[Primer] Elves!

[Koby]

Edit:
Pox almost always runs E Plague. A 2/2 thats not a nameable creature type is important.

Is it? I was under the impression that Abrupt Decay and Harmonic Sliver are important here. Or just ignoring this matchup regardless since all of 5 people from 1997 still play it.

[Absolutflipz]

What do you all feel about sideboarding in/out Natural Order?

I feel like the general consensus is to Increase the NO plan, but I almost always fall the opposite way and sideboard out NO.

The thought being that NO is not good against (imo) RUG delver where they run Daze, Pierce, and cheap removal for our guys. The Deathblade decks run Liliana, Supreme Verdict, Meddling Mage, among other lesser hate toward NO. Maybe NO is slightly better against Shardless BUG, but even then it doesn't seem that strong or likely to work out.

Against combo like TES, ANT I think it's too slow, along with the fact that I'd want to bring in cards like Thorn/Thalia and Teeg which are horrible with NO. Sneak and Show, basically the same. Miracles is just miserable cuz NO is a decent answer to getting around Counter/Top, but at the same time they have many counterspells and wraths.

Do I have it all wrong with NO post-board? And further, in conjunction with the above, I find Progenitus underwhelming as an additional NO target to bring in for most of the same reasons.

[Dice_Box]

Is it? I was under the impression that Abrupt Decay and Harmonic Sliver are important here. Or just ignoring this matchup regardless since all of 5 people from 1997 still play it.

Granted we have answers, but that does not make the morph useless. I was not trying to sell the card on morph alone. Also that comment did make me laugh.

What do you all feel about sideboarding in/out Natural Order?

I feel like the general consensus is to Increase the NO plan, but I almost always fall the opposite way and sideboard out NO.

The thought being that NO is not good against (imo) RUG delver where they run Daze, Pierce, and cheap removal for our guys. The Deathblade decks run Liliana, Supreme Verdict, Meddling Mage, among other lesser hate toward NO. Maybe NO is slightly better against Shardless BUG, but even then it doesn't seem that strong or likely to work out.

Against combo like TES, ANT I think it's too slow, along with the fact that I'd want to bring in cards like Thorn/Thalia and Teeg which are horrible with NO. Sneak and Show, basically the same. Miracles is just miserable cuz NO is a decent answer to getting around Counter/Top, but at the same time they have many counterspells and wraths.

Do I have it all wrong with NO post-board? And further, in conjunction with the above, I find Progenitus underwhelming as an additional NO target to bring in for most of the same reasons.

I guess it depends on what target you want with the no. I personally find against SnT that NO and Thar are goddly. Granted that does not stop Gaddock from being useful but I, against these decks, tend to take out 3 Visionary and put in a NO, a NO target and Teeg.

I think the issue with the board as is though is that you want to bring in discard, so NO and therapy eating at your critters can be painful. So I guess the choice is up to you. I don't think I have the experience to have the right answer but I find that when you want that NO, you know it.

[Absolutflipz]

Granted we have answers, but that does not make the morph useless. I was not trying to sell the card on morph alone. Also that comment did make me laugh.


I guess it depends on what target you want with the no. I personally find against SnT that NO and Thar are goddly. Granted that does not stop Gaddock from being useful but I, against these decks, tend to take out 3 Visionary and put in a NO, a NO target and Teeg.

I think the issue with the board as is though is that you want to bring in discard, so NO and therapy eating at your critters can be painful. So I guess the choice is up to you. I don't think I have the experience to have the right answer but I find that when you want that NO, you know it.

I don't understand how NO and Ruric Thar are good against Sneak and Show. I don't think you're resolving the NO at any point so far ahead of where they get to cast Show and Tell or Sneak Attack, such that I doubt you get him out where they take damage using ponder, brainstorm, etc.

Then, against Show and Tell or Sneak Attack themselves, Thar is horrible as they can take 6 to play it and then Grisel./Emrakul take over. And anytime you're bringing/keeping NO while bringing in Teeg that seems pretty bad.

