Oops, All Spells! (Formerly The Rogue Hermit)

[Upstate Jimmy]

I think Sylvan and Worldy Tutor might be worth exploring. Most builds here have nixed cantrips, but a build that runs them might want the cards. The main issue I see with possibly including them is that this deck doesn't appear to have trouble finding win cons (in fact, many people have cut back on them). Issue number 1 is the mana, which both tutors don't address.

[phazonmutant]

I think Sylvan and Worldy Tutor might be worth exploring. Most builds here have nixed cantrips, but a build that runs them might want the cards. The main issue I see with possibly including them is that this deck doesn't appear to have trouble finding win cons (in fact, many people have cut back on them). Issue number 1 is the mana, which both tutors don't address.

That's a good point. I threw a list together and after a couple of iterations, this seemed pretty solid, actually. Its t1 off of cantrips was good, but the LED-Cantrip-Tutor combo didn't happen very often.

4 Undercity Informer
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Worldly Tutor
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Manamorphose
4 Street Wraith
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Dark Ritual
1 Wild Cantor
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Narcomoeba
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Cabal Therapy
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
1 Azami, Lady of Scrolls

I didn't record statistics, but it seemed like it mulliganned much less and had a fairly equivalent t1 rate. You just have to be very aggressive with the cantrips.

[rufus]

That's a good point. I threw a list together and after a couple of iterations, this seemed pretty solid, actually. Its t1 off of cantrips was good, but the LED-Cantrip-Tutor combo didn't happen very often.

How else does it use the LED?

[GradStudentGuy]

How else does it use the LED?

I think people are missing the point of LED. I am not just playing hands with this deck , I am playing matches against real opponents. LED is key to get past daze and spell pierce.

[nudon]

I did a quick run: (* = could have won if it's Cantor instead of Manamorphose, I count it as a win)

52/100
11*00 01001
00010 01001
01010 00101
11001 01011
10001 11111

10110 01111
10111 01110
00001 01000
11111 00101
01001 01001

Pretty solid list. Our decks aren't that different. Especially my latter one with 4 Infernal Tutor. Both decks have 11+ win con and 36 Mana. To get below 40% T1 win is quite random. I will record 6 and 5 card hand for your list when I have time.

In China, Infernal = Fatties, Inferno = Hotties. Now you see why I use the latter one.


Edit:

Here is 6 card T1 win ratio for Nudon's deck:
39/100
10010 11010
00000 00101
10001 10101
01000 11000
00000 00100

00000 00010
00100 10000
00100 00010
11000 01110
00010 01001


5 card T1 win:
7/100
00000 00000
10000 00000
01100 00000
00000 00000
00000 00000

00000 00000
00000 00000
00100 00000
11000 10000
00000 00000

Put all three together:

1 - (48% * 61% * 92%) = 73%

I think the 5 card one is an abnomaly. Usually it should be 10%+.

Anyway, Chancellor really shines in the 6 card test, at least 5 games it's crucial for T1 win.

Nudan your deck is really solid .

Thanks tianyuan. The results you got are better than what I got. I think each person's different method of play-testing/evaluating also dictates what kind of results you get. Nonetheless, it does explain why I was unable to duplicate some of the numbers you got.

Hey guys,

I was featured in Adam Prosak's article that went up last night (the first Undercity Informer decklist he posted on the article was taken from my blog). We've been talking about the deck for awhile since I mentioned it on his stream. For reference, this was the list that achieved a roughly 30-40% T1 win rate that he mentioned on his article. Since then, there are a ton of changes you guys have made that would probably make it much more consistent than the list I have.

4 Undercity Informer
4 Balustrade Spy

1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Azami, Lady of Scrolls
4 Narcomoeba

1 Cabal Therapy
1 Phantasmagorian

4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Chrome Mox

4 Lotus Petal
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Rite of Flame

3 Manamorphose
3 Pact of Negation
3 Gitaxian Probe
1 Wild Cantor

Definitely not an optimal list. Yeah, I ran with Pact of Negations maindeck, which definitely contributed to the lack of a higher T1 win rate - but you do have many t2 and t3 protected wins with one or two Pact of Negation which was sweet. I'm pretty sure that Rite of Flame needs to be Tinder Wall because they do the same thing, but you can cast a Tinder Wall off of a Summoner's Pact -> Elvish Spirit Guide.

