Sorry for the late answer, I only occasionally look up the source these days.
I mostly agree with you. But I think Instigator is still better in many circumstances, even against RUG thresh. By saying "being explosive" I do not only mean "being aggressive", I also mean fuel the goblin engine. And the Instigator is really good at it.
Preparing for rotten tomatoes to be thrown:
I actually think MWM is a generally weak card. The only circumstance it's valid is when you really need a chump block vs a non flying creature after turn 2, like in tight damage races. Other then that it either slows you down turn 3 or it's just 2 mundane 1/1 goblins for 2cc that cannot even attack turn 3. Looking at some popular creatures like Deathrite Shaman, those 1/1 goblins start to look really sad. It only remotely helps goblins by +1 your goblin count. The opponent's deck trying to trade 1v1 is not a valid argument here imho because he will simply save that bolt for more valuable targets like warchief.
Instigator on the other hand puts a creature on the table that needs to be answered. If you have even one card in your hand your opponent won't gamble for ringleader or matron (since they are mostly not played early). Instigator connecting did win me the game more often then not. He will either use spot removal (2cc vs 1cc is not too bad, we risk worse trades in tempo by playing warchief) or use a creature to block. I think the last sentence is the best reason to include a card in an aggro deck and it is what I meant when saying "getting your opponent to react".
When you test the Instigator his strength won't be that apparent because most opponents will use their resources to handle him, he mostly won't connect. But I made the experience that this results in him having less resources to handle other goblins. One way to show it is to play a test game with a buddy, "save" the game at a stage where you play either MWM or instigator (redraw all cards in the same order etc. just switch the two) and see the difference in the outcome.
So I'm trying to say Instigator is imho better against almost all strategies :)
Jim Davis and Max Tietze has been running essentially the same main deck since 2010, and Jim Davis is the one who taught Max Tietze everything about goblins.
Steve Sadin Deck Tech (2010/09/01): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekylBN29TQ0
Jim Davis's Deck (2010/11/07): http://tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=118&iddeck=390
Max Tietze's Deck (2011/02/27): http://tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=5685&iddeck=41133
The only difference is the inclusion of Cavern of Souls, and Stingscourger in place of Goblin Chieftain due to the S&T MU. Stingscourger use to be a 1-off SB card before S&T decks popularized. This is probably the most consistent goblins list, with the only significant change is the SB depending on the meta. This is probably the best list that optimizes the old school mana-denial field-control strategy, without the over reliance on removals. I still think goblins can evolve further into other successful archetypes though, but this is probably the list you still want to use the 4 Ports.
Regarding Rest in Peace, they probably don't want to rely on getting a pure white source at a timely manner with only 1 Plateau and 6 Fetch Lands. Relic of Progenitus makes mulligan easier because of that (you don't need a two card combo). And if the 1 Plateu gets eaten by Wasteland, Rest in Peace is now a dead card. I am not entirely sure why they only have two Krosan Grips but it probably has to do with their mana base. Again, only having 1 Taiga makes it more vulnerable to Wasteland, and only having 1 Taiga and 6 Fetch Lands makes the green source hard to find. However, unlike Rest in Peace, the need for Krosan Grip is less urgent. Krosan Grip is too powerful a card against MUs that demands it, but it is not a card they want to rely on due to the mana base, so two is probably the correct number.
I actually wonder how well this deck would do if I take out 1 Stingscourger and 1 Sharpshooter for 1 Chieftain and 1 Krenko. Too bad graduate school is priority ...
I agree with this analysis. Only thing missing in that comparison is the increased mana cost of Instigator (double red) which actually doesn't fit very well in most Goblins decks mana bases of 14-15 red sources.
On that note, I have been having some serious doubts about Wasteland lately (even more rotten tomatoes, I guess). I have played a lot of Thresh where Wasteland is used routinely on turn two, and that deck can play with 1-2 lands in play. Goblins can't do that at all, it needs to build up. Which means that Wasteland is only useful efter turn three or four, or if the opponent is mana screwed to begin with. The risk of losing tempo yourself by using a Wasteland 'blindly' in the first turns is very high.
I am going to try a zero Wasteland build soon: 14 mountain, 4 cavern, 3 R. port, 3 Instigator, just to see how much I miss Wasteland.
I also play Kiki-Kiji/Settler maindeck, which means I can punish decks that don't deal with Instigator.
I realized that the new goblin from gatecrash Legion Loyalist would be very good alongside Goblin Pyromancer.
If anyone is testing with loyalist he might include 1 or more pyromancers in his list... there is also the possibility of trying a new build with 4 loyalists 4 piledrivers and 2-3 pyromancers, including also skirk prospector because you can sacrifice pyromancer to avoid your goblins being destroyed at the end of turn. Of course it would be difficult to find room for all this cards...
I thought I should give some reasoning for this build. Thalia gives you some MD hate against combo and she can steal games. MWM allows you to stall on the ground. Tarfire gives you a proactive way to shirt down sfm, drs, and delver. Karakas gives you random outs. Krenko helps you win games you otherwise shouldn't.
SB - RiP is a bomb. There are 9 white sources. You should be able to play it. I think it's better than relic because it just turns the gy Off
Pyro is obviously good against any deck that just wants to turn guys sideways, of which there are still plenty.