I'd probably: -2 Quirion, -2 Visionary, -1 Symbiote, -3 NO, +4 Discard, +1 Thalia, +2 Thorns, +1 Teeg or something close to that from my list against Sn&Sh

[Dice_Box]

..

Sorry, my mistake. When I think SnT I always think Ominshow. Sorry for that.

[Lemnear]

They perform different functions and both belong in the deck. I currently have a 3/2 split qurion/birchlore

Quirion -

-Untap effects are very important (Heritage Druid, sufficient untapped creatures to attack w/ Hoof)
-Wasteland protection
-Generating additional mana on land-light hands or just generating additional mana when untapping mana elves/dryad arbor (no including Priest as I dont think she should be played)

Birchlore -
-Color fixing for extra Deathrite B activations and ease of SB cards like Thalia, Teeg, Decay
-Additional Heritage to allow faster combo, or earlier, more valuable glimpse
-Morph for 2/2 colorless (much less relevant than other reasons)

I place a higher emphasis on the Untap effects than what Birchlore brings to the table....but anyway, what about discussion of sideboard cards and in/out decisions as opposed to agonizing over the min/maxing of Quirion and Birchlores, which I think is much less significant.

I also disagree on cutting Llanowar completely, and only playing 4x Deathrite as "mana elves" (incld. 4x Gsz = 0) if that was the idea?

The idea was to turn any elf by turn 2 into a mana elf, produce B even if your Bayou got wastelanded and most of the things already mentioned. Playing Quirion and untapping a Birchlore still adds a mana to your Pool even if you have to tap the Quirion too.

Curiosity: why did you only have 5 slots to put in Birchlores/Quirions? There must be a lot more space in the deck.

[.Ix]

At the moment i think that having a mana dork turn one is the best play our deck can do, and that's why i run 3 llanowar(1 llanowar, 1 fyndhorn, 1 mystic), 3 deathrite shaman and 4 gsz into dryad arbor. I cut one shaman to have more chances of producing more mana turn two untapping a llanowar with quirion ranger, which is not always possible with deathrite due to lack of fetches.

This is also where I'm at right now. 4 Deathrite is even worse in Deathrite mirrors where they can just deny our mana all day, and we have no removal to answer theirs. I also tested 3 Birchlore in the main. They are a hell of a lot worse than Llanowar without Nettle Sentinel in play, but they do let us go off earlier occasionally. I have not found making B or W mana to be a problem with 3 DRS, 4 Quirion (against Wasteland), and 9 fetch, so Birchlore mana fixing has not been a real thing so far.

[catmint]

I had similar concerns with deathrite. Not necessarily the opponent disruption our mana development, but also early double activations for mana with untappers might not work. Got convinced by friends and testing that 4 is correct since he has just a lot of other advantages. Besides the obvious hate-factor, in grindy games/stalling situations he is very good and he survives plague or other -1/-1 hate.

[igri_is_a_bk]

I'd probably: -2 Quirion, -2 Visionary, -1 Symbiote, -3 NO, +4 Discard, +1 Thalia, +2 Thorns, +1 Teeg or something close to that from my list against Sn&Sh

I really like my sb strategy against combo:
-3 Visionary, -1 Library, -1 Arbor, -1 V. Shaman, -1 NO, -1 Hoof
+4 Therapy, +2 Thorn, +1 Thalia, +1 Teeg

Why take out good Elves like Quirion in the MU? Sure, they don't play Wasteland, but you're trying to get behind Heritage which Quirion will achieve easier than V. Shaman or Visionary.

Edit: And you can squeeze in Harmonic against OmniTell for another NO.

[Zombie]

I don't agree with the Visionary cut. Sure, she's usually bad, but Glimpse is worse. Therapy demands playing out your hands, Glimpse demands keeping cards (and, importantly, beaters) in your hand. Furthermore both are noncreatures, so keeping both in the deck just makes Glimpse worse. -4 Glimpse, +4 Therapy should be the standard. NO and GSZ do backbreaking things against most combo decks, and want the same thing as Therapy: Dudes on the board. This way your strategy is coherent, instead of contradictory.

