I would cast silence. Then if it gets forced off of a brain storm, cast petal, rite, then in response to daze or something, ritual twice, pay for daze, then cast empty. Obviously this is me assuming the worst, but it seems like a solid hand
I think that would be a great scenario having Silence and the Rituals at instant speed to pay for Daze. For them to Brainstorm (say twice to dig for Force and Daze), then casting both of those counters, that adds 4 to the Storm count. So we are getting 8 more Goblins while still "having" it due to the large ritual count and the Silence.
So it seems like my original thought of just going for it here is more in line with what TES is doing, as opposed to ANT who would probably want to Brainstorm into hate/protection?
If you're hesitant to pull the trigger, TES isn't your deck. In addition to being the best Goblin aggro deck in the format, TES is most definitely a gambler's deck. Saying "12-14 Goblins, go" is quite often the correct play, and a winning play.
With that said, TES really gives you the urge to play Belcher-style "is this the nuts? If not, mull", which is usually wrong, because the 6 or 5 probably won't be that much better, if at all. TES also lacks card advantage outside the combo turn and plays 3 "Dear God why did I draw this ******" Moxes, which makes every card precious.
Also, even if it's not the deck's forte, many slower hands can be negotiated into wins or strong board positions with a bunch of Goblins with enough patience. It's kinda grueling because the deck isn't that well suited for it, but it most certainly can do it.
So be willing to dump Goblins, mulligan only the most atrocious hands (especially while goldfishing), and force yourself to play out long game scenarios because you'll inevitably end up playing those in real games. If you feel like you want more deterministic lines and want to feel more comfortable cantripping, I'd honestly just suggest some ANT variant - Vault Tendrils, 16 cantrip Prosak list, Grim Tutor versions, whatever. All are built to do that stuff better than TES so if those are your natural inclinations, play to them.
And just remember that this deck is in the harder end of the spectrum. Practice makes perfect.
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I definitely see myself pulling the trigger more often then not, and just going for the ~10+ goblin plan if I can do it on like turn 2 safely. The only time I have struggled with this plan was against Elves, when they were able to effectively block/race me while matching my sheer number of creatures. In other cases, I feel like dropping 10+ creatures is very strong and will probably win unless they: Echoing Truth, Tabernacle :(, etc.
I like just going for it, making a slew of dudes and passing. It then puts me in the driver seat and the opponent on the back foot, where they have to really plan out their turns where as I can just turn goblins sideways and get in there.
First off, I have no fucking clue why you just didn't play "Scalding Tarn, go" in your first turn and just save your free stormcount via Probe for turn 2 or 3. Depending on if your opponent slams down a 2cc-card next or not you can decide if you think that you want to go off via Probe + Silence/Ponder + Rituals into EtW (depending on his potential defense) or simply slowroll the game into a Tendrils if he's unwilling to put up some pressure.
making goblins and lean back isn't something that you should see as an desired option. There are enough decks out there with Terminus, Engineered Explosives, Deeds, Batterskulls and crap to spoil your fun.
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That seems like a good option, just playing a nondescript land and passing. I like the thought of just building an unbeatable hand to Tendril them out if they give you time to just sculpt and put no pressure on, but I could also see an argument that the more time you sculpt the more hate they can draw into if they get an idea of what you are doing. If my opponent played a Tarn and passed I would put him on:
1. Slow but hateful Delver hand
2. Show and Tell
3. Maybe High Tide?
4. Storm
5. ???
With the knowledge of their hand you know exactly how you want to play out the next couple of turns with cantrips. Again, I am new to the deck, so I don't know if just saving the free spell for the combo turn is right, if they will naturally reveal what they are on without you wasting a free storm earlier in the game. This also leaves me open to Daze (if I didn't play a land first), but then again that does give some info, slows them down, and takes a counter out of their hand.
I have found that I like blind casting Probe before anything else to see what they are on, which then provides me with information to know what/when to cast and keep off any cantrips. Also helps me if I draw into a different land I want to use to just go for it???
Then explain me why you casted G.Probe turn 1 if you already have a second land in your hand?
I mean, casting G.Probe blind turn 1 is fine, if you fear that you throw your only Rainbow-/Dualland right before the feet of an opponent holding wasteland, but with 2 lands and one being a fetchland, your play is an outright mistake.
