The Long Term future of this format...

[joemauer]

So you think if Legacy were to collapse tomorrow Dual Lands would retain the majority of their value?

I think that's absurd. The only reason they are valued at the price points they're at right now is because players are more than willing to comply with them. If this player-driven demand did not exist they simply would cease to shift stock at their current value. Do you honestly believe that collectors would continue to buy sufficient stock of the Duals if Legacy didn't exist? Do you think Star City, and every other retailer, would keep the Duals at those high price points if no one was buying them? That makes no sense. Comparing them to Moxen and the Black Lotus is flat out a faulty analogy. They don't have the same collectability, cachet, iconic status, or rarity - and they never will. They are worth what they are worth because they are played so heavily in Legacy and the day that Legacy players lose the will or means to buy them at these prices the prices will absolutely fall. Playability is directly tied to value in Legacy. Like I said, Survival's increase in value was directly proportional to its increase in metagame playability. The very instant it suddenly lost its playability its value decreased proportionally - the prices collapsed. It did not become less rare, collectors affecting supply had no impact whatsoever on its value. If suddenly other Legacy cards became less playable (and that doesn't necessarily have to involve a ban. It could be that the meta shifts, it could be that the playerbase contracts and demand wanes, etc.), and not when they become more or less abundant due to collectors, they become less valuable. Wizards could flat-out ban Black Lotus from Vintage and it would not affect its value in the same way, its value is not so directly tied to how widely played it is. A Black Lotus is seen as a collector's item, almost as if it's somehow historically important as an object. A Revised Tropical Island isn't - it's seen as a means to an end, a tool to make your deck stronger.

The same goes for every other Legacy staple. If tomorrow, *poof*, Legacy disappeared do you honestly believe any of the other several dozen Legacy staples would retain their value? Do you honestly believe Force of Will and Wasteland would continue to command such high prices? The notion that collectors would be sitting there on these dragons' hoards of Wastelands and FoW's, throwing them up in the air and continuing to buy more and more from retailers at those "pre-collapse" prices is ludicrous. Collectors can't sustain Legacy (nor do they currently), it is players that have by far the greatest impact on the value of this format's staples. People have been predicting the imminent demise of Legacy for many years now precisely because they treat the rising asking price of these cards as some bizarre phenomenon outside of their control... the exact opposite is true. This format not only continues it thrives. People ramble on and on about Legacy and Vintage being two sides of the same falling coin as if it's such an established fact that it's beyond even being a point of contention - that's ridiculous. Legacy is not Vintage, if it were it would have already been effectively dead for years now. It's so popular because it is so widely played and its staples are so valuable because they're so widely sought and bought.

The high prices you see of this format's staples is not a symptom of the same disease that killed Vintage, it's a by-product of its current immense popularity coupled with its playerbase's willingness to pay what's currently asked. We players tend to blame "collectors" or "retailers" for the price bubble because we lack the self-awareness to blame ourselves. It has nothing to do with scarcity or collectors causing there to be far more demand than there is supply - Dual Lands are not hard to find, they are ubiquitous. Would I prefer that they were cheaper? Sure. They day players decide they are no longer willing to cooperate with this pricing structure the prices will fall.

Actually, Legacy could slowly die off some or lose popularity well before the prices of Dual Lands(and some other key staples such as FoW) drop in prices. Some one better at economics should know the name of the term for this mentality. Like with the current housing mess. now is the time to buy a house but because people are scared no one will. Five years ago people thought it was the time to buy houses and flip them, but it wasn't.

Point is, prices don't always reflect the popularity of a format. People that speculate affect the prices of cards moreso than players. The speculators aren't very likely to sell their cards if they are dropping in price at all.

Not saying Legacy is dying right now, but I am saying that when it dies the prices will hardly be affected unless Magic as whole loses popularity.

[Smmenen]

- Dual Lands are not hard to find, they are ubiquitous.

Do you realize that people say the exact same thing in Vintage about power? ELD on themanadrain.com used to say that moxen are easy to find. And they are. They are just expensive.

I have probably more insight into Wizards thinking than most, so let me tell you what I think is going on.