[igri_is_a_bk]

I don't agree with the Visionary cut. Sure, she's usually bad, but Glimpse is worse. Therapy demands playing out your hands, Glimpse demands keeping cards (and, importantly, beaters) in your hand. Furthermore both are noncreatures, so keeping both in the deck just makes Glimpse worse. -4 Glimpse, +4 Therapy should be the standard. NO and GSZ do backbreaking things against most combo decks, and want the same thing as Therapy: Dudes on the board. This way your strategy is coherent, instead of contradictory.

I disagree with you completely. Look at the cards you take out against combo. Besides the three Visionary, none of them are complimentary to Glimpse. In other words, your Glimpse chains are very nearly as effective as before. We've all experienced when Visionary is a c-c-c-combo breaker because of the 2 mana, and you aren't likely to get on the Visionary + Symbiote train against any combo deck, which makes it suspect to keep in. And since only the Glimpse half of your combo works with a Teeg in play, which is priority number one, you keep them in.

[Zombie]

Also, I want your list for context. That -1 Library line just hit me with the wtf bat.

[igri_is_a_bk]

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
1 Misty Rainforest
2 Bayou
1 Savannah
1 Forest
2 Dryad Arbor
4 Gaea's Cradle

4 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Glimpse of Nature
3 Natural Order
1 Sylvan Library

4 Deathrite Shaman
1 Llanowar Elves
4 Quirion Ranger
4 Wirewood Symbiote
4 Elvish Visionary
4 Heritage Druid
4 Nettle Sentinel
1 Birchlore Rangers
1 Viridian Shaman
2 Craterhoof Behemoth
//
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Scavenging Ooze
1 Harmonic Sliver
1 Natural Order
1 Progenitus
4 Cabal Therapy
2 Thorn of Amethyst
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Gaddock Teeg

[Zombie]

Deck

A pretty nice list, though I think I'd cut the Rainforest and a Quirion for a second Birchlore (makes Glimpse so, so much better) and a second Forest. Never understood running just a single basic.

[Absolutflipz]

The idea was to turn any elf by turn 2 into a mana elf, produce B even if your Bayou got wastelanded and most of the things already mentioned. Playing Quirion and untapping a Birchlore still adds a mana to your Pool even if you have to tap the Quirion too.

Curiosity: why did you only have 5 slots to put in Birchlores/Quirions? There must be a lot more space in the deck.

Well, here's the list:

3x Deathrite Shaman
2x Elvish Mystic
1x Llanowar Elves
3x Quirion Ranger
2x Birchlore Ranger
4x Nettle Sentinel
4x Heritage Druid
4x Wirewood Symbiote
4x Elvish Visionary
2x Craterhoof Behemoth

4x GSZ
4x Glimpse
3x Natural Order
1x Flex (Crop Rotation, V. Shaman, Ooze, Jitte)

9x Green Fetches
2x Forest
2x Bayou
1x Savannah
1x Dryad Arbor
4x Gaea's Cradle

I know the 3x Deathrite will stick out, and I've gone back and forth between -1 Elvish Mystic +1 Deathrite, but I really value having a reliable mana producer (and multi-mana producer) and Deathrite doesnt always work out, while having 3 still gives plenty of game for his other abilities.

I really like my sb strategy against combo:
-3 Visionary, -1 Library, -1 Arbor, -1 V. Shaman, -1 NO, -1 Hoof
+4 Therapy, +2 Thorn, +1 Thalia, +1 Teeg

Why take out good Elves like Quirion in the MU? Sure, they don't play Wasteland, but you're trying to get behind Heritage which Quirion will achieve easier than V. Shaman or Visionary.

Edit: And you can squeeze in Harmonic against OmniTell for another NO.

This was assuming a current list with V. Shaman in the board. I would take out V. Shaman if it were in the main and leave in a Ranger. I also like keeping 2 Visionaries vs the 1 as I still think it's a great card if the game gets delayed at all as your sideboard pieces are intended to accomplish.

