coming from a mix of tournament games and goldfishes? A mix of on-the-play and on-the-draw?

this is with a pretty small samples size. I'd recommend a minimum of 50 games.

I think a sample size of 30 is statistically significant for binomial random trials. I'll do batches of 50 if I have time, but I don't often have much time for Magic.

On a slightly separate note, for the purposes of maximizing the T1 goldfish rate, game play should be pretty much algorithmic. We should be able to determine a few rules (maybe lots of rules) that dictate the play. Some of these rules are obvious, although some I'm not sure of yet:

1. If your opening hand does not allow you to:
   
   1. Play and activate Belcher
   2. Play a D4/D7
   3. Tutor with sufficient mana floating to follow up with Belcher/D4/D7/Tendrils
   
   then you should mulligan.
   
2. If your opening hand allows you to cast a D4 floating at least B, then you should keep.
   
3. If your opening hand allows you to cast a Tutor floating at least BBB, then you should keep.
   
4. If your opening hand allows you cast a D7 floating nothing, then you should keep. (?)
   
5. If your opening hand allows you to cast a D4 floating nothing, then you should keep. (?)
   
6. If you have the ability to cast a D4 floating something or a D7 floating nothing, then you should cast the D4 if you've already played a land, or the D7 if you haven't yet played a land. (?)

I'm most curious about the last two. I'm pretty sure that (5) is correct, but I feel that casting D4s with nothing floating is when I feel least comfortable with the deck (in terms of going for T1 wins). It frequently leads to fizzles. Perhaps (5), like (6), should be dependent on whether or not a land has already been played; having already played a land removes a lot of initial black sources that you would otherwise hope to draw into.

Rule (6) should really be split into a few rules depending on how much mana you would be floating with your D4. Floating G after a D4 would not be enough to choose that over a D7. Floating BBB would probably be enough, though. I still haven't settled on this one.

[Silent Requiem]

Vacrix, I've noticed that your list emphasizes Charbelcher over Tendrils. Why is this?

From a newcomer's perspective, Tendrils can imprint on Chrome Mox for black mana, and is easier to cast if you cantrip into it. You also don't need to worry about fizzling if you have not removed both the lands from your deck.

The only advantage Belcher seems to have is that it is superior in opening hands with loads of gas but no other business (insufficient storm for a Tendrils win).