RE: LEDs/Tutor/Wish being in the deck - Do you guys find yourself with too many win conditions in hand? How often are you guys mulliganing? While I included Wish/Tutor initially because Balustrade Spy hadn't been spoiled yet, I went down to the 8 win condition configuration (and took out LED as a result). However, I'm more inclined to include Wish over Tutor (because Wish is probably slightly better if you don't have LED). Joe Lossett's Belcher article calculated that 4 Belcher/4 Wish/2 Warrens is a more optimal build than 4 Belcher/4 Wish/3 Warrens or just 4 Belcher/4 Warrens, so perhaps we could just emulate that with something like 4 Undercity Informer/3 Balustrade Spy/3 Living Wish. Perhaps we could quantify the deck's mana much in the way he does so in the article.

Also, I goldfished Chancellor of the Tangle for a couple of hands and he's great in some situations (especially when you can use him to generate mana, then imprint him on Chrome Mox), but there are many situations when you really do have to pass the turn, and after that, he's just absolutely terrible. If you mulligan down and you have him but can't generate the 4 mana (for example, you can only generate 3 with him) and you're forced to pass the turn, you need two more turns before you can go off again. While I'd like to keep the T1 win % high, perhaps Chancellor sacrifices too much percentage points if we find ourselves not going off T1.

Do you know Adam personally? Chancellor is really good if you've maxed out on the IMS and mana-fixing. If you have more win-cons, it's definitely not as strong. Unless you're running 4x probe, 4x wraith, and 4x manamorphose, I think 8 win-cons is way too little. Right now I have 11 win-cons and it's actually been working pretty well.

[tianyuan2k4]

I think each person's different method of play-testing/evaluating also dictates what kind of results you get.

This one's T1 kill has a very straight forward goldfishing goal. It's either have enough mana + win con or not. Very linear. Just need more test result for reliable data.

I realized yesterday I already tested your list from mtgsalvation. I did a quick fifty 7 card hand goldfish and I got 20/50 (40%) T1 win, but I knew the result varies because average for 11~12 win con should be around 45%~50%. Today's test (52%) proved I am right.

That's a good point. I threw a list together and after a couple of iterations, this seemed pretty solid, actually. Its t1 off of cantrips was good, but the LED-Cantrip-Tutor combo didn't happen very often.

4 Undercity Informer
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Worldly Tutor
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Manamorphose
4 Street Wraith
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Dark Ritual
1 Wild Cantor
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Narcomoeba
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Cabal Therapy
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
1 Azami, Lady of Scrolls

I didn't record statistics, but it seemed like it mulliganned much less and had a fairly equivalent t1 rate. You just have to be very aggressive with the cantrips.

This list seems promising. I will test and post my result tomorrow.

[Ziveeman]

Do you know Adam personally? Chancellor is really good if you've maxed out on the IMS and mana-fixing. If you have more win-cons, it's definitely not as strong. Unless you're running 4x probe, 4x wraith, and 4x manamorphose, I think 8 win-cons is way too little. Right now I have 11 win-cons and it's actually been working pretty well.

Yeah I know Adam from back when he lived in AZ.

I'll probably test a 10/11/12 win-con list tomorrow or later this week when I have time. Looking back, 8 win-cons probably is in fact too little. The advantage of this deck over Belcher is that even if you draw all of the Spies/Informers, it's still much easier to generate the 4 mana than Belcher. Sometimes with Belcher you have to pitch a hand because it contains 4 mana and 3 win cons...but with this deck it's good enough.

[Darkenslight]

I think Deathrite Shaman has a place in this deck, being typically both a permanent mana source and fantastic Imprint material (seeing as everyone is saying that the problem is producing Black mana. However, the larger issue is card-space.

[phazonmutant]

I think Deathrite Shaman has a place in this deck, being typically both a permanent mana source and fantastic Imprint material (seeing as everyone is saying that the problem is producing Black mana. However, the larger issue is card-space.

Deathrite is definitely appealing to randomly draw into against a live opponent. But from what it's felt like in testing, I've never really wanted Deathrite. Pact for Cantor or Pact for Deathrite both fix mana and all Cantor requires is that you have one of your many redundant spells to imprint on Chrome Mox for it to work equally well.

[Holly]

Haven't tested anything so far but a random thought:

Has anyone of you tried to run something with Land Grant (& 1 Bayou)?
While it indeed does suck with the Spy and can cause Belcher to fizzle it would really help with getting started.
I think you most likely have to cut the Spy and play as winconditions something like
3 Informer (which you can use again with Narcamoeba, Tallmen (for Mox Opal)?)
3-4 Living Wish
3-4 Infernal Tutor

or
4 Informer
4 Belcher
3-4 Tutor
But I guess in this case, why not simply play real Belcher..