And when you say "trying to get behind Heritage and Quirion", I assume you mean for purposes of most-quickly comboing off, right?

I guess I can see that maybe you do want some number of NO's just to have as a possible I-win button even tho it's going to be harder to get off in time and get off in the face of your own Thorns/Thalia, and Teeg. Do the NO's really work out positively given those things?

Further, thoughts on where NO/Progenitus is very good postboard to warrant an extra NO and the Progen? Underwhelming for me, and 2 sideboard slots is pretty huge if those could be freed up. Open to hear where people have found him much better than the Hoof plan. Is it against no longer very popular Jund or Punishing Fire decks?

[Lemnear]

I'm confused how the opinions in this thread about the optimal number of DRS and mana dorks can vary so much. :/

[Absolutflipz]

I'm confused how the opinions in this thread about the optimal number of DRS and mana dorks can vary so much. :/

My first guess is to venture that everyone understands that Deathrite Shaman is such a powerful card and one of the best one drops ever printed, and an ELF, so "how can't you play 4?!?!?!" Maybe there isn't much thought given to the numbers after that.

And while playing 4x Deathrite may be the right answer, I'm not 100% convinced of it and I definitely don't agree with lists that play 4x Deathrite and less than 9 fetches.

My current playing of 3 just comes from playing matches with the deck and valuing having an extra mana dork that can produce multiple mana in a turn consistently as opposed to a 4th Deathrite given that I think the deck values such an attribute more than the B,G abilities (and yes, being a 1/2 is also relevant). Don't get me wrong, they're also amazing, and still running 3 gives you room to grind out a game with either.

[Kayradis]

4 Deathrite Shaman.

This card is what made the deck Tier 1.

[Koby]

I'm confused how the opinions in this thread about the optimal number of DRS and mana dorks can vary so much. :/

From my own past experience, if the goal is to generate the most amount of mana and emphasize Turn 3, then we should be running at minimum 8 mana dorks (or equivalent, such as GSZ for Dryad Arbor on turn 1). DRS is conditional mana, which is why I refrain from relying on it so much. So, let's do some rudimentary Hypergeometic calculations to help us determine our level of confidence.

Assuming we have an opening hand that contains at least 1 land, at least 1 mana dork, and at least one engine (Glimpse or NO). This gives us 4 "whatever" slots.

With 8 ways to get a turn 1 mana dork, we have 65.4% chance of seeing a mana dork, or about 13 out of 20 games.
With 9 ways to get a turn 1 mana dork, we have 70.0% chance of seeing a mana dork, or about 7 out of 10 games.

Is the 5% there significant?

Moreover, since we're setting the assumption with getting a land (1 of 14 turn 1 mana off land in the deck = 34%) and hitting an engine (1 of 7, or 41.6%) gives us:

[ at least 1 dork, exactly 1 land, exactly 1 engine with 7 in deck ]
8 Dorks -- 9.23% chance of getting this hand
9 Dorks -- 9.89% chance of getting this hand

[ at least 1 dork, exactly 1 land, exactly 1 engine with 8 in deck ]
8 Dorks -- 9.36% chance of getting this hand
9 Dorks -- 10.03% chance of getting this hand

Obvious this is simplified for the scenario of only 1 land and only 1 engine. The point is to demonstrate why 9 dorks is more rewarding rather than 8 dorks.

EDIT:
In case anyone wants to run their own scenario here's some pointers:

Hypergeometric function on Excel needs 5 inputs: HYPGEOM.DIST(success, sample, total in deck, deck size, cumulative=FALSE)
When you're adding more conditions, you need to multiply the probabilities.
When you're figuring out ranges, you need to add the probabilities.

Example:
Probability of 1 mana dork AND 1 land AND 1 engine = P(1 mana dork) * P(1 land) * P(1 engine)
Probability of getting between 1 to 5 mana dorks = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5)

[danyul]

I'm really stupid. Do all those numbers mean you like 3 or 4 DRS? 0-3 Llanowar Elves? I don't math good.