First, Wizards realizes that Legacy is very popular. But the Reserved List limits the support they can give to it. They can't make it a PTQ format. They can only give it so many GPs per year.

Obviously, they hope that Modern can become what Legacy currently is. The foundation of Modern -- the Ravnica dual lands -- are not on the reserved list, so they can be repeatedly reprinted as needed.

I don't think Wizards will ever abandon Legacy, at least in terms of giving it a GP or two a year, as long as it is relatively popular. But you can certainly expect Wizards, in the long run, to vigorously promote Modern as their eternal format of choice.

Finally, and here's the key, a big part of Legacy's popularity is the SCG series. If SCG were to abandon Legacy, I would expect it's popularity to decline by a substantial margin from where it is today. I don't think it would kill Legacy, but it would be naive to think that it wouldn't hurt Legacy.

There is a direct correlation between Legacy's popularity and the rise of SCG support. SCG giving support to Vintage was a huge reason behind it's popularity from 2003-2005, and was a big reason it has not been as popular since.

The reality is simple, and I've said it before, the Reserved List is a fundamental limit on the broadest playability of Legacy.

Oh, and this: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/m...rved_List.html

Legacy is not going to die, in the sense that no one will play it or the DCI will stop managing the format. But it could see a gradual, but substantial, decline in popularity, if SCG stops supporting it.

[dontbiteitholmes]

Reason number 3: Elitism

Comments like these will drive away new players.
[/I][/B]

Give me a break please.

Some guy comes in here to tell us 10 posts worth of how much he hates Legacy. Why?

This forum exists because of Legacy and the only real reason to be here is if you have some interest in the format.

If you start out a point with "I'm really hoping for Legacy to die off sooner than later" then what are you doing here?

Okay, I could sit here and try to use logic and reason to show why saying "I hate Force of Will and the format is too expensive" isn't a good argument. I could point to the amount of money a top tier Standard deck costs multiplied by the number of times you have to rebuy into Standard a year vs. what those cards are worth post-rotation and compare the return on investment vs. buying Legacy staples and looking long term. Or I could save us all some time and just point out "Are you being serious right now dude?" I assume if I went on a BMW forum and said, "I hope BWM goes out of business because I hate the defining features of the brand and when a new model comes out I want to buy it but they are too expensive" I wouldn't get a lot of traction.

If you want to talk about driving people away from the format let's talk about...

Reason number 1: Accessibility. [/B]

http://sales.starcitygames.com/cardd...?product=13046

http://sales.starcitygames.com/cardd...?product=13119

The price of 4 duals: $400-$600, with NO REPRINTS to drive the price down.

When people are talking about prices of legacy cards, why do they always link straight to SCG or TCG player or some store? Do you guys actually pay fucking retail on collectibles?

SCG or TCG player is the absolute ceiling of what you should ever pay for a Legacy card. Like if you need and Underground Sea and don't have time to shop around you shouldn't pay more that $150 under any circumstances. If you are trying to make a case for Legacy and not "drive away newer players" let's talk about the price of Underground Seas...

http://www.ebay.com/sch/Magic-the-Ga...%20sea&_sop=13

Oh wait? I thought that was a $150 card, but now it looks like I can buy one pretty easily for around $100. Oh but wait $150 must be near mint...

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw...d&_sacat=19107

From what I see about 90% of NM Seas on that page went for under $120...

So if I was pricing U Seas to play the game I would say between $90 - $120 a piece or between $360 - 480 for a playset or roughly $120-$240 less than you just quoted. Also looking at Ebay I just priced Savannahs more realistically at around $65, so if you were about to click that buy button on SCG congratulations I just saved you $140.

Did anyone here buy all their duals @ SCG prices? I've pointed this out before and I get tired of pointing it out over and over again. People do come here to research buying into Legacy. When every other thread references Savannahs @ $100 and various bullshit like that how many players do you think that is scaring off?

I got so pissed when Feline starting posting "top Legacy decks & their prices" with TCG high-low prices next to every card. Even the low prices were over Ebay averages. Get a grip, the most expensive dual land can still be had for under $100. Why does every post about price on the Source overvalue cards by approx. +50% if you are trying to get people into the format?