REB is good against Jace and bug control and Merfolk and is decent against combo.
Needle is good against blade and jace and control and some combo.
Kgrip is fantastic against blade and is playable against SnT. It also is good against control decks.
I think this sb has the field pretty well covered. Anyone disagree? See anything I'm obviously missing?
Could anyone give me a good sideboard for a meta with a good amount of combo, esperblade and some RUG? By combo, I mean storm, sneak and show, and dredge. more storm and sneak and show than dredge though. My build is mono red.
So is the Tietze/Davis list essentially optimized? I'm going to be playing in a big tourney this weekend and I just can't tell whether there are any really good cuts to make or tweaks. That list is just so fucking basic I can't really see anything to change.
I could cut 1 Port for 1 Karakas, maybe cut a fetch for a Taiga.
SB I would definitely replace the Angel of Despair with a third KGrip.
Is Relic really the best GY hate? Being colorless and replacing itself is obviously great. My question is, does the free card really make Relic worth being slow and expensive? Or is the slow and expensive thing less relevant than the replace itself ability?
And is 4 Port really THAT good? It seems like all the Goblins decks doing well in big tournaments these days run 4 ports.
Someone give me a run-down.
On the subject of grave hate. I have liked Crypt a fair amount over time but the more lists I see run with relic the more I am feeling I might run it. The points made a strong in its favor. As for the colourless aspect, lets face it. We are playing decks with on average 12 colourless mana cards, (cavern, port and waste) yea colourless helps. If you do not like paying tho look at tomb as your hate card.
As for ports, you can force plays with them, tap out powerful lands with them and lock down someone with one. Someone drops a Maze? You have an answer. Also think about this, a mana pool will drain at the end of each step so you can force plays. You want to play something in your second main phase that you think the guy will counter? Tap his lands in your attack phase. Just put a fifth counter on Vial and you think he has a STP in his hand? Force a play and make him target something in play before you drop Kiki or Siege.
We are not as dependant on land as some other decks. We can cheat stuff into play and have a good mana curve. Think about going against Zoo and tapping their Taiga. With hope thats one less Tarmogoyf to worry about that turn.
Instead of Angel of Despair the Jim Davis/Max Tietze list needs an oblivion ring. It does exactly the same as Angel and can be our third artifact/enchantment hate from the board. Remember that we can cast the Ring as reliable as Grip. ring is our catch all card and very flexible versus all kinds of decks.
I would also cut one Trap in the SB and add a liege or a chieftain. having nothing versus Plagues in the Jund matchup is really bad. And no, we do not have the space to board in grips versus jund to fight plagues. I would take the Liege as it is bolt and punishing fire and decay safe and survives a double plague.
4 Ports are a must for this control goblins list.
Relics are the way to go with this list that has not so many white sources that can reliably cast a rest in peace on turn 2. the card draw of relic is huge versus the discard nature of Jund decks.
I have been thinking a lot about Vial Goblins lately and my impression is that whenever I had good results with the deck, I had (with 1 exeception) at least 4 Wastelands, 3 Ports and some number MWMs. This, together with the success that other players have with similar decklists, makes me feel like we have already found one of the best configurations of Vial Goblins. However, I'm still sticking to the "there are several good spaghetti sauces"-thought, that someone suggested a while ago, meaning that we do not have a single best decklist, but several configuration that actually work well (at least one other would be the Winstigator/Chrome Mox list that ScatmanX successfully piloted so many times).
However, I can say with confidence that the following cards indeed form a powerful setup:
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Wasteland
3-4 Rishadan Port
10-12 Mountains, Fetchies, Duals
4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
3-4 Goblin Piledriver
3-4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
2 Siege-Gang Commander
3-4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Goblin Stingscourger
1-6 Other cards
To give an answer to your questions:
Replacing 1 Port with 1 Karakas seems like a legit move. However, there are two decks running around where Karakas really shines: Reanimator and Sneak Show. Port#4 could do the job vs those decks too. You can also think of running Karakas in SB (maybe instead of Angel of Despair?).
For what I know we've dicussed the "Angel of Despair vs. Oblivion Ring vs. Confusion the Ranks" issue over and over. We came to the conclusion that Confusion is arguably the best pick. Remember when I tested Oblivion Rings for you? Stick to the red enchantment.
Relic might be the best gravehate vs. Jund and BUG, but if you have access to white (for whatever reason) I'd pick RiP, since it's stupidly strong vs. most other decks where you want GY hate against (Reanimator, Dredge, RUG Thresh, Randomgraveyardgrindingstuff). As for today's meta I would stick to Relic though.
MountainCaverns, Lackey, Go.
If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchanges our apples, we each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange our ideas, we each have two ideas.
On the subject of Angel vs O ring vs Confusion I'm going to have to disagree with both of you and say Angel is the better option vs S+T. While O-ring takes care of whatever they drop in and Confusion is kind of cute at pulling a switcheroo, Angel of Despair takes care of the problem in a much cleaner way than either of those cards. I understand it has the same effect as O ring but I feel like a lot of people are vastly underrating the clock that angel puts on the opponent. I've played against S+T in SCG opens more times than I can count and every time I've showed in an angel I've won the game just by being able to kill them with a 5/5 flyer and some other men before they can rebuild, and with all the card manipulation the deck has its not that difficult for them to do.
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