I guess you could play maindeck informer, wish & tutor,
sideboard Belcher, discard and carpet of flowers. All their gy-hate would be useless and you'd have some amount of discard vs counters..
Of the t1 kill % would drop by some amount but I guess you get some kind of resilence versus blue.

[The Informer]

In order to make the number of win-cons the same as belcher (11), I've removed the infernal tutors and now have the following list:
http://deckstats.net/deck-1885565-65...644d64f8d.html

I tested the deck 25 times and got the following results:
T1 kill: 14, 56%
T2 kill: 3, 12%
T3 kill: 4, 16%
T4+ kill: 4, 16%

Though I didn't keep track, a few of those games I was able to play cabal therapy off a chrome mox as well. Thus, I think the deck has a lot of potential once tweaked further. Granted, deathrite shaman is a thing so those T1/T2 kill rates need to improve. I think reducing infernal tutors really helps too because my hand is not as cluttered.



Thanks, welcome to the Source! Mimeoplasm kill is totally fine (he's actually my edh general) in my opinion. However, one of the benefits of running maniac is you can side out angel and azami since your opponent will be taking out all his removal spells anyways and you have cabal therapy flashback just in case. As pointed out, I don't think signal the clans helps but out-of-box thinking is what this is all about so suggestions are welcomed haha.

Thank you, Nudon, for the welcome and the testing. From my testing yesterday without Infernal Tutors I also got around the same, with a 58% turn one kill out of 50 matches. Having some way to kill Deathrite Shaman will be nice, but Phyrexian Revoker is one I had also thought of with the Living Wish plan. It gets Bolted pretty easily though, so it's hard to let it stick around for a turn, which may be necessary in some cases because of the high mana costs to combo out in 1 turn (8 mana with a Spy and Living Wish in hand in this case).

Right now, I want to figure out the sideboard plan. I don't know how good the Charbelcher sideboard is, but it is appealing because it dodges GY hate. Does anyone who has tested the Belcher sideboard have more ideas on how good it is?

As for outside the box thinking, I think maybe a beatdown sideboard might work as well. It doesn't win on turn 1 or anything, but it will not be expected by an opponent. It just depends on whether we can design an effective one. I'll get back to you after some testing on that one...

[The Informer]

I think Sylvan and Worldy Tutor might be worth exploring. Most builds here have nixed cantrips, but a build that runs them might want the cards. The main issue I see with possibly including them is that this deck doesn't appear to have trouble finding win cons (in fact, many people have cut back on them). Issue number 1 is the mana, which both tutors don't address.

In my testing, these tutors were bad for the reason that they don't put the card in your hand. So all the mana you have left over for the turn empties the mana pool. In my testing, Signal the Clans was superior to these if you are looking for an "in-deck" tutor.

[Barook]

As for name suggestions, what about Cloak and Dagger, since it's all about Rogues and killing out of nowhere?

[Upstate Jimmy]

We should test this card.


http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Ca...verseid=158773

Going off with an extra red or green mana isn't uncommon for this deck, and this could be a viable option for us.

Also, in terms of the beatdown plan, this may be too outside the box but what about Phyrexian Obliterator? Our deck can get to 4 black mana pretty easily, and if he resolves, much of the format is cold to him. Might not be worth it, but something to consider.

[Herjan]

We should test this card.


http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Ca...verseid=158773

Going off with an extra red or green mana isn't uncommon for this deck, and this could be a viable option for us.

I was thinking about Autumn's Veil which is similar (if not better), but pre-board I don't know if we have enough space to play 3-4 copies of the card, and post-board Pact of Negation seems a better choice.

[tianyuan2k4]

That's a good point. I threw a list together and after a couple of iterations, this seemed pretty solid, actually. Its t1 off of cantrips was good, but the LED-Cantrip-Tutor combo didn't happen very often.

4 Undercity Informer
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Worldly Tutor
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Manamorphose
4 Street Wraith
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Dark Ritual
1 Wild Cantor
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Narcomoeba
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Cabal Therapy
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Dread Return
1 Angel of Glory's Rise
1 Azami, Lady of Scrolls

I didn't record statistics, but it seemed like it mulliganned much less and had a fairly equivalent t1 rate. You just have to be very aggressive with the cantrips.