Fact is, go figure a guy calling himself alderon666 was acting like a petulant child. "I can't afford the cards, so I hope the format dies so no one else can play it either." Give me a fucking break. For whatever reason the "If I can't have it nobody can" attitude pisses me off to no end and I actually had to restrain myself from just posting a blatant insult as a reply. People have been throwing the word "elitist" around since this forum was a baby and Legacy is more popular than ever (despite this being the only legit Legacy forum online, at least in English). Forgive me for not wanting to post a long reply to some idiot but to point to that post as a reason the format will eventually fade, and you get the full service. Also the attitudes of the people on this forum aren't exclusive to Legacy or even Magic. The replys run the gambit from helpful to dismissive or even insulting but that's not really different from any other forum or reddit.

[lordofthepit]

- And your disingenuous point doesn't earn a serious response from me.

That was a serious question, but I should have realized what other people on this forum called you out on several months ago: you're a troll. Specifically, you claim an unsubstantiated position and then ask others to prove you wrong ("Temporal Mastery is broken and you need to provide me a decklist to prove that it's not"). The obvious logical flaw in your reasoning should have made it patently obvious to me long ago.

I find it richly ironic that you called my point "disingenuous". After all, those same people who called you out on trolling pointed out you would use these empty argumentative tactics in which you ask misleading, disingenuous questions to get answers, which you would take out of context to try to establish your point.

Successful troll is successful. Well played, Drago. You reeled me in. It won't happen again.

[DragoFireheart]

That was a serious question,

- It wouldn't have been if you fully read my post. Oh, and lol at the cop out by calling me a troll. I guess you missed the fact that I said three reasons, not one, would cause Legacy to die.

Then again, it's easier to just call me a troll and not admit you are blatantly wrong on that point.

[DragoFireheart]

Give me a break please.

Some guy comes in here to tell us 10 posts worth of how much he hates Legacy. Why?

This forum exists because of Legacy and the only real reason to be here is if you have some interest in the format.

- Did you stop to think that maybe he HAD an interest in the format but doesn't like where it is going? Should people only be allowed to talk about how amazing Legacy is? Are we not allowed to talk about what is wrong with Legacy?

When people are talking about prices of legacy cards, why do they always link straight to SCG or TCG player or some store? Do you guys actually pay fucking retail on collectibles?

A. Lots of stores, SCG or not, like to use SCG as a price point for comparisons.

B. I used the same website to post price details about shocklands. Clearly I wasn't trying to skew the data: I was only showing the absurdly different price difference between the two dual land types.

C. You missed the point completely and utterly.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/Magic-the-Ga...%20sea&_sop=13

Oh wait? I thought that was a $150 card, but now it looks like I can buy one pretty easily for around $100. Oh but wait $150 must be near mint...

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw...d&_sacat=19107

From what I see about 90% of NM Seas on that page went for under $120...

oh yippie, you saved $25-50! Meanwhile, that money you saved would have bought me a playset of shocklands for Modern.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sop=...rt=nc&LH_BIN=1

Let's see... do I spend $100 for ONE land to play in a format not nearly as supported by WotC... or do I spend $40 for a playset of lands for a format that has double the support.

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazin...ndprix/welcome

2012

Legacy GP: 3
Modern GP: 6

Fact is, go figure a guy calling himself alderon666 was acting like a petulant child. "I can't afford the cards, so I hope the format dies so no one else can play it either." Give me a fucking break.

- Find me the exact quote please. Otherwise, don't pull bull shit out of your ass.

[Kuma]

-A. Lots of stores, SCG or not, like to use SCG as a price point for comparisons.

It doesn't matter if a million stores use SCG prices as long as dual lands can readily be had for less on Ebay, etc.

[DragoFireheart]

It doesn't matter if a million stores use SCG prices as long as dual lands can readily be had for less on Ebay, etc.

- You're missing the point.

Alright, so you want to say duals are (I'll be generous) $100 at most right now? Here, I'll use a quote from the previous guy:

So if I was pricing U Seas to play the game I would say between $90 - $120 a piece or between $360 - 480 for a playset or roughly $120-$240 less than you just quoted. Also looking at Ebay I just priced Savannahs more realistically at around $65, so if you were about to click that buy button on SCG congratulations I just saved you $140.