If you sit on both, Probe and Silence, you can even trick your opponent into carddisadvantage if you check the coast turn 2/3 and see no counters but Brainstorm, you can start to combo off and the moment he tries to interact by casting Brainstorm (to find a counter), you catch him off-guard with a Silence while BS is still on the stack aka one less card in hand and now he has to respond with his second Brainstorm but has already burned a mana and is forced to find a FoW AND a blue card within the Brainstorm
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I Would 100% of the time cast Probe turn 1. You get extremely positive odds of him not having an answer to a turn 1 EtW, in which case you just outright win. Even if he somehow has an answer, casting the Probe turn 1 is only marginally worse than keeping it.
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The problem is: IF the opponent has any way to interact with you (and that outright possible with a blue fetchland in play), you not only wasted a free stormcount but also revealed, which deck you are on and he can take preparations. It's not unlikely that he opts to drop his Goofy turn 2 in this scenario, if you only show a fetchland yourself. And that moment he's dead.
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We don't know if he has a Goyf. Dropping a Scalding Tarn means literally nothing except that our opponent isn't Belcher or Dredge. What if he drops a CB instead of a Goyf? You just lost the game. Maybe he plays a Hymn? Maybe he kills you on his turn. Maybe he is Show and Tell, where waiting a turn means you're probably going to lose. There isn't a single doubt that turn 1 Probe is the correct play imo.
Your argument doesn't make much sense either, since casting an EtW from your hand is practically unstoppable if you know what your opponent is holding. There is almost no benefit in waiting if you're planning to cast your EtW anyway.
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I can see this being a consideration for holding the spell. If he is on the Delver plan with Goyf in hand, he could possibly put a Goyf on board and not leave open Brainstorm mana if we didn't do anything. This then makes the hand an all in on the Goblin plan pretty good.
That being said, if they were on Belcher or another Turn 1 combo, and they didn't go off, I think I would be ok with waiting for the extra storm count on the combo turn, also leaving up the ability to Silence a mirror match combo during their turn. I do like knowing if they are on the discard plan with some Black deck with Hymn and such, but I think playing Probe turn 1 reveals your hand that you are on combo at that point and a Black deck will almost certainly do the discard spell turn 2, instead of something else to try and disrupt as fast as they can.
I am not sure 100% either way which is right/wrong, I can see situations where both seem correct. That is why I asked also, to see the discussions and help myself learn this deck and these situations which will probably come up A LOT while playing the deck.
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If they are on the Lotus Petal for 3rd mana plan, in response to the Lotus Petal you can Silence them (they are on the play)??? This way you can go off the next turn (your turn 2), to make however many Goblins we said 10 (12 minus 2 from the non Silence during combo turn). Pass to them, their turn 3 they play Show and Tell into Emrakul and pass. We swing with 10 Goblins, they block one, go to 11. Pass to them. They swing, we don't block, lose 2 lands and 4 goblins (9 down to 5). Pass to us, we swing for 5??? and deal damage them down to 6?.... so yea we die.
I think the only way is to have something insane in the sideboard that we can find with the tutor and play on turn 2 (or 3 if we silence) to stop them... but I can't think of anything.
So yes, I don't think we are beating S&T with this hand if they just go for it.
If we draw into Brainstorm we can dig for a Duress?
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Just making sure I am on the right page...
Keep 7 was:
Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe
Top 2 cards from draw were:
Lotus Petal (draw for turn), Ponder.
So turn one you 1st thing play Probe blind and see the Lotus Petal/Sol Land, Land, S&T, Emrakul, whatever....
Probe (S1), Petal (S2), Land, Rite of Flame (S3, RR), Dark Ritual (S4, RRBBB), EtW makes 10 goblins and you pass. They drop a land and pass.
You swing for 10, pass, and during their upkeep Silence them?
I think even if they draw into a Force of Will and they counter Silence and resolve Emrakul, you still can swing in for 9 bringing them to 1. Then sac enough dudes to Emrakul to be able to live through the 1st Emrakul swing and deal lethal the next turn.
Seems like that is a good enough argument to win off a blind Probe T1 instead of saving it. You sold me :)
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