I did a quick test for 7 card hand T1 win
11011 01001
11111 00001
10000 00010
00011 11101
00100 11000

20/50 = 40% If adding mull to 6 card it's probably 60%. The problems with this build during my test:
1) Gitaxian Probe + Street Wraith: They make mull decision difficult, especially when I am only missing one piece and have 2 or 3 free draws in my hand.
2) Worldy Tutor + Free draws: it works, but only two in fifty games. Perhaps need more test for reliable results.

[phazonmutant]

I did a quick test for 7 card hand T1 win
11011 01001
11111 00001
10000 00010
00011 11101
00100 11000

20/50 = 40% If adding mull to 6 card it's probably 60%. The problems with this build during my test:
1) Gitaxian Probe + Street Wraith: They make mull decision difficult, especially when I am only missing one piece and have 2 or 3 free draws in my hand.
2) Worldy Tutor + Free draws: it works, but only two in fifty games. Perhaps need more test for reliable results.

Both those points make sense. It was worth a shot, but I doubt it's actually better than other builds. Thanks for doing the number crunching!

Also, in terms of the beatdown plan, this may be too outside the box but what about Phyrexian Obliterator? Our deck can get to 4 black mana pretty easily, and if he resolves, much of the format is cold to him. Might not be worth it, but something to consider.

I do like the idea transforming into a man-plan. I don't think Obliterator is the card, though. We have relatively few ways to make lots of B mana - the builds right now are tuned to make 1 B and lots of random colors.
One card that I've had my eye on is Tomb of Urami. SI likes it because people generally won't counter your rituals, and then they can't counter Tomb. It does have the problem of needing to get up to 5 mana and because our kill involves creatures, I'm not sure people will actually take out all their removal.

From the SI thread, potentials they've looked at:
- Tomb of Urami
- Tombstalker
- Avatar of Discord
- Phyrexian Negator
- Phylactery Lich
- Death’s Shadow
- Dark Confidant

Of these options, I like Tomb and Bob the most. They even work fairly well together.

--
Re: Gutteral Response and Autumn's Veil - I'm just not excited by those cards because you probably don't have room for them maindeck (and if you do, Pact of Negation would be better), and they also don't stop any graveyard hate postboard.

[tianyuan2k4]

Both those points make sense. It was worth a shot, but I doubt it's actually better than other builds. Thanks for doing the number crunching!

No at all. I love numbers.

Talking about numbers, I was thinking about the best number of wincon to be included in this deck. Assuming you only want to see one or two wincons in your open hand. (Too many wincons means no mana to cast one) I used Magic Probability Calculator from MTGS to calculate this. Note that this only gives you a basic idea of drawing a wincon in open hand. Having a wincon doesn't mean you have enough mana or proper color to cast it.

So here is the table for the 7 card hand:


6 card hand:


Basically it means if you put 8 wincons in a deck, and your open hand has 7 cards, you have 35% chance seeing no wincon, 42% to see 1 wincon, 19% to see 2 wincons, 4% to see 3 wincons.

Now for the best chance to see 1 or 2 wincons in 7 card hand: 11, 12, 13 = 67%

The best for 6 card hand: 13, 14, 15 = 68%

Again, having a wincon doesn't mean you could cast it. This is just mere basic probability data.

[stygian87]

No at all. I love numbers.

So here is the table for the 7 card hand:


6 card hand:

Have you done this data break down for percentages of cycle cards and mana production?

[stygian87]

I'm pretty sure that Rite of Flame needs to be Tinder Wall because they do the same thing, but you can cast a Tinder Wall off of a Summoner's Pact -> Elvish Spirit Guide.

Joe Lossett's Belcher article calculated that 4 Belcher/4 Wish/2 Warrens is a more optimal build than 4 Belcher/4 Wish/3 Warrens or just 4 Belcher/4 Warrens, so perhaps we could just emulate that with something like 4 Undercity Informer/3 Balustrade Spy/3 Living Wish. Perhaps we could quantify the deck's mana much in the way he does so in the article.

Ziveeman The biggest plus to Rite of Flame will is the bonus for drawing multiples but I like Tinder Wall due to Summoner's Pact as well, to go along with that how do you feel about adding more copies of Wild Cantor and dropping 2 copies of Chrome Mox? Joe Lossett did say that the one thing he found was less Chrome Mox's was optimal saying "It is inefficient, and you never want to see two copies in your hand." I don't know if this correlates over to this build but it seems worth the test.