Let's use $360.

Same price for shocklands? Probably $40 at most.

Arguing that you can find deals on Ebay doesn't change the fact that Modern is infinitely most accessible. I don't have to spend hundreds of dollars for four cards to get into Modern (as long as I don't want to play Jund atm). For the price you spent to buy four cards, I have assembled an entire deck in Modern. I bet I could get Delver Blade, Tron, or Affinity for under $360 using the same sites he used for that price range. And they are all good decks.

[zendo]

After years of lurking, this is the thread that finally compelled me to register, just to leave my 2 cents.


I believe that the ONLY danger to Legacy, long term, is the reserved list.

Legacy is an exciting format. Everyone I know would play it if they could. There are no amount of elitist jerks that would keep people from playing. They will be wherever there is magic. Support is not an issue. WOTC will support whatever people are playing. Consider Commander.

Accessability is the only barrier. It should be recognized for what it is. Greed. Player greed. The desire to keep your cards on the reserved list so that they maintain, or increase in value. I own a playset of every dual land, and about %90 of all other cards in the format. I would only benfit if the reserved list was done away with, I would have more competition from the influx in players, as well as more support from WOTC. They would be more than happy to support whatever format players are buying into.

If you love legacy, why would you not petition for the removal of the reserved list?

Just out of curiosity, were many players consulted when it was decided to keep the reserved list around?

[Smmenen]

Just out of curiosity, were many players consulted when it was decided to keep the reserved list around?

No, just one.

See my post earlier in this page of the thread, and my article where I discussed my visit: http://www.starcitygames.com/magic/m...rved_List.html

Sorry I failed.

[Mr.C]

Funny, I remember the same kind of discussion when Legacy was created, back when I was playing Vintage. How Vintage would never die, etc. Granted, Vintage isn't dead, its just in a vegetative state. Zombie-like.

Legacy will go the same route, unfortunately.

It won't destroy the value of Duals and stuff completely, because EDH.

However, when Legacy is dropped by SCG... I hope I have sold all my Legacy stuff by then. It's gonna be the reverse of the bitching about prices thread.

[DragoFireheart]

If you love legacy, why would you not petition for the removal of the reserved list?

A. This discussion has already happened.

B. Modern is evidence that WotC has no interest in pursing the removal of the Reserved list.

C. There is too much PR risk for WotC in removing the Reserved list due to collectors. Remember that MTG is a collectable card game and isn't just a card game.

[Lt. Quattro]

A. This discussion has already happened.

B. Modern is evidence that WotC has no interest in pursing the removal of the Reserved list.

C. There is too much PR risk for WotC in removing the Reserved list due to collectors. Remember that MTG is a collectable card game and isn't just a card game.

Just how much negative publicity could the collectors in favor of the reserve list actually create? Wouldn't it then be drowned out immediately by the hype of a paper masters edition and a legacy pro tour?

[Kich867]

A. This discussion has already happened.

B. Modern is evidence that WotC has no interest in pursing the removal of the Reserved list.

C. There is too much PR risk for WotC in removing the Reserved list due to collectors. Remember that MTG is a collectable card game and isn't just a card game.

Didn't we already discuss that the removal of the reserved list wouldn't even budge the prices?

A beta Birds of Paradise goes for upwards of $250. The card has pretty much existed in every format since magic's inception and is easily one of the most printed cards in history outside of the basic Mountain. It can't be that hard of a phenomenon to grasp that things that are rare that people are interested in retain value because they're rare. The intrinsic quality of them actually being rare makes them worth a lot. Furthermore, the expectation that some shit you bought forever ago will never go down in price and holding on to them until the perfect time to sell will always result in disappointment. And if they don't intend to sell them then the price is inconsequential.

Not only that, they aren't even legally bound to the reserved list and "Collectors" is a facade. This vaguely referenced group of people that are somehow holding Wizards to something don't really exist in any sort of sense.

[csy]

Legacy is huge. In many many many of the biggest mtg playing markets across the US, and supported by Scg. Because Scg has so many legacy staples for sale, and the demand to play is so high they won't be cutting it anytime soon. Modern isn't an eternal format. It's a step child of the eternal formats and a solution to extended. If it were eternal they'd allow plane chase And commander cards. With a banned list to protect that.

[dontbiteitholmes]

oh yippie, you saved $25-50! Meanwhile, that money you saved would have bought me a playset of shocklands for Modern.

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_sop=...rt=nc&LH_BIN=1

Actually it's more like $30-60 and when you are talking about 4x for a playset or 40x full a full playset you are easily talking about overvaluing a set of duals by $1000.

Funny, I remember the same kind of discussion when Legacy was created, back when I was playing Vintage. How Vintage would never die, etc. Granted, Vintage isn't dead, its just in a vegetative state. Zombie-like.

Legacy will go the same route, unfortunately.

It won't destroy the value of Duals and stuff completely, because EDH.

However, when Legacy is dropped by SCG... I hope I have sold all my Legacy stuff by then. It's gonna be the reverse of the bitching about prices thread.

A big part of the "death" of Vintage was how poorly maintained the format was. It was really popular back around 2000 then it went through a lot of phases were one strategy dominated. First is was the Academy, then Burning Wish combo, then it was prison, then it was Workshop with 4x 3Sphere, then it was Tog, then it was Gifts and I know I'm missing some of the big ones. Vintage is currently in a state where the format is somewhat diverse and interesting again and that has affected popularity as evidenced by turnout this year at GenCon. When a format goes through a phase where one deck rises above all others (or even when there are only 2-3 truely viable decks) it's going to affect popularity, we've seen this many times even in Standard and it killed Extended. The price of Vintage cards certainly didn't help matters either.

[Pippin]

I'm amazed that people are comparing Vintage to Legacy. You know, a format where P9 is very much needed to compete and where only 22 800 Black Lotuses were ever printed to Legacy where every specific dual land has atleast 300 000 copies out there (with some lost due to time, same as with P9). Not to mention that that not every Legacy deck plays full set of Underground Seas, hell lots of them aren't even playing duals.

In short - yeah, reserve list is a problem, but it certainly isn't the end of the world. Legacy is going from strength to strength and only gained in popularity in last few years with no signs of slowing down. It may take a hit if SCG drops it, but until that actually happens doomsayers can only resort to their wishes .

[Vicar in a tutu]

Didn't we already discuss that the removal of the reserved list wouldn't even budge the prices?

If they reprinted dual lands, I agree that Alpha and Beta (and maybe FBB) would retain most of their value. But whitebordered like Revised and Unlimited might take a hit.

[xfxf]

Didn't we already discuss that the removal of the reserved list wouldn't even budge the prices?

A beta Birds of Paradise goes for upwards of $250. The card has pretty much existed in every format since magic's inception and is easily one of the most printed cards in history outside of the basic Mountain. It can't be that hard of a phenomenon to grasp that things that are rare that people are interested in retain value because they're rare. The intrinsic quality of them actually being rare makes them worth a lot. Furthermore, the expectation that some shit you bought forever ago will never go down in price and holding on to them until the perfect time to sell will always result in disappointment. And if they don't intend to sell them then the price is inconsequential.

Not only that, they aren't even legally bound to the reserved list and "Collectors" is a facade. This vaguely referenced group of people that are somehow holding Wizards to something don't really exist in any sort of sense.

Qft.

[publius_aelius]

Guys, are you kiddin' me?

I can't believe that you are seriously debating about legacy's demise because of Wizards' focus on Modern or due to improbable SCG's decision to stage Modern tournaments instead of legacy?

I couldn't care less. If Richard fuckin' Garfield came here and said "legacy is dead because there are no more legacy GP's", I would laugh at his face. Why? Because I'll still play casually, and have fun, as I normally do.

Really, why should I care if SCG decides not to hold legacy tournaments any more? Will my ability to have fun playing SWAMP-MOX DIAMOND into Hymn to Tourach against my buddies abruptly decay?
Will the possibility to play Raging Ravine tapped on t1 and pass, suddenly seem attractive? Ha-fuckin'-ha.

Btw.
I play each competitive format, including block constructed, standard, modern, sealed, draft, ...but legacy is above